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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 25, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1640 on Monday, May 25, after rising at the start of the Asian session. The US dollar is losing ground as expectations of a possible agreement on the Strait of Hormuz reduced demand for safe-haven assets and sent oil below $100 per barrel. This supports the euro, as lower energy pressure improves the outlook for the eurozone economy.

Another factor supporting the euro is the ECB’s signal that it is ready to return to rate hikes if inflation does not slow down. This background limits selling pressure on the European currency, especially as investors remain cautious toward the dollar. In the US, the market is pricing in the possibility of a prolonged period of high rates, but today this factor is giving way to improved global risk sentiment.

At the same time, EUR/USD growth may remain uneven, as the Fed, according to most economists, is in no hurry to move toward rate cuts in 2026. If Middle East negotiations do not lead to a quick result, demand for the dollar may recover. For now, the base scenario for the pair remains moderately upward: the euro is supported by the ECB’s stance and lower oil-related risks.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1640, SL 1.1610, TP 1.1730

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 29 May 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4560.00, SL 4530.00, TP 4650.00​

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Gold starts the week near $4,560 per ounce and is supported by a weaker US dollar. Investors are assessing the prospects of a US-Iran agreement on the Strait of Hormuz: lower oil prices reduce inflation risks and partly ease the pressure of high interest rates on the metals market.

Demand for safe-haven assets remains in place, as a quick outcome to the negotiations is not guaranteed. If the dollar stays under pressure and market participants continue to price in a softer inflation backdrop due to falling oil prices, XAU/USD may keep the advantage on the buyers’ side during the week.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4560.00, SL 4530.00, TP 4650.00


#SP500: BUY 7475, SL 7415, TP 7655​




The S&P 500 starts the week near 7,475 points after steady growth in the US stock market. The index is supported by improved investor risk sentiment, oil falling below $100, and demand for technology stocks following strong corporate earnings.

The main factor limiting growth is the high yield on US Treasury bonds and the Fed’s caution due to inflation. However, if Middle East negotiations continue to reduce energy risks, #SP500 still has room for moderate growth.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7475, SL 7415, TP 7655


#BRENT: SELL 98.30, SL 101.30, TP 89.30​




Brent starts the week near $98.30 per barrel after a sharp decline. Pressure on the price increased due to expectations of a US-Iran agreement, which could open the way for the restoration of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the risk premium in oil prices.

The market is still taking into account the possibility that negotiations may fail, so upward rebounds are possible. However, the basic weekly background is shifting toward a decline: if supply concerns ease and demand remains cautious, Brent may continue moving lower.

Trading recommendation: SELL 98.30, SL 101.30, TP 89.30


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for May 26, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 76800, SL 75900, TP 95000.​

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Bitcoin continues its struggle for the opportunity to develop a strong upward impulsive movement. So far, there has been little success. Every step higher comes with difficulty and is met with an immediate response from the opposing side.

Nevertheless, the situation still remains favorable for growth. Previously, the development of a corrective decline in the form of a zigzag likely came to an end, representing wave 2 within an emerging upward impulsive movement.

This was followed by an attempt to rise and then a corrective pullback. Today, buyers are likely to make another attempt to push the price higher, so it is worth considering opening long positions at current market levels.

Investment idea: BUY 76800, SL 75900, TP 95000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Gold Shines, Silver Catches Up


Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) continue to rise, driven by a combination of factors: a weaker dollar, increased demand for safe-haven assets, expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained investor interest in precious metals.

Gold is additionally supported by central bank purchases and demand for bullion, coins, and ETFs. Silver, alongside investment demand, benefits from strong industrial use: it is widely applied in solar energy, electronics, electric vehicles, and infrastructure for new technologies. Against this backdrop, both assets remain attractive to investors, while silver may move more sharply due to lower liquidity and a persistent supply deficit.

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5 key growth drivers for gold and silver in 2026:

1. Geopolitical uncertainty: Conflicts, sanctions risks, and instability in global trade support demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets.
2. Weak dollar: When the dollar declines, precious metals become more affordable for buyers in other countries, boosting demand.
3. Fed rate expectations: If the market anticipates rate cuts or stable yields, interest in gold and silver typically increases.
4. Central bank and investor buying: Central banks continue to increase gold reserves, while private investors maintain demand for bullion, coins, and funds.
5. Industrial demand for silver: Solar energy, electronics, electric vehicles, and technological infrastructure support silver demand. With limited supply, this strengthens its growth potential.

FreshForex analysts note that gold and silver remain in strong positions, although their growth drivers differ. Gold continues to act as the primary safe-haven asset amid a weak dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and steady central bank demand. Silver gains additional momentum from industrial demand, with solar energy, electronics, and emerging technologies boosting interest amid constrained supply. Therefore, local pullbacks in XAUUSD and XAGUSD can be seen as opportunities to look for buying positions. While the two metals are driven by different factors, the overall trend remains the same — demand for precious assets in 2026 continues to stay strong.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 27, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is trading near 1.3450 on Wednesday, May 27, after pulling back from higher levels seen at the start of the week. The British currency remains under pressure due to the strengthening US dollar, as investors are taking a more cautious view of the prospects for a quick resolution of the conflict around Iran. New US strikes have worsened market sentiment, while stronger demand for the US currency limits the pound’s recovery.

The domestic backdrop for the UK is also mixed. The latest business activity data showed the composite PMI falling below 50, indicating an economic slowdown. Inflation slowed to 2.8% in April, but rising energy prices continue to create risks for households and businesses. The Bank of England is likely to act cautiously, so the pound is not receiving strong support from rate expectations.

The political factor is also holding back pound buyers after regional elections and discussions about the stability of the Labour Party leadership. At the same time, the pair’s short-term movement still depends on the dollar and news from the Middle East. As long as investors prefer defensive assets, GBP/USD remains vulnerable to further decline.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3450, SL 1.3480, TP 1.3360

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Analysis of margin levels for May 28, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4500.63-4590.28, TP1-4367.23, TP2-4121.33.

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Long-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 4395.00–4445.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the strength of sellers.



Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at quotes 4535.00-4555.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the strength of sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the minimum of 28.05.2026.

The quote of the lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4433.93.

The quote of the lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4500.63.

Intraday targets: renewal of the lows from 28.05.2026–4367.23.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ - 4121.33.



Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

Sell: 4500.63-4590.28, Take Profit 1–4367.23, Take Profit 2–4121.33.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 29, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

11:20 EET. GBP - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is holding near 1.3400 after falling to its lowest levels since mid-May. Pressure on the pound is linked not only to the stronger US dollar amid high US inflation, but also to domestic political uncertainty in the UK. Investors are cautiously assessing risks for the government and the possible impact of political tensions on the economic agenda.

The British currency is also receiving limited support from the Bank of England. The regulator maintains a cautious approach: inflation remains elevated, but the economy is showing signs of cooling, including weaker demand and slower hiring. This reduces the pound’s appeal, as the market does not see a clear UK advantage over the US in monetary policy.

For the pair, the key factor remains the US dollar. The high US Personal Consumption Expenditures index strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates at current levels for longer. If demand for the dollar remains stable and UK political risks stay in focus, GBP/USD may continue to decline toward the nearest target levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3400, SL 1.3430, TP 1.3310

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 1, 2026 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

USDJPY:



USD/JPY is holding near 159.45–159.50, as the US dollar keeps its advantage amid the yield gap and demand for the US currency. The yen remains vulnerable despite expectations of a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan in June. Investors are waiting for new signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda, but the market does not yet see a sufficiently firm position that could quickly shift the balance in favor of the Japanese currency.

The fundamental background supports the US dollar. Geopolitical tensions and rising oil-related risks increase inflation concerns in the US, which may encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a stricter position. For Japan, expensive energy is also a problem, but the Bank of Japan is acting cautiously to avoid damaging the economic recovery. Therefore, even expectations of a rate hike do not guarantee a stable strengthening of the yen.

The base scenario for today is growth in USD/JPY. The main risk for buying is the pair’s proximity to the area where Japanese authorities may intensify verbal warnings about the currency market. Nevertheless, there are currently no direct signs of intervention, while the difference in monetary policy expectations remains in favor of the US dollar. Therefore, with the current news background preserved, buying remains preferable.

Trading recommendation: BUY 159.45, SL 159.15, TP 160.35

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 29 May 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4518.50, SL 4478.50, TP 4645.50



Gold starts the week near $4,518–4,522 per ounce: a stronger dollar and interest rate expectations limit further growth, but the conflict in the Middle East continues to support demand for safe-haven assets. The market is waiting for signals from the Fed and news on US-Iran talks, so sharp price swings remain possible.

On the weekly horizon, the baseline scenario remains moderately positive: tensions around energy supplies increase inflation risks, while central bank demand supports gold on pullbacks. Dollar strength may slow the move, but if the geopolitical backdrop worsens, buyers could push the price back above current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4518.50, SL 4478.50, TP 4645.50



#SP500: BUY 7616, SL 7550, TP 7820



The S&P 500 enters June near record highs: the index is trading around 7,580, while the futures price is close to 7,616. The market is supported by strong earnings expectations and demand for companies linked to artificial intelligence. Rising oil prices remain the main limiting factor, as they increase concerns about inflation.

This week, investors will focus on US employment data and Fed comments. If the reports do not show a sharp overheating of the economy, demand for equities may remain stable. However, the high concentration of growth in the technology sector increases the risk of profit-taking, so the buy scenario looks cautious.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7616, SL 7550, TP 7820



#BRENT: BUY 93.20, SL 90.80, TP 100.40



Brent starts the week near $93.10–93.30 per barrel after gaining more than 2%. The key driver is tension in the Persian Gulf region and uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations. The market is concerned about possible supply disruptions, which offsets part of the pressure from weaker Chinese oil imports in May.

Over the week, the price may remain supported while Middle East news stays worrying. Growth is limited by expectations of supply recovery if the ceasefire is extended, as well as buyer caution after the May decline. The baseline scenario is moderate growth with high sensitivity to news.

Trading recommendation: BUY 93.20, SL 90.80, TP 100.40


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for June 2, 2026 XAUUSD​

#NQ100: BUY 30079.8-30357.3, TP1-30634.8, TP2-31380.8.

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 29070.0–29360.0. At the moment, investment operations on #NQ100 are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.



Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at quotes 29950.0–30020.0 and 30300.0–30370.0. At the moment, investment operations on #NQ100 are being carried out inside the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the maximum of 01.06.2026.

The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 30357.3.

The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 30079.8.

Intraday targets: renewal of the highs from 01.06.2026–30634.8.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 31380.8.



Investment recommendations: purchases from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

Buy: 30079.8-30357.3, Take Profit 1-30634.8, Take Profit 2-31380.8.

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