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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 15, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is holding near 1.1735 at the start of the week, but the upward momentum has faded. The market is reassessing the Fed’s path after the recent rate cut and comments from officials suggesting a possible pause to evaluate inflation dynamics.

Uncertainty is being amplified by delays in some US macro releases due to a temporary pause in federal operations: disruptions in labor-market and price statistics increase caution and push traders toward a more restrained view of further easing. In such periods, demand for the dollar often strengthens.

On the euro side, pressure also comes from its own factors: an upcoming ECB decision and updated guidance for the region’s economy, as well as political risks in certain euro-area countries that can weigh on investor sentiment. Overall, this raises the probability of a downward move in the pair.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1760, TP 1.1660

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 19 December 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00

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Gold enters the week of December 15–19, 2025 near record highs, with prices holding around $4,327 per ounce. The main support comes from expectations of lower US rates following the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut, as well as the market’s sensitivity to any signs of slowing growth. Demand is also reinforced by risk-off sentiment linked to geopolitical tensions and news about broader investor access to gold via funds in major markets.

For the week ahead, the key drivers are fresh US macro data and decisions from leading central banks. If US bond yields and the dollar keep easing, interest in gold is likely to remain strong. A restraining scenario would be the opposite: stronger US data that pushes the dollar and yields higher. In the base case, gold looks resilient, but headline-driven volatility may stay elevated.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00


#SP500: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040



US equities start the week with mixed sentiment: after sharp moves in some technology names, investors are becoming more selective, but the broader backdrop remains supportive. S&P 500 futures hover near 6,846, and the focus is on the rate path and the health of the US economy. The recent Fed rate cut helps expectations for lower financing costs and supports risk appetite.

This week’s spotlight is on a heavy central-bank calendar (including Japan, the UK, and the euro area) and key US releases (some statistics are published with delays), which can quickly shift positioning. A constructive scenario for the index is the absence of negative surprises on inflation and jobs alongside expectations of a more accommodative policy stance later on. Risks to the upside include a sudden deterioration in the external backdrop or renewed concerns about stretched valuations in parts of the market.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040


#BRENT: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40



Brent opens the week around $61.44 per barrel. In the near term, prices are supported by supply-disruption risks — notably around Venezuela, sanctions constraints, and isolated attacks on oil infrastructure. Such headlines can trigger quick spikes higher even when demand is not particularly strong.

However, fundamentally, the week’s dominant theme is excess supply and rising inventories. A number of international assessments and US outlooks point to a risk of market surplus in 2026 and downside pressure on prices if current production levels persist. In practice, this means rallies may more often meet selling interest, and the market could react sharply to any signals of weaker demand or higher supply. As a result, the baseline bias for the week is mildly negative, with volatility likely to remain elevated.

Trading recommendation: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for December 16, 2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 85000, SL 87300, TP 79500

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The situation for the analyzed asset continues to develop according to the previously outlined plan. It is worth recalling that a bearish impulse is likely unfolding, in which wave (iii) is presumably an extended one.

Within this extension, wave 4 has completed its development, taking the form of a contracting horizontal triangle, and the price is now moving downward, intending to form the next wave.

Potentially, the decline looks very promising and attractive for selling at current market levels. The expected target for this move lies around 80,000 and below.

Investment idea: SELL 85000, SL 87300, TP 79500.

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Precious metals lead the way: silver, platinum, and palladium surge higher



On December 2, FreshForex analysts had already highlighted the high potential of the metals market — and the market quickly confirmed this scenario with a sharp rise in prices: silver (XAGUSD) +12.89%, platinum (XPTUSD) +9.03%, and palladium (XPDUSD) +8.75%. Our metals forecasts not only played out — this segment confidently outperformed many other asset classes. Investors are moving away from the dollar and government bonds into real assets amid expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Prices are also being fueled by news of supply deficits and rising industrial demand for these metals. Against this backdrop, interest in precious metals is growing among both retail and large institutional investors.

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Growth Drivers:

• Silver (XAGUSD) is rising due to a supply shortage: demand from the solar energy sector and electronics is increasing, while inventories are declining. For investors, silver is also a more affordable alternative to gold.
• Palladium (XPDUSD) is supported by limited supply and geopolitical risks: the market depends heavily on Russia and South Africa, while demand for palladium in automotive catalysts and electronics remains strong. As a result, even rumors of sanctions or export restrictions can sharply push prices higher.
• Platinum (XPTUSD) is gaining value amid mining disruptions in South Africa, which remains a key global supplier. At the same time, demand from industry and hydrogen-related projects keeps the market tight, meaning any news from the mining sector is quickly reflected in prices.

If a dovish Fed policy and a weak dollar persist, interest in precious metals as a “hedge against currency devaluation” is likely to remain high. Silver receives an additional boost from the “green” agenda — the development of solar energy and electric vehicles, where it is used in virtually every component.

Platinum and palladium continue to depend on a limited number of supplier countries, making any disruptions in mining or logistics powerful price triggers. In this environment, even minor news about production cuts or new restrictions can spark another wave of growth. As long as the market sees a supply deficit and no quick way to significantly increase output, the bullish scenario retains strong potential.

FreshForex analysts note that in the coming months, the performance of silver, platinum, and palladium will largely depend on the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory, the pace of the global “green” transition, and mining-related news from key regions — primarily South Africa and Russia. Investors are advised to maintain strict risk management and closely monitor the macroeconomic calendar.

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