Instaforex Analysis

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. April 7. Risk Is A Noble Cause, But Not Under Current Circumstances



The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very weakly and reluctantly on Monday. This is not surprising, as according to the Catholic calendar, April 6 is Easter Monday. Firstly, it is a holiday. Secondly, by April 6, Donald Trump could have given the order for a new air operation in Iran. As a result, traders were not inclined to open positions from the beginning. After several weeks, it can be confidently said that the market has not rushed to buy or sell the dollar for quite some time. We have regularly stated that no matter how strong the geopolitical factor is, the market cannot constantly react to it. The war between Ukraine and Russia has been going on for five years, yet no one among investors and traders is overly concerned about it anymore. Initially, military actions in Eastern Europe significantly impacted oil prices and oil flows.

Therefore, we believe that geopolitics has started to recede into the background. For now, it's just the initial stage of this retreat, as the macroeconomic background continues to be ignored by the market. However, we no longer see daily dollar growth, even though the situation in the Middle East is not improving. In our view, the market is not in a wait-and-see position but rather in a last hope position. Trump has postponed the final deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for the third time. This deadline now expires today at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. What will happen next is likely something everyone can guess. Iran continues to hold its position and is not prepared to make any concessions. We hear about negotiations between Tehran and Washington only from Trump's lips, but it's difficult to believe in the existence of negotiations when Trump threatens total destruction of Iran almost every day. We believe that in these circumstances, it is best to rely on fortune-telling with coffee grounds. Trump's actions are impossible to predict, and Iran does not confirm the presence of negotiations.

Numerous insider reports often contradict each other, as every journalist has their own source, and sources share vastly differing information. Therefore, as before, it is best to wait for reliable information and work with it. We would like to remind you that, at this time, all fundamental, macroeconomic, and technical factors are of no significance. The price has been swinging up and down in recent weeks, not because it is in a range, but because the geopolitical backdrop is constantly changing—approximately every two days. This is one of those rare cases where sideways movement fully reflects the news background.

Regarding the medium-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair, we still believe that if the conflict in the Middle East concludes soon, the European currency will resume its rise and quickly return to this year's highs. The dollar's only chance lies in further escalation in the Middle East.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 7 is 79 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1469 and 1.1627 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and has formed a "bullish" divergence, which serves as another warning of the potential completion of the downward trend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair on April 8. The Songs and Dances Continue



The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very sluggishly on Tuesday, ultimately settling into a sideways channel. On the 4-hour time frame, it is now clear that the price has traded primarily between 1.1450 and 1.1620 over the past few weeks. Thus, we are not just looking at a semblance of a flat market but a genuine flat. However, this is a very rare type of flat, where all movements leading to its formation are indeed caused by specific events.

Typically, a flat forms not because every subsequent piece of news contradicts the previous ones, forcing the price to jump up and down. A flat forms when the market needs a pause to distribute or accumulate new positions. Therefore, the price moves sideways, and during this time, the market either ignores fundamental and macroeconomic events or reacts to them only minimally. Currently, the situation is the opposite. Each subsequent geopolitical event contradicts the previous one, causing the price to fluctuate.

The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop is being ignored by the market. The key question now is whether the EUR/USD pair has reached its "bottom." Many experts are discussing a "bottom" in the market, but they also acknowledge that the pair may continue to decline if the situation in the Middle East worsens. The general consensus in the current context is as follows: in the long term, the euro is expected to rise due to the contradictory and destructive policies of Trump; in the short term, the dollar could strengthen due to complicated geopolitical issues; if the geopolitical landscape does not change drastically in the near future, flat trends will persist. Therefore, traders are left to wait for new developments in the Middle East.

It seems they won't have to wait long. Just yesterday, Iran attacked a petrochemical facility in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. Tonight, Donald Trump may order another bombing of Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not unblocked. Interestingly, in recent days, some vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but the terms of the agreement with Tehran remain unknown. Thus, the situation around Hormuz is officially improving, though a complete unblocking is still not on the table. Additionally, it has been reported that Tehran has provided Washington with a list of 10 points necessary to resolve all disputes. Specifically, Iran is demanding security guarantees, a cessation of strikes, reparations for destroyed infrastructure, and a complete lifting of sanctions. Does anyone believe that Trump will meet these conditions? Moreover, Iran now wants to charge $2 million from each tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz... In our view, a new wave of conflict in the Middle East is inevitable.




The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 8 is 68 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1502 and 1.1638 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned down, indicating a shift in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the completion of the downward trend.



Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair on April 9. The TACO Principle Haunts the Markets Again



The EUR/USD currency pair soared upward by at least 130 points on Wednesday, reacting to the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. We will discuss the ceasefire in more detail, as there is indeed a lot to say on this matter. But let's start with the facts. Last night, Donald Trump announced that an agreement had been reached between Tehran and Washington for a two-week ceasefire. Interestingly, the basis for the ceasefire was not the 15-point list of ultimatums from Trump, but rather a 10-point list of demands from Iran.

The U.S. president called it fair and stated that the next two weeks would be spent reaching a full ceasefire. Iran, for its part, committed to opening the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, which immediately led to a drop in oil prices from $106 to $90. In the currency market, only the U.S. dollar depreciated. Overall, exactly what we expected happened. As soon as Iran and the U.S. began official negotiations and the markets "sensed" a ceasefire, the dollar lost all support. The dollar is no longer of interest as a safe currency and "safe haven."

For several weeks, it may continue to fall simply because it has lost its only support factor—geopolitics. The market may then remember the vast amounts of macroeconomic data from the U.S. that have been actively ignored over the past two months. It may recall the impending divergence in monetary policy among the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Fed. It may also be remembered that Donald Trump's policies, which led to a significant depreciation of the dollar last year, have not changed at all. All these factors could return the EUR/USD pair to an upward trajectory.

Naturally, such a scenario will only be possible if the conflicting parties genuinely make every effort over the next two weeks to resolve the conflict. Otherwise, everything will likely revert quite quickly to the situation of 2026. However, at this time, one cannot help but wish for the end of the conflict. Interestingly, the euro's exchange rate quickly recovered to the 1.1700-1.1750 range, suggesting it has only about 400 points to reach this year's highs. What are 400 points when there are still three-quarters of a year left? Recall that, like many other analysts, we believe that 2026 will be the year of a new decline for the American currency.

Of course, we cannot know when Trump will begin the next war or what policies the American president will adhere to until the elections in November. But if he wants to retain at least one chamber of Congress, he will need to quickly improve relations with the American electorate. Currently, the American electorate is set against Trump, just as they were six years ago. Americans are ready to vote for anyone but Trump; under the current circumstances, that means any Democrat. Interestingly, on the daily time frame, despite the significant drop in February and March, the EUR/USD pair has not fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci level... just as it did before...



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 9 is 83 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1606 and 1.1772 on Thursday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a potential trend change. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory, signaling a potential downward correction in the near future.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on April 10. The Market Is Unfazed by the Resumption of Fire

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Thursday, though the market move was rather unclear. Recall that the ceasefire between Iran, the U.S., and Israel did not last even a day. By Wednesday afternoon, Israel had attacked Lebanon, Iran had struck Bahrain and Kuwait, and the U.S. also launched strikes on oil refineries in Iran. It seemed like the best scenario for the U.S. dollar could not be imagined. However, this time, the market ignored the resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East. The only explanation is that the market believes the war is now temporary.

Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. continue and have a chance of long-term success. Therefore, the dollar continues to weaken amid decreasing tensions in the Middle East, even though the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. It is also important to note the GDP report in the third estimate for the fourth quarter in the U.S. Recall that the first estimate was 1.4%, the second was 0.7%, and the third came in at a mere 0.5%. Thus, the American economy slowed three times in the same quarter. Naturally, this report did not boost the sentiment of dollar buyers, but we do not believe it was fully factored in by traders. The market has ignored almost all macroeconomic data over the past two months. On the 5-minute time frame on Thursday, exactly one trading signal was formed. During the European trading session, the pair bounced off the area of 1.1657-1.1666 and moved only upward for the remaining part of the day. As a result, traders who opened long positions could earn around 35-40 pips.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated March 31. The illustration of the weekly time frame clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly declining amid geopolitical events. Traders are mass-selling the euro in favor of the U.S. dollar. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar is once again acting as a "reserve currency," which ensures high demand for it. We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting a strengthening of the euro. However, there are plenty of factors that could lead to the decline of the American dollar. The war in the Middle East has temporarily made the dollar super attractive, but once this factor expires, everything could revert to the previous state. In the long term, the euro could fall to as low as 1.06 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the maintenance of a "bullish" trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 100, while the number of shorts increased by 8,900. Consequently, the net position has decreased by another 8,800 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair has begun a new upward trend. However, a new escalation in the Middle East could once again shift traders' trading priorities, so any rise should be approached with caution. In the near future, we need to determine whether a ceasefire exists, whether further negotiations will take place between the parties, and how successful they may be. This will affect the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair. For April 10, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1542) and Kijun-sen line (1.1614). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a stop-loss order to breakeven if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips.


This will help safeguard against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Friday, Germany will publish the second estimate of March inflation, while the U.S. will release March inflation data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. We believe traders may react only to the U.S. consumer price index, and even then, it's not guaranteed. Geopolitics remains the primary concern for traders in terms of importance.

Trading Recommendations: On Friday, traders may consider short positions if the price bounces from the 1.1750-1.1760 area, targeting 1.1657-1.1666. Long positions can be held with a target of 1.1750-1.1760, as the price has rebounded from the 1.1657-1.1666 area.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. Weekly Preview. Negotiations in Pakistan as the Foundation for Everything



The EUR/USD currency pair will attempt to develop an upward impulse in the new week. Last week showed that the market believes in successful negotiations between Iran and the US, but anticipates they may be difficult and prolonged. However, as we have already stated, a long path to peace is better than the continuation of war. This is the first factor for a potential rise of the euro.

The second factor is the fading importance of geopolitical factors. We have previously mentioned that geopolitics has its own "expiration date." In other words, if the war in Iran continues for another year, it is unlikely that the US dollar will keep rising solely on this factor, while ignoring all others. Recall that in the last two months, almost all macroeconomic reports and fundamental events (for example, central bank meetings) were ignored. Even on Friday, when an important inflation report was released in the US, there was no market reaction.

On Thursday, the US released a disappointing fourth-quarter GDP report, which also did not reflect on the charts. Thus, geopolitical factors will remain in focus but in a somewhat different form. As of Sunday, the negotiations in Islamabad have not yielded positive results. However, they could resume soon, according to both sides. Therefore, we would not entirely dismiss the possibility of a ceasefire. Two scenarios are possible. The first is that peace is signed. Naturally, in this case, the euro will continue to rise. More accurately, the US dollar will continue to fall as the market no longer needs a "safe haven." Recall that over the last two months, the dollar has grown solely due to geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Had the market paid attention to other factors, the dollar would not have risen by even 200 points.

At the same time, the upward trend in the EUR/USD pair remains valid on both the daily and weekly timeframes. Therefore, we expect only growth in 2026. The second scenario is that peace will not be signed, negotiations will completely fail, and the war will continue. In this case, the euro will find it difficult to continue rising, as demand for the US dollar will increase again. Last week, the market granted the euro a certain degree of trust, reflected in hopes for an end to the war in the Middle East.

If these hopes do not materialize, the market will immediately revert to the situation five days ago. Should we pay attention to the macroeconomic background? It might be worth it, but only by habit. Reports on industrial production and inflation will be published in the Eurozone in their second estimates. Both reports can be considered secondary. We believe that everything will depend on geopolitics.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 11 is 83 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1644 and 1.1810 on Monday. The upper regression channel has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, an upward trend may actually resume now. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, signaling a possible near-term downward correction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD Pair for April 14. The Strait of Hormuz: Both a Joke and a Tragedy



The GBP/USD currency pair traded in a downward trend on Monday, which was completely predictable. Some experts likely expected that by noon, the dollar would rise by 200 pips, but why rush for the market? It has been ignoring all non-geopolitical factors, and there is plenty of time to buy the US currency. Therefore, we believe the dollar will begin a systematic rise amid new escalations in the Middle East. What does this new escalation entail? It involves Trump's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz. Many traders may ask: why block a strait that is already blocked?

Trump wants to block it for Iranian tankers and ships. Simply put, Iran has blocked the Strait to prevent oil from hostile countries in the region from entering global markets. In essence, this is blackmail against the whole world, because aggression against Iran has been displayed by the US, and high prices for fuel, oil, and gas have affected everyone.

Now, the American president wants to make Iran suffer by using the same method—simply cutting off oil supplies from Iran to China and other countries in the Far East. How feasible is this? Frankly, Trump's threats seem unrealistic. Trump has already promised to "destroy the Iranian nation," to seize Kharg Island, and much more. However, almost any military expert will tell you that an operation of this magnitude would result in huge losses for the American military and enormous financial outlays. And their positive outcome is by no means guaranteed. Essentially, such an operation is an adventure, and the leader of the White House understands this very well.

However, Trump has little leverage left. He no longer has anything to pressure Iran into signing a peace agreement on Washington's terms. Iran has shown its readiness to defend its political regime, the direction of its international and domestic policies, and its independence and sovereignty for as long as necessary. Trump's plans do not include bombing Iran for the next few years, especially since Iran actively retaliates against those countries within range of its missiles and drones. Meanwhile, oil prices are rising, and Iran threatens that, in the event of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it will also block the Bab-al-Mandab Strait, which would certainly push oil prices to $150-$200 per barrel.

Who would be blamed in this case? The same person as now—Donald Trump. Who will vote for the Republican Party in November 2026 if oil prices rise by another $50-$100 per barrel? No one. Therefore, Trump is desperately trying to find a way out of a situation he himself created. Currently, we see little chance of the conflict ending on American terms. Instead of a cheap dollar, Trump may now revel in a rising dollar and face tightening rather than easing from the Federal Reserve, as inflation jumped by 0.9% year-on-year in March.



Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD on April 15. Euro Continues Its Path to Victory

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M




The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, with the move not objectively triggered by local macroeconomic or fundamental events. It was not driven even by geopolitical events. Reports continue to come from the Middle East and the White House, which are not at all in line with the concepts of "de-escalation" and "ending the conflict." Specifically, Donald Trump on Monday announced his own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is hardly a positive development. However, the two-week ceasefire continues, and so far, neither side of the conflict has violated it. Rumor has it that negotiations may resume this week, which is a positive sign. Better unpromising talks than continuing the war. We believe the euro has been rising for over a week because the shelf life of geopolitics has expired. We have repeatedly warned that the dollar cannot and will not continue to rise solely on the basis of one factor. There are simply no other growth factors for it. In technical terms, the upward trend continues without any doubt. It is difficult to say how long the euro's rise will last, but traders currently have technical benchmarks to react to changes in market sentiment. If the war in the Middle East resumes, the dollar may resume growth, but we continue to expect the upward trend to continue in 2025 in any case. In yesterday's 5-minute timeframe, two buy signals were generated. The price rebounded twice from the area of 1.1750-1.1760, providing traders with two opportunities to open long positions at the very beginning of the European trading session. By the end of the day, the pair moved up about a minimum of 25 pips, which could have been earned quite easily.

COT Report



The latest COT report is dated April 7. The illustration for the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly declining amid geopolitical events. Traders are massively shedding the euro in favor of the U.S. dollar. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar now serves as a "reserve currency," ensuring strong demand for it. We see no fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro; however, there are plenty that would weaken the dollar. The war in the Middle East temporarily made the dollar super-attractive, but once this factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to normal. In the long term, the euro may fall to 1.06 (the trendline), but the upward trend will remain intact. Currently, the pair has not deviated significantly from the descending trend line, which has been broken several times. The position of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group increased by 800, while the number of shorts increased by 8,800. Accordingly, the net position decreased by another 8,000 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend. A new escalation in the Middle East could once again shift traders' priorities; thus, any growth in the pair should be approached cautiously. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East remains stably tense but is not deteriorating, so there are also few compelling reasons for the U.S. dollar to strengthen further. Currently, there are no technical grounds to expect a decline. On April 15, we identified the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1583) and Kijun-sen line (1.1730). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set the Stop Loss order to breakeven if the price has moved in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Wednesday, a report on industrial production will be published in the European Union, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will also give another speech. In the U.S., the event calendar is essentially empty.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Review. April 16. The Northern Impulse Continues



The EUR/USD currency pair failed to extend its upward move on Wednesday, raising alarms among many experts. In their opinion, the bulls have squeezed the most out of the current situation, and further upward movement will require solid reasons. We believe this is both true and not entirely correct. It is important to note that over the past week and a half, the euro has easily and simply recovered more than 50% from its preceding decline, based solely on market belief that the war in the Middle East has ended and that the Strait of Hormuz will eventually be unblocked.

Essentially, traders did not even need specifics on this broad topic that had dragged the EUR/USD pair down for two consecutive months. What can we confidently discuss now? Only that there are currently no hostilities in the Middle East. This is a fact, and it is a positive fact. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and it is unknown how long it will remain so. Negotiations with Iran have de facto not been concluded, but they are also not currently ongoing. No ceasefire agreements have been announced. All we see is a cessation of hostilities.

It's worth reminding that this very scenario was indirectly voiced by some experts, including us. Donald Trump has been unable and will not be able to force Iran to abandon its nuclear developments and weapons, which has left America in a stalemate. The goals have not been achieved (whatever Trump might say), and further conflict cannot proceed without risking the loss of both chambers of Congress in November.

As a result, Trump and JD Vance have repeatedly stated that America has won and that continuing the fight is pointless, as all goals have been achieved. By the way, what these "achieved goals" are remains unknown. The U.S. president has wanted to denuclearize Iran for two years straight, and for two years, he has achieved nothing. What were the other objectives? To kill Ali Khamenei? What would that have accomplished when Tehran's political course remains unchanged? Thus, the conflict cannot be considered resolved. It should be noted that last year, Trump struck Iranian nuclear facilities, and then the conflict in the Middle East seemed to have exhausted itself.

After all, Trump then proclaimed the total destruction of Iran's nuclear potential. We wouldn't be surprised if, after the elections, Trump announces that Iran is ready to launch nuclear missiles at the U.S. tomorrow, necessitating a new military operation. And everything will start over. It is crucial for Trump not to lose the elections in Congress completely; after that, his rhetoric may undergo significant changes.

We are nearly certain that Iran understands this. As for the dollar's decline, the shelf life of the geopolitical factor has simply expired. What does the U.S. dollar have left in its arsenal? Nothing. On the daily timeframe, the pair has tested the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator, which accounts for the pause observed now.




The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 16 is 66 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1734 and 1.1866 on Thursday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a shift in trend to a downward one. However, an upward trend may actually resume at this time. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area and formed a "bearish" divergence, warning of a possible downward pullback in the near future.



Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Signals for XAU/USD on April 16-18, 2026: buy if rebounds from $4,770 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)



The XAU/USD pair is trading around $4,818 following a consolidation above the 200 EMA, showing a positive signal. The chart above shows signs of exhaustion, suggesting that gold is expected to face downward pressure in the coming days. Gold has made every effort to consolidate above the 200 EMA, rebounding several times above this zone. However, the bullish momentum was unable to push gold toward the two expected levels of $4,890 and even $5,000.

On the H4 chart, we can see that gold has reached its early April high around $4,860. Since then, we have seen a technical correction, so the instrument is likely to face downward pressure in the coming days. If this scenario plays out, XAU is expected to reach the 200 EMA around $4,778, but if there is a break below the 7/8 Murray line, it could continue to fall.

A technical rebound in gold above the 200 EMA, the 21 SMA, and the lower band of the uptrend channel—which converge around $4,778—could be a good entry point for long positions with targets at $5,000. Conversely, a sharp drop below the 200 EMA and a decisive break of the uptrend channel could signal a trend reversal, and gold could quickly sink to $4,687, and even down the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD for April 20. Ceasefire without a Ceasefire

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M



The EUR/USD currency pair moved in a completely predictable direction until the evening on Friday. In the first half of the day, with no macroeconomic or fundamental information, volatility was zero, and the market moved sideways. As evening approached, information about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz came in, triggering a decline in the US dollar. Towards the end of the day and week, the pair plummeted by 90 pips, for which there seems to be no logical explanation at first glance. Nevertheless, we can hypothesize that the market has exhausted its positivity regarding the agreement between Iran and the US, the ceasefire in the Middle East, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar fell for two consecutive weeks and, as we have established, every fairy tale eventually comes to an end. From a technical perspective, the pair remains in an upward trend on the hourly timeframe, as evidenced by the trend line and the price's location above the critical Kijun-sen line and the 1.1750-1.1760 area. However, most likely we will see a new decline this week, at least a corrective one. The events of Friday were very interesting, but two days have passed since then, during which Iran managed to close the Strait of Hormuz again, and the situation between the US and Iran has once again escalated to the brink. Thus, Donald Trump announced his readiness to resume military operations in the region if the next round of negotiations fails. As we warned, a temporary ceasefire is absolutely not a guarantee of sustainable peace. On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Friday. First, the pair overcame the area 1.1830-1.1837; however, this signal proved to be blatantly false. But the next sell signal allowed traders not only to recover all losses from the first trade but to remain in the profit by the end of the day.


COT Report





The latest COT report is dated April 14. The illustration on the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly declining amid geopolitical events. Traders are dumping the euro in favor of the US dollar. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar is currently acting as a "reserve currency," which ensures high demand for it. We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro, while there are still enough factors that would weaken the American dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when this factor reaches its "expiration date," everything will return to normal. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of 1.06$ (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Currently, the pair has not moved significantly away from the descending trend line, which has been broken several times. The location of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between the bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 13,700, while the number of shorts decreased by 19,900. Accordingly, the net position increased by 33,600 contracts in just one week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. A new escalation in the Middle East may again shift traders' trading priorities; therefore, a noticeable decline is quite possible in the new week. The situation in the Middle East remains tense but is not worsening, so there are also a few strong reasons for the US dollar to strengthen further. There are no technical reasons to expect the pair to drop below the level of 1.1400. For April 20, we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the lines of Senkou Span B (1.1658) and Kijun-sen (1.1769). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price has moved in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Monday, there will be another speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde in the European Union, who will surely comment on the latest developments in the Middle East and in relations between Iran and the US. In the States, the event calendar is completely empty. Geopolitics will again come to the forefront after the events of Saturday and Sunday.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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