LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Review and forecast

Current trend

Euro continues to fall in price. On Thursday pressure on the pair was caused by US statistics. It became known that number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 311 thousand, which is above the forecast. Growth of US GDP in Q4 amounted to 2.6%. This index was by 0.1% lower than expected; however, it does not decrease interest of market participants to the USD.
Today investors will be focused on European macro-statistics, the most important of which will be consumer confidence index and IFO in Eurozone and consumer price in Germany
In the afternoon US statistics will be released. Investors are waiting for the data on personal expenses for February.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3705, 1.3670 and 1.3610.
Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3795 and 1.3830.
On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm that downward movement may continue. MACD histogram is in the sale area and its volumes are increasing.

Trading tips

If current downtrend continues, it is recommended to open sell positions after breakout of the level of 1.3705 with the targets of 1.3670 and 1.3610.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: Review of forecast

Current trend

The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the USD. The pair has already reached four-month highs. The “bulls” had tested the level of 0.9295 but the pair failed to consolidate above this level , and started correction. The Australian dollar was supported by the statement of the chairman of Australian Reserve Bank Glenn Stevens, who said that Australian economy shall look for new ways of development, which will not depend on mining industry. Investors interpreted this news as a positive signal and started to buy Australian currency. Note that important news releases, which can affect the rate of AUD/USD, are not scheduled for today.
Support and resistance

On the four-hour chart technical indicators show continuation of the ascending movement. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are increasing, forming a buy signal.
Resistance levels: 0.9295, 0.9345, 0.9395 and 0.9440.
Support levels: 0.9245, 0.9210 and 0.9150.

Trading tips

If current ascending trend continues, it is recommended to open buy positions from the current price level with the nearest target of 0.9295. Breakout of the level of 0.9295 will open the way to 0.9345.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Обзор NZD/CHF

NZD/CHF, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. After strong rise the pair has been corrected under Tenkan-sen line, which is now a resistance level (0.8672). The closest support level is Kijun-sen line (0.8614).



NZD/CHF, D1
Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. However, downward correction wasn’t long enough and Tenkan-sen line is still a support level (0.8599). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.879.



Key levels
Support levels: 0.8614, 0.8599.
Resistance levels: 0.8672, 0.8790.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart we can see a correction of the upward movement, although daily chart confirms the Bullish trend. Targets for the long positions are 0.8672 and 0.8790.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/JPY: technical analysis

Current trend
Throughout last week “bearish” trend dominated except minor rise on Monday. The pair had reached local highs of 1.3875, and then started to decline, reaching the lows of 1.3704 at the end of the week.Today, preliminary consumer price index in Eurozone has become known. The index was below the forecast, which caused slight decline in the pair. It is worth noting that some important events are going to happen this week: ECB will determine interest rate and US data on jobs outside agricultural sector will made public. Technical indicators show that downward movement can continue.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.3765, 1.3800, 1.3835 and 1.3875.Tthe main target of the “bulls” is breakout of the level of 1.3800 and consolidation above this level. Support levels are 1.3735, 1.3700 and 1.3675.

Trading tips
It is recommended to open long positions above the level of 1.3800 with the target of 1.3875. It also makes sense place limit sell orders at the level of 1.3875.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 31 March - 4 April 2014

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej8NDBcrMxk&index=40&list=PL0AkDoT530vyjQ_utOoMufN3NfndBfCqg

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

The pair USD/JPY is trading at the top limit of the trading channel at the level of 103.44. If this level is broken out in the near future, the Yen will resume the decline. It seems that monetary policy of the Japanese Central Bank, aimed to fight off deflation and high exchange rate of the national currency is successful. According to the latest data, unemployment in Japan continues to reduce breaking new records: The rate fell to 3.6%. Consumer prices are also improving. In February CPI excluding food and energy has reached 0.8% against 0.7% in January.
If US Fed raises interest rate in the nearest time, the Yen will continue to drop in price, as interest rates in two countries differs significantly, making the USD more attractive for investments.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is the upper limit of the trading channel (103.44). Support level is 102.25 (moving average with the period 200).

Trading tips

It is advisable to place long positions after breakdown of the level of 103.44 with stop loss at 103.15 and a target of 104.20.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Speech by Janet Yellen did not provide support to USD “bulls”

Current trend

On Monday morning the pair slightly declined amid negative data on British mortgage lending: number of approved applications reduced by over 6 thousand. However at the opening of American session the pair went up, breaking down key resistance level of 1.6660. Purchasing manager index in the US fell to the level of 55.9 points against the forecast of 59.2 points. Additional pressure on the USD was caused by the speech of Janet Yellen. The head of the US Fed noted that despite unfavourable economic situation in the USA, reduction in volume of assets purchase will continue. British statistics, released earlier today, was weak. Manufacturing PMI fell to 55.3 points, failing to confirm the forecast of 56.7 points. The US data on construction sector and business activity index in manufacturing sector will become known later today.

Support and resistance

The main catalyst of movement this week will be the release of Non-Farm Payrolls. According to statistic agencies, this index is going to be positive. Meanwhile, GBP/USD continues to trade in the wide uptrend.

Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6550, 1.6470 and 1.6400.
Resistance levels: 1.6700, 1.6770, 1.6810 and 1.6900.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open buy positions with profit taking at the level of 1.6810. Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.6000 with profit taking at the level of 1.6810.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD

USD/CAD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are getting closer under the cloud prior to the trend reversal pattern formation. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level (1.1039). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.1007.



USD/CAD, D1

On the daily chart we can seen an invert image. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are getting above the cloud and going to form a signal to sell. Meanwhile the price chart has entered an ascending cloud; Chinkou Span line is below the price chart. Senkou Span A (1.1058) line is the closest resistance level. The lower border of the cloud will be a support level at 1.0898.



Key levels

Support levels: 1.1007, 1.0898.
Resistance levels: 1.1039, 1.1058.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we can see a correction of the downward movement, although daily chart confirms the Bearish trend. Targets for the short positions are 1.1007 and 1.0898.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Pound takes a break

Current trend

This Tuesday the pair was trading with low volatility due to the weak stats from both countries. In USA fundamental data from construction sector and PMI had been lower than predicted. UK had answered with the lowering of Manufacturing PMI to the level of 55.3 points.
Now the pair is trading below key resistance level of 1.6660, pound is under pressure of another weak stats from UK. United States will publish ADP Employment Change and Factory Orders, which can strengthen Dollar for a while. We wouldn't expect this effect to last long because of the Janet Yellen's comment. The head of FRS stated the decline of economic growth.

Support and resistance

We expect slow rise up to the level of 1.6810, however the pair will need strong impetus.
Support levels: 1.6600, 1.6550, 1.6470, 1.6400.
Resistance levels: 1.6660, 1.6700, 1.6760, 1.6810, 1.6900.


Trading tips

Pending buy orders can be placed at 1.6600 with take-profits at 1.6800.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. Under the pressure of the Dead Cross the price has broken through Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines, the latter becomes a resistance level at 0.9234. The nest obstacle for the price on its way down will be the upper border of the cloud at 0.9212.



AUD/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. Tenkan-sen line (0.9176) is the closest support level. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9428.



Key levels

Support levels: 0.9212, 0.9176.
Resistance levels: 0.9234, 0.9428.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we’ve got a signal to sell, however on the daily chart this movement is a mere correction. Target for the short-term sales is 0.9212.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies