LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

XAG/USD: Review of forecast

Current trend

Quotes of XAG/USD have been growing this week. The rise in price of precious metals in general and of silver in particular was triggered by investors desire to wait out the period of instability in the world economy. At the moment the source of the instability is the fact of tension between Russia and the West over the fate of Crimean peninsula.
Another fact having positive effect on the price of silver is poor indices of American economy. Recall according to the data released last week, US unemployment rate increased by 0.1; from 6.6% to 6.7%. This fact gives ground to the US Fed to leave easing measures at the current level.
Yesterday, XAG/USD partly lost positions gained over a week, as geopolitical concerns around Crimean crisis have slightly weakened. Quotes of silver did not go below the level of 21.07.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 21.45 (yesterday’s lows), 21.78 (moving average with the period of 100 days), 21.17 (highs of 24.02.2014).
Support levels: 21.07 (yesterday’s lows), 20.78 (moving average lines with the periods of 100 and 50 days), 20.18 (61.8% Fibonacci).
On the daily chart technical indicators give mixed signals. Stochastic is directed upwards. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; however its volumes are decreasing, which give a weak sell signal.

Trading tips

Market is in uncertainty. Attention today shall be paid to US reporting. If the price consolidates above the level of 24.45, it makes sense to open long positions with the target of 21.78. If the price falls below the level of 21.07, it is recommended to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 20.78.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Strong labour market statistics will give a boost to the rise in Pound

Current trend

At the end of last week the pair GBP/USD significantly dropped, reaching key support level of 1.6600; however this level was not broken down. Later the quotes slightly went up to the level of 1.6660. Weakening in the British currency was caused by the decrease in investors’ interest to the Pound and unfavourable British statistics. Decline in demand was also caused by the fact that the Pound is overbought. Strong impetus is required to boost the rise in Pound, such as the increase in interest rates or reduction in program of troubled assets purchase.
Today volatility in the market is unlikely, as there will not be any important British news. While the following US economic statistics will become known: industrial output for February and capacity utilization, as well as business activity index in industrial sector of New-York for March. On Tuesday the most important event will be the speech of Mark Carney, who will make a statement on future monetary policy of the Bank of England.
Note also that US Fed decisions on interest rates and volume of quantitative easing program will be known this week. There is no doubt that the key interest rate will be left at the previous level, but the question is whether US Fed will continue to reduce volume of program or not.

Support and resistance

Meanwhile the Pound does not have either strength or support for further growth, at the same time the American dollar is not strong enough to draw the pair down. British labour market statistics will become known this week, according to forecast it is going to be positive. Strong British statistics can provide support to the Pound and the pair will go up to the local highs. In the medium-term the Pound is likely to continue growth amid strong macro-economic data. It is possible that the key resistance level of 1.6810 will be broken down and the pair will soar up to 1.6875 (1.6900).

Support levels: 1.6600, 1.6570 and 1.6470.
Resistance levels: 1.6600, 1.6700, 1.6770, 1.6810, 1.6875 and 1.6900.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to place pending buy orders above the level of 1.6600 with profit taking at 1.6810 (1.6875).



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: General analysis

Current trend

The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the American dollar. At the moment the AUD has reached the upper limit of the trading channel at the level of 0.9086. if this level is broken down, the rise may reach the level of 0.9150.
Australian authorities continue to fight against budget deficit in the country. Government has sold debt securities for the amount of 7 billion AUD with 12 years maturity and the yield of 4.27%. According to preliminary assessment, budget deficit may reach 47 billion AUD; therefore, monetary authorities shall seek additional funding.
Analysts believe that due to slowdown in economic growth rate, Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rate unchanged. Interest rate can be raised not earlier than 2015.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 0.9086 – the upper
The nearest support level is 0.8943- lower limit of the trading channel.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 0.9086 with protective order at 0.9045 and a target of 0.9150.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Analysis and forecast

Current trend

On Monday afternoon the bulls managed to raise quotes of the pair EUR/USD above resistance level of 1.3915. Next target of the ascending movement is the level of 1.3935. Bad reporting from Europe and positive US statistics failed to decrease investors’ interest to Euro.
Consumer price index in Eurozone fell by 0.1% against the previous value, to the level of 07% on annual basis. Therefore, inflation rate is far from the target level of 2%, set by ECB. Volume of US industrial output has increased by 0.6% in February against expectation of 0.1%. Capacity utilization also increased to the level of 78.8% against prediction of 78.6%.
Investors are waiting for the US fundamental news, which will be released on Wednesday: payment balance for Q4 last year and key interest rate.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.3935, 1.3965 and 1.4000.
Support levels: 1.3915, 1.3880 and 1.3845.
On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed sideways, indicating the lull in the market. MACD histogram is above the zero line, its volumes are decreasing; therefore it is too early to expect the formation of downtrend.

Trading tips

Buy positions are recommended after breakdown of the level of 1.3935 with the nearest target of 1.3965. If this level is broken down, the pair will be able to go up to strong resistance level of 1.4000. In case of downtrend sell positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 1.3880 with the nearest target of 1.3845.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: Analysis and forecast

Current trend

Gold has always been a safe haven for investors; that’s why they tried to buy this metal amid situation in Crimea. Investors’ activity provided support to gold. Following the referendum the situation has calmed down a little, as reaction of EU and the USA was more moderate than expected. Due to uncertainty investors closed down part of long positions, which led to decline in gold quotes. At the opening session on Monday the price of gold had reached autumn highs of 1390.00, and after that the price went down. Investors will wait for the monetary policy decisions by US Fed. The latest American data has not been too favourable’ however it is expected that US Fed will still reduce volume of bond purchase for another 10 billion USD, which will not add much pressure on the precious metals.

Support and resistance

At the moment the price is moving near the level of 1360.00, which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci. If this level is broken down, the price will go down to support levels of 1354.00, 1350.00 and 1345.00. Resistance levels: 1362.00, 1369.00 1375.00 and 1385.00.

Trading tips

It is advisable to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1360.00, with taking profit at 1340.00. Long positions can be opened above the level of 1369.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD

GBP/USD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the price is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from below; current cloud is descending. The pair has slowed down and been corrected above Tenkan-sen line, which becomes the closest support level (1.6596). Resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 1.6631.



GBP/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are getting closer prior to the trend reversal pattern formation. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart; current cloud is still ascending. The pair has broken down Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the latter becomes a resistance level (1.6624). The upper border of the cloud is the next support level (1.6462).



Key levels

Support levels: 1.6596, 1.6462.
Resistance levels: 1.6631, 1.6624.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we can see a correction of the downward movement, on the daily one — the beginning of the trend reversal. Further movement of the price will be determined by the breakdown of one of the levels: Tenkan-sen (1.6596) or Kijun-sen (1.6631). Target for the pending sell orders is 1.6462.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: General analysis

Current trend

Swiss Franc continues to strengthen against the USD. One of the reasons of decline in the pair is instability in the political situation of Ukraine and possibility of sanctions, which the US and EC threat to take against Russia. Nevertheless, situation can change dramatically as soon as US monetary authorities will tighten monetary policy and raise interest rate. Such decision will help the USD regain losses and go up against world currencies.

Support and resistance

In the current situation support level is 0.8700; if this level is broken down, Swiss France will continue to strengthen. The nearest resistance level is the upper limit of the trading channel - 0.8768.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 0.8768 with protective order at 0.8740 and a target of 0.8875.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: the pair is still in the uptrend

Current trend

Yesterday before announcement of the outcome of the meeting of US Fed the pair traded with low volatility. Meeting results have been predictable. Janet Yellen adheres to the existing policy of phasing out QE3 program. This news provided support to the USD and the pair fell to the key support level of 1.3830. Nevertheless, despite considerable decline the pair EUR/USD continues to trade in the uptrend. Speeches of Mario Draghi, chairman of ECB and US labour market data will be known today.

Support and resistance

The pair has reached the bottom limit of the ascending channel (1.3830) and now may experience correction up to the level of 1.4000. Although minimization of QE3 program continues, US statistics is not encouraging. On the other hand, European economy is growing although the risk of decline in investors’ demand remains because of the fact that Euro is significantly overbought.

Support levels: 1.3830, 1.3720, 1.3650 and 1.3470.
Resistance levels: 1.3950, 1.4000 and 1.4120.

Trading tips

It is recommended to lace buy orders with profit taking at the level of 1.4000. Short pending positions can be opened from the levels of 1.4000 and 1.4120 with the target of 1.3900 and a short stop-loss.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD

XAG/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is still falling. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 20.71. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 20.45.



XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are crossing above the cloud, giving a signal to sell. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from above; current cloud is still ascending. The pair has broken down Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the latter becomes a resistance level (21.12). The upper border of the cloud is the next support level (19.76).



Key levels

Support levels: 20.45, 19.76.
Resistance levels: 20.71, 21.12.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the pair has broken down the cloud, giving a strong signal to sell. On the daily chart we can see the beginning of the trend reversal. Targets for the short positions are 20.45 and 19.76.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Demand for the USD is increasing. The question is how long for?

Current trend

Increasing demand for American currency amid next stage of curtailing QE3 program in the USA has been putting pressure on the pair. Over the last few days the Pound has lost more than 200 points. On Thursday bears continued to keep the pair under pressure and the pair consolidated at the support level of 1.6470. The pair is also affected by continuing reduction of the volume of assets purchase in the USA, which takes place despite weak labour market statistics
Today the data on net lending in the British public sector will become known; while US news is not scheduled for release. Therefore, investors’ sentiments will cause changes in the pair.

Support and resistance

Given significant rise of the American currency and the fact that the Pound is overbought, we expect that the pair will continue downward movement. Now we can see that the pair has reached the bottom limit of the downward channel and the key support level of 1.6470 (local highs of December 2013). From this level the pair may experience to resistance level of 1.6570. After that the price may fall to the target of 1.6350.

Support levels: 1.6470, 1.6350 and 1.6300.
Resistance levels: 1.6570, 1.6600, 1.6660, 1.6700 and 1.6740.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open pending sell positions at the level of 1.6570 (1.6600) with profit taking at the level of 1.6350.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies