Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Wed Sep 24, 2025 3:08 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on September 24, 2025

USD/JPY After the price bounced from the resistance of the daily MACD line on Monday, it ended up below the balance indicator line.

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At the same time, the Marlin oscillator began to turn upward as it approached the boundary with the declining trend zone. If the price breaks above yesterday's high, it will automatically move above the balance line. The target will then open at the MACD line at 148.68. Breaking this resistance will open the next target at 149.38.

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On the four-hour chart, the situation has not even shifted to a bearish one — the price remained above the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator did not settle in the bearish zone. If the price does not consolidate below the MACD line, under the 147.43 level, the current upward reversal will continue to develop. We are waiting for yesterday's high of 147.93 to be broken.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Thu Sep 25, 2025 2:19 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview. September 25. Trump the Victor and Peacemaker

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On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair once again traded lower—a move we see as completely illogical. However, it's important to remember that the market isn't always trending. Flat (sideways) trading makes up to 80% of the time. Let's jump to the daily timeframe. What do we see? Since early May, the pound has traded between 1.3150 and 1.3780. Yes, it's a fairly wide channel, but we're talking about a long-term timeframe. An upward move could resume or extend even from current positions, and in that case, we'll talk about a trend again. Still, the price can continue to move within this range for quite some time, which is neither surprising nor unusual. We also want to emphasize that movements within a flat do not require any fundamental or macroeconomic justification.

A flat is the result of accumulation or distribution by major players. Surely no one believes that big players only trade when there are major news events, speeches, or reports. This means the current decline in the pair is an illogical move because any event of similar significance didn't precede it. But within a sideways market, such moves are common. We continue to see no prospects for the US currency. Donald Trump remains the main problem for the dollar. Maybe under his administration the stock market or gold is soaring, but in the FX market, the reaction to the Republican's actions is clear and repetitive.

Just recall: Trump wants total control and submission from almost every country in the world. So far, he's failed on many fronts. Take the Federal Reserve, for instance. What has Trump achieved? Nothing. True, he replaced Adriana Kugler with Stephen Miran. Yes, next year Jerome Powell will be replaced by someone who will vote for a "rate cut" at every meeting. But what has Trump actually achieved so far? The war in Ukraine has also not ended—despite Trump's efforts.

For a long time, the US president tried to portray himself as Russia's best friend, but as we see, the Kremlin "didn't buy" the act. Time after time, Trump gives Moscow two weeks to "think about its behavior," but the fact remains: the conflict goes on. Meanwhile, Trump continues to present himself as the chief peacemaker, even angling for a Nobel Peace Prize. But honestly, what war has Trump actually stopped? The war between Pakistan and India? How long did that last—two hours?

The war between Israel and Iran? Conflict in the Middle East has dragged on for decades. Trump simply paused one big, ongoing conflict, using his influence in Jerusalem. Generally, there are more words than actions from the US president. In fact, Trump doesn't seem to overwork himself—by some journalistic calculations, he's spent about a third of his presidential term on golf courses, erecting statues to himself in the process. In short, it remains hard for us to expect any growth from the dollar.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Fri Sep 26, 2025 2:49 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. September 26. The Dollar Continues to Stumble After Powell's Speech

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The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, but had managed to consolidate below the moving average line the day before. In fact, everyone is now used to the constant back-and-forth around the moving average. Over the past month and a half, the pair's movement has been such that a 100-pip rise is followed by an 80-pip fall. In other words, the European currency rises steadily, but very weakly, with frequent corrections and pullbacks. Unfortunately, with such price action, moving averages are almost useless. Moreover, this kind of price movement displays signs of both a trend and a flat, which is important to understand. It's not exactly sideways movement, but corrections account for up to 90% of trend movements.

However, all questions disappear when you switch to the daily time frame. Whatever the movement looks like on the 4-hour chart, on the daily timeframe, it is clear that the European currency has been rising almost non-stop for the ninth consecutive month. Yes, the current upward movement is not as strong as it was during the first six months of the year, but it remains an uptrend, with minimal corrections on the daily chart. On a global scale, the euro remains near its 3-year highs. This week, the market has already faced disappointment a couple of times. One example was Jerome Powell's speech. Honestly, we still don't understand who and why, except for the Fed, to make the most "dovish" moves, when Fed officials have been repeating this mantra for a year and a half now that rates will only change based on macroeconomic data. No one in the FOMC was eager to cut rates at the start of the year or in 2024. No one in the Committee was in a hurry to ease monetary policy.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Mon Sep 29, 2025 4:28 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. September 29. European Inflation, Lagarde, and the Euro's Recovery

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During the upcoming week, the EUR/USD pair is expected to attempt to resume its upward trend. This conclusion is based on the current market situation, expectations of major banks, and the forthcoming fundamental and macroeconomic context. Let's break it down. The decline of the European currency over the past two weeks does not cancel the upward trend on either the 4-hour or daily timeframes. On the daily chart, the picture is clear: the dollar is only capable of occasional small corrections. Indeed, over the past week and a half, fundamentals and macro data have supported the U.S. currency, but how many such episodes can you recall in 2025? They are as rare as snow in May. Despite the dollar strengthening toward 1.17, virtually no major bank is betting on further dollar appreciation. There are simply no grounds for such expectations, a point we have repeated for months. Of course, market makers can still buy the U.S. currency, potentially causing further strengthening. However, since we cannot know their plans, our analysis is based strictly on fundamentals and macroeconomics. The euro's fundamental backdrop remains unchanged. There is no chance that the European Central Bank will cut rates again in the near term. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand—despite Jerome Powell's contradictory rhetoric—appears ready for two more rate cuts in 2025. In addition, Donald Trump recently resurfaced with fresh tariffs last week. There are no signs of an end to the global trade war, which has been one of the main drivers behind the dollar's decline in 2025.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Tue Sep 30, 2025 4:29 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for September 30, 2025

EUR/USD Yesterday's bullish impulse in the single currency proved to be weak. The price tried to move further away from the MACD line after breaking above it, but by the end of the day, the upper shadow was larger than the candle body. The Marlin oscillator stalled at the neutral zero line, and this morning even hinted at a reversal downward.

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The price is likely to remain in a sideways trend until the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. Even a consolidation below the MACD line (1.1708) would not be a signal for a decline toward the target of 1.1605; the market is simply waiting for Friday's data. A similar situation occurred a month ago, when the euro began to move only after the release of employment figures (green arrow). This time, however, the movement may be downward with a target of 1.1495.

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On the four-hour chart, the price has stalled at the balance line. The Marlin oscillator remains in positive territory but is moving horizontally close to the line. A consolidation above the MACD line (1.1774) would signal a further rise to 1.1914, but the probability of this scenario has decreased, raising the possibility of a false breakout. We are waiting for the news on Friday.


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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Tue Sep 30, 2025 11:37 pm

Forex Analysis & Reviews: October 1 – The Great Day of the Great Shutdown

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As soon as Wednesday, October 1, the U.S. government and all federal institutions may go on leave. No, this isn't the start of vacation season. This is Donald Trump, once again, failing to reach an agreement with the Democrats — and lacking the political leverage to bypass the opposition. This time, U.S. legislation stands in Trump's way: the law requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass the budget for the next fiscal year. Whether Trump forgot about this or anticipated it and prepared accordingly is unclear. Most likely, it's the latter. Either way, whether he forgot or not doesn't really matter. What matters is the shutdown, which could become the first in the past six years. Shutdowns in the U.S. are hardly unusual — there have been around 20 over the last 50 years. Every few years, Democrats and Republicans fail to find common ground. But this particular case is unique. I believe Trump is in a hurry. Why and where he's rushing to are questions worth considering thoroughly. In fact, I'd go a step further and ask: why does Trump so desperately want a Nobel Peace Prize — something he himself makes no secret of? Why does he want to present himself as the world's chief peacemaker, and why has he started a "global restructuring" of the international order? In my view, Trump wants to leave a legacy. The man in the White House realizes that this term may be his last. By the time he is expected to leave office, Trump will be 82 years old. Of course, with good health, you can run a country up to age 100, but Trump is a realist — even if it's not always obvious from his actions. He's criticized Biden for being too old, but in three years, Trump himself will be the same age Biden was when Trump made those comments.

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I believe Trump is racing against time because he realizes his own is running out. He's declared himself the greatest president in U.S. history and wants to stand alongside Abraham Lincoln and George Washington. That's why he's pushing for record-breaking growth in the U.S. economy at any cost. That's why he wants to end as many wars as possible. That's why he wants the Nobel Peace Prize, his own Taj Mahal, his own Pyramid of Khufu in the White House backyard, and self-funded statues in his golf clubs. If this isn't preparation for retirement with a sense of accomplishment, I don't know what is. Wave Pattern on EUR/USD: Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the internal and external politics of the new White House administration. The current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.25 area. At the moment, a corrective wave four is unfolding, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm only considering buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci.
Wave Pattern on GBP/USD: The wave pattern on GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize, but even in that case, wave four would be far more complex and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this mark may indicate the market's readiness for new buying momentum.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Thu Oct 02, 2025 4:18 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview – October 2. Shutdown May Be Prolonged, but the Dollar Is Still Holding On...

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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, which began a few days earlier. While the euro came under pressure following the release of eurozone inflation data, the British pound had no such releases and continued to climb without interruption. Overall, the pound is rising, while the dollar continues to fall — a trend that is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. The pair has essentially been in a state of consolidation for over two months, but during that time, the pound never lost more than 400 points.

In fact, the downward correction could be considered completed as early as August 1. So while the pound may not be growing as firmly as in the first half of the year, it's certainly holding its ground. (Of course, this is said half-jokingly — the pound sterling hasn't really done anything to deserve a 15-cent rally in 2025. It was the dollar that collapsed by 15 cents.) If not for the fundamentally disastrous backdrop in the U.S., we would never have seen such a sharp upward move in the pound, a currency that, along with the euro, has only been falling for the past 17 years. It's evident that the British economy is not fundamentally strong enough to justify the high demand for the pound. The UK's economic situation has remained poor since 2016. The current U.S. government shutdown resembles an episode from a new "mini-series from HBO."

It's unlikely that the shutdown will last for months, but this particular stoppage of government operations carries special weight. It doesn't even matter which exact policy issues are to blame for the deadlock between Democrats and Trump. What matters is that for the first time during Trump's second term, Democrats finally have a chance to push back. Let's remember: Trump has passed most major decisions unilaterally, and the entire Republican party has been operating in lockstep under his direction. Because Republicans hold the majority in both chambers of Congress, they haven't needed Democratic approval for most legislation. Currently, however, the Senate must pass a budget for the upcoming fiscal year — and it requires more than a simple 50%+1 majority. For a budget, 60 votes are needed. But there are only 53 Republicans in the Senate, which normally suffices for most legislation, but not for the budget. This gives Democrats a rare opportunity to play a decisive role in 2025 policymaking.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Fri Oct 03, 2025 4:00 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on October 3. The Euro Could Not Withstand Unemployment Pressure

EUR/USD Analysis, 5M

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly declined. Over the past couple of weeks, the dollar has accumulated several new factors that weaken its position against its competitors. Yet instead of a natural rise in the pair, we see either flat movement or even declines. From our perspective, the dollar should already be plunging into another downturn, so these "twitches" can hardly be called movement—nor are they particularly logical. The formal reason for the euro's decline on Thursday was the unemployment report in the euro area, which showed that the rate unexpectedly rose to 6.3%. This could have triggered pressure on the euro. However, the drop started about two hours after the report, so it is uncertain whether that was the real driver. Still, there were no other factors behind the euro's fall. Overall, this week began with a U.S. government shutdown, while the ADP report showed further job losses in the private sector. On the 5-minute timeframe, two sell signals were generated. Throughout the European session, the price attempted to bounce off the 1.1750–1.1760 area and eventually succeeded. Later, the Kijun-sen line was broken, but the pair failed to reach the nearest target. Traders could have opened shorts but had to close them around the critical line or set Stop Loss to breakeven and hold the trade until the end. COT Report

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The latest COT report is dated September 23. As seen above, the net position of non-commercial traders had long been "bullish." Bears briefly gained the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump began his second term as president, the dollar has been in steady decline. While we cannot claim with 100% certainty that this trend will continue, current global developments strongly suggest that it will. There are still no fundamental factors supporting the dollar's strength, while many remain that support its decline. The global downtrend remains intact, and concerns about the Fed's potential loss of independence add further pressure on the U.S. currency. During the last reporting week, longs among the "Non-commercial" group fell by 800 contracts, while shorts rose by 2,600. As a result, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts. EUR/USD Analysis, 1H

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On the hourly chart, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend, although it cannot yet be considered complete, as the price is moving sideways and has not broken the 1.1750–1.1760 area or the Senkou Span B line. However, we still see no grounds for sustained dollar growth. The daily chart clearly shows that the overall uptrend remains intact. Key trading levels for October 3 are: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, along with Senkou Span B (1.1782) and Kijun-sen (1.1722). Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day and should be monitored. Always set the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This reduces the risk of loss if a signal proves false. On Friday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver another speech, but no major policy shifts are expected. In the U.S., key reports are scheduled for release: Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and the ISM Manufacturing Index. However, the first two may not be published due to the shutdown. Trading Recommendations On Friday, the euro's recovery may continue. Traders need to overcome the 1.1750–1.1760 area and the Senkou Span B line for the downtrend to be considered broken. A rebound from this zone supported short entries with targets at 1.1666, but we still do not believe in a sustainable dollar rally—unless U.S. data surprises strongly to the upside.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Mon Oct 06, 2025 3:19 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 6, 2025

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EUR/USD The sideways movement of the past week resulted in a downside gap today. However, this was largely influenced by a more significant 200-point gap in the USD/JPY pair, caused by Sanae Takaichi's election as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend. A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is now expected to become Japan's next prime minister. This development indirectly impacted EUR/USD, but the euro may still strengthen over the course of the new week.

The upper boundary of the current range is marked by the October 1 high at 1.1779. A consolidation above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1910. However, this target may not be achieved if U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline. The MACD support line lies at 1.1697. A firm move below it would expose the target at 1.1605. The Marlin oscillator continues to drift horizontally along the zero (neutral) line.

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On the four-hour chart, the initial resistance is the MACD line at 1.1750. After closing the gap, the price may pause slightly at this resistance level. The Marlin oscillator is re-entering positive territory, confirming that its brief dip into the negative zone was likely false. This supports the outlook for a short-term (several days) upward movement in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Tue Oct 07, 2025 3:06 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – October 7. The Paradoxical Dollar Doesn't Stop at What Has Been Achieved

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The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower throughout Monday, which is, at the very least, surprising. Let's remember that in 2025, the United States faces a multitude of challenges. Each passing week brings new developments that practically scream at the market to continue dumping the U.S. dollar. Of course, the dollar is not the currency of a developing country. It cannot and will not fall endlessly. However, one must agree that the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains such that betting on dollar growth is simply unreasonable. Just last week, it became clear that nearly all published U.S. data surprised traders in a negative way. The key disappointment came in the ADP report, as NonFarm Payrolls were unavailable. The main takeaway for traders was that the U.S. labor market continues to slow. Admittedly, most market participants may have chosen to wait for the official NFP report, given that ADP is considered secondary. However, this doesn't justify the dollar's failure to drop last week. The ISM business activity indices also fell short of expectations. Although a slight increase was seen in the manufacturing sector, the index remains below the 50.0 "watershed" level. As for the services sector, it plunged by 2 points and is now teetering on the edge of contraction. As a reminder, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is currently not collecting or releasing data. Therefore, there will be no U.S. inflation report this week. On what basis will the Federal Reserve make its monetary policy decision at the end of the month? That remains entirely unclear. Given the current circumstances, the outcome of the decision is a mystery shrouded in darkness.

The level of uncertainty is now growing not just due to Donald Trump's leadership, his trade wars, the White House's protectionist policies, and his continued attacks on the Fed (the list is endless), but also due to the absence of critical macroeconomic data. We believe that this uncertainty is precisely why the market is hesitant to act—participants don't know what to expect. And ironically, this very uncertainty should be the primary reason for selling off the U.S. dollar. What investor would want to invest in an economy where the current inflation level is unknown? Where the president provokes a second government shutdown, makes unilateral decisions, and is willing to fire half of the federal administration to pressure the opposition? In our view, this type of uncertainty should drive the dollar down into the abyss. Incidentally, a weaker dollar works in Trump's favor. On the other side, a strong euro is unfavorable for the ECB and the EU as a whole. It's entirely plausible that some form of currency intervention has begun on the part of the ECB to prevent further euro appreciation. Of course, currency interventions are informally prohibited, but the ECB is under no obligation to disclose its actions to Trump or anyone else. In short, something is clearly off in the currency market.

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