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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 13, 2026 USDJPY


USDJPY:




USD/JPY is holding near 157.65–157.70, as the US dollar is supported by accelerating inflation, rising Treasury yields, and worsening global risk appetite. After the April consumer price report, market participants are more cautious in assessing the probability of Fed policy easing, which preserves the dollar’s appeal.

The yen is receiving temporary support from discussions about possible action by Japanese authorities against excessive volatility. Statements by the US and Japanese finance ministries about the undesirability of sharp movements in the currency market are limiting the pair’s growth, but so far they have not changed the overall balance of factors. The yield gap between the United States and Japan remains significant, while demand for the dollar is helping USD/JPY stay at elevated levels.

The baseline scenario for today suggests a cautious continuation of USD/JPY growth if US statistics confirm persistent inflation and US yields remain high. At the same time, position size should be controlled due to the risk of sharp comments or actions from Japanese authorities. Given the current fundamental backdrop, preference remains with buying from nearby market levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 157.65, SL 157.45, TP 158.55

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for May 14, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 81400, SL 79100, TP 95000.​



Bitcoin has so far been unable to resume its upward movement. Every attempt to rise encounters resistance that cannot be overcome. However, it is now possible to see that a zigzag pattern has formed, which means there is a high probability of another attempt to start an upward impulsive movement.

Growth is expected within the development of wave 3, which will likely extend. If this is indeed the case, we may witness a prolonged impulsive rally. Targets around 95,000 remain valid, although movement even higher is also possible.

In this situation, it is recommended to open positions upon a breakout of the local maximum.

Investment idea: BUY 81400, SL 79100, TP 95000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Three indices. Three different paths

The main drivers behind the Japanese market’s growth are AI-driven optimism, strong corporate earnings, a weak yen, and capital inflows into Japanese equities amid corporate governance reforms. In May, #NIKKEI reached new all-time highs and gained around 24% year-to-date. Against this backdrop, #DAX30 and #CAC40 appear weaker: Germany’s #DAX30 is held back by sluggish economic growth, high energy costs, and risks of ECB rate hikes, while France’s #CAC40 is pressured by a slowdown in the luxury sector and its dependence on demand from China and the Middle East.



Japanese market:

Growth factors: #NIKKEI is supported by AI enthusiasm, strong earnings from tech and industrial companies, a weak yen, and foreign capital inflows into Japanese equities. Additional support comes from corporate governance reforms and share buybacks.
Downside factors: Pressure may increase if the yen strengthens sharply, profit-taking begins in the AI sector, or the Bank of Japan tightens policy. Rising energy prices and geopolitical risks also pose threats.

German market:

Growth factors: #DAX30 may recover with improved industrial demand, a weaker euro, and rising export orders. Support may also come from the banking and defense sectors.
Downside factors: The index is constrained by Germany’s weak economy, high energy costs, and the risk of ECB rate hikes. Additional pressure may come from weak demand in China and the U.S.

French market:

Growth factors: #CAC40 may gain support if demand for luxury goods recovers, conditions in China improve, and tourism flows increase. Easing geopolitical tensions would also be positive.
Downside factors: The main risk is a continued decline in demand for luxury goods and cautious consumer behavior. The index is also pressured by high energy costs, a strong euro, and potential ECB tightening.

FreshForex analysts note that the divergence between #NIKKEI and European indices is only beginning to unfold. The Japanese market remains in a stronger position, with a weak yen and ongoing reforms continuing to provide support. Any short-term pullback in #NIKKEI may be seen as a buying opportunity. At the same time, #DAX30 and #CAC40 look more vulnerable — high energy costs, ECB rate risks, and weak demand for luxury goods are weighing on prices. On upward rebounds, these indices may present selling opportunities. Three indices are moving in different directions — all that remains is to choose the right entry point.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 15, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales

USDJPY:



USD/JPY is trading near 158.50 as the US dollar maintains its advantage amid a revision of expectations for Fed policy. Rising oil prices and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing inflationary pressure, while fresh retail sales and jobless claims data point to the resilience of the US economy. This supports demand for the dollar against the yen.

The yen remains vulnerable despite discussions about possible action by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. According to Reuters, Japan had already purchased yen in early May as USD/JPY approached the 160.00 area. Such measures may restrain sharp upward moves, but they do not yet change the overall balance of power: the yield differential between the US and Japan continues to favour the dollar.

In Japan, inflationary pressure is also increasing due to expensive energy and the weak national currency, which raises expectations of stricter decisions by the Bank of Japan at upcoming meetings. However, until the regulator provides concrete signals, the market will continue to focus on US statistics and Fed expectations. Therefore, the base-case scenario remains a moderate rise in USD/JPY, with an elevated risk of intervention from Tokyo.

Trading recommendation: BUY 158.50, SL 158.20, TP 159.40

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 18, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is declining on Monday and trading near 1.1620, as the US dollar receives support from rising oil prices and worsening sentiment across global markets. Market participants are taking into account the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which strengthens inflation expectations and supports US Treasury yields. Against this backdrop, demand for the US currency remains elevated.

For the euro, the situation looks less stable. Expensive energy may increase price pressure in the eurozone, but at the same time it raises risks for industry, consumer spending, and foreign trade. Investors assume that the ECB may have to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates for longer, but this factor has not yet offset the dollar’s advantage linked to higher yields on US assets.

Additional attention this week will be focused on the minutes of the latest Fed meeting and preliminary business activity indices in the US. If the data confirms the resilience of the economy and persistent inflationary pressure, the dollar may continue strengthening. In the absence of signs of a rapid improvement in the external background, EUR/USD is likely to maintain a downward bias.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1620, SL 1.1650, TP 1.1530

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 22 May 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4530.00, SL 4560.00, TP 4440.00



Gold starts the week under pressure, trading around 4530 dollars per ounce. Despite tensions in the Middle East, the metal is receiving limited support, as rising oil prices are strengthening inflation expectations and supporting US bond yields.

An additional pressure factor remains the strong US dollar. Investors are waiting for the minutes of the latest Fed meeting and assessing the likelihood of tight financial conditions being maintained for longer. Against this backdrop, demand for gold may remain restrained.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4530.00, SL 4560.00, TP 4440.00


#SP500: SELL 7408, SL 7460, TP 7250



The S&P 500 enters the week after declining amid rising oil prices and US bond yields. Expensive energy increases inflation concerns, while higher debt market yields reduce the attractiveness of equities, especially after the index’s strong rise in previous weeks.

Investors will focus on the Fed minutes, US business activity, and reports from major companies. If the data confirms persistent price pressure, the market may continue its correction, as expectations for interest rates will remain less favorable for equities.

Trading recommendation: SELL 7408, SL 7460, TP 7250


#BRENT: BUY 111.25, SL 108.25, TP 120.25



Brent starts the week rising above 111 dollars per barrel. The main factor remains the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil exports normally passes. Reports of attacks in the region are creating additional tension.

As long as diplomatic progress remains limited, the market will continue to price in a risk premium. Even with concerns about global demand, the current balance remains supportive for oil: any signs of deterioration in the Middle East may strengthen Brent buying.

Trading recommendation: BUY 111.25, SL 108.25, TP 120.25

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for May 19, 2026 XAUUSD


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​
• Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volume for the current contract is located within the range of 4670.00–4720.00. Currently, trading activity in XAUUSD is occurring below this range, indicating the strength of sellers.



• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum concentration of medium-term trend volume is located in the range of 4690.00–4705.00. Currently, trading in XAUUSD is taking place below this range, indicating the strength of sellers.

• The area of favorable prices for selling from a margin requirement perspective is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the low of May 18, 2026.

• The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is quoted at 4548.30.

• The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is quoted at 4616.60.

• Intraday targets: a retest of the lows from May 18, 2026—4480.00.

• Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the Average Weekly Control Zone—4233.70.



• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

• Sell: 4548.30–4616.60, Take Profit 1–4480.00, Take Profit 2–4233.70.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 20, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is trading near 1.1610 on Wednesday, May 20, after falling to April lows. Pressure on the pair is being driven by a strong US dollar: investors are pricing in a higher probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of the year due to rising inflation risks linked to expensive oil and tensions in the Middle East. Additional support comes from demand for safe-haven assets, which strengthens the dollar against major currencies.

The euro is not receiving stable support from expectations that the ECB may be more cautious with further policy easing. For the market, the yield gap and the dollar’s strength are currently more important, as rising energy prices worsen the outlook for the eurozone economy and increase business costs. Against this backdrop, euro buyers remain cautious, while the pair’s recovery is still limited.

Today, market attention is shifting to the minutes of the latest Fed meeting. If the document confirms the regulator’s readiness to maintain tight financial conditions for longer or discuss a rate hike if inflation remains elevated, the dollar may keep its advantage. For EUR/USD, this keeps the baseline scenario pointed lower toward 1.1520, as long as the external backdrop supports the US currency.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1610, SL 1.1640, TP 1.1520

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for May 21, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 28748.9-29026.4, TP1-29303.9, TP2-30234.9.

• Long-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 24000.0–24300.0, according to quotes. Currently, investment transactions are being conducted on #NQ100 above this range, indicating buyer strength.

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• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 28980.0–29030.0, according to quotes. Currently, investment transactions are being conducted on #NQ100 above this range, indicating buyer strength.

• The area of ​​favorable purchase prices in terms of margin is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2, built from the high of May 20, 2026.

• The quote for the upper boundary of zone 1/4 is 29026.4.

• Upper boundary of the zone: 1/2–28748.9.

• Intraday targets: Renewing the highs from May 20, 2026–29303.9.

• Medium-term goals: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 30234.9.



• Investment recommendations: Buy from within the favorable price range when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 28748.9–29026.4, Take Profit 1–29303.9, Take Profit 2–30234.9.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 22, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is trading near 1.3430 on Friday, May 22, after an attempted recovery during the week. The pound looks more resilient than the euro, but the overall background remains mixed: the US dollar is supported by strong domestic statistics and uncertainty around the Middle East. Investors are in no hurry to sell the US currency, as high oil prices increase caution in global markets.

Pressure on the pound increased after weak UK business activity data. The preliminary composite index for May fell below 50 points, indicating a contraction in business activity for the first time since April last year. This negative signal outweighed the effect of more favorable inflation data and strong GDP for the first quarter, as the market again prices in the risk of weaker demand.

The main scenario for GBP/USD remains downward. The Bank of England remains restrained in its assessments, while market participants mostly expect the rate to be kept unchanged at the next meeting, which limits support for the pound. The dollar retains an advantage due to US macroeconomic data and its status as a safe-haven currency during a period of geopolitical uncertainty. As long as the pair has not consolidated above 1.3460, selling looks preferable.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3430, SL 1.3460, TP 1.3340

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