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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for February 24, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 24530.4-24807.9, TP1-25085.4, TP2-26059.9.

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• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 25500.0–25800.0, according to quotes. Currently, investment transactions are being conducted on #NQ100 below this range, indicating sellers' strength. #NQ100: BUY 24530.4–24807.9, TP1–25085.4, TP2–26059.9.



• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 24780.0–24840.0, according to quotes. Currently, investment transactions are being conducted on #NQ100 within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.

• The area of ​​favorable buying prices in terms of margin is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2, built from the high of February 20, 2026.

• The upper boundary of zone 1/4 is 24807.9.

• The upper boundary of zone 1/2 is 24530.4.

• Intraday targets: updating the highs of February 20, 2026, at 25085.4.

• Medium-term targets: testing the lower boundary of the ZNKZ at 26059.9. #NQ100: BUY 24530.4-24807.9, TP1-25085.4, TP2-26059.9.



• Investment recommendations: buy from the favorable price range when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 24530.4-24807.9, Take Profit 1-25085.4, Take Profit 2-26059.9.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for February 25, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

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On February 25, 2026, GBP/USD is trading around 1.351–1.352, but the pound is under pressure as markets price in potential policy easing from the Bank of England. Investors are increasingly factoring in the probability of rate cuts in coming months amid signs of cooling activity: softer labor market conditions and slower income growth reduce the resilience of domestic demand and increase sensitivity to borrowing costs.

The UK inflation picture has also become less supportive for sterling. As headline inflation eases, the need to keep rates high for an extended period diminishes. In this context, market participants closely monitor guidance from the Bank of England and how confidently it evaluates the balance between inflation risks and the risk of a slowdown. Political uncertainty can further amplify caution toward UK assets and periodically raise the risk premium.

On the US side, the dollar remains supported by expectations that the Fed will keep financial conditions restrictive until inflation convincingly returns toward target. A combination of US inflation and consumer-activity data, along with ongoing discussions around tariffs, sustains demand for the dollar when sentiment deteriorates. With the rate-expectations gap still in place, downside pressure on GBP/USD may remain dominant.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3525, SL 1.3555, TP 1.3435

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for February 26, 2026 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 62500, SL 65000, TP 57000.

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Bitcoin refuses to decline further. Instead of continuing its downward movement, we saw a rapid surge upward.

Perhaps this movement is part of a correction, or more precisely, the second wave in an emerging impulse within wave (c) of a complex corrective structure.

If this is indeed the case, then we can expect a sharp decline in the near future, which will be caused by the development of the third impulse wave.

The expected price movement trajectory and the contours of the downward impulse are schematically shown in the chart below.

Therefore, it is worth considering the possibility of opening sell trades when the local minimum is updated.

Investment idea: SELL 62500, SL 65000, TP 57000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Indices at record highs: Will the rally continue or is a pullback ahead?

In recent weeks, stock markets have continued to set new records: #ASX200, #ESTX50, #FTSE100 and #NIKKEI225 are holding at or near historic highs. The rally is supported by several factors at once: strong corporate earnings, positive profit expectations, steady demand for major blue-chip companies, and hopes that financial conditions may gradually become less restrictive. Each market also has its own drivers: Europe is supported by banks and industrial stocks, the UK by commodity and global companies, and Japan by foreign capital inflows and strong technology stories.

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Indices at record highs — Key reasons and growth drivers:

#ASX200: The index has surpassed 9,140. Growth is driven by strong corporate reports and demand for large, “reliable” stocks. Positive sentiment around technology and AI is also providing additional support.
#ESTX50: The index has exceeded 6,150. Support comes from solid news from major companies, as well as demand for banks and industrial stocks, which investors consider relatively resilient.
#FTSE100: The index has risen above 10,780. Gains are fueled by commodity and defensive companies within the index: when raw material prices are high and earnings reports are stable, FTSE tends to move higher. Additionally, the market anticipates more accommodative rate conditions in the UK.
#NIKKEI225: The index has climbed above 59,430. The upward movement is supported by rising corporate profits, foreign buying activity, and strong technology sectors (chips, AI). A weak or stable yen further benefits exporters.

FreshForex analysts note that further movement in #ASX200, #ESTX50, #FTSE100 and #NIKKEI225 will depend on corporate earnings, interest rate expectations, and overall market sentiment. Since the indices are already at elevated levels, any unexpected news on inflation, monetary policy, or geopolitics could quickly increase volatility. Therefore, maintaining proper risk management and closely monitoring key news and macroeconomic data remains essential.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 27, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1810 on Friday as the market weighs the balance between resilient US data and cautious signals on the future interest-rate path. The dollar is supported by recent inflation and consumption figures, as well as expectations that the regulator will base decisions on a series of reports rather than a single release.

On the US side, investors remain focused on price indicators and business activity: stronger inflation raises required yields on dollar assets and restrains demand for riskier instruments. Another source of uncertainty is trade tariffs and their potential impact on import prices and growth, prompting the market to price a wider range of scenarios.

In the euro area, the backdrop for the euro remains more restrained: weaker demand dynamics and gradual cooling in inflation strengthen expectations that financing conditions will stay accommodative. If US statistics continue to confirm economic resilience, the gap in rate expectations will favor the dollar, and the pair may shift into a downside correction.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1805, SL 1.1835, TP 1.1715

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 02, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

02.03 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is trading around 1.3450 and remains vulnerable as markets increasingly price in easier credit conditions in the UK. Signals from the Bank of England and recent labor market data have strengthened expectations that the policy rate could be cut in the coming months, followed by further steps as inflation slows and hiring cools.

On the US side, the dollar is supported both by demand for safety and by expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Today’s US manufacturing indicators, including the ISM index, matter for judging economic resilience and price dynamics. If the data come in strong, the dollar may gain and limit any rebound in the pound.

In the UK, attention is on lending and business activity figures, which help assess how quickly domestic demand is slowing. External factors—higher geopolitical tension and rising oil prices—also encourage investor caution and reduce appetite for risk-sensitive currencies. In such conditions, the pound often reacts more weakly than the dollar, keeping pressure on the pair.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3450, SL 1.3470, TP 1.3390

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 06 March 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 5365.00, SL 5315.00, TP 5515.00

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Gold enters the week near $5,365 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices. In a more uncertain environment, investors tend to favor safe-haven assets, while expectations of lower US rates partially reduce the dollar’s support.

This week the focus shifts to US employment data and Federal Reserve comments: stronger figures could temporarily strengthen the dollar and cap gold’s advance. At the same time, risks of energy supply disruptions and steady demand from large buyers may keep prices elevated.

Trading recommendation: BUY 5365.00, SL 5315.00, TP 5515.00



#SP500: SELL 6835, SL 6905, TP 6625



The US equity market starts the week around 6,835 on #SP500 amid a sharp rise in oil prices and increased geopolitical risks. Expensive energy raises business costs and heightens inflation concerns, so investors reassess the outlook for US interest rates more cautiously.

Key catalysts this week are the US jobs report, demand indicators, and a set of corporate earnings releases. Weaker data could reinforce expectations of a rate cut and support equities. However, if tensions persist and oil stays high, the index remains vulnerable to a pullback.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6835, SL 6905, TP 6625



#BRENT: BUY 78.40, SL 76.40, TP 84.40



Brent begins the week near $78.40 per barrel after a sharp jump driven by the Iran-related conflict and risks to shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. The market is pricing in a risk premium for potential delivery delays and higher transport costs, so price reactions to headlines remain fast.

This week, the key drivers are updates on route availability, supply-and-demand assessments, and US crude inventory data. If shipping disruptions persist, the risk of further spikes will remain. A de-escalation or steps to boost supply could cool prices, but the backdrop still supports oil.

Trading recommendation: BUY 78.40, SL 76.40, TP 84.40

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for March 3, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 5185.90–5303.00, TP1 – 5420.10, TP2 – 5777.20.

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Long-term trend: bullish. The largest volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the 5150.00–5250.00 range. At the moment, investment activity in XAUUSD is taking place above this range, which indicates strong buyers.

Medium-term trend: bullish. The largest volume accumulation for the medium-term trend is located in the 5170.00–5205.00 range. Currently, investment activity in XAUUSD is occurring above this range, which indicates strong buyers.

The most favorable buy area (from a margin requirement standpoint) is between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the 02.03.2026 high.

Upper boundary of the 1/4 zone: 5303.00.

Upper boundary of the 1/2 zone: 5185.90.

Intraday targets: a retest / break of the highs from 02.03.2026 – 5420.10.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 5777.20.



Trading recommendation: buy from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 5185.90–5303.00, Take Profit 1 – 5420.10, Take Profit 2 – 5777.20.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 04, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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On March 4, EUR/USD is holding near 1.1600 after the US dollar strengthened amid escalating conflict in the Middle East and a spike in oil and gas prices. For the euro area, this means more expensive imported energy and higher inflation risks, while for markets it typically means a shift toward more liquid assets—supporting demand for the dollar.

Pressure on the euro is also driven by the latest eurozone inflation data and the ECB’s assessment that a prolonged energy shock can lift inflation while simultaneously worsening the economic outlook. In such an environment, market participants become more cautious about pricing in policy easing in Europe, waiting for confirmation that price pressures will not become persistent.

From the US side, the picture looks steadier: the economy is less dependent on imported energy, and expectations for rapid Fed rate cuts have been partly pushed back due to the risk of inflation re-accelerating. As long as tensions persist, fundamental factors remain in favor of the dollar; support for the euro would most likely come from de-escalation and signs of cooling inflation in the US.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1600, SL 1.1635, TP 1.1495

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for March 5, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 24651.6–24929.1, TP1 25206.6, TP2 25979.3.

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Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The largest concentration of volume in the current contract is located in the 25550.0–25750.0 range. At the moment, investment activity in #NQ100 is taking place below this range, which indicates strong selling pressure.



Mid-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of volume for the mid-term trend is located in the 25070.0–25150.0 range. Currently, investment activity in #NQ100 is occurring below this range, which points to weak buying interest.

The favorable buying zone from a margin perspective lies between the 1/4 and 1/2 areas built from the high of 05.03.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 24929.1.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 24651.6.

Intraday targets: a new high above the 05.03.2026 level at 25206.6.

Mid-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the mid-term control zone (GWCZ) at 25979.3.



Investment recommendation: buy from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern is formed.

Buy: 24651.6–24929.1, Take Profit 1: 25206.6, Take Profit 2: 25979.3.

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