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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for April 23, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 4735.22-4818.02, TP1-4900.82, TP2-5191.52.

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 4775.00–4815.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the weakness of buyers.

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Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 4780.00-4805.00 and 4810.00-4835.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the weakness of buyers.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the high of 17.04.2026.

Quote of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone – 4818.02.

Quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone – 4735.22.

Intraday targets: renewal of the highs of 17.04.2026 – 4900.82.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ - 5191.52.



Trading recommendations: purchases from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4735.22–4818.02, Take Profit 1–4900.82, Take Profit 2–5191.52.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 24, 2026 EURUSD.

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1685, remaining under pressure after the dollar strengthened at the end of the week. The main factor is demand for the US currency as a safe-haven asset: US-Iran negotiations are showing no progress, while uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices elevated. This is negative for the euro, as rising energy costs increase pressure on the eurozone’s import-dependent economy.

Weak business activity data is an additional factor weighing on the pair. In April, the eurozone private sector contracted at the fastest pace since November 2024, while Germany downgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast due to the energy shock. Against this backdrop, investors are more cautious about the euro’s outlook, even despite expectations that the European Central Bank will keep rates unchanged for now.

The dollar is also supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut rates while assessing the impact of the conflict on inflation and growth. US bond yields remain attractive for dollar buyers. If tensions in the Middle East persist, the pair may continue to decline, so preference is given to selling.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1685, SL 1.1705, TP 1.1595

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 27, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is trading near 1.1730 after recovering from earlier losses, but the fundamental backdrop for the euro remains vulnerable. The dollar is supported by uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations: the risk of renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz is maintaining demand for safe-haven assets. For the eurozone, the situation is sensitive due to its dependence on imported energy: expensive oil increases business costs and worsens growth expectations.

Additional pressure on the euro comes from investor caution ahead of the Fed and ECB decisions this week. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and assess the impact of the energy shock on inflation. The ECB also has to consider the risk of weaker business activity in the region. German consumer confidence data may reinforce doubts about the resilience of the eurozone economy.

Strong dollar growth is not yet evident, as the market still allows for the possibility of renewed negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. However, the balance of factors today is tilted in favor of selling EUR/USD. Energy risks are weighing more heavily on Europe, while the dollar retains an advantage due to its safe-haven status and the Fed’s cautious stance on future rate cuts.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1730, SL 1.1760, TP 1.1640

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 01 May 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4710.00, SL 4680.00, TP 4800.00

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Gold starts the week near $4,710 per ounce after recovering from an intraday decline. Demand is supported by a weaker dollar, uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations, and expectations ahead of the Fed decision. Rising oil prices are increasing inflation risks, so the market will closely assess the regulator’s comments.

On the weekly horizon, the balance remains in favor of buyers: interest in safe-haven assets persists, while investors are waiting for signals on US interest rates. Pressure may arise if the dollar strengthens sharply, but the geopolitical backdrop and caution ahead of the Fed meeting continue to support XAU/USD.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4710.00, SL 4680.00, TP 4800.00


#SP500: BUY 7200, SL 7140, TP 7380




#SP500 enters the week near 7,200 points in futures after reaching new highs last week. Sentiment is supported by strong earnings expectations for major technology companies, especially those related to artificial intelligence. Another supporting factor is the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged.

The main risk for the index is expensive oil: it may increase inflation and worsen forecasts for corporate and consumer spending. Nevertheless, earnings reports from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple may preserve demand for stocks if the companies confirm steady revenue growth and investment activity.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7200, SL 7140, TP 7380



#BRENT: BUY 107.50, SL 104.50, TP 116.50




Brent starts the week near $107.50 per barrel, holding close to its highs since early April. The main reason for the rise is the delay in US-Iran negotiations and restrictions on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The market fears export disruptions, so the risk premium remains high.

On the weekly horizon, oil demand is supported by revised forecasts from major banks and concerns over inventories. Pressure may appear if dialogue resumes or if there are signals of higher supply, but for now, Middle East news keeps the advantage on the buyers’ side.

Trading recommendation: BUY 107.50, SL 104.50, TP 116.50


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for April 28, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: SELL 27850, SL 27950, TP 26450.

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The impulse is gradually beginning to lose strength. The upward movement of the index has clearly slowed down, although it has not completely lost momentum yet. In the near future, the index will likely continue moving upward by inertia, possibly setting another all-time high.

However, the remaining upside potential is already limited. The time for a correction is approaching, and it is expected to be fairly deep.

For trading in this situation, it is recommended to wait for the final upward push and then immediately consider opening short positions. Approximate price levels for entry and placement of a protective stop loss order can also be identified.

Investment idea: SELL 27850, SL 27950, TP 26450.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 29, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

29.04 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is holding near 159.6 on Wednesday, April 29, after several attempts by the market to consolidate above this area. The dollar is supported by uncertainty surrounding the United States and Iran, as well as expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its rate within the 3.50–3.75% range. However, the pair’s upside potential is limited, as the 160.00 level remains a sensitive zone for Japanese authorities and increases the likelihood of measures to support the yen.

The Bank of Japan left its rate unchanged at 0.75%, but the decision was still important for the market: some board members supported a rate increase, while inflation forecasts were revised upward. This strengthened expectations that the regulator may return to raising rates in the summer, especially if Tokyo inflation and retail sales confirm resilient demand. This backdrop makes selling the yen less attractive.

Another factor pressuring USDJPY is Japan’s dependence on energy imports: expensive oil worsens trade conditions, but rising inflation risks increase the likelihood of a response from the Bank of Japan. Ahead of the Fed decision, market participants may lock in profits on long dollar positions, making a downward correction from the 159.65 area the more justified scenario.

Trading recommendation: SELL 159.65, SL 160.15, TP 158.15

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Oil Turbulence, Metals Weaken



Recently, the oil market has been at the center of strong volatility: #BRENT and #WTI prices are reacting to news surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, risks of supply disruptions, and negotiations involving Iran. Any signals of de-escalation push prices lower, while reports of new shipping restrictions drive oil upward again. Against this backdrop, gold and silver are declining: expensive oil fuels inflation expectations, which raises concerns about tighter Federal Reserve policy and a stronger dollar.

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Key volatility drivers:

• Brent — Strait of Hormuz and supply disruption risks Brent is especially sensitive to Middle East news, as a significant share of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. As long as shipping remains under threat, prices react quickly even to isolated statements and incidents.
• WTI — impact of geopolitics and U.S. inventories WTI follows Brent’s movements but also reacts to U.S. oil and fuel inventory data. Declining gasoline and distillate stocks support prices, while rising crude inventories periodically cool buying interest.

Downside factors:

• XAUUSD — pressure from rates and the dollar Gold is declining as the market fears that expensive oil could reignite inflation and delay rate cuts. In such conditions, investors tend to favor dollar-denominated assets over gold.
• XAGUSD — weakness in industrial demand Silver is falling more sharply than gold because it depends not only on safe-haven demand but also on industrial consumption. Concerns about the global economy and high interest rates are adding pressure on XAGUSD.

#BRENT and #WTI remain highly volatile, as the oil market is currently driven by news on the Strait of Hormuz, shipping conditions, and negotiations around Iran. As long as these risks persist, prices may swing sharply in either direction—even within a single day.

XAUUSD and XAGUSD may continue to decline if high oil prices sustain inflation fears and the market does not see clear signals of imminent rate cuts.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for April 30, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4578.99-4647.79, TP1-4510.09, TP2-4354.79.


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• Long-term trend: short. The maximum volume cluster of the current contract is located in the 4780.00–4820.00 range. At the moment, investment activity in XAUUSD is taking place below this range, which indicates sellers’ strength.



• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum volume cluster of the medium-term trend is located in the 4725.00–4745.00 and 4590.00–4610.00 ranges. At the moment, investment activity in XAUUSD is taking place below these ranges, which indicates sellers’ strength.

• The area of favorable selling prices from the margin collateral perspective is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the low of 29.04.2026.

• The quote of the lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4578.99.

• The quote of the lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4647.79.

• Intraday targets: renewal of the lows from 29.04.2026 — 4510.09.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the Average Weekly Control Zone — 4354.79.



• Trading recommendations: sell from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 4578.99–4647.79, Take Profit 1 — 4510.09, Take Profit 2 — 4354.79.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 1, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:



GBP/USD is trading around 1.3590–1.3592 after the latest price update. The pound is supported by the Bank of England’s decision to keep the interest rate at 3.75%. The 8–1 vote showed that part of the committee is already ready to consider a rate increase, which strengthens interest in the British currency amid persistent inflationary pressure.

The UK economy remains affected by expensive energy and uncertainty around the Middle East, but these factors are precisely what force the regulator to remain cautious about lowering borrowing costs. Inflation rising to 3.3% in March and Bank of England warnings about a possible further acceleration in prices support expectations that the interest rate will remain high for longer than previously expected.

The fundamental outlook for GBP/USD remains upward. The dollar is still supported after the Fed’s decision, but the market has already largely priced in the continuation of high US rates. The pound is supported by the risk of upward revisions to inflation forecasts and the likelihood of a stronger Bank of England response if higher energy prices continue to affect consumers and businesses.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3590, SL 1.3560, TP 1.3680

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 4, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:



USD/JPY is trading near 156.35 after a noticeable decline amid yen strengthening. The main factor putting pressure on the pair is expectations of new actions by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market after sharp movements at the end of last week and warnings about readiness to restrain currency weakness.

The yen is additionally supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue normalizing policy if price growth and import-related pressure remain elevated. At the same time, the dollar is supported by high US yields and uncertainty around the Fed, but this factor has already been partly priced in after the decision to keep rates unchanged.

In the near term, risks for USD/JPY are shifted to the downside, as market participants are not ready to actively buy the pair near levels where the probability of Japanese intervention increases. Low liquidity due to the holiday period raises the likelihood of sharp movements, so pressure on the dollar against the yen may persist.

Trading recommendation: SELL 156.35, SL 156.85, TP 154.85

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