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Market Fundamental Analysis for September 8, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

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The GBP/USD pair is starting the new week on a softer note, dropping below the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session. However, the decline does not look convincing, which calls for caution from bearish traders and positioning for a continuation of Friday's pullback from the 1.3555 area, or a nearly three-week high.

The US Dollar (USD) is gaining positive momentum and pulling away from its low since July 28, reached on Friday in response to disappointing US employment data, which in turn is putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The rise in the USD can be attributed to the fall of the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid domestic political turmoil and risks fizzling out rather quickly amid growing bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut.

The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below consensus forecasts. In addition, revisions to previous data showed that the economy lost 13,000 jobs in June, the first monthly decline since December 2020, indicating a weakening U.S. labor market. This has fueled speculation of a more aggressive Fed interest rate cut and should limit the USD's rise.

The British Pound (GBP), however, may struggle to attract significant buyers amid financial uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget in November.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3495, SL 1.3475, TP 1.3595

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 9, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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The dollar/yen remains below recent highs amid falling US yields and growing expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut. The yen is supported by ongoing expectations of a gradual normalization of the Bank of Japan's policy amid sustained signs of wage and economic activity rebalancing. The market is also factoring in the possibility of verbal intervention by the Japanese authorities if the yen weakens further, which limits the upside for USDJPY.

Additional background — political reshuffles and trade news in the region could temporarily increase volatility, but the key driver remains the US-Japan yield spread. In a scenario of moderately soft US inflation data and the BoJ's continued inclination towards further normalization steps, the balance of risks is skewed towards a decline in the pair.

Risks for short positions: a hawkish reaction from the Fed, a jump in UST yields, and unexpectedly dovish comments from the BoJ. Nevertheless, the baseline scenario is a gradual pullback in USDJPY amid a weakening dollar and stabilizing rate expectations in Japan.

Trading recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 147.60, TP 146.30

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Gold Hits Record Highs: $3,600 per Ounce and Still Climbing!


On September 5, 2025, gold reached new record highs — $3,599.77 per ounce — thanks to unexpectedly weak U.S. labor market data. This data reinforced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut, which traditionally supports gold prices by reducing the yield of alternative assets.

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5 Reasons Why Gold Is the Main Asset of 2025:

1.Expectation and implementation of Fed rate cuts: Weak U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations of a monetary policy easing, favorable for gold as it lowers alternative asset yields.
2.U.S. dollar weakening: As the dollar depreciates, gold priced in USD becomes more affordable for holders of other currencies, boosting demand and prices.
3.Rising geopolitical and economic instability: Growing global uncertainty drives investors into safe-haven assets, with gold remaining the traditional hedge against risks.
4.Central banks’ active gold purchases: Central banks are diversifying reserves, reducing dollar holdings, and allocating more into gold — creating a steady base demand.
5.Increased demand from ETFs and institutional investors: Rising inflows into gold ETFs indicate growing investor confidence in gold, further strengthening price dynamics.

The main drivers of gold’s growth remain Fed rate cut expectations, dollar weakness, and active central bank gold purchases. The breakout above $3,600 per ounce has cemented gold’s status as the key safe-haven asset of 2025. According to FreshForex, the current trend creates favorable conditions for opening long positions in XAUUSD while maintaining strict risk management.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 10, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

17:30 EET. USD - Crude Oil Inventories

EURUSD:

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In March 2025, the US non-farm payrolls figure is likely to be revised downward by 911,000, or approximately 76,000 jobs per month, indicating a weaker labor market than previously thought.

Traders are awaiting US inflation reports, which may provide more clues about the Fed's policy outlook. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.

The French parliament voted no confidence in Prime Minister François Bayrou after parties failed to agree on budget cuts, forcing President Emmanuel Macron to appoint the country's fifth prime minister in less than two years.

Traders are also monitoring the geopolitical situation after Poland put its air defense systems on high alert in response to a warning from the Ukrainian Air Force. Ukraine warned of a possible incursion by a Russian drone into Polish airspace, which would be a violation of the airspace of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1730, SL 1.1695, TP 1.1790

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 11, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

15:30 EET. USD - Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits

GBPUSD:

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Sterling is holding high around 1.35 largely because the dollar is softer, not because the UK economy is strong. Growth in the UK is uneven: the economy is cooling, inflation is still above target, and the Bank of England isn’t rushing to tighten — there isn’t much room to maneuver. At these levels, the pound looks vulnerable to a normal “healthy” correction, especially if US data comes in strong.

Fiscal headlines don’t help either: borrowing remains sizable, and the market reacts nervously to any deterioration in overall sentiment. If US yields move higher or strong inflation and jobs reports appear, demand for the dollar will likely return quickly — and the pound will probably retreat from the highs.

Bottom line: the pair has a good chance to pull back to more “down-to-earth” levels. A tactical sell near resistance with a tight stop looks reasonable, and the 1.3450 target fits the current news flow and central bank expectations.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3530, SL 1.3545, TP 1.3450

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 12, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

USDJPY:

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The pair is trading in the 147–148 range, but fundamental factors are tipping the balance of risks in favor of a stronger yen. Expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut are weakening support for the dollar through the yield channel. In addition, the US and Japan have confirmed their commitment to “market-determined” exchange rates and the unacceptability of “excessive volatility,” which de facto leaves Tokyo room for maneuver in the event of sharp movements and limits the enthusiasm of USD buyers on the upswing.

Domestically, Japan is seeing increasing signs of stable inflation: accelerating wholesale prices and widespread wage growth are increasing the likelihood of cautious tightening by the Bank of Japan at the end of the year. At the same time, the BoJ itself is expected to maintain a pause for now, leaving the market with a “hawkish” option tail. Against this backdrop, the short-term bias is towards a gradual decline in USDJPY.

Base scenario for today: sales from rounded levels with clear risks — SELL 147.50, SL 148.10 (above the zone of potential “spikes” on the news), TP 146.50 — while maintaining soft expectations for the Fed and signals of readiness from the Japanese authorities to smooth out excessive movements.

Trading recommendation: SELL 147.50, SL 148.10, TP 146.50

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