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[Volkov Yuriy]

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Topics you’ll cover:

• Fundamental analysis: news, rates, reports, and event-based scenarios
• Technical analysis: trends, support/resistance, candlestick patterns, indicators, and chart formations
• Capital management: risk per trade, position size, leverage, stop loss/take profit
• Trading psychology: how to avoid perfectionism and impulsive decisions

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 26, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index

GBPUSD:

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Sterling is under pressure from a mix of external and domestic factors. Externally, the dollar is firming on the back of fresh US statistics and higher Treasury yields. Domestically, UK fiscal risk is in focus: investors are cautious around gilts and upcoming budget decisions, limiting demand for the pound and increasing the pair’s sensitivity to US releases.

UK business activity data point to a softer impulse in manufacturing and services, while real household incomes remain constrained. The Bank of England is seeking to keep inflation on track toward target and is acting carefully, avoiding signals of rapid easing—keeping borrowing costs relatively high for an economy where growth momentum is fragile. Taken together, this narrows the space for medium-term sterling strength and encourages investors to hedge via the dollar.

Demand for safe and higher-yielding dollar assets persists, while the pound stays vulnerable to surprises in fiscal headlines and long-dated yields. With neutral/strong US data, the pair typically drifts lower; in focus are the resilience of US consumer spending and the direction of inflation, which shape rate expectations for the Fed and, in turn, the dollar’s path.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3350, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3260

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 29, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention today:

17:00 EET. USD – Pending Home Sales Change

USDJPY:

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The key theme for USDJPY today is Tokyo inflation, which the market often treats as an early indicator of Japan’s nationwide CPI. More persistent price growth increases the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will maintain a cautious readiness for gradual normalization, while the authorities keep a close watch on the yen’s exchange rate. Against this backdrop, investors’ propensity to take profit on long USDJPY positions is rising.

At the same time, dollar moves are driven by U.S. headlines: at the start of the week, some participants hedge the risk of data delays amid budget uncertainty, which periodically softens the USD and supports the yen. If Tokyo’s inflation profile surprises to the upside, the theme of a “real” strengthening of the yen via JGB yields and BoJ policy expectations will gain additional traction.

Near the 149.00 area, the short-term risk/reward favors a partial pullback in the pair: a possible pause in the dollar’s rise combined with CPI-sensitive expectations in Japan creates a window for a correction toward 148.00.

Trading recommendation: SELL 149.00, SL 149.20, TP 148.10

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Synthetic Indices #U1K, #D1K, and #V100-1S



Synthetic indices are unique trading instruments that simulate market movements with predefined volatility, completely detached from real-world assets or news. They are generated algorithmically and available 24/7, offering a seamless trading environment with no gaps, no surprises – the perfect setting to test strategies and uncover new opportunities.

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• #U1K – An index with rare, sharp upward spikes occurring on average once every 1000 ticks. Ideal for traders who seek to capitalize on sudden bullish bursts that follow a predictable frequency pattern.

• #D1K – Features rare, rapid downward moves, also about once per 1000 ticks. A great choice for those looking to catch short-term market drops and profit from volatility on the downside.

• #V100-1S – Offers consistent 100% volatility and price movement every second. Quotes refresh instantly, making this the perfect index for scalpers and those who thrive in ultra-active markets.


Why trade #U1K, #D1K, and #V100-1S? These indices combine attractive trading terms with excellent risk management potential:

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for 30 September, 2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 24246.1-24523.6, TP1-24801.1, TP2-25813.6.

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum concentration of current contract volumes is located in the range of 24500.0–24700.0. Currently, investment transactions are being carried out within the specified range for #NQ100, which indicates temporary uncertainty. #NQ100: BUY 24246.1-24523.6, TP1-24801.1, TP2-25813.6.



• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum concentration of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range between 24270.0–24350.0 and 24470.0–24550.0. Currently, investment transactions on #NQ100 are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favorable purchase prices from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 22.09.2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 24523.6.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 24246.1.

• Intraday targets: updating the highs from 22.09.2025–24801.1.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the ZNKZ – 25813.6.#NQ100: BUY 24246.1-24523.6, TP1-24801.1, TP2-25813.6.



• Investment recommendations: buy from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 24246.1-24523.6, Take Profit 1-24801.1, Take Profit 2-25813.6.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

$4,000 per ounce – the golden target is almost here!

Since the start of 2025, gold (XAUUSD) has been on a strong upward trend, gaining around $1,200 per ounce (+45%). By September 30, prices surged to an all-time high of $3,867 per ounce. This momentum is setting ambitious price targets and keeping the metal near historic levels. Amid shifting rate expectations and rising demand for safe-haven assets, platinum (XPTUSD) is also on the rise, holding above key levels and signaling renewed investor interest in precious metals.

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Back in April, FreshForex analysts predicted gold would hit $4,000 per ounce — at the time, the price had just broken above $3,300. Less than six months later, gold has repeatedly set new all-time highs!

4 key drivers of the rally:

• A dovish Fed and weaker USD. The market is pricing in more rate cuts — lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. A softer dollar also makes the metal more attractive to international buyers.
• Demand for safe havens. Rising global uncertainty (including risks of a U.S. government shutdown) is pushing capital into traditional shelters like gold — and records tend to be set during such events.
• Central bank buying. For the third year in a row, official sector demand remains strong — especially from emerging market regulators — cushioning pullbacks and creating a firm price floor.
• ETF inflows. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds are accumulating reserves, boosting investment demand and locking in higher price levels.

As financial conditions ease, uncertainty stays high, and institutional demand holds strong, gold remains a key asset for conservative strategies. While short-term corrections are possible, the upward trend is likely to continue unless core fundamentals reverse. FreshForex analysts believe the $4,000 mark will be crossed soon, and prices could reach $4,200 per ounce by year-end!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 1, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

EURUSD:

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The EUR/USD exchange rate remained virtually unchanged after three days of growth and is trading around 1.1730 in Asian trading on Wednesday.

The eurozone HICP is expected to rise by 2.2% year-on-year in September, following a 2.0% increase in August. Meanwhile, annual core HICP inflation is expected to remain at 2.3% in the same month. Monthly inflation and core inflation in August were 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.

US federal government funding expires at 04:00 GMT on Wednesday, which will lead to a government shutdown. About 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed after Congress failed to pass funding bills.

The latest job vacancy data showed that the labor market is slowing down, but the number of vacancies rose from 7.21 million to 7.23 million in August. At the same time, the hiring rate fell to 3.2%, the lowest since June 2024, while the layoff rate remained low.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1795, SL 1.1715, TP 1.1985

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 2, 2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 114200, SL 114800, TP 111900.

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After a fairly sharp rise, sellers attempted to exert significant pressure on the price. At first, everything went well, and the price began to fall, but at a certain point, active buying resumed, leading to a return of the price to its initial level.

Despite this, the current situation continues to be viewed as a zigzag correction. A slight decline is expected in the near future, followed by growth. In this case, we will see the formation of a simple zigzag. There is also the possibility of more protracted growth, but without updating the historical maximum. In this case, the projected wave [ii] will ‘move’ slightly to the right. However, this scenario also implies a sharp decline in the future.

In this situation, quick sales at current price levels can be considered.

Investment idea: SELL 114200, SL 114800, TP 111900.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 3, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Composite PMI Index

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

16:45 EET. USD - Composite PMI Index

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD trades around 1.1720–1.1730 early Friday. The market is digesting the continuation of the U.S. federal agencies’ shutdown, which delays official macro data releases. Private labor-market gauges for September point to slower hiring, yet overall demand for the dollar remains supported: investors retain interest in the U.S. currency amid uncertainty over the budget and the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate cut. In this mix of factors, the euro is losing upside momentum and short-lived rallies tend to fade.

In the euro area, participants track consumer prices and activity estimates—soft inflation and business readings offer little reason to expect faster GDP growth in the autumn. Against this backdrop, the scope for euro appreciation looks limited: the U.S.–Germany yield gap remains notable, while the ECB’s communication is cautious regarding further policy loosening, with the central bank preferring to wait for a steady cooling in prices without undermining demand.

On the U.S. side, rate expectations are the key lever: futures price in a chance of a cut already in October and a continued path toward looser policy by year-end. However, the lack of official publications during the budget pause shifts attention to alternative indicators and Fed commentary, which together support defensive demand for the dollar and keep EURUSD below recent September highs.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1725, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1660

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 6, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Construction PMI Index

GBPUSD:

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The pound is holding near 1.34–1.35, but the fundamental balance remains fragile. The Bank of England has eased policy in recent months and maintains a cautious stance amid cooling domestic demand and stabilizing inflation. The regulator’s rhetoric and market expectations leave room for an additional rate cut if growth and credit data soften, which caps the pound’s upside potential.

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The UK fiscal agenda adds uncertainty: the need to meet fiscal rules amid moderate growth complicates the government’s task and increases the economy’s sensitivity to further tightening in financial conditions on capital markets. The current-account position and reliance on external financing make the pound’s exchange rate sensitive to swings in the global dollar and the risk premium.

On the U.S. side, a likely Fed rate cut in October could weaken the dollar, but in the short term the U.S. budget story and swings in risk appetite keep demand for dollar liquidity elevated. In this setup we see increased risk of a pullback in the pound toward 1.3350, especially if UK data come in soft.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3450, SL 1.3500, TP 1.3350

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