LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: demand for the USD will grow before the FOMC meeting

Current trend

At the beginning of the week the British currency has repeatedly approached level of 1.6450, however the “bulls” failed to push the currency above this level. On Tuesday the pair pulled back following publication of the retail sales volume in the UK, which was twice as worse as the forecast, amounting to 0.6%. Later, favourable data on business activity index in construction sector pushed caused the rise in the pair. The American dollar almost does not respond to important releases, standing still in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Fed. The meeting is scheduled for 17 December and discussion is going to be hot: another delay in curtailing of the QE3 can cause collapse of the USD.
Attention today shall be focused on the British PMI in the service sector, which is expected to decrease by 0.4%. US trade balance and business activity index in the service sector and the data on construction sector will also become known today.

Support and resistance /b]

If British PMI meets negative forecast, the pair will rapidly go to strong support level of 1.6260 (highs of October). If the index rises, we can expect breakdown of the key resistance level of 1.6450 and continuation of the ascending movement. Technical indicators show the beginning of decline. MACD indicator demonstrates significant divergence.

Support levels: 1.6300, 1.6260 and 1.6200.
Resistance levels: 1.6450 and 1.6600.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it is recommended to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.6260.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD

XAU/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are getting closer, but are both horizontal. However the pair was able to break through the levels of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and consolidated below the cloud. Although upward impetus wasn’t enough to break into the cloud; following the price, Chinkou Span line wasn’t able to cross the price chart and is now below it. Current Kumo-cloud is still descending, but Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines are getting closer. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line at 1233.08. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud at 1241.51.



XAU/USD, H4, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, and the price is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. Tenkan-sen line and Kijun-sen lines have become support (1234.68) and resistance (1277.98) levels respectively.



Key levels

Support levels: 1233.08, 1234.68.
Resistance levels: 1241.51, 1277.98.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the signal to open long positions will appear after the cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines or the price chart and Chinkou Span line. However, daily chart doesn’t confirm the reversal of the trend. Targets for the short positions are still 1220.00.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Unified European currency is recently trading in the narrow trading channel of 90 points. Yesterday the price repeatedly broke down moving average with the period 200; however, bears did not consolidated success and the price returned to the previous level of 1.3590.
The meeting of European Central Bank, which will be held today, will announce interest rate. It is assumed that this indicator of the monetary policy will remain at the previous level of 0.25%. Preliminary estimate shows that inflation in November will rise from 0.7% to 0.9%, so ECB is unlikely to raise the rate in the circumstances, as it will increase inflationary pressure.
Meanwhile EU news shows that GDP growth rate has slowed down in Q3. The decline is associated with poor economic data of the largest economies of EU, such as France and Germany. Therefore, interest rate is expected to remain low for a long time.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level on the four-hour chart is 1.3625. Support level is the bottom limit of the range at the level of 1.3521.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions in case of breakdown of the level of 1.3625 with the target of 1.3730 and stop-loss near 1.3590.



Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD

XAG/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below under the cloud, forming a reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below, current cloud is descending. After long fall the pair has broken through the levels of Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen, but couldn’t consolidate above them. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 19.49. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a support level at 18.96.



XAG/USD, H4, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed downwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 19.59. One of the previous extremums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 19.10.



Key levels

Support levels: 19.10, 18.96.
Resistance levels: 19.49, 19.59.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we’ve got a signal of the trend reversal from Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. However, long positions should not be opened unless Chinkou Span crosses the price chart. Daily chart doesn’t confirm the reversal, but indicates a slowdown of the fall.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

On Thursday the currency pair GBP/USD weakened and reached weekly lows of 1.6296. In his yesterday’s speech before the Parliament, British Finance Minister George Osborne said that economic redevelopment has not been completed yet. He nevertheless raised GDP growth forecast to 1.4% for this year and to 2.4% for the next year. However, investors did not share optimism of the Minister and the Pound continued to decline. On the other hand, the USD was supported by positive statistics. According to preliminary data, US GDP can amount to 3.6%, which is higher than the forecast by 0.6%

Support and resistance

At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 1.6330. It is not expected that it will go below the level 1.6300 in the near future. Investors will not take risk before the news from American labour market will become known. However, if the number of new jobs outside agricultural sector rises again, quotes can fall to the levels of 1.6280 and 1.6230 or even up to 1.6290.

On the four-hour chart technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands are directed downward; bottom line of the indicator provides support to the price chart. MACD histogram has moved to the negative zone, forming a sell signal. Stochastic lines, on the contrary, are rising.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions from the level of 1.6300 with the target of 1.6230. If the price reaches the level of 1.5360, it is advisable to open long positions with the target of 1.6430



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Despite positive statistics on the US labour market last Friday, the pair EUR/USD rose to the level of 1.3706, following slight rollback to the level of 1.3620. Neither the decline in unemployment rate to 7.0%, nor the rise in jobs outside agricultural sector and in consumer sentiment index was able to provide support to the American dollar. Euro completed last week above the level of 1.3700.
Although at the opening trading session of this week the pair continued to grow, it was not able to exceed resistance line of 1.3713. Technical analysis shows that downward correction may reach the level of 38.2% Fibonacci (1.3647). The price had left the channel; however later went back into the channel; there is a candle Doji, indicating further decline in price.


Support and resistance
Resistance to the further growth will be at the summer highs of 1.3713. Support levels are 1.3674 and 1.3647.

Trading tips
As a trading strategy I would recommend to open short positions with the target of 1.3647. It also makes sense to place limited sell orders at the levels of 1.3713 and 1.3735.



Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 9-13. Dec 2013

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkUIAXWKGfw&list=PL0AkDoT530vyjQ_utOoMufN3NfndBfCqg&index=26[/youtube]

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: Yen is under pressure of negative stats

Current trend

This Monday the pair USD/JPY has reached six-month highs at 103.39. The weakening of the Yen was determined by the negative fundamental data from Japan. Revised GDP of the third quarter dropped to 0.3%, much lower than predicted, and annual indicator fell to the level of 1.1% instead of 1.9%. Moreover, manufacturing index has decreased to the level of 9.6 points, showing pessimistic sentiment of major Japanese enterprises. From the other hand, Dollar can be supported today by November’s US small business index, which will probably rise up to 92.7 points.

Support and resistance

Macroeconomic background won’t let the pair to be corrected. USD/JPY is going to rise up to the resistance levels of 103.70 and 104.00. Technical indicators confirm the possibility of an upward movement. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD histogram is in positive zone, its volumes are steady. Stochastic lines are in overbought zone, but haven’t formed a signal to sell yet.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at current price with targets at 103.70.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The British Pound has strengthened positions due to uncertainty of future US monetary policy. Eurozone does not demonstrate good performance either: the pair EUR/USD is trading in the downward channel, indicating that investors give preference to the British currency. Attention today shall be focused on trade balance in the UK: deficit is slowly reducing. It is expected that volume of industrial output will grow, but can be below previous value.

Support and resistance

Technical analysis shows that the pair GBP/USD will continue to trade in the ascending channel because of the high demand for the Pound. The signal line and histogram of MACD are above the zero line. The nearest resistance level is 1.6549. Support level is the lower limit of the channel (1.6367), near which medium line of “Bollinger bands” is located.

Trading tips

In the long term it is recommended to buy the Pound. In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 1.6549, the pair can reach the top limit of the channel (1.6624). Above this level pending sell orders can be placed. We do not rule out possibility of correction decline to support level of 1.6367, which can be triggered by short-term reaction to today’s US and UK statistics.



Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: review

Current trend

Crude oil Brent rate is growing amid favourable Chinese statistics and due to expectations that US oil inventories will go down. The level of retail sales in China has increased by 0.4%. Despite a slowdown in industrial output and investments in China, investors are still optimistic about economic growth of the country. Brent is supported by the experts’ forecast of decline of the commercial oil inventories in the warehouses of the USA: volume of stock will fall by 3 million barrels.

Support and resistance /b]

Support levels are the local lows of 108.50 and 107.50. The first resistance level is 109.85, next after it is 110.40.

[b]Trading tips

If analysts’ prediction about reduction of oil inventories proves to be true, Brent rate will grow. In such case it makes sense to open long positions with the target of 110.40.
As an alternative scenario we can assume that strong support level of 108.00 will be broken down and downward movement can reach the levels of 107.50 and 107.00.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies