LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
At the opening of the American session gold has broken important resistance level of 1235.00. If the price of the precious metal manages to consolidate at this level, the growth might reach the level of 1270.00.
The main reason of decline in gold quotes at the end of 2013 was the decision of the US Fed to reduce quantitative easing programs. In addition, demand for gold in India, which is the main consumer of gold, is decreasing, as the economy of this country is demonstrating signs of regression. Meanwhile, experts give optimistic assessment to potential of gold, expecting that gold will go up. 15 analysts, surveyed by Bloomberg, believe that gold is likely to grow despite the fact that hedge funds managers expect the decline.

Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is the local highs of 1232.00. Support level is 1237.00.

Trading tips
It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1237.00 with protective orders around 1230.00 and a target of 1260.00.



Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD

GBP/USD, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is trying to consolidate below it. The closest resistance level is Senkou Span B line (1.6297). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.6357.



GBP/USD, D1
Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from above; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. After long rise the pair has been corrected under Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, the latter has become a resistance level at 1.6410. The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be the upper border of the cloud at 1.6217.


Key levels
Support levels: 1.6357, 1.6217.
Resistance levels: 1.6397, 1.6410.


Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the price has broken down the cloud, forming a signal to sell. On the daily chart the cross of the price chart and Chinkou Span line will be a signal to open short trades. The targets for the sell positions are at the levels of 1.6357 and 1.6217.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 7-10.01.2014

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: uptrend will continue

Current trend

This week the pair has traded in the uptrend, rising by almost 200 points. Last night the pair USD/CAD has reached the highs, which has been recorded last time in May 2010. Currently the price is at the upper limit of the ascending channel from which correction may take place. There are no signals of trend reversal.

Support and resistance

The nearest support levels are 1.0760, 1.0740 and 1.7006; the latter one coincides with the level of 236% Fibonacci, which is also the main target of the “bears” for downward movement. The level of 1.0800 is the key level of the “bulls”, which will open them a way to new peaks.

Trading tips

Correction is likely to reach the levels of 1.0740 and 1.0700. At these levels it makes sense to place take profits of the short positions, stop loss is advisable at the level of 1.0830. Limit buy orders are recommended at the level of 1.0740.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: the pair will go South to the level of 1.3300

Current trend

At the beginning of this week the pair is trading with low volatility. Positive data on labour market and retail sales in Germany has supported European currency preventing the pair from the fall to new lows. Nevertheless, significant pressure on Euro is provided by complicated situation associated with inflation in Europe where statistic agencies predict new deflation. ECB has left key interest rate at the lowest level; however if situation does stabilize, the bank is prepared to decrease interest rate for deposits up to the negative values. In the USA investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of FOMC meeting. In addition, release of European retail sales index and unemployment rate will be of interest as well.

Support and resistance /b]

Although positive data on retail sales in Europe can provide support to the pair and trigger the rise up to resistance level of 1.3700, in the medium-term the pair EUR/USD will continue to decline to support level of 50% Fibonacci (1.3300).

Support levels: 1.3580, 1.3520, 1.3400, 1.3300 and 1.3100.
Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.3350. Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3700 with profit taking at 1.3350.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: USD will continue to rise

Current trend

Yesterday the pair slowly went up despite positive statistics of the US labour market. The “bulls” do not want to give up, and increased demand for the Pound maintains the pair above the level of 1.6300. Today the pair GBP/USD has already reached the level of 1.6470 and continues to grow in anticipation of announcement of the interest rate and volume of assets repurchase in the UK. Pace of economic growth in the UK is slowing down, which has been confirmed by the decline in the volume of industrial output and retail sales in Q4 2013. The data on the US number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will be known today, which is expected to decline.

Support and resistance /b]

Moderate demand for British currency will enable the pair to maintain positions for a short time; however at the end of January trend reversal is expected. Thorough attention shall be paid to the US labour market: the tendency of decline in unemployment may give additional reason to reduce economic stimulus programs. In the medium-term the USD is expected to rise sharply; in February the pair may decline to support level of 1.5920.

Support levels: 1.6320, 1.6200, 1.6100 and 1.5920.
Resistance levels: 1.6470, 1.6540 and 1.6600.

[b]Trading tips

It is recommended to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5950. Pending orders to sell can be placed at the level of 1.6540 with profit taking at the level of 1.5950.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD

XAG/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming Dead Cross reversal pattern. Under the pressure of the Cross the pair has broken down the cloud, however its flat bottom become a magnetic level, so the pair will be consolidating around it until the end of the week. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 19.59. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a support level at 19.38.



XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have almost merged under the cloud. Chinkou Span line is following the price chart, current Kumo is descending. The pair is trading within a wide sideways channel. Lower border of the cloud is the closest resistance level at 20.28. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a support level at 19.10.



Key levels

Support levels: 19.38, 19.10.
Resistance levels: 19.59, 20.28.

Trading tips

The pair is trading within a sideways channel. Pending sell orders can be placed below the level of 19.38.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general analysis

Current trend

The price of crude oil Brent has been falling since the beginning of this year. If international sanctions against Iran have been lifted, black gold will drop in price even further. Additional pressure on the Brent rate was caused by the US data on the increase in gasoline stocks by 6.2 billion barrels and the rise in the inventories of distillates by 5.8 billion barrels. One the reasons of the increase of fuel reserves is associated with the bad weather, which led to the cancellation of most international flights and abandoning of using personal vehicles.
At the same time oil quotes were supported by tense situation in Libya, where Energy Minister threatens to stop supplies if foreign companies do not stop buying oil from the rebels at the below market price. Price dumping can lead to the reduction of oil production and interruption of delivery, which will add confidence to the “bulls” at the commodity market.

Support and resistance

The instrument continues to trade in the downtrend. Quotes of Brent have reached the bottom limit of the trading channel at the level of 106.16. The nearest support level is 108.17.

Trading tips

Short positions are recommended after breakdown of support level of 106.00 with protective order at 106.30 and a target of 105.25.



Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls can weaken the USD

Current trend

This year the USD was able to regain positions against Euro. On the daily chart downward channel is being formed; however today, the pair has pushed off from the bottom limit of the channel and is rising. The rise was triggered by the positive European statistics: volume of industrial output in France increased by 1.3%, European GDP is expected to reach the level of 0.3%. Obviously, the pair will be affected by the data on number of jobs outside agricultural sector in the US. Experts expect reduction in number up to 196 thousand, which may lead to temporarily weakening in the USD.

Support and resistance

Support to the pair is provided by the bottom limit of the channel (1.3524) and Fibonacci retracement 50% (1.3593). The nearest resistance level is at the level of 38.2% Fibonacci( 1.3664), near which is located the middle line of Bollinger bands indicator. In case of breakdown of this level, the price can go up to the upper limit of the channel (1.3817).

Trading tips

As a trading strategy it is recommended to open long positions at the current price with stop-loss at 1.3524. In case of ascending movement stop-loss shall be moved to the breakeven zone, until the target of 1.3817 is reached.



Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: the pair continues to weaken

Current trend
Last Friday the pair had reached the level of 105.34, however following the news from American labour market it started to decline sharply The USD fell because of the poor data on jobs outside agricultural sector. By the end of the trading week the pair USD/JPY fell to the level of 104.00, losing over 100 points within a day. However, the decline has not stopped at this level: last night at the opening of the Asian session the pair fell to the level of 103.30, which is a strong support level.


Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 103.70, 104.00, 104.70 and 105.00. The nearest support level is 103.30. This level becomes the key level for the bears and breakdown of this level will open the way to support levels of 103.00 and 102.50.

Trading tips
It is most likely that the pair will continue to decline. Short positions are advisable below the level of 103.30, while pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 104.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies