Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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29 AUGUST 2013: OIL HITS SIX- MONTH HIGH

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Oil prices hit a six-month high as shares fell on fears of a military attack on Syria. Especially emerging markets assets were hit hard and world shares slid for a second day in row. Investors were seeking safe haven investments and Gold has been shining over the last few days. Gold prices reached USD 1430, but fell back to 1418 an ounce. Brent crude reached USD 117 a barrel on Wednesday morning, but fell back to 115 levels.

Neighbouring Turkey, which has stated its willingness to support a military action against the Assad-regime without approval from the UN security Council, is one of the emerging markets hardest hit by the uncertainty. Both the Turkish Lira and Indian Rupee fell to new record lows against the Dollar. The USD has traded steady against the Euro at 1.3336 , but has fallen below 98 Yen a Dollar against the Japanese Yen, trading at 97.63.

Even if the real effects on the markets on an eventual hit against Syria remain uncertain, Oil analysts are speculating that Oil prices could jump as high as USD 125 a barrel. New York crude, NYMNEX, was trading at the highest level seen in a year when it jumped to USD 111. It has since fallen back to below USD 110.

Worries over Syria largely shrugged off investor’s concern about euro zone bank lending contracting in July. This highlighted the euro zone’s nascent recovery and might keep pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain an expansive monetary policy. The British Pound slipped both against the Dollar and the Euro. Bank of England reaffirmed its attention to keep interest rates low until 2016. The condition for a rise in interest rate is, according to new Governor, Mark Carney, that unemployment falls to 7%, a similar goal set by the US FED.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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03 SEPTEMBER 2013: SEPTEMBER IS GOING TO BRING TURBULENCE TO CURRENCY MARKETS.

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Following the results of yesterday's trading session, the European stock markets showed positive dynamics. The French CAC index which has grown by 1.84%, became the leader of growth. The stock market in the USA was closed in connection with the Labor Day celebrations.

This morning, support to the world markets was given by positive data from China. The index of business activity in the production sector of China, counted by the national bureau of statistics of the country, grew in August to 51 points comparable to 50.3 points the month before. The similar index counted by HSBC bank, grew in August to 50.1 points in comparison with 47.7 points the month before.

Statistics coming from other countries had, in general, mixed characters. The index of business activity in the production sector of Germany grew in August to 51.8 points in comparison with 50.7 points the month before. Analysts expected index growth to 52 points. In France, the similar index didn't change in comparison with the previous month, and made 49.7 points that coincided with expectations of analysts. As a whole, in the Euro zone the index grew to 51.4 points in comparison to 50.3 points in July, however, growth to 51.3 points was expected.

This data was giving support to the Euro during the trading session. As a result, EUR/USD pair opened the day on a level of 1.3211, grew to 1.3226, and then was rolled away to a day minimum of 1.3183, having finished the trading session nearby.

It is necessary to realize that September will be a very important month for the currency markets: all investors returned from summer holiday, trade volumes returned to normal, and the economic calendar is full of very important events. Amongst them, elections in Australia, appointed to September 7; increase of the consumer tax in Japan; the solution of the question on a ceiling of the national debt of the USA; elections in Germany (on September 22) and, naturally, FOMC meeting on monetary policy, planned for September 18-19. It will have the greatest value for currencies, and the current week will help investors to be defined, whether to wait from the regulator turning of the program of stimulation.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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04 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE SYRIAN FACTOR REMAINS DOMINATING IN THE MARKET

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

The Syrian Factor Remains Dominating in the Market

News lines are already glistening with various headings.

Limiting factor for the world markets is the quite intense international situation concerning Syria. As it became known, the U.S. President Barack Obama got support of a number of key figures in the American congress in a question of drawing a military blow to Syria. The vote on this matter in the congress will take place next week.

In addition to this, on Tuesday morning there were messages that ballistic missiles were tested in the Mediterranean Sea. The news at the time provoked speculative growth in the Oil market, even in spite of the fact that as a result the Pentagon declared that rocket tests aren't connected with possible operations in Syria, as they were already planned a long time ago (together with Israel).

The price for Brent reached 115.68$ per barrel, and the price for Light was on a level of 108.54$ per barrel. This morning, we can see Brent traded on a price of 113.78$ per barrel, and Light on a level of 107.54$ per barrel, just with a slight decrease.

The EUR/USD pair also became a victim of market fears, which supported sales. The release of data on business activity in the manufacturing industry of the USA became an additional factor of pressure. So, the currency pair from the level of opening at 1.3188 dropped to a minimum of 1.3143 and finished the trading day closely to 1.3165.

The Euro zone will publish a series of data today on business activity in the services sector. The indicator can continue to show growth, maintaining hopes of investors of a more aggressive speech from the head of the European Central Bank during a press conference after the meeting. In that case it is possible to wait for a kickback of EUR/USD from 1.3150, with probability of breakdown 1.32 and the further purpose on 1.3230.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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05 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE BANK OF JAPAN LEFT MONETARY POLICY WITHOUT CHANGES

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Asian stock markets are not receiving any accurate impulses for long-term movement in the market, that is why indexes in general are moving in a different direction. Today we also can see multi-directional dynamics in the market. The worse indexes are looking so far like the index of continental China SSE, the Australian ASX, and also Japanese Nikkei.

Today's meeting of the Central Bank of Japan ended with the regulator deciding to leave the current monetary policy without change, having raised an assessment of the state of the economy for the first time in 2 months. There have already been offers from some board members to make the target rate of inflation more flexible, and not to go so strictly with the rate on 2%. The Japanese Yen practically didn't react to these statements, having continued to bargain under level 100 against the American Dollar, and the stock market started decreasing gradually. Meanwhile, the hi-tech exporting companies, which are most sensitive to a rate of national currency, today mainly grew, so Sony, Pioneer and Toshiba add about 1.2%.

In the meantime in the USA, the stock market finished yesterday’s trading session with an increase in the price of the main indexes. The reasons for that were the improvement of macroeconomic realities in the Euro zone and the USA, and also an increase in demand for shares of auto makers and the hi-tech companies. The revised data on gross domestic product of the Euro zone confirmed 0.3% growth of the economy of the region in the 2nd quarter, having a strengthened impression of the favorable data published the other day on the industry in Europe. In the USA, according to the report of the Beige book, the industry grew, and consumers began to spend more for entertainment, in particular, on tourism.

The vote of the Committee of foreign affairs at the Senate, in favor of a limited military blow to Syria, didn't scare investors. Let's note that the final decision will be made, most likely, in a few days. The price for Oil stabilized slightly and decreased in comparison to the last few days. Brent is traded on a level of 113.37$ per barrel, and Light is traded on a level of 106.63$ per barrel.

Today investors will be waiting for the conference of Mr.Dragi and the unemployment figures from the USA.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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06 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE RELEASE OF STRONG DATA FROM THE USA STRENGTHENED SALES OF EURO

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Statistical data presented yesterday in America had a more considerable impact on the market than the meetings of two main Central Banks! As a result, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with small growth of the main indexes. Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0.04% to the level of 14937.50 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.12% to a price of 1655.08 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to plus on 0.27% and reached a point of 3658.78.

Strong macroeconomic data from the USA, in addition to the press conference of Mr. Dragi, became the last straw, and if the currency pair in the morning tried to keep next to the level 1.32 – it was unsuccessful, dropping to a local minimum on the level of 1.3109. Dragi began his speech with discussions on slights signs of recovery in the economy, but summed up by declaring that hard times have not yet passed. Moreover, he confirmed that it is impossible to exclude the need of lower rates.

Tension around the 'Syrian' question continues to grow. Accusations of attempted murder of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Egypt, confirms that all of the Middle East, not only Syria, is experiencing internal problems. It only maintains demand for the US Dollar, which is so popular in anticipation of the report on "non-farm” payrolls.

In the commodity market, Brent is traded on a level of 113.49$ per barrel, and Light reached 107.63$ per barrel. Gold with delivery in December on COMEX, yesterday fell in the price by 1.22% to the level of 1373.00$ for troy ounce, and this morning is traded on a level of 1371.56$.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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09 SEPTEMBER 2013: DECISION ON SYRIA CAN BRING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON STOCK MARKETS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Last week was full of macroeconomic statistical data, which has been bringing turbulence on the markets and we have witnessed quite different movements in the stock and currency markets of late. Despite the fact that trading session in the American stock market has been rather volatile, indexes finished almost on the levels they began. Dow Jones dropped for 0.10% and reached 14922.50, Nasdaq added 0.03% and closed the session on the level of 3660.01 and S&P500 increased for 0.01% and closed the session on 1655.17.

The American Dollar strengthened last week due to key macroeconomic indicators, which were better than expectations, showing increased chances that FRS will begin the reduction of the program of quantitative easing following the results of the next meeting which will take place on September 17-18. The PMI indexes in the production and services sector were recorded at levels 55.7% and 58.6%, respectively. But, after the publication of the report on the labor market, where data for June and July were revised with a fall in the sum on 79 thousand, the American Dollar was under moderate pressure and started to lose in relation to major currencies.

The European currency has also been under quite strong pressure after the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Dragi, during a press conference, declared that the Management board discussed the possibility of an additional decrease of the interest rate. The month before, the European Central Bank gave reference points on monetary policy in which he noted that rates will remain low in "the foreseeable future". However, against improving macroeconomic statistics, participants of the market began to exclude the possibility of a further decrease, and the Euro became stronger. EUR/USD pair on Friday was traded on the level of 1.3160, losing following the results of a week 0.4%. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on the level of 1.3172.

This week there are no expected important macroeconomic statistics capable to have essential impact on the moods of participants of the currency market. As for the near-term outlook, Syria still remains the center of attention. Obama's speech to the nation address is planned for Tuesday. On Wednesday congressmen are returning from vacation, and will, most probably, take a final decision on the Syrian matter.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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10 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE USA IS READY TO POSTPONE MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST SYRIA

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Today the market will be more nervous than it was on Monday - the USA is ready to accept Russia's offer and to postpone military operation against Syria, if Syria will agree to transfer it's chemical weapons over to international control. Based on this news and these discussions, prices of Oil are falling. Brent is traded this morning on 111.47$ per barrel and Light has reached level of 107.46$. Both oil brands are losing around 1% in price. Nevertheless, the latest events are only a temporary break before the situation will continue to develop, according to a new scenario.

Meanwhile, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate growth of the main indexes, the Dow Jones index recorded the greatest increase from the middle of July, having added 0.94%. Nasdaq and S&P500 added 1.26% and 0.99% accordingly. Mainly all the stock markets were growing on Chinese optimism.

To remind you, the surplus of the chinese trade balance made $28.61 billion in comparison with average market expectations at the level of $20 billion. The improvement is welcomed by investors, and even the possible war in Syria doesnt seem it will effect further investment in markets.

Another interesting development we can see is in the development of the EUR/USD currency pair. USD felt under pressure after the index of business moods of Sentix grew to 6.5, instead of the predicted fall to 4.0, having showed the maximum indicator since May, 2011. The Euro went above the level of 1.32, reaching a 1.3280 high during the American trading session, and closing the day on around 1.3260. This morning, the Dollar is trying to win back lost positions and is strengthening towards the Euro, traded on a level of 1.3246.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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11 September 2013: Berlusconi’s Threats Attract Attention Of Investors

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Yesterday stock markets of the United States of America finished the trading session on a positive note due to support given by statements of the Prime Minister of Syria, and statistics from China, which appeared to be better than the average expectations of analysts.

The Prime Minister of Syria, Wael al-Halki, declared that his country agreed to the offer from Russia to transfer all Syrian chemical weapons under international control, having officially agreed, thus, on chemical disarmament. The market apprehended this news, taking into consideration the speech of the US Secretary of State, John Kerri, who noted that Assad can avoid military intervention if he transfers all chemical weapons to the international community within the next week.

As for Chinese statistics, according to the presented data, retails increased in August by 13.4%, whilst an increase of only 13.2% had been predicted. Industrial production in August increased by 10.4%, which exceeded forecasts of analysts of 9.9%.

Following the results of yesterday's trading session - the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, got stronger 0.85%, and closed on the level of 15 191,06 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 increased 0.73% to the level of 1 683.99 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, added 0.62% reaching 3 729.02 points.

As the Syrian question has been put on hold, prices of Oil of brand Light, started to decrease in price, reaching the price of 106.16$ per barrel this morning . Brent adds 0.10% and is traded on a level of 110.13$. Gold is stable on 1367.09$.

While the economic calendar lacks statistical data, attention of investors is now drawn to the subject in relation to Berlusconi and his party. It is an important subject, as Italy is the third largest economy in the 17 member Eurozone, and if a crisis will begin within the country, echoes will be heard throughout the region. Secondly, the threat of the politician to convince the party to stop government support is dangerous, due to the fact that the coalition government of the current Prime Minister won't be able to continue work. If there is a Parliament collapse, the need of carrying out new elections will lead to new expenses, and instability in Italy. Berlusconi didn't voice the decision yet, but can make it at any time, therefore the EUR/USD trades very carefully.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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12 September 2013: Investors Await FRS Meeting Where The Destiny Of The QE3 Program Can Be Decided

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Leading stock markets of Europe were growing yesterday. The leader became the German DAX, which added 0.6%. The growth is mainly due to an increased interest from investors towards the largest German energy companies - E.ON (+4,8%) and RWE (+6,6%). The value of the stock of the British chip maker ARM Holdings, developing chips for iPhone smartphones, jumped up yesterday by almost 5%. It occurred after Apple announced two latest versions of the smartphones - multipurpose iPhone 5S and its younger brother - the iPhone 5C.

However, shares of Apple after the presentation of the smartphones fell more than 7% in two days . Experts were skeptical in regards to the budgetary IPhone 5C, which obviously didn't reach the target price category. The falling of stock quotes of Apple were negatively reflected yesterday in an index of the technological sector of the USA, which lost 0.1%. In turn, Dow Jones finished the trading day in the green zone, having added 0.7%, thankfully, to growth of stock quotations of IBM corporation. The corporation declared that sales to the Synnex company, the division which is engaged in outsourcing support of clients, grew by $0.5 billion. Shares of Synnex jumped up yesterday over 20%.

Another interesting development yesterday was that on the expectations of good performance results, due to increased demand for mobile advertising, Facebook shares rose in price 3.3% and were closed at 45.04$ per share, having exceeded a level of 45.00$ for the first time since the moment of IPO, which was carried out in May, 2012.

As for the currency market, main currency pairs approached key levels of resistance. As a result, EUR/USD finished the trading day in the level of 1.3310, and GBP/USD – around 1.5740. News that the U.S. President, Barack Obama, asked the Congress to postpone the vote concerning a potential rocket attack across Damascus, reduced interest in the US Dollar, however, the pair faced quite strong resistance on 1.3280 which could go through only during the American session. This morning, EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3302, there is possibility that levels of 1.3320/1.3330 will be difficult to overcome and, as a result, it is possible to expect temporary correction back to 1.3260.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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13 September 2013: Markets Stiffened Waiting For FRS Meeting

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Thursday, September 12, the main stock indexes of the United States of America finished the trading session in negative territory. The Syrian problem still remains on the agenda. Intensity in the markets grew again after John Kerri's statements that the probability of military operations from the USA isn't excluded yet.

Expectations concerning reduction of the program of the stimulation of the economy of the USA, which could be declared next week, only poured oil on the fire. This speculation has been strengthened by data on the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits, which reached the minimum value since March, 2006. The number made 292 thousand, whereas 330 thousand were expected.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips", the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, lost 0.17% and was closed on a level of 15 300.64 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 went to a minus for 0.34% to level 1 683.42 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, lost 0.24% reaching the level of 3 715.97 points.

As the majority of the participants of the market wait for any definiteness concerning the solution of the conflict surrounding Syria, the price of Brent continues to dangle near a key zone of support level, of 110-112$ per barrel. This area separates us from a more essential impulse down. This morning Brent is traded on the level of 111.71$ per barrel, and Light on 107.69$ per barrel.

As for the EUR/USD currency pair, prospects of the pair have limited character in connection with unimpressive recovery of the economy of the Euro zone. The area 1.3320/1.3330 still remains to be very difficult for overcoming, so strong data on retail sales could send the pair down with the nearest level on 1.3260.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd