HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 8th August 2025.

Global Markets Struggle for Direction Amid Tariffs, Fed Expectations, and Weak Jobs Data.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Wall Street Ends Mixed as Economic Signals Remain Conflicted

Global markets endured another hesitant session on Thursday, with investors balancing disappointing U.S. labour data, central bank actions, and renewed trade tensions. Last week’s weak jobs report and an increase in unemployment claims reinforced expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance in the months ahead.

Bond market sentiment turned bearish after a poor 30-year Treasury auction capped a weak August refunding, while a hawkish interest rate cut from the Bank of England earlier in the day also weighed on confidence. An unexpected rise in U.S. productivity provided only a modest lift. Meanwhile, reciprocal tariffs went into effect at various levels, keeping trade policy firmly in focus.

Apple’s announcement of a significant U.S. manufacturing investment helped Wall Street open with moderate gains, but momentum faded as dip-buying interest cooled. By the close, the NASDAQ finished 0.35% higher—well off session peaks—while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.08%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) eased 1.25% to 16.56, and Treasuries ended mixed.

Asian Markets Mixed; Nikkei Nears Record High

In Asia, Friday’s trading was mixed. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.2% to 41,977.65, approaching record highs, after Japan confirmed it had resolved a dispute with Washington over tariffs on Japanese goods. The duties, implemented Thursday, initially exceeded the agreed 15% level, but Japan’s chief trade envoy confirmed the U.S. had agreed to make the necessary adjustment. Automakers were among the top performers, with Toyota Motor Corp. rising 3.9% and Honda Motor Co. gaining 4%.

Elsewhere, sentiment was softer. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.7% to 24,916.15, the Shanghai Composite Index edged up less than 0.1% to 3,642.10, South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.7% to 3,206.86, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2% to 8,813.70. Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.2%, while India’s Sensex fell 0.5%. Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management described market momentum as unpredictable, warning that early-week trends can reverse sharply by Friday.

Tech Sector Gains Offset by Intel Troubles

Technology stocks provided the strongest lift in the U.S. session. Apple rose 3.2% after CEO Tim Cook joined President Donald Trump at the White House to announce an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years. Semiconductor stocks also advanced after Trump imposed 100% tariffs on imported chips but promised exemptions for companies with substantial U.S. operations. Advanced Micro Devices surged 5.7%, while Nvidia added 0.8%.

Intel, however, fell 3.1% after Trump demanded the immediate resignation of CEO Lip-Bu Tan, accusing him of being “highly conflicted” due to his ties with Chinese firms. Tan responded by confirming that Intel is in active talks with the U.S. administration to address concerns and ensure accurate information is provided, while reaffirming the company’s focus on turning around its struggling operations.



Oil Prices Head for Steepest Weekly Losses Since June

Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Friday but were poised for their sharpest weekly declines since late June. Brent crude futures dipped three cents to $66.40 a barrel at 0050 GMT, on track to fall more than 4% for the week, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped six cents to $63.82, set for a weekly loss of over 5%.

ANZ Bank analysts warned that the latest U.S. tariffs, which came into force Thursday, have raised fears of slower global economic growth and reduced oil demand. Prices were already under pressure after OPEC+ announced last weekend that it would fully unwind its largest tranche of output cuts in September, months ahead of schedule. WTI futures have now fallen for six consecutive sessions, matching a losing streak last seen in December 2023. A decline on Friday would mark the longest streak since August 2021.

Geopolitical Developments Add to Market Uncertainty

The Kremlin confirmed on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming days, fueling speculation of a potential diplomatic breakthrough in the war in Ukraine. The U.S. also imposed new tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian crude oil, though analysts at StoneX noted the measures are unlikely to significantly disrupt Russian oil flows to global markets. Trump also indicated that China, the largest buyer of Russian crude, could face similar tariffs.

Currency Market Moves

In currency trading, the U.S. dollar edged up to 147.16 yen from 147.13, while the euro eased to $1.1660 from $1.1667. With trade disputes intensifying, central banks adjusting policy, and commodity markets under pressure, volatility remains a defining feature of the current global market landscape.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 11th August 2025.

USDJPY Analysis: Yen Weakens Amid US Tariff Pressure and BOJ Policy Signals.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The USDJPY currency pair has been in the spotlight after the Japanese Yen weakened against the US Dollar. This movement was triggered by several key factors that are currently attracting market attention. On Friday, USDJPY strengthened by +0.39%, indicating selling pressure on the Yen. The main concerns driving this weakening are the potential impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy, as well as less than satisfactory domestic economic data.

Factors Driving Yen Weakening

Weaker Japanese Economic Data - Japanese household spending data for June, which only rose +1.3% (y/y), far below market expectations of +2.7%, sent a dovish signal. This figure suggests that Japanese consumers are holding back, likely due to US tariff pressure and rising inflation. This situation reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates soon.

Rising US Bond Yields - Higher US government bond yields on Friday made the US dollar more attractive to investors. This increase negatively impacted the yen, known as a safe-haven currency.

Hawkish Sentiment from BOJ Meeting: Hope Amid Challenges

Nevertheless, there are several signals that could potentially be positive catalysts for the yen in the long term.

Slightly Hawkish BOJ Meeting Minutes - The minutes of the July 30-31 BOJ meeting showed differences of opinion among board members. Some suggested gradual interest rate hikes to anticipate future inflationary pressures. One member even hinted at the possibility of a rate hike as early as late 2025, depending on the impact of US tariffs.

Positive Signals from Economic Surveys - The EcoWatchers Japan Outlook Survey rose to 47.3 in July, reaching a six-month high. This reading was stronger than expected, indicating optimism among economic observers. This positive signal could be a bullish boost for the Yen.

USDJPY Technical Analysis: Towards Key Levels

Technically, the USDJPY is in a corrective phase. The significant rise from the 2021 low (102.58) towards the 2024 high (161.94) is seen as the main trend.


USDJPY

Oil Prices Head for Steepest Weekly Losses Since June

Key Upside Level: If USDJPY manages to break through minor resistance at 148.07, the market will likely retest the high of 150.91, or the 61.8%FR level. A rise above this level would open the opportunity for a continuation of the bullish trend to higher levels.

Key Downside Level: On the other hand, key support is at 145.84. A breach of this level could signal a short-term bearish reversal, with the next support target at 142.66.

For next week, the Yen's movement will likely be influenced by external data given the relatively quiet Japanese economic calendar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 13th August 2025.

Investors Flock to Riskier Assets After Soft US Inflation Data.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky

US Dollar Retreats as Markets Price in Fed Rate Cuts

Global investors have moved into higher-risk assets after US inflation data came in softer than expected, easing stagflation fears and pushing the US dollar (USDindex) lower. The USDIndex dropped reflecting expectations of a near-certain 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September. Some traders are even speculating on a larger reduction as markets reassess monetary policy.



The USDIndex has fallen 0.4% so far today to 97.72, marking its second consecutive day of declines after headline CPI data eased concerns about persistent inflation. Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next month, with some traders even speculating on a larger, 50-basis-point move. The drop in yields and dovish shift in rate expectations have weighed on the greenback, prompting broad gains in other major currencies: EURUSD has risen to 1.1700, GBPUSD is trading at 1.3570, and USDJPY has eased to 147.41. Oil prices corrected as markets focus on the supply outlook, and the front end WTI contract is down -0.8% at USD 62.66 per barrel. Gold benefited from the decline in rates and is trading at $3362.70 per ounce - a gain of 0.4%.

The dollar’s retreat was further reinforced by Tuesday’s broad market optimism. Lower inflation reduced stagflation fears, supporting a shift into riskier assets — from equities to cryptocurrencies — while haven flows into the dollar and gold moderated.

US equity markets are riding a wave of optimism. The S&P 500 has hit fresh record highs, buoyed by resilient corporate earnings and the prospect of looser monetary policy. The index is up almost 30% since April’s trade shock sell-off and 12% since Trump’s election in November. Small-cap stocks, measured by the Russell 2000, are on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains, showing a broad-based recovery beyond large-cap tech.

Tech stocks are leading the charge. The “Magnificent Seven,” including Nvidia and Microsoft, have climbed nearly 50% since April, reversing earlier losses and benefiting from renewed interest in artificial intelligence. Megacap tech alone contributed roughly 90% of S&P 500 profit growth in Q2, according to Deutsche Bank strategists.



Volatility indicators underscore market confidence. The VIX is at its lowest since December, while bond market volatility, measured by the MOVE Index, is at levels not seen since 2022. FX implied volatility is also at a one-year low, highlighting strong investor appetite for risk.

Commodities and Cryptocurrencies Gain Support

The risk-on sentiment has extended to commodities and alternative assets. Gold gained 0.6% to $1,366 per ounce, supported by weaker US dollar and declining bond yields. Silver rose 1.8%, and oil prices corrected slightly after the US API reported higher crude inventories, signaling that the summer demand peak may be fading. Cryptocurrencies have also rebounded, with Ether up 55% over the past month and meme stocks regaining popularity.

Fed Policy and Market Outlook

While markets lean heavily toward near-term easing, the Federal Reserve remains divided. Fed Schmid, a voting member, described policy as “appropriately calibrated” but remains vigilant for signs of weakening demand. Futures markets are pricing in additional rate cuts, while traders await the Jackson Hole symposium for further guidance on monetary policy. Still, futures markets are discounting -23 bps for September, -60 bps by December, and -127 bps in cuts by end-2026.

Political pressure is also intensifying. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to push for immediate rate cuts and criticized Fed Chair Powell, adding a political dimension to market uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that the Fed should remain open to a larger cut next month.

Conclusion

The combination of softer US inflation data, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and resilient earnings has fueled a wave of optimism in global markets. Traders are rotating into equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, while the US dollar remains under pressure. While risks from geopolitical tensions and rising yields persist, investor confidence remains high, setting the tone for continued market rallies in the near term. For now the confidence that soft inflation and resilient growth will keep risk appetite alive, at least until the September decision forces the next big rethink.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 14th August 2025.

Investors Flock to Riskier Assets After Soft US Inflation Data.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday, taking a pause after several sessions of strong gains driven by expectations of lower US interest rates. US stock futures also edged slightly lower, while Bitcoin surged over 3% to a new all-time high above $123,000, according to CoinDesk.

Asian Markets Pause After Rally

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.4% to 42,657.94, as investors took profits following its record-breaking run. The yen strengthened after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg that Japan was “behind the curve” in raising interest rates, prompting speculation the Bank of Japan may be forced to act sooner. The dollar slipped to 146.55 yen from 147.39 yen, while the euro eased marginally to $1.1703.

Across the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipped less than 0.1% to 25,597.85, while China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% to 3,690.88. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.3%, Taiwan’s TAIEX dropped 0.4%, and India’s Sensex inched up 0.1%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5% to 8,871.80. Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management summed it up with a colorful metaphor: “Asian markets opened today like a party that ran out of champagne before midnight, the music still playing, but the dance floor thinning out.”

Dollar Weakens on Rate Cut Bets

The US dollar lingered at multi-week lows against major peers as traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates next month. The greenback fell the most against the yen after Bessent suggested the Bank of Japan may need to raise rates again soon, while the Fed should move aggressively in the opposite direction.

The dollar dropped as much as 0.7% to 146.35 yen, its weakest since July 24. Sterling reached its highest level since late July at $1.3590, while the euro traded at $1.1703, just below Wednesday’s peak. Traders now see a Fed rate cut on September 17 as a near certainty, with some even pricing in a 50-basis-point move.

Analysts say the shift in sentiment comes as signs of a cooling US labor market meet political pressure for policy easing. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates sooner, while Bessent openly called for “a series of rate cuts” beginning with a half-point move.



Australia’s Labour Market Surprises.

Australia’s job market strengthened in July, with employment rising by 24,500 in line with forecasts, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% from a 3½-year high of 4.3%. Full-time positions surged by 60,500, driven largely by record female participation.

The stronger data lifted the Australian dollar to as high as $0.65685 before trimming gains. With wage growth steady at 3.4%, well below 2023 peaks, inflationary pressure from pay remains limited. This reduces the urgency for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates again in September, although markets still expect a 25 bps reduction in November if inflation cools further.

Wall Street Extends Record Run

US equities continued their rally on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of a September rate cut. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to a record 6,466.58, the Dow Jones jumped 1% to 44,922.27, and the Nasdaq added 0.1% to an all-time high of 21,713.14. Falling Treasury yields supported rate-sensitive sectors, with homebuilders PulteGroup and Lennar each gaining more than 5%.

In a major market debut, cryptocurrency exchange Bullish surged 84% on its first trading day after a $10 billion IPO, closing at $68 a share. Still, some analysts warn that valuations may be overstretched after the steep gains since April, with tariff-driven inflation risks lingering in the background.

Bitcoin Leads Risk-On Sentiment

Bitcoin climbed to $124,480.82 in the latest session before settling near $123,000, marking its first record high since mid-July. The rally has been fueled by expectations of Fed easing, a weaker dollar, increased institutional inflows, and a friendlier regulatory climate under Trump, who recently signed an executive order allowing crypto assets in 401(k) retirement accounts.

Ether also gained, trading near its highest since November 2021. Year-to-date, ether is up 42%, outpacing bitcoin’s 32% advance. Analysts say a sustained break above $125,000 could open the door for a move toward $150,000.



Looking Ahead

Markets are awaiting US wholesale inflation figures for July, expected to rise slightly to 2.4% from 2.3% in June. In Europe, traders will monitor the eurozone’s flash Q2 GDP and the UK’s preliminary Q2 GDP. Attention will also turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at a central bank symposium in Wyoming, where investors will be looking for clues on the September policy decision.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 15th August 2025.

Producer Inflation Hits 2-Year High, Fed Still Seen Cutting.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The US Producer Price Inflation rises to its highest level since April 2022 triggering a sudden decline in stocks. Consumer inflation previously came in lower than expected. Economists still expect a rate cut in September 2025, so investors re-entered at the lower price. Due to this the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500 are all trading higher. A big factor of the day's fundamental analysis will be the Russia-US talks in Alaska.

NASDAQ Regains Losses But Trails Behind

The NASDAQ has been the best performing US index of 2025 and the previous years. However, since the Producer Price Index, the NASDAQ is struggling. The NASDAQ is still trading higher than the decline triggered by yesterday’s PPI but weaker than the SNP500 and Dow Jones.

Prior to the PPI announcement the NASDAQ’s performance in 2025 was trading 5% higher than the SNP500 and 10% higher than the Dow Jones. The NASDAQ is also exposed to markets outside of the technology sector. As a result, investors are opting to invest in the SNP500 and Dow Jones which are known to be less risky and have a lower possibility of being overbought.

Nonetheless, all indices are being positively influenced by the Federal Reserve’s potential move to cut interest rates and today’s meeting between President Trump and President Putin. If the meeting bears fruit, the market sentiment is likely to continue rising. Currently, on Friday 15th, 44% of the most influential stocks are increasing in value, which is relatively low. However, Amazon, Microsoft and NVIDIA are trading higher, supporting the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500.

Dow Jones and SNP500 Outperform The NASDAQ

The Dow Jones is trading 0.76% higher and the SNP500 0.24%. The Dow Jones is performing particularly well as investors believe the index may be trading below its intrinsic value and due to its exposure to defensive stocks. The USA30 is now trading at an all-time high and higher than the resistance levels which can be seen from earlier in the year and 2024.

However, the price will largely depend on the outcome of today’s meeting between President Putin and President Trump as well as the follow up meeting with Ukraine’s leader Zelensky. In addition to this, the release of NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report will also be vital to all US indices.

Lastly, Warren Buffet is known to have recently purchased stocks within the Dow Jones which have declined in 2025. Mr Buffet is known to purchase stocks which are trading below their true value.


Dow Jones 30-Minutes Chart

The US, Federal Reserve And Inflation.

Weekly labor market data showed Initial Jobless Claims at 224,000, slightly below forecasts and the prior reading, while Continuing Claims fell to 1.953 million. Despite the weekly improvement, the broader labor market remains under pressure according to economists. However, this is not necessarily being shown in the actual data. As of yet, the NFP reading is not triggering any alarm bells, but is known as a lagging indicator.

July wholesale inflation surged, with PPI up 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, far above estimates. Core PPI matched the same gains. The data signal rising inflation risks and lessen chances of near-term Fed easing, though Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee still sees scope for policy softening this fall. Mr Goolsbee told journalists, the risks to employment is a particular concern for him.

Key Takeaway Points:

* US Producer Price Inflation hits highest since April 2022, triggering a sudden stock market drop.
* NASDAQ underperforms SNP500 and Dow after PPI data despite strong 2025 gains.
* Dow Jones reaches all-time high on defensive stock exposure and perceived undervaluation.
* Rising PPI reduces odds of near-term Fed easing despite some officials still favoring policy softening.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 18th August 2025.

Week Ahead: Smoke Signals from Jackson Hole.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

It is Jackson Hole time again, with the central banker symposium taking place from August 21–23, 2025. The theme, "Labour Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," is highly relevant as policymakers face shifting global dynamics in the age of Trump tariffs. Investors will be watching closely for Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, which could provide hints on whether the Federal Reserve is leaning toward a September rate cut. The July U.S. jobs report showed a surprise weakening in employment, fueling speculation about easier policy. At the same time, a hot PPI reading raised concerns that tariff-driven inflationary pressures may be starting to filter into the economy. We do not expect Powell to provide clear signals, but his tone will be crucial. Globally, most core central banks are cautiously easing policy to offset growth risks, though persistent inflation continues to complicate decisions.

North America: Powell in the Spotlight

The Jackson Hole symposium will dominate market sentiment this week, with Powell facing the delicate task of balancing labour market weakness with emerging inflation risks. At his July press conference, Powell highlighted inflation concerns over unemployment. However, the July payrolls report shocked markets with a sharp slowdown in hiring, raising the question of whether this is a temporary setback or the start of a more troubling trend. With producer price inflation rising, tariffs appear to be filtering into price measures, complicating the Fed’s mandate. Powell is likely to adopt a cautious stance, warning of both employment risks and inflation risks, while avoiding any suggestion of political pressure from the White House. His “smoke signals” may be deliberately vague, stressing the importance of incoming data before any firm decisions are made.

While Jackson Hole will overshadow the US economic calendar, a series of housing reports will provide additional insights. Housing starts and building permits for July are expected to show further weakness, hovering near multi-year lows. Existing home sales are projected to edge higher but remain well below last December’s pace, while the median sales price will likely post a seasonal decline from June’s record level. The leading economic index is expected to remain at its nine-year low, underscoring broader economic fragility. Alongside Powell, a number of Fed officials will also be speaking this week, including Governor Bowman, Governor Waller, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, while the release of the FOMC minutes will provide additional context on the central bank’s current thinking.

In Canada, attention turns to inflation and retail sales after the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 2.75% in July. While the weak July jobs report raised speculation of a rate cut in September, stronger-than-expected retail sales and persistently firm core inflation suggest Governor Macklem may hesitate to ease further. Inflation has been running above target, with median and trim rates holding near 3%, adding weight to the case for holding policy steady at the September 17 decision.

Europe: PMIs and Inflation in Focus

In the Eurozone, geopolitics and trade continue to dominate sentiment. Preliminary PMI reports are due and are expected to confirm a sluggish growth outlook. Manufacturing activity is likely to slip further into contraction territory, while the services sector may see only a marginal slowdown. The composite PMI is projected to show very weak but ongoing growth. Meanwhile, the second estimate of German Q2 GDP should confirm a small contraction, reflecting weaker external demand after prior quarters were boosted by efforts to front-run tariffs.

Inflation pressures in the region appear to be moderating. Eurozone CPI is expected to remain at 2.0% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.3%. Even Bundesbank President Nagel has signaled less concern over inflation, particularly as German PPI has turned negative. Still, this does not imply additional rate cuts, as policymakers remain cautious about pushing rates below neutral.

In the United Kingdom, stronger growth has reinforced the Bank of England’s cautious stance. July CPI is expected at 3.8% year-over-year, keeping inflation well above target. This reading will likely support hawkish voices within the BoE, even as growth prospects remain mixed. PMI data should show manufacturing still contracting, though with a slight improvement, while services remain steady. Retail sales growth likely slowed in July after a strong June, while public finance data may raise further concerns about the need for tax increases in the autumn budget.

Asia: Central Banks and Signs of a China Slowdown

In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank is expected to resume cutting rates, trimming by 25 basis points to 3.00%. The decision follows weak jobs data, a rise in unemployment, and softer inflation expectations, all of which support further easing. By contrast, Bank Indonesia is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25% after its surprise July cut, as policymakers remain cautious about currency stability.

In China, commercial banks are set to announce loan prime rates, but no changes are expected after the PBoC held policy steady. However, liquidity injections have increased sharply this year, targeting key sectors such as technology, green development, and the digital economy. Despite these efforts, economic data continues to weaken. Industrial activity slowed to its weakest pace since November, retail sales growth cooled, and both new and existing home prices fell again. The combination of a property sector slump and the drag from tariffs has added further strain on domestic growth.

Japan will release CPI, trade data, the tertiary index, and PMI surveys. While GDP growth has strengthened in recent quarters, tariff-related headwinds are evident in weaker exports. CPI remains above 3%, keeping the Bank of Japan inclined toward gradual tightening, though action at the upcoming September policy meeting appears unlikely given global uncertainties.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 19th August 2025.

German Economy Between Tariffs and Investment Boost.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Economic Contraction in the Second Quarter

The German economy is once again showing signs of strain, with activity contracting in the second quarter of 2025. Revised production figures revealed deeper weakness than initially reported, underlining the persistent struggles of Germany’s flagship manufacturing sector. The newly signed trade agreement with the United States is expected to bring additional headwinds, especially for automakers, while Berlin’s recently announced investment boost in infrastructure and defence will take time to filter through into actual production growth. At the same time, the surge in spending across the European Union may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to rethink its monetary policy sooner than expected.

Manufacturing Sector Under Pressure

For much of the past year, Germany’s growth figures have been flattered by businesses front-running anticipated U.S. tariffs. While GDP expanded during the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, much of that momentum came from exporters rushing orders ahead of tariff deadlines. As many analysts warned, this left a demand gap that became visible in the second quarter, when the economy contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. To make matters worse, first-quarter growth was revised lower to 0.3% from the previously reported 0.4%, confirming that overall momentum in the first half of the year was weaker than thought.

The industrial sector remains the hardest hit. Preliminary data point to a sharp contraction, with production plunging 1.9% in June. Adding to the gloom, May’s figures were revised drastically lower to just 0.1% growth from an initial 1.2%. This leaves industrial activity at its weakest level since May 2020. Much of the revision came from updated reports in the automobile sector, where uncertainty over tariff regimes has clouded output and investment decisions.

Tariffs Challenge German Automakers

It is worth noting that seasonal factors, such as Easter falling later in the quarter, may have slightly distorted the numbers. However, the broader trend is clear: Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings confirm the weakness, and ongoing uncertainty over future trade relations with the U.S. has weighed heavily on sentiment. While some clarity has emerged since the deal was signed, the reality is that new tariffs will curb exports, particularly in the critical auto industry, while also disrupting supply chains that are central to German manufacturing.

German automakers, including BMW and Mercedes, had hoped for exemptions given their extensive U.S. investments. Reports even suggested that industry representatives travelled to Washington to propose a reciprocal arrangement: tariff-free imports of EU-made cars in exchange for every U.S.-produced vehicle shipped to Europe. Yet, such proposals failed to gain traction, and manufacturers are now facing the reality of a 15% tariff on U.S. imports of German goods. Behind the scenes, lobbying efforts are expected to continue, but for now, automakers must prepare for a more challenging trade environment.

Berlin’s Investment Boost in Infrastructure and Defence

Against this backdrop, Berlin’s new government has attempted to counteract the drag with an ambitious fiscal program. Having taken office in March, the administration moved swiftly to abandon strict debt limits and pledge a sweeping investment boost, with a particular focus on defence and infrastructure. These efforts build on the rearmament drive that began under the previous government in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but have now accelerated with additional funds.

The results are already visible in the orders data, although volatility remains high due to the presence of large-ticket defence and infrastructure contracts. In June, orders fell by 1.0% month-on-month, following a 0.8% decline in May. Yet, thanks to large-scale contracts, overall orders rose by 3.1% in the second quarter, offering some hope for stronger growth later this year. Stripping out these large orders, however, paints a more modest picture, with demand rising just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. This suggests that any positive impact on GDP may not be immediate.

Orders Data Show Mixed Signals

A closer look at orders data reveals the deep impact of tariffs and shifting trade relations. Orders from abroad fell by 3.0% month-on-month in June, driven by a sharp 7.8% plunge in demand from non-Eurozone countries. By contrast, orders from within the Eurozone rose 5.2%, while domestic demand increased by 2.2%. The divergence underscores Germany’s growing dependence on European and local demand to cushion against the decline in U.S.-linked trade.

Fiscal Expansion and ECB Policy Outlook

The central question now is whether government spending can compensate for the tariff shock. If fiscal stimulus is supported by structural reforms and measures to encourage private investment, it could set the stage for a recovery. However, if higher public spending is not matched by efficiency gains and red-tape reduction, Germany’s fiscal expansion risks backfiring. Bond markets are already signalling concern, with the 30-year German yield climbing to its highest level since 2011.

For the ECB, the shifting policy landscape complicates the outlook. The combination of higher German yields, broader EU defence spending, and resilient inflation pressures could force policymakers to halt the easing cycle earlier than planned. While another rate cut in December remains on the table, markets are increasingly speculating that the ECB may be compelled to raise rates again in the second half of 2025.

Germany at a Crossroads

In short, Germany finds itself at a crossroads. Tariffs and global trade shifts are undermining its traditional export model, while domestic investment is only just beginning to gain traction. Whether the government’s spending spree can offset external headwinds remains uncertain, but the stakes are high—not just for Germany, but for the entire Eurozone economy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 20th August 2025.

NASDAQ Slides Amid AI Profit Concerns: Will The Decline Continue?.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The NASDAQ declines for a sixth consecutive day, measuring a total decline of 3.00%. The decline is largely due to the poor performance of NVIDIA, Broadcom, Palantir Technologies and AMD Stocks. Since April, the NASDAQ has enjoyed a strong run without experiencing a similar lasting decline. So what’s driving the pullback in the tech sector?

Technology Stocks Drag The NASDAQ Lower

The decline is primarily attributed to a speech by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and a report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The OpenAI CEO told journalists that the amount of demand which the technology sector is obtaining, mainly due to AI, could be a bubble. ‘When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,’ Altman said.

However, experts advise that Mr Altman was not referring to all companies investing in AI. Mr Altman’s message, economists note, highlights a growing trend. Investors are actively pouring money into companies simply because they’re tied to AI, whether startups or struggling firms, assuming that AI involvement guarantees potential. However, Altman cautions that this belief is misguided.

The report from the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) is of concern for the NASDAQ and the SNP500. The report revealed a troubling reality: 95% of companies are failing to generate returns from their generative AI investments, casting significant doubt on the technology’s profitability. Investors are concerned that the capital being invested ‘is not bearing fruit and will negatively impact the Return On Equity ratio.

Lastly, traders should note that the decline is also partially due to poor economic data from the week before. This includes extremely high Producer Inflation and a lower Retail Sales figure. Of the most influential stocks, the stocks witnessing the largest declines are Palantir Technologies (-9.35%) and AMD (-5.44%). On Tuesday, only 35% of the most influential stocks saw a price increase.

Will The NASDAQ’s Decline Continue?

When looking at technical analysis, it is understandable that indicators and price action will provide a bearish bias due to the bearish momentum. The price is trading below the Moving Averages, the day’s VWAP and is not trading at any significant support level. However, on larger timeframes, the price is not forming more than a retracement, meaning traders should keep in mind a rebound is possible.

The average size of retracements over the past 3 months is 3.56%. This also suggests that investors may still view the current downward price movement as a retracement or temporary pause.


USA100 2-Hour Chart

Another factor which investors will be keeping a close eye on is global political tensions. Ongoing negotiations between the US, Russia, the EU, and Ukraine have given investors hope for a potential peace agreement, though its details remain unclear. Experts see a possible trilateral summit between the US, Russia, and Ukraine to address key disputes. If this becomes more likely over the upcoming days, the market’s risk sentiment can increase, boosting the NASDAQ.

Key Takeaway Point:

* The NASDAQ fell for a sixth straight day, dropping 3%, largely due to weak performances from NVIDIA, Palantir, and AMD.
* OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and an MIT report warn that much of the AI-driven investment is not generating returns. The development is raising doubts about the tech sector's profitability.
* High Producer Inflation and weak Retail Sales contributed to the tech sell-off, with only 35% of major stocks seeing gains.
* Technical indicators suggest the decline may be a temporary retracement, while ongoing US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations could improve market sentiment if progress occurs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.