Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby irsjwoo » Thu Apr 01, 2010 5:18 pm

Greetings,
I thought I give you fellow forextraders a summary of a trade I took on the EUR/JPY today. I will explain my trade setup step by step:
1. First of all look for the direction of the longer term trend, the main trend of this pair is still up so my bias will be towards long trades.
2. Draw the up/down trendlines on the 1H timeframe, these lines provide the triggerlevels because I am biased long I will only trade a break of the upper trendline.
3. Switch to a lower timeframe (5m or 15m timeframe) to time our entry.
That said lets apply this all to the chart of the EUR/JPY (5m). In the picture the downtrendline is coloured brown and the uptrendline is orange. We see a break of the uptrendline in the early London session, but I did not trade this break because it was a countertrend break. Later in the afternoon my sound alarm went off as price aproached the downtrendline, a signal for me to go long is when a 5m candle closes above the trendline, my longtrade was triggered at 12,641.7
My stoploss was placed below the last swinglow at 12,626.0, My target is the next pivotlevel R1 at 12,718.0 This gives me a reward/risk ratio of about 5 so the trade is worth a try. In the second picture you see price hit our target late in the afternoon and it went even beyond our target R1.
ey.jpg
ey2.jpg


May the force be with you,
irsjwoo
 
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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby cpr » Thu Apr 01, 2010 6:11 pm

but I did not trade this break because it was a countertrend break


What do you mean by the statement ?

This trade is not based on the advance strategy 5, right ? It is simply based on the resistance and support lines in the direction of the trend.
cpr
 
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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby cpr » Fri Apr 02, 2010 12:03 am

Got my computer back.. and tried to setup the modified indicator.

What I see here is - I don't see the vertical line for today, April 1st. But I did still see a vertical line of Mar 29th. I am not sure why it is still there. The Down and Up values at the bottom - what is their refrence ? Probably when I see new lines tomorrow morning, it makes more sense.. Here is the chart for the visual representation. I have the same situation for eurusd.

Your thoughts please ?
gbpusd Apr 1st -2010.gif
cpr
 
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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby szgy74 » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:56 am

Hi,

Thanks for your notice. One case, MT4 needs some time loading new data.
Another, I have made some fixes. The mentioned TL was the newest one, but still too old (older than 1 day) and should not be displayed.
So the reference of the numbers were also wrong.

Trendlines2_H1-breakout_v4.mq4
(13.29 KiB) Downloaded 1251 times


Thank you for your useful comments.

cpr wrote:Got my computer back.. and tried to setup the modified indicator.

What I see here is - I don't see the vertical line for today, April 1st. But I did still see a vertical line of Mar 29th. I am not sure why it is still there. The Down and Up values at the bottom - what is their refrence ? Probably when I see new lines tomorrow morning, it makes more sense.. Here is the chart for the visual representation. I have the same situation for eurusd.

Your thoughts please ?
The attachment gbpusd Apr 1st -2010.gif is no longer available
szgy74
 
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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby szgy74 » Fri Apr 02, 2010 6:13 am

cpr wrote:Interesting.. and Thank you for your continued conversation.

I love this conversation to achieve common objectives.

I am not sure how much data is enough to say that this strategy can be automated. Becuase in the changed economic scenarios, lot of things could happen.

May be at least we need 3 months of data consistently - at least 100 trades .. if the win ratio is aboe 75% and R:R ratio is greater than or equal to 1:2 , then we can say .. with some certainity this can be automated..

I am not sure how much data you have now with you now to justify building an EA.


You are right, an EA needs to be profitable on the long run to say it is really profitable.
I watch/trade this strategy since about last year's december. It was almost always winning.
And besides I trust the word of others here who use this successfully :-)

The programming of this EA is quite a challenging itself, with all the extras, it needs analyze more of the chart data.
It is not so simple like watching two MA's cross (value max 2 bars before), and then send an order.
Once we are ready, we can sell this for only $99 with 30 days money back :-) Just kidding...

I take a break for a week now, wish all of you happy Easter holiday.
Then I will surely back with new verisons and results.

Regards,
Gyula
szgy74
 
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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby szgy74 » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:22 am

cpr wrote:Got my computer back.. and tried to setup the modified indicator.

What I see here is - I don't see the vertical line for today, April 1st. But I did still see a vertical line of Mar 29th. I am not sure why it is still there. The Down and Up values at the bottom - what is their refrence ? Probably when I see new lines tomorrow morning, it makes more sense.. Here is the chart for the visual representation. I have the same situation for eurusd.

Your thoughts please ?


I forgot to mention, this new version still needs some testing.
szgy74
 
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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby cpr » Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:04 am

I am still having some issues with this new v3 and V4. Both are seems to be starting their trendlines from the working zone. Are they not supposed to draw from the previous zone. see the image.
gbpusd Apr 2nd -2010.gif



And according to this trendline the price breaked the upward trend line and reversed again. So this is a loosing trade.

It does not have formed the downward trend line which may be right since there may not be any swing lows applicable.

[color]Can you update your indicator so that it can form the vertical line to represent the beginning of the working zone ? [color=#0000BF]
cpr
 
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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby szgy74 » Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:34 am

cpr wrote:I am still having some issues with this new v3 and V4. Both are seems to be starting their trendlines from the working zone. Are they not supposed to draw from the previous zone. see the image.

And according to this trendline the price breaked the upward trend line and reversed again. So this is a loosing trade.

It does not have formed the downward trend line which may be right since there may not be any swing lows applicable.

[color]Can you update your indicator so that it can form the vertical line to represent the beginning of the working zone ? [color=#0000BF]


Yes, of course I can make this update.

As I understand the strategy the previous swing high should not necessarily be outside the 5 candle range.
The most recent swing must be in the range.
I will look after this, if it is sure.

V3, V4: Please use the latest version. I append the Vx suffix only to be sure which is the last posted here.

The breakout and reverse was in less than 5 minutes as NFP news came out.

I am not sure if next week I will have the time to do anything with forex, but I will update.
szgy74
 
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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby cpr » Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:39 am

Ok. Thank you. then probably we need two vertical lines to represent the beginning of the working zone and the ending of the working zone.

If the trendline does not start from the previous zone what two swing highs it is going to connect ? With in the working zone ?

Let me also look at the main strategy to ensure we are on the same page.
cpr
 
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Re: Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System)

Postby szgy74 » Fri Apr 02, 2010 11:48 am

cpr wrote:Ok. Thank you. then probably we need two vertical lines to represent the beginning of the working zone and the ending of the working zone.

If the trendline does not start from the previous zone what two swing highs it is going to connect ? With in the working zone ?

Let me also look at the main strategy to ensure we are on the same page.


I looked through the comments, found 2 relevant:

http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/ad ... t/cpage-14
"Submitted by Edward Revy on July 8, 2008 - 04:12."
"We always use the most recent swings."

http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/ad ... t/cpage-28
"Submitted by Edward Revy on October 15, 2009 - 04:34."
"I always take the very first swing high/low within the 5 candle range." -- and here is a detailed explanation why.

"Submitted by Edward Revy on October 13, 2009 - 04:57."
here is a screenshot with two swing lows in the range, the TL is drawn through the first in the range.

So, you are right! The next version will work according to this: the trendline must use the first swing h/L of the 5 candle range, and the previous swing H/L outside (before) the range.

I used simply the most recent swings.
szgy74
 
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