LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: trade balance deficit has weakened Yen

Current trend

The pair USD/JPY is growing today due to the negative Japanese stats. Trade balance deficit has reached the level of 1,29 trillion yen. From one hand, increase of the import indicates the growth of the demand first of all demand for energy products. From the other hand, capital inflow from retail sales decreases, affecting national economy.
Today’s US FOMC decision on QE3 program will determine further movement of the price. Although many experts doubt that Bernanke will take the responsibility of program curtailment and leave t to his successor.

Support and resistance

USD/JPY is trading around middle MA of Bollinger Bands indicator (103.00). The breakthrough of this level will open the way for the new highs at 103.30 and 103.70 (upper line of Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci level 100%). If the Bears win, the price will fall down to the level of 104.40. On the four-hour chart technical indicators give controversial signals. Bollinger bands are turning down. MACD histogram is going to cross zero line from below and give us a signal to buy. Stochastic lines are directed upwards.

Trading tips

Long positions with targets at 103.70 can be opened above 103.00. Pending sell orders can be placed at 102.80 with take-profits around 102.40.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: red rag for the “bulls” or sweet honey for the “bears”?

Current trend

The pair cannot determine movement direction. The pair GBP/USD has been declining for a few days and at the same time experiencing long-term upward corrections. Yesterday the British currency weakened amid negative data on the retail price index and indices of transfer and consumer prices in the UK. The pair fell to the level of 1.6220, however at the end of the trading day it regained 50 points and consolidated at the level of 1.6300.
The key event of today is the decision on QE3 program by the US Fed. If the regulator makes changes in the monetary policy, demand for the American currency will rise sharply; however it is not expected that the pair will fall drastically. It is likely that the pair will gradually decline to the targets of 1.5880, 1.5440 and 1.5300. Plus to the American news the data on the British labour market is also expected.

Support and resistance /b]

Today the pair GBP/USD will trade in the wide sideways channel. The US economic statistics give cause to open short positions and wait for the long-term decline in the pair. However, we should not forget that Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen are strong supporters of soft monetary policy. So, red rug for the bulls or sweet honey for the bears? We will know the answer in the nearest future.

Support levels: 1.6260, 1.6200, 1.6100, 1.5880 and 1.5750.
Resistance levels: 1.6340, 1.6400 and 1.6465.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it is recommended to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5880.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: technical analysis

Current trend

Last night gold fell in price, reaching the lows of the summer at the level of 1215.00. Next target of the “bears” will be breakdown of this level and decline to the level of 1180.00. Although technical indicators give mixed signals, in general they show sideways movement. Stochastic lines are horizontal, being slightly below the medium line. The signal line and histogram of MACD are in the negative zone; volumes of histogram are not growing any more.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is at 23.6% (1225.00) of Fibonacci retracement. Next resistance levels will be: 1235.00, 1245.00 and 1250.00. Key level of the “bears” and support level is 1215.00.

Trading tips

It is advisable to place short positions after consolidation of the price below the level of 1215.00; however the pair will need additional momentum in order to break down this level. Long positions can be opened above the level of 1230.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: positive US statistics will strengthen the USD

Current trend

Following the decision of the US Open Market Committee to reduce quantitative easing program to 75 billion USD, the pair EUR/USD sharply widen the range of fluctuations up to 150 points. It became known that starting from 2014 the US Fed will monthly purchase secured bonds for the amount of 35 billion USD and government bonds for the amount of 45 billion USD. Member of FOMC said that the launch of phasing out of QE3 is associated with the improvements in labour markets and acceleration of economic growth in the country. Ben Bernanke said that curtailing will be gradual but not necessarily even. Successor of Ben Bernanke Janet Yellen fully supports measures taken by the US Fed. Interest rate are going to be left at the low level for a long time, unemployment is going to be reduced by 5.5% by 2016.
Attention today shall be paid to the data on initial claims for unemployment benefits in the USA. If the index falls, bears will get additional momentum.

Support and resistance /b]

If the data on the US labour market confirms the forecast, the USD will receive additional support and will probably break down support level of 1.3650, and then may soar up to 1.3580. In the medium-term the USD is going to strengthen amid increasing demand for the American currency and US strong economic indices. The target for the few first months of 2014 is — 1.3300.

Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3580, 1.3400 and 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.6340, 1.6400, 1.6465.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking around 1.3400-1.3300.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD

XAG/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above within the cloud; the red line is directed steeply downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud is descending. The pair has broken through the cloud and is still falling. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 19.51. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a support level at 18.96.



XAG/USD, H4, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are getting closer under the cloud. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is descending. After a small correction the pair is going down once again. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level at 19.79. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a support level at 18.48.



Key levels

Support levels: 18.96, 18.48.
Resistance levels: 19.51, 19.79.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the breakdown of the cloud is a signal to sell. Targets for the short positions are around 18.96. On the daily chart we can see a correction of the Bearish trend, although reversal signals haven’t been formed yet.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Pound is stubbornly holding positions

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair strengthened on the positive data on British labour market. According to ILO estimates, unemployment rate fell by 0.2%. The pair went up, reaching resistance level of 1.6400. However, following the announcement of the US Fed’s decision on monetary policy, volatility in the GBP/USD was high and the pair traded in the range of 1.6480-1.6340; however the Pound finally gave way to the USD and the pair went down.
Today, British Pound has declined and reached the level of 1.6320. However, the currency does not wish to lose positions and trend may change after the publication of the following fundamental data from the UK: external surplus, GDP for Q3 and net borrowings of the public sector. Economic growth in the UK is accelerating and on Wednesday the rating agency Fitch has confirmed the level of AA+ for the UK.

Support and resistance /b]

If British statistics is positive, the pair will continue to trade in the sideways channel, testing recent highs. Otherwise, support level of 1.6320 will be broken down and the pair will go to 1.6200 and 1.6100.

Support levels: 1.6320, 1.6260, 1.6200 and 1.6100.
Resistance levels: 1.6400, 1.6430 and 1.6465.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to place short positions with profit taking at the levels of 1.6200-1.6100.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[forex_edo]

I think for this weekend, we should take relax because there will a great party in Christmas Eve and New Years Eve..
And prepare for new years with new spirit as well..

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend
Ever since the US Open Market Committee adopted the decision to reduce quantitative easing programs from 85 billion USD to 75 billion dollars, the chart of the pair NZD/USD has been demonstrating downtrend.
However, technical analysis shows a chance of reversal and further upward movement. Bollinger bands are directed downwards, while the price chart has broken down medium line of the indicator, forming a buy signal. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; it has recently crossed the signal line from bottom to top, forming a buy signal.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 0.8180 and 0.8148.
Resistance levels: 0.8220, 0.8255 and 0.8286.

Trading tips
If downtrend continues, upward correction will be possible. In such case we recommended to open long positions from the current price with profit taking near 0.8250-0.8255.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Bearish trend development

Current trend
Last Friday the pair continued to go down slowly amid fundamental facts. Rating agency S&P downgraded the rating of EU from the highest AAA to AA+ with the stable forecast, which could not but affect the rate of European currency. At the end of last week the pair reached the level of 1.3620 but managed to consolidate below resistance level of 1.3700.
Important European news is not scheduled for the release today; therefore in the morning we will observe sideways correction in the range of 1.3700-1.3620. At the same time the US indexes of personal income and expenditures and consumer sentiment index will become known today.

Support and resistance
It is likely that the air will continue to decline to support level of 1.3620 in case of favourable US economic data. In the medium-term the pair will decline to the levels of 1.3300 and 1.3100.

Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3520, 1.3400 and 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830.



Trading tips

It is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.3300.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 23-27.12.2013

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k560Z9usjYM&list=PL0AkDoT530vyjQ_utOoMufN3NfndBfCqg&index=28