LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: technical analysis

Current trend

In the middle of this month the pair reached the local highs of 1.0526, but failed to go higher up and fell to the level of 1.0415. At the moment the pair is trading near the level of 1.0465, which coincides with the level of 23.6% Fibonacci. On the hourly timeframe a pattern “Triangle” has been formed and the price is prepared to break down one of its sides. Technical indicators give mixed signals. Stochastic is in the medium zone and both of its lines are directed downward. MACD histogram has crossed the zero line, giving a buy signal. Moving average lines with the periods 20 and 50 are showing growth.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 1.0475, which will be followed by 1.0500, 1.0500 and 1.0526; the latter one is the key level of the “bulls”. Support levels: 1.0440, 1.0430 and 1.0415.

Trading tips

At the moment there is no clear trend in the market. Short positions can be opened below the levels of 1.0440 and 1.0415. Long positions are advisable after consolidation of the price above the level of 1.0475.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: euro is going up

Current trend

The pair EUR/USD is still regaining its losses after FOMC Minutes publication. Euro is supported by the preliminary data on German business climat index, which has risen up to 52 point in November. The same index of Eurozone has also risen up to 51.5 points. From the other hand, Dollar is supported by the positive statistics of US labour market. Unemployment claims has dropped down to 323 000 despite the forecasts.

Support and resistance

The pair is testing middle MA of Bollinger Bands at 1.3485. If this level is broken through, the pair will go up to the levels of 1.3525 and 1.3570. Otherwise, the price will drop to 1.3410. On the four-hour chart technical indicators give controversial signals. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. MACD histogram has crossed the signal line from below. Stochastic lines are directed sideways.

Trading tips

Long positions with targets at 1.3570 can be opened if the pair consolidates above 1.3485. Short positions with targets around 1.3410 can be placed at 1.3450.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD

XAG/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line, they are both directed downwards. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. After long fall the pair has been corrected above the Tenkan-sen line, which becomes a support level at 19.88. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 20.24.



XAG/USD, H4, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 20.60. One of the previous extremums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 19.33.



Key levels

Support levels: 19.88, 19.33.
Resistance levels: 20.24, 20.60.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we can see a correction as a part of the upward trend. Daily chart confirms the Bearish movement. It is a good opportunity to open short trades with targets at 19.88 and 19.33.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD

NZD/USD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The price has broken through the cloud but been corrected above the red line after the fall. Tenkan-sen (0.8184) and Kijun-sen (0.8258) lines have become support and resistance levels respectively.



NZD/USD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen. The pair has entered the cloud, which lower border becomes a support level at 0.8123. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud has reversed from ascending to descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.8264.



Key levels
Support levels: 0.8184, 0.8123.
Resistance levels: 0.8258, 0.8264.


Trading tips
On the four-hour chart we can see a correction as a part of downward trend. It’s a good opportunity to open new short trades with targets around 0.8123. On the daily chart the price has entered the cloud; it is not advised to open long-term positions.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: euro will drop to 1.3100

Current trend
At the end of last week European currency strengthened against the USD despite poor economic statistics in most of European countries. Business activity index in the manufacturing sector of France fell below the level of 50 points. It is just Germany economy which is dragging EU. Economic data from Germany was above expectations. High rate of European currency impedes economic recovery in number of the countries, including Greece. It is possible that at the beginning of 2014 the country will need another tranche.

High volatility in the pair EUR/USD is unlikely today due to the lack of fundamental data from Europe and USA. In the medium-term Euro may go down because of rumors about the lowering of rate on deposits up to the negative value. Investors’ interest to the USD can be increased in case of phasing out of QE3, which according to experts’ estimates, can be introduced in the first quarter of 2014.



Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.3410, 1.3300 and 1.3210.
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3700 and 1.3830.


Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.3300 (1.3210).




Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 25-29.11.2013

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD

XAU/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below, current Kumo is still descending. After long fall the pair has been corrected above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, the latter has become a support level at 1251.78. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud at 1263.48.



XAU/USD, H4, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, however the uprising correction hasn’t reached the red line. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. Tenkan-sen line (1260.76) remains a resistance level. Support level is expected to be at 1222.44 (previous lows of Chinkou Span line).



Key levels

Support levels: 1251.78, 1222.44.
Resistance levels: 1260.76, 1263.48.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the signal to open short positions will appear after the cross of price chart and Chinkou Span line. However, daily chart doesn’t confirm the reversal of the trend. Targets for the long positions are still 1222.44.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: American currency is likely to strengthen

Current trend

Following significant growth last week the pair GBP/USD has corrected downward. The decline was triggered by the data on mortgage lending in the UK (forecast:45.2 thousand, actual value:42.8 thousand.) Meanwhile the USD was supported by the news about agreement on oil delivery expansion between Iran and USA.
Today the pair is trading in the narrow channel of 1.6140-1.6170. Market volatility will be added by the following fundamentals events: speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney and the meeting of the Parliament. Important US construction sector statistics will be also released.

Support and resistance /b]

It is likely that the price will repeatedly test resistance level of 1.6260 but will not succeed in it and reverse downward. Strong catalysts are required in order to break down key resistance level. Favourable US macro-economic data can cause movement in the pair to support level of 1.6000. In the medium-term the pair will go down to the level of 1.5850. MACD indicator on the daily chart demonstrates divergence, which is a sign of trend reversal.


Support levels: 1.6100, 1.6000, 1.5920 and 1.5850.
Resistance levels: 1.6200, 1.6260 and 1.6300.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it is recommended to place sell orders with profit taking near the levels of 1.5920-1.5850.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general analysis

Current trend

Crude oil Brent is trading in the narrow range of 111.61 - 110.32. Oil market participants try to reduce risks since in accordance with preliminary information US reserves of oil products will increase again. If this forecast is confirmed, uptrend may weaken. Geopolitical factor shall be also taken into account: Iran has coordinated its nuclear program with the leading counties of the world. Therefore, volumes of oil production in the Persian Gulf will not decline. This fact reduces the risk of late delivery of “black gold”.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show that uptrend will continue and the only obstacle is resistance level of 111.61. Breakdown of this level will open the way to 112.00 and 112.45. The level of RSI has reached overbought zone, suggesting a chance of correction. Support level is 110.39.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 110.39 with the target of 108.20 and protective order near 110.50.



Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: investors are reluctant to buy USD

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair continued to go up slowly, not paying attention to the EU problems. Leaders of ECB are planning to reduce interest rate on deposits to the negative value. Greece may need another tranche; economic growth rate of the leading European countries is declining. Only Germany is dragging up EU economy. Despite these facts investors continue to buy European currency and maintain long positions. On the other hand, despite favourable statistics on the US construction sector American currency continues to weaken. The USD is under pressure from preliminary index of consumer confidence: forecast: 72.2 points; actual figure: 70.4 points. Today final index of consumer confidence will become known both in the USA and Germany.

Support and resistance /b]

The pair encountered strong resistance at the level of 1.3600 (236% Fibonacci line). Accumulated European negative facts shall result in the decline up to 1.3300. In the medium-term the target level of decline is 1.3100.

Support levels: 1.3530, 1.3410 and 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3700 and 1.3830.

[b]Trading tips

At the moment it is advisable to place sell orders with profit taking at the levels of 1.3300 and 1.3100.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies