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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 26.03.2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:



The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a decline during the Asian session on Wednesday following the release of the Japanese Services Producer Price Index (PPI), which fell to 3.0% year-on-year in February. This, in conjunction with the overall positive tone in equity markets, undermined the safe-haven yen and led to the USD/JPY pair rising above the psychological 150.00 mark during the last hour. However, a significant decline in the yen seems unlikely, as expectations of strong wage growth supporting consumption and spreading to broader inflationary trends allow the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to continue raising interest rates.

The minutes of the BoJ's January meeting, released on Tuesday, confirmed a hawkish outlook, with policymakers discussing the pace of interest rate hikes. This marks a notable divergence from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) forecast of two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025. Consequently, the narrowing rate differential between Japan and the US should provide a tailwind for the low-yielding Japanese Yen, which, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, will drive the USD/JPY pair lower. Traders may also prefer to wait for the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday.

Trade recommendation: BUY 150.90, SL 150.20, TP 152.15

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 27.03.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 87250, SL 85800, TP 97000



Bitcoin continues its desperate struggle against seller pressure. However, it is managing to grow bit by bit. Each step is hard-won, as an instantaneous reaction forces the price to retract or standstill for a while.

It is thought that over time, buyers will be able to break the resistance of their opponents and start growing with greater ease. This could be facilitated by the previously formed initial diagonal triangle, which serves as the first wave in the emerging upward impulse.
Right now, the third wave's extension is likely being formed. If this is indeed the case, we may soon witness a prolonged impulsive upward movement.
Entering buy trades in this situation appears highly promising, so it is recommended to pay attention to this opportunity.

Investment idea: BUY 87250, SL 85800, TP 97000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 28.03.2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Core PCE Price Index

EURUSD:



The EUR/USD exchange rate experienced a positive shift on Thursday, rising four-tenths of a percentage point and breaking a six-day losing streak that saw it lose 2 per cent from peak to peak. Tariff concerns remain a top priority for investors, but there was a brief respite on Thursday as US President Donald Trump shifted his focus to other matters, at least temporarily.

US GDP for Q4 2024 rose 2.4 per cent, surpassing the anticipated 2.3 per cent. However, Moody's has expressed concerns that tariff hikes and tax cuts could lead to a significant increase in government deficits and a potential downgrade in US debt ratings, resulting in higher Treasury yields.

S&P Global has expressed concerns that US policy uncertainty could potentially hinder global growth, while Fitch Ratings has highlighted the potential impact of current tariffs on smaller economies such as Brazil, India and Vietnam, given the challenges they may face in purchasing US goods. The CBO has revised its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.9 per cent, anticipating this growth rate to persist through 2035 and inflation to decelerate to near zero by 2025. They also forecast that the fiscal deficit will rise to 7.3 per cent of GDP in 2025 without policy adjustment, while interest payments could absorb 5.4 per cent of GDP by 2055.

The release of key US data this week, including the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, scheduled for Friday, will provide further insights into the economic outlook. Investors are hopeful that the recent rise in inflation will be short-lived, with median forecasts predicting a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% year-on-year in February.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0780, SL 1.0850, TP 1.0695

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 31.03.2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



The GBP/USD pair is gaining strength and approaching 1.2965 during Asian trading on Monday. Concerns that US President Donald Trump's tariffs will lead to increased inflation and a slowdown in economic growth are exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and providing a supportive environment for the major pair.

Last week, Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on imported cars and light trucks, which will take effect on April 3. This follows an earlier 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium, and comes ahead of Trump's expected announcement of further tariffs on Wednesday. Analysts are concerned that these measures will have a negative impact on the US economy, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to reduce interest rates while also contributing to an increase in inflation in the near term. This, in turn, could lead to a weaker US Dollar and a rise in GBP/USD in the near term.

'Recession risks have risen to up to 40 per cent – due to fears that aggressive US policy will hit business and household sentiment,' warned Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan.

Data from the UK showed that retail sales were unexpectedly strong in February, providing support for the Pound Sterling (GBP). UK retail sales rose by 1.0% month-on-month in February, up from 1.4% previously (revised from 1.7%), as reported by the Office for National Statistics on Friday. This figure was stronger than the forecast for a 0.3 per cent decline. Ruth Gregory, an economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, commented on the positive developments, stating that the improved performance in retail sales during the first quarter suggests a potential turnaround in the economy.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2970, SL 1.2900, TP 1.3030

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 01.04.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 19200, SL 18900, TP 20300



The past trading day for the trading instrument proceeded almost exactly as predicted. The price sharply declined, updating the previous local low, but quickly returned afterward.

It is likely that in the near future, buyers will attempt to rise, although this movement is interpreted as part of a correction taking the form of a zigzag. The diagram of the anticipated price movement is marked on the provided chart.
Thus, the development of the corrective Wave 2 in the emerging downward impulse is expected shortly, and it is possible to attempt to profit by entering buy trades at current market values.

Investment idea: BUY 19200, SL 18900, TP 20300.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 02.04.2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:



The Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to capitalise on the previous day's modest gains against its US counterpart and attracts fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The USD/JPY pair, however, remains in the range it has been in since the beginning of this week as traders await a new catalyst before positioning for the next leg of directional movement. As such, attention will remain focused on US President Donald Trump's announcement of retaliatory tariffs later today.

Meanwhile, speculation that the slowdown in the economy caused by the tariffs may force the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep policy steady for now is undermining the yen. However, investors seem convinced that the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. This is a significant divergence from the growing confidence that the Federal Reserve (BoJ) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June, and should support the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.

Trade recommendation: SELL 150.00, SL 150.90, TP 148.60

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Ethereum under threat: What’s behind the price drop and what could save the cryptocurrency in 2025



Ethereum, one of the most popular and widely used blockchain platforms, is going through a rough patch. Since its launch in 2015, the cryptocurrency has drawn attention for its decentralized nature and its capabilities for smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). However, despite its early success, Ethereum has experienced significant price fluctuations in recent years. According to analysts, its price has dropped approximately 45.4% in the last quarter alone.



Several key factors are driving Ethereum’s recent price decline. First, increasing competition from faster and cheaper blockchains like Solana and Cardano is drawing in users and developers, reducing demand for Ethereum. Second, high transaction fees — especially during times of network congestion — make the platform less attractive for users who prioritize speed and cost-efficiency. Finally, delays in implementing upgrades such as the full transition to Ethereum 2.0 have eroded investor and user confidence, negatively impacting the token’s price.

Despite the current challenges, Ethereum remains one of the most promising cryptocurrencies. In 2025, its value and adoption may rise significantly due to several critical developments:

1. Full transition to Ethereum 2.0: The long-awaited move to Ethereum 2.0 — set to improve transaction speed, enhance security, and reduce fees — could serve as a major growth driver. The switch from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS) will improve the network’s energy efficiency, making it more eco-friendly and cost-effective. With these enhancements, Ethereum could better compete with rival blockchains and attract more users and investors.
2. Boom in Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Ethereum serves as the foundation for many DeFi applications, which continue to gain popularity. In 2025, the growth of DeFi projects and the increasing total value locked in these apps may fuel demand for Ethereum. Ongoing development and integration of new financial instruments in the Ethereum ecosystem will further cement its role in the crypto economy.
3. Emergence of Layer 2 technologies: Layer 2 solutions like Optimistic Rollups and zk-Rollups could greatly enhance Ethereum’s scalability by reducing the load on the mainnet and lowering transaction fees. These technologies are essential for mass adoption, helping Ethereum scale efficiently while maintaining decentralization.
4. Growth of NFTs and asset tokenization: As tokenization and NFTs continue to rise in popularity, Ethereum remains the leading platform in this space. By 2025, we could see further expansion in the NFT market and tokenized assets, driving increased demand for Ethereum as the go-to platform for creating and exchanging digital assets.
5. Global crypto adoption and regulatory clarity: In 2025, regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies are expected to become clearer around the world. With growing government acceptance and legal recognition of crypto assets, Ethereum could become a foundational element of future financial systems—attracting fresh investment and pushing its value higher.

Despite the current headwinds, Ethereum has strong potential for recovery and future growth. FreshForex analysts predict a rebound could occur as early as Q3 or Q4 of 2025, driven by upcoming upgrades and network improvements. Don’t miss the chance to get in at the right time!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 03.04.2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Composite PMI

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims Number

EURUSD:



EUR/USD saw a bullish spike on Wednesday after the Trump administration announced tariffs that were less severe than many investors expected given President Donald Trump's flurry of tariff threats over the past 72 days. While the specific tariff proposals are unclear, U.S. consumers should prepare for flat 10 percent tariffs on all imports, significant 25 percent tariffs on all automobiles and auto parts, and “reciprocal” tariffs imposed at different rates depending on the country.

In addition, Trump has reiterated his intention to impose additional tariffs on goods such as copper, microchips, and other important imported consumer goods that are vital to the U.S. economy. As these tariffs are likely to drive up consumer prices in the coming months and there is no obvious alternative in the market to obtain foreign goods without incurring high import duties, inflationary pressures are expected to rise soon and persist longer than desired. According to Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, the uncertainty of the Trump administration's trade policy is likely to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period beyond previous expectations.

European economic indicators are likely to remain moderately light for the rest of the trading week. Meanwhile, new US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected this Friday. The NFP report could have a significant impact on the markets as the US economy moves into a post-tariff phase, and the March labor statistics will be a key indicator of the impact of the Trump administration's tariff strategy.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.0910, SL 1.0840, TP 1.1030

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Non-Farm Payrolls – April 4: The key market driver

On Friday, April 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM EET, the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This figure reflects the change in the number of jobs in the non-farm sector and is a crucial indicator of economic health. Strong numbers suggest economic expansion and may prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, while weak data could strengthen expectations of rate cuts — impacting stocks, the U.S. dollar, bonds, and commodities.

Historically, NFP reports have triggered significant market reactions, with sharp movements depending on the actual data versus expectations. Analysts forecast a moderate job gain, indicating a slowdown compared to recent months. The release comes amid uncertainty linked to new tariffs introduced by President Trump, which may affect business confidence and consumer spending. Investors are closely watching for signals on the economy’s direction and potential Federal Reserve actions.

How could NFP impact the markets?

• Stock market: Weak data could stoke recession fears, pressuring equities, especially in cyclical sectors. However, if seen as a reason for Fed easing, markets may rebound.
• U.S. Dollar: A disappointing report might weigh on the dollar as investors adjust their rate expectations. Strong figures, on the other hand, would support USD.
• Bonds: Slower job growth could drive demand for U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields lower.
• Gold: In case of weak data, gold may rally as a safe haven amid rising expectations of looser monetary policy.

Economists expect a job gain of around 140,000, lower than previous figures — a scenario that could increase market volatility. Get ready for big moves!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 04.04.2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls

GBPUSD:



GBP/USD briefly broke above 1.3200 for the first time in six months on Thursday and climbed to fresh highs amid widespread weakness in the US Dollar. The Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs and flat tariffs knocked the legs out from under market sentiment, despite a delayed reaction to the tariff announcements that followed after US markets closed on Wednesday.

A fairly quiet calendar of economic publications is expected in the UK this week. However, investor attention will be focused on Friday's release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This data could have a major impact on market sentiment as the US economy enters a post-tariff phase. The March employment report is predicted to be a marker of sorts for the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies.

In addition, the ISM's US services business activity index (PMI) for March, released on Thursday, added to the negativity by falling to 50.8, its lowest level in nine months. The drop in the index was one of the fastest since the pandemic began. Weakening business activity and declining consumer optimism began before the tariffs went into effect, and are unlikely to normalize quickly anytime soon.

President Donald Trump approved the imposition of a 10 percent duty on all imports starting April 5, and the counter tariffs took effect on April 9. Analysts at Fitch Ratings believe U.S. GDP growth will be lower than the March forecast, which had previously been adjusted downward. The agency also warned that the effect of the tariff policy may affect the decisions of the Federal Reserve: the Fed may suspend the easing of monetary policy while it assesses the impact of duties on inflation and labor indicators.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3090, SL 1.3020, TP 1.3200

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