Technical Templates

[speedbump]

Let's just hope that the magic "hit me" and I don't loose this feel for the markets.
Simplicity...
Thanks for all your efforts at getting me to simplify my view.

Write it down & keep it in eyeshot at all times until it becomes automatic.
Sometimes it just takes a little time & reflection before the obvious becomes commonplace!
Glad to see it's clicking into place for you jcp

This morning I put it into practice again at 8.15 CET on Cable & 8.30 CET on NzdUsd.

It was also evident on 5min usd/chf (which was brought to folks attention on wednesday) twice this morning after the London open

[jcpfx]

Glad to see it's clicking into place for you jcp
It was also evident on 5min usd/chf (which was brought to folks attention on wednesday) twice this morning after the London open

Thanks Speedbump! Let's hope it sticks

Regarding UsdChf, I really don't like CHF pairs... With the SNB constantly active, I feel better playing elsewhere

I'll post a trade of mine this morning on AudUsd which I scratched, and the reasoning behind it. The logic behind the preparation should be "in tune" now...



4h chart showing price being sustained overnight at 1.0525 > higher low, so trend still in motion on the 4H chart and I drop down to the 1H chart to take a look


Higher low, Higher High motion evidenced > I am now only in need of a 15Min pullback entry of some sort



I logically saw the 1.0539/47 area as my main support area, and after the pin, broken to the upside, I entered the market with a stop @ 1.0535.
The market however failed to rally, tested the demand in the support area once again, and failed to rally, so I decided to cut & run with a small loss.

Other considerations: it's a friday...this trend has been in play all week and may be tired...also, the USD is gaining this morning across the board and many other pairs have gone into neutral, out of their trend.

Thoughts?

[strobe]

I'll post a trade of mine this morning on AudUsd and the reasoning behind it.
The logic behind the preparation should be "in tune" now...
The market however failed to rally so I decided to cut & run with a small loss.

Other considerations: it's a friday...this trend has been in play all week and may be tired...also, the USD is gaining this morning across the board and many other pairs have gone into neutral, out of their trend.
Thoughts?

Nothing much amiss with your identification, prep & set up from what I can see.
You executed based on solid reasoning & more importantly, got out when the reasons for still being seated no longer held up....that should always be the most satisfying part of that type of scenario.

As for the reasons behind the lack of follow through?
You covered it right there in your final paragraph.

Job well done!
You just need to stick to that course of action every time & try to emulate the background & foreground structure on a rolling basis.

The toughest part of this approach is identifying & filtering the high quality background prep from the low quality stuff.
It's so tempting to try & find entries where they don't really exist & get lured into executing low probability bets.
Once you become more familiar & competent identifying the high grade bets and eliminating the low grade ones, your confidence in applying this simple approach will increase accordingly.
It won't eliminate or prevent losses, but marrying up tight, logical risk parameters with a solid & well drilled prep/execution model will ensure you keep sensible control on your capital base & maintain focus & discipline.

[jcpfx]

I'll post a trade of mine this morning on AudUsd and the reasoning behind it.
The logic behind the preparation should be "in tune" now...
The market however failed to rally so I decided to cut & run with a small loss.

Other considerations: it's a friday...this trend has been in play all week and may be tired...also, the USD is gaining this morning across the board and many other pairs have gone into neutral, out of their trend.
Thoughts?

Nothing much amiss with your identification, prep & set up from what I can see.
You executed based on solid reasoning & more importantly, got out when the reasons for still being seated no longer held up....that should always be the most satisfying part of that type of scenario.

As for the reasons behind the lack of follow through?
You covered it right there in your final paragraph.

Job well done!
You just need to stick to that course of action every time & try to emulate the background & foreground structure on a rolling basis.

The toughest part of this approach is in the quality of the background filtering & identification. It's so tempting to try & find entries where they don't really exist & get lured into executing low probability bets.
Once you become more familiar & competent identifying the high grade bets and eliminating the low grade ones, your confidence in applying this simple approach will increase accordingly.
It won't eliminate or prevent losses, but marrying up tight, logical risk parameters with a solid & well drilled prep/execution model will ensure you keep sensible control on your capital base & maintain focus & discipline.

I am very satisfied, Strobe. And very happy to hear those thoughts from you.

Thanks!

[kyle morgan]

Yen based pairs began struggling to make further headway from mid week & succumbed to profit taking as the weekend approached.
I still have them at the top of the set up list & will monitor them for continuation activity if & when they begin exhibiting the usual technical signs such as higher highs & higher lows (with accompanying hook triggers) via the sub hourly timeframes.

In the meantime I'll also be eyeing the following pairs for follow through/pullback activity into next week, triggering the pair or pairs offering the best set up credentials at the time:
EURUSD, EURCAD & EURAUD to the long side
AUDNZD, USDCHF & GBPCHF to the short side.

Usual swing violation exit & trailing profit stop levels will apply once entered which are clearly visible on the hourly technicals.

[jcpfx]

Yen based pairs began struggling to make further headway from mid week & succumbed to profit taking as the weekend approached.

That phrase of yours pretty much summs up my impressions on Jpy. I think that many are already looking to short Jpy pairs, and even if I don't think the time is mature yet for steady shorts, I would equally have trouble taking long bets as we stand. Going into the week, I'll actually be looking lower at least on AudJpy as I think we may retrace to 104.30s and find offers there...and similar to that is CadJpy around the 97.90/98.00 level.

In the meantime I'll also be eyeing the following pairs

EURUSD, EURCAD & EURAUD to the long side
AUDNZD, USDCHF & GBPCHF to the short side.

Yeah, I definitely agree on those choices, even if I don't like CHF pairs much!

I recall AudNzd being named a couple of times recently, and I diddn't have the chart up on my charting package...until this morning Good stuff to you and the others that took the ride down during the last few of weeks! 2230s to 2190s looks like a likely play going into the week, so i'll try not to miss it!

Good Luck going into the week! Kuroda might stir things up a little with his open mouth operations tomorrow morning at 8.15 CET. Calendar is light tomorrow from there on, with only EU Trade Balance and US Empire State Manuf.Index present.

Have a great Sunday! Here the weather is great and I'll be attempting to start work on my tan... (pic is from a town inland from where I am)

[jjay]

I recall AudNzd being named a couple of times recently, and I didn't have the chart up on my charting package...until this morning
Good stuff to you and the others that took the ride down during the last few of weeks!

Hopefully the constant affirmation & repetitive habits of constantly performing the simple, basic tasks properly such as scrolling through the individual currencies every day to identify the higher probability background set ups, will encourage folks to adopt that habit themselves.

It makes life so much easier if you're focusing your time & effort on instruments that are exhibiting the types of behavior that offer you a fighting chance of achieving a positive outcome.

That looks like a nice part of the world you're living in jcp.
Enjoy the sunshine & good luck next week.

[jcpfx]

Morning JJay,

thanks for the kind words, let's hope it all sticks going forward!

Overnight, CNY data disappointed and the Commodity currencies took a dive. My watchlist has been updated as such:

1) Short AudUsd & AudJpy & CadJpy > currently waiting for a 15min entry on pullback as 4H & 1H are already trending in the desired direction

2) Long UsdCad, EurCad, EurAud > currently waiting for 15min entry on pullback as 4H & 1H are already trending in the desired direction

Good luck to all this week!

[jcpfx]

And here is my coin flip from this morning:

AudJpy short. Aussie was definitely the weakest vs. Jpy this morning, reaching the o/n low again (my target).


15Min chart

No other trades yet.

[jcpfx]

Evening all,

does anyone feel like sharing an opinion regarding the current moves playing out? The situation is feeling fairly bearish to me, and I doubt it all depends on the Gold drop. S&P has dropped quite a lot as well...on my charts it looks like it may be the beginning of a deeper correction.

Aud, Nzd, Cad are being taken to the shed...

So far I haven't seen any headlines that could shed some light on this situation