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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 25, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:



GBP/USD is holding near 1.3430 and remains supported by expectations surrounding the Bank of England’s policy rate. At its March 19 meeting, the regulator unanimously kept the rate at 3.75% and stressed that the rise in global energy prices is already affecting fuel and utility costs for British households. The Bank of England made it clear that it is ready to respond if the external shock begins to feed more strongly into domestic prices.

The pound is also being supported by the bond market. According to Reuters, yields on two-year UK government bonds rose by around 60 basis points in March, and market participants even began to consider the possibility of a rate increase later this year rather than a cut. This has boosted sterling’s appeal relative to other European currencies and revived demand for the pound after a weak start to the month.

Sterling still has weak points: a recent KPMG survey showed worsening consumer sentiment due to concerns over food and energy prices. However, for the currency market, the difference in rate expectations and the Bank of England’s readiness to maintain a firm stance for longer matter more at the moment. As long as this factor remains dominant, the baseline scenario for the current date stays moderately bullish for GBP/USD.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3430, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3520

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[Volkov Yuriy]

#Brent and #WTI: how a single post crashed oil



What happened on March 23:

On March 23, the oil market experienced a sharp decline. Within a few hours, #Brent crude lost more than $10, falling from $110 to $93, while #WTI dropped from $100 to $84. However, it was not the decline itself that drew attention, but what preceded it.

According to Financial Times and Bloomberg, large trades were executed just 15 minutes before Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about “productive negotiations with Iran.” Within 27 seconds, around 6:50 a.m. New York time, about 6,200 futures contracts on #Brent and #WTI were sold. The total value of these transactions was approximately $580 million. Immediately after Trump’s post (at 7:04 a.m.), oil prices plunged, while stock indices moved higher.

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Denial from Iran:

Later, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf described the reports about negotiations as “fake news aimed at manipulating markets.” There has been no official confirmation from the Iranian side.

White House reaction:

The U.S. administration called suspicions of insider trading “unsubstantiated and irresponsible,” adding that illegal actions by its employees would not be tolerated. The identities of the traders who executed the $580 million worth of deals have not been disclosed.

Current situation (March 25):

Oil has partially held its levels after “Trump’s Monday.” Today, #Brent is trading around $95, while #WTI is near $87. Market participants remain uncertain: on the one hand, geopolitical risks persist (military presence in the region, potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz), while on the other hand, U.S. oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels, easing fears of a supply shortage.

FreshForex analysts note: the market is currently moving not around real supply flows, but around news whose reliability is difficult to verify. The $580 million in trades executed 15 minutes before Trump’s post showed that those who entered the market before public information captured the move. In the coming days, #Brent and #WTI may remain under pressure, as the market quickly removes the “risk premium” when signals about negotiations appear. If the diplomatic narrative does not fade, quotes may continue to decline, although volatility is likely to remain sharp. When the market reacts to a headline within minutes, the key question is whether you can open a trade before the news becomes official and starts influencing the price.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for March 26, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 23995.7–24273.2, TP1-24550.7, TP2-25225.0.

Long-term trend: bearish. The maximum volume concentration of the current contract is located in the 24170.0–24330.0 price range. At the moment, investment activity in #NQ100 is taking place below this range, which indicates buyer weakness.



Medium-term trend: bullish. The maximum volume concentration of the medium-term trend is located in the 24350.0–24410.0 price range. At the moment, investment activity in #NQ100 is taking place below this range, which indicates buyer weakness.

The favorable buying area from the margin requirement perspective is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones plotted from the high of 23.03.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 24273.2.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 23995.7.

Intraday targets: a retest of the highs from 23.03.2026 — 24550.7.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ — 25225.0.



Investment recommendations: buy within the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 23995.7–24273.2, Take Profit 1: 24550.7, Take Profit 2: 25225.0.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 27, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

16:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

USDJPY:



USD/JPY is holding near 159.50–159.60 on Friday, remaining close to this year’s highs. The pair is being supported by demand for the dollar: high oil prices have increased concerns about global inflation, while the market has reduced expectations for US rate cuts before the end of the year. This is especially important for the yen, because the combination of expensive energy and capital flows into the dollar worsens the position of a country that depends heavily on fuel imports.

At the same time, the room for further gains in the pair is already limited. Market discussion about possible action by the Japanese authorities to support the yen is intensifying, and the issue of intervention has become important again as the exchange rate approaches the 160 mark. In addition, the Bank of Japan remains ready for further policy tightening if underlying inflation pressure stays firm. Even without immediate decisions, this creates the risk of sharp pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Fundamentally, the balance is becoming less clear-cut. On the one hand, the dollar is supported by geopolitical tension and US yields. On the other hand, the weak yen is already too painful for the Japanese economy, while expectations of a response from the authorities are limiting the pair’s upside potential. At these levels, a corrective decline in USD/JPY looks like the more likely scenario.

Trading recommendation: SELL 159.55, SL 160.15, TP 157.75

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 30, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to deliver a speech

EURUSD:




The euro is trading around 1.1500 and remains under pressure as investors move into the US dollar as a safe-haven amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and the risk of disruptions to energy supplies. Rising oil prices are strengthening inflation concerns and supporting demand for the dollar, especially toward the end of the month.

An additional factor is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut rates until the impact of higher energy costs shows up in US inflation. This keeps US Treasury yields elevated and makes the dollar more attractive relative to the euro, even if some negative factors have already been priced in.

From the eurozone side, support for the euro is limited by the risk of slower economic growth due to expensive energy. At the same time, discussions of possible ECB measures to contain inflation may slow the decline. For today, the key driver is overall demand for the dollar and geopolitics-related headlines.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1500, SL 1.1520, TP 1.1440


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 03 April 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4505.39, SL 4520.00, TP 4370.00



Gold is holding near $4,505.39 per ounce, but the market is increasingly pricing in the risk that high energy prices will fuel inflation and force the Fed to keep rates at current levels for longer. This supports the U.S. dollar and makes bonds more attractive, temporarily reducing interest in gold as a safe haven.

This week, the spotlight is on Jerome Powell’s remarks and key U.S. labor-market data. If the tone remains cautious and offers no hint of an imminent rate cut, pressure on prices may intensify, although geopolitical headlines can still trigger sharp but short-lived bursts of demand.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4505.39, SL 4520.00, TP 4370.00


#SP500: SELL 6377, SL 6400, TP 6150



The S&P 500 is starting the week near 6,377 points amid rising oil prices and growing inflation concerns. Expensive energy increases business costs and weighs on consumer spending, making investors more cautious and prompting them to reduce exposure to risk assets.

The focus is on Fed signals and a batch of U.S. data on employment and business activity. Strong figures could reinforce expectations that rates will stay higher for longer, while weak data could intensify fears of an economic slowdown. In both cases, choppy trading and elevated volatility are likely.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6377, SL 6400, TP 6150


#BRENT: BUY 115.30, SL 112.80, TP 125.80



#BRENT is trading around $115.30 per barrel, as the market factors in the risk of supply disruptions due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and logistical issues along key shipping routes. Any news of new restrictions or infrastructure damage quickly adds a “risk premium” to prices.

This week’s drivers include negotiation headlines and actions by both consumer and producer countries, including potential measures to stabilize supply. If tensions persist, oil may remain elevated; if signs of de-escalation emerge, sharp pullbacks are possible as speculative demand fades quickly.

Trading recommendation: BUY 115.30, SL 112.80, TP 125.80

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for March 31, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 64500, SL 68500, TP 55000.​




Bitcoin remains under heavy pressure, yet it continues to attempt to recover from its weakened position. This leads to short-term corrective spikes. Ultimately, the price keeps falling lower and lower.

Important levels lie ahead; a breakout of these levels will trigger a sharp price movement. This is due to a cluster of protective STOP LOSS orders, the activation of which will lead to increased additional selling.

Thus, the situation remains bearish, and a further decline in price is expected due to the development of wave (c) of the zigzag.

Trading idea: SELL at 64,500, SL at 68,500, TP at 55,000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 1, 2026 GBPUSD

Events to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBPUSD:




GBP/USD is holding around 1.3240–1.3250, but the pound remains vulnerable: for the UK, rising energy prices and supply disruptions are a blow to import costs and inflation, while investors assess fiscal resilience amid higher borrowing costs.

The Bank of England rate outlook remains tense: some participants expect a tougher response to inflation, yet economists’ surveys point to a high probability of keeping the rate unchanged. This uncertainty reduces the pound’s appeal, especially if incoming business activity and consumer data continue to show cooling.

From the US side, the key focus this week is the jobs report: strong figures would support the dollar through expectations of higher rates, while weak data would temporarily weaken it. Against the backdrop of geopolitical risks and expensive energy, today’s base case favors the dollar, so downside potential in GBP/USD looks more pronounced. This keeps demand for the dollar in place.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3250, SL 1.3275, TP 1.3155

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for April 2, 2026 NQ100
​

#NQ100: BUY 23,615.1–23,892.6, TP1–24,170.1, TP2–25,001.6.

• Long-term trend: bearish. The maximum volume concentration for the current contract is located in the range of 24050.0–24250.0. Currently, trading activity on #NQ100 is occurring below this range, indicating the strength of sellers.



• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum volume cluster for the medium-term trend is located in the range of 23,700.0–23,760.0. Currently, trading activity on #NQ100 is occurring below this range, indicating weakness among buyers.

• The area of favorable prices for buying from a margin requirement perspective lies between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the April 1, 2026 high.

• The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is at 23,892.6.

• The upper boundary of zone 1/2 is quoted at 23,615.1.

• Intraday targets: a new high above the April 1, 2026 high of 24,170.1.

• Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the Golden Weekly Control Zone at 25,001.6.



• Investment recommendations: buy from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 23615.1–23892.6, Take Profit 1: 24170.1, Take Profit 2: 25001.6.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Inflation shock and geopolitics are driving prices higher!



Global financial markets are ending the week in a state of heightened activity. Geopolitical tensions, a surge in energy prices, and a reassessment of interest rate expectations have intensified fluctuations across several market segments. Traders are closely watching #BRENT and #WTI crude oil, as well as gold (XAUUSD), stock indices, and major currency pairs.



The commodities market continues to show a wide range of price swings. After a strong rally in March, oil prices began to correct sharply: during trading, #BRENT fell below $100 per barrel, losing more than 2% in a single day. At the same time, March itself turned out to be exceptionally strong for the oil market: #BRENT gained 64% over the month, while #WTI rose by around 52%. Such moves traditionally increase volatility in currency pairs, stock indices, and energy sector shares.

At the same time, investors have increased their interest in safe-haven assets. Gold (XAUUSD) climbed to $4,728.75 per troy ounce, while metal futures reached $4,755.70. Gold prices have now been rising for a fourth consecutive trading session, highlighting strong demand for defensive instruments amid ongoing uncertainty.

Fresh macroeconomic data has also added to the volatility. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in March, up from 50.8 a month earlier, while Germany’s PMI increased to 52.2 from 50.9. Formally, this signals an expansion in business activity; however, the growth was accompanied by a sharp rise in costs, more expensive logistics, and supply chain disruptions. These are precisely the conditions that often amplify moves in instruments such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, and #DAX30.

U.S. data is also adding to the intrigue. According to ADP, employment in the U.S. private sector increased by 62,000 jobs in March, keeping market participants focused on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Any new signals regarding inflation, interest rates, or geopolitics could quickly shift market sentiment and intensify volatility across a broad range of assets.

In an environment of elevated volatility, it is essential for traders to react quickly to changes in market conditions and take advantage of the opportunities that arise during strong price movements. FreshForex analysts recommend paying special attention to instruments such as #BRENT, #WTI, XAUUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, #SP500, and #DAX30, viewing corrective pullbacks as potential entry opportunities.

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