LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: US GDP vs. speech by Mark Carney?

Current trend

Yesterday morning the pair went up reaching the level of 1.6620. However, following the release of negative statistics from US labour market the pair GBP/USD returned to the previous level of 1.6700. This morning the pair was supported by positive data on the UK housing price index: this index amounted to 9.4%, exceeding the forecast of 9.0%.This fact has been a strong catalyst enabling rapid rise in the pair. Another important event will be a speech of the head of the Bank of England, Ben Bernanke today. He will evaluate economic situation in Great Britain. Acceleration of economic growth may lead to changes in the monetary policy. In addition, some American news will also become known, such as: revised GDP, consumer sentiment index and index of sentiment of purchasing managers. According to preliminary data economic growth rate in the USA is slowing down; GDP for Q4 is going to be revised from 3.2% to 2.6% Positive assessment of British economic situation by Mark Carney and negative revision of the US GDP have led to the rise in the pair up to the recent local highs of 1.6810.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6540 and 1.6470.
Resistance levels: 1.6730, 1.6810 and 1.6900.

Trading tips

It is advisable to place pending long positions to buy above the level of 1.6810 with profit taking at the level of 1.7000. Pending sell orders can be placed from the local highs of 1.6800 with profit taking from the local highs with profit taking at the level of 1.6600 and a short stop-loss.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: US economic growth rate has slowed down

Current trend
Last Friday European currency significantly strengthened against the USD due to positive European statistics. Inflation rate in February remained at the previous level, unemployment rate was stable and consumer price index rose only by one tenth percentage. Nevertheless, the pair was supported not only these indices but mostly by rapid rise in retail sale in Germany in January (2.5% against forecast of 1.2%). The pair EUR/USD has soared up to the local highs of 1.3820, later the pair rolled back to 1.3770 and consolidated at this level. High volatility is not expected today due to lack of important macro-statistics from EU. American news on private expenditures, business activity index and expenses on construction will be worth of paying attention.

Support and resistance
Following rapid growth the pair shifted to the phase of correction. However, if strong catalyst provides support to the pair, Euro can break down key resistance level of 1.3820.
Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3630 and 1.3600.
Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3820, 1.3900 and 1.4000.

Trading tips
It is advisable to place pending orders to buy from support level of 1.3700 with profit taking at the level of 1.3820. Buy stop orders can be placed at the level of 1.3850 with profit taking at 1.4000.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 3-7.03.2014

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Pound regains its losses

Current trend

On Monday the pair GBP/USD traded with low volatility. British data on mortgage lending and manufacturing activity index had not affected exchange rate of the national currency. However, strong data on US business activity index added momentum to American currency and the pair GBP/USD went down to support level of 1.6660.
Today, British currency has started to regain losses and the pair GBP/USD is trading at the level of 1.6690. However, demand for American currency is gradually increasing due to the positive data from manufacturing sector and the rise in consumer confidence index. The data on business activity index in the British construction sector will be of interest today. If this index justifies negative expectations, the pair will continue to decline.

Support and resistance

In the medium-term the pair GBP/USD will move in the upward channel, but it will be difficult for the pair to reach local highs. It is likely that following the rise to the key resistance level of 1.6810 the pair will decline to the strong support level of 1.6540.
Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6540, 1.6470 and 1.6400.
Resistance levels: 1.6730, 1.6810 and 1.6900.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open pending short positions from resistance levels of 1.6730 and 1.6810 with profit taking at the level of 1.6490.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: analysis and forecast

Current trend

On Monday currency pair USD/CHF corrected after significant decline last Friday caused by positive European statistics and negative preliminary data on the US GDP for Q4 last year. GDP fell to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.6%. In the result the pair lost over 100 points and reached the lows since 2011 at the level of 0.8776.

Support and resistance

Correction in the pair was stopped at the level of 0.8840 (middle line of “Bollinger bands”). This level seems the key one and if it is broken down, the pair may go to 0.8865, 0.8890 and 0.8915. However, it is more likely that the pair will fall to 0.8810 and 0.8795 reaching the lows of 2011.
On the four-hour chart technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are in the overbought zone. They are intersecting and in the near future will do down.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price with profit taking at 0.8795. Long positions with the target of 0.8890 can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 0.8840.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Review and forecast

Current trend

On Tuesday March 4 American dollar slightly strengthened against Euro amid news that Russian military forces are not planning to start military actions in Ukraine. During the day Euro fell by 50 points against the USD. Today market participants will focus their attention on preliminary GDP and retail sales of Eurozone. ADP forecast of US employment will be at (16:15 GMT+3) will be also of interest. According to forecast GDP in Eurozone will remain at the previous level of 0.5%, while retail sales will increase to 0.8%, which is above the previous level of -1.6%.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3745, 1.3780 and 1.3825.
Support levels: 1.3720, 1.3690 and 1.3646.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are moving in the sideways, indicating lull in the market. MACD histogram is above the zero line, but its volumes are decreasing, which a signal of recline in the rate. It is likely that the price of the pair EUR/USD will continue to decline. If downtrend continues, it is recommended to open sell positions from the current level with the nearest target of 1.3690. Breakdown of the level of 1.3690 will open the way to 1.3646.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: General analysis

Current trend

During morning trading session the price of the pair tried to consolidate above the highs of Tuesday at the level of 0.8400. Investors’ positive sentiments and risk appetite were caused by the decrease of possibility of military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. NZD is also supported by tough monetary policy of the Bank of New Zealand. According to New Zealand’s data world prices for the main export products of the country have increased by 0.9%, which can force monetary authorities to change interest rates ahead of schedule.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance levels: 0.8400 (yesterday’s highs), 0.8425 (highs of 28 February), 0.8500 (psychologically important level), 0. 8544 (high of 22 October).
Support levels are 0.8352 –0.8342 (lows of March 3 and 4) , 0.8323 ( 50.0% Fibonacci) 0.8323 (61.8% Fibonacci) 0.8242 (lows of 20 February).

Trading tips

Technical indicators give mixed signals. On the daily chart MACD histogram gives a buy signal. Stochastic lines are prepared to intersect from top to bottom very close from oversold zone, giving a sell signal.
It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of уровня 0.8425 with protective orders at 0.8400 and a target of 0.8500.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD:Review

Current trend

The pair GBP/USD is still in the sideways channel demonstrating sluggish movement. Yesterday the “bulls” tries to overcome the level of 1.6742. In the morning, exchange rate went up due to the forecast of growth of the British economy and positive PMI in the service sector. During American session the Pound continued to strengthen amid poor data on British labour market by ADP.
Attention today should be focused on the interest rate decision of the Bank of England and changes in the volume of program to purchase troubled assets. Although these indices are the key ones for the British economy, most experts agree that they will remain unchanged.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance levels are 1.6742 (yesterday’s highs) 1.6768 (highs of 28 February), 1.6822 (high of 17 February). Support levels: 1.6700 (psychological level), 1.6639 (yesterday’s lows), 1.6600 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), 1.6535 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement).

Trading tips

On the daily chart indicators MCD and Stochastic give a buy signal. Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.6742. Short positions are recommended below the level of 1.6700. It also makes sense to place limit orders to sell at the level of 1.6800.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: General review

Current trend

Japanese Yen continues to decline against the USD. During today’s Asian session the price was able to break through the moving average with the period 200. If the USD manages to maintain at this level, the Yen may continue to decline.
Experts believe that such rapid decline was provoked by aggressive measures of the Central Bank of Japan, which has had two objectives. The first one is to overcome deflation, and the second one is to weaken national currency by 20% in order to support national exporters. Meanwhile, politicians of Europe and Asia expressed their discontent because devaluation of national currency gives Japanese manufacturers competitive advantage for promotion of their products in the world market.
It is possible that Yen will reach the level of 110.00 by the end of the summer provided that at the next meeting in April Central Bank of Japan will confirm continuation of the soft policy. The USA has chosen a different way, continuing to reduce assets purchase program, making the USD more attractive for investments. Note the difference between interest rates of the two countries. In Japan the rates are much lower than in the USA, which adds attractiveness to Japanese currency.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 102.52 – upper limit of the trading channel.
Support level is 101.20 – bottom limit of the trading channel.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 102.60 with protective orders at 102.20 and a target of 104.60



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Overview

Current trend

During the trading session on Thursday the currency pair EUR/USD sharply went up by more than 100 points. The rise was provoked by the statement made by chairman of ECB Mario Draghi. He said that in the near future European Central Bank does not plan easing of the monetary policy. ECB also decided to leave interest rate at the record low level of 0.25%. Amid this news Euro has broken down number of resistance levels and reached the highs since November 2011. Some support to the American dollar was provided by statistics. It became known that number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 323 thousand against expectations of 338 thousand. Investors today will be mainly guided by the data on new jobs outside agricultural sector of the USA.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.3900 and 1.4000.
Support levels: 1.3800, 1.3750 and 1.3610.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart technical indicators show the rise in exchange rate. Bollinger bands are diverging, which confirms a chance of uptrend. MACD histogram is above the zero line and its volumes are increasing, giving a buy signal. If current trend continues, it is recommended to open long positions from the current price with the nearest target of 1.3900. Breakdown of this level will open the way to the level of 1.4000.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies