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[Volkov Yuriy]

Bitcoin below $96K – Miners trigger a sell-off

The price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has dropped more than 3% in the past 24 hours, closing around $96,000 amid aggressive selling by miners. Over 2,000 BTC have been transferred to centralized exchanges since Bitcoin’s recovery to $98K, intensifying downward pressure on the market.

This price decline is driven by miners’ efforts to reduce their reserves in response to market instability. At the same time, Bitcoin mining difficulty has increased by 5.6%, signaling new challenges for the industry and adding pressure on the cryptocurrency’s value. Typically, asset transfers to centralized exchanges indicate a readiness to sell, whereas transfers to custodial wallets suggest long-term holding.

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has repeatedly dropped below the $100K mark, influenced by uncertain U.S. trade policies and negative macroeconomic signals from the Labor Department report. A brief recovery failed to sustain bullish momentum, leading to large-scale sell-offs and further price declines, keeping altcoins under constant pressure.

As a significant part of institutional Bitcoin demand, miners continue to shape market dynamics. However, over the past seven days, selling activity has slowed as investors anticipate a potential price rebound.

FreshForex analysts forecast that BTCUSD retains the potential for recovery and even new all-time highs, while Standard Chartered suggests Bitcoin could reach $500K by 2028.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

The global market is rebooting

On February 18, negotiations between the United States and Russia are scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia. These talks could pave the way for restoring economic relations and addressing global challenges.



“American companies lost over $300 billion by exiting the Russian market,” said Kirill Dmitriev, head of RFPI, on the eve of talks with the U.S. delegation in Saudi Arabia. He emphasized the importance of economic dialogue, noting that the Russian market remains attractive to investors.

It is now known that several major American companies intend to return to Russia. Amid a potential thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, Visa (#Visa), Mastercard (#MasterCard), Apple (#Apple), PepsiCo (#PepsiCo) and McDonald's (#McDonald) have all announced their intentions in recent days.

The U.S. stock market remains resilient thanks to domestic growth drivers. Additionally, several key factors are expected to drive growth in the near future:

Federal reserve monetary policy: A possible rate cut or maintaining low interest rates is spurring investments. This, in turn, boosts company valuations and pushes up indices such as the Dow Jones (#DJI30) and S&P 500 (#SP500).
Technology sector: Ongoing advancements in AI, cloud services, and biotechnology are attracting capital. Moreover, integrating artificial intelligence into large businesses helps reduce costs by automating routine processes, while AI algorithms enhance strategic planning and risk management.
Corporate earnings growth: Increasing corporate profits are one of the key factors supporting the positive momentum in the stock market, including the S&P 500 (#SP500), which reflects the performance of the 500 largest U.S. companies. Strong quarterly reports from these companies play a crucial role in reinforcing investor confidence and ensuring market stability.
Geopolitical expectations: Tensions among major global players like the U.S., EU, and Russia could lead to sanctions, trade wars, and economic restrictions, which negatively impact the global economy and stock markets. A thaw in relations could reduce the likelihood of such conflicts and, consequently, lower the risks associated with sanctions and instability.

FreshForex analysts are confident that as geopolitical tensions ease, companies will start to return, which will undoubtedly drive up their stock prices. Don’t miss this chance – invest in stocks with us!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 27, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch out for today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is losing ground to the 1.0470 level during Asian trading on Thursday. The euro (EUR) is weakening after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on the European Union. Investors await the release of the U.S. fourth-quarter (Q4) gross domestic product (GDP) estimate and weekly initial jobless claims due later on Thursday for fresh momentum.

Late Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his intention to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and added the European Union (EU) to the list of countries for whose imports he would penalize U.S. consumers. The EU has vowed to respond “firmly and immediately” to “unjustified” trade barriers, indicating that it is prepared to retaliate quickly if new duties are imposed. Trump's tariff threats could worsen the Eurozone's economic slowdown and cause the common currency to depreciate against the U.S. dollar (USD).

Across the ocean, concerns about US economic growth have heightened expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will make at least two rate cuts this year, undermining the USD. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a 2025 rate easing of around 58 basis points (bps), although rates are expected to remain flat over the next few months.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0470, SL 1.0520, TP 1.0400

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[Volkov Yuriy]

SHOCK! Trump to host crypto summit at the White House!

On March 7, the White House will host its first-ever crypto summit, chaired by Donald Trump. The event will bring together top leaders of the crypto industry, including Coinbase (#Coinbase) CEO Brian Armstrong, MicroStrategy (#MicroStrgy) founder Michael Saylor, and others. Key discussion topics will include crypto industry regulation, stablecoin oversight, the strategic role of Bitcoin in the U.S. economy, and the establishment of a national crypto reserve.

One of the summit’s highlights is the initiative to create a strategic U.S. crypto reserve, which will include Cardano (ADAUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), XRP (XRPUSD), as well as Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD).

This move aims to strengthen America’s position in the global digital economy and expand the dollar’s influence. Donald Trump emphasizes that the U.S. must lead in blockchain technology development, promoting the adoption of digital assets in the global financial system. Beyond regulation and reserves, the summit will also address cryptocurrency taxation and potential incentives for businesses operating in the sector.



Key growth drivers for the crypto market:

• Government support & regulation: High-level officials participating in the summit and the introduction of regulatory frameworks focused on transparency and security create a favorable environment for market growth. Clear regulations encourage institutional investors to enter the space.

• Establishment of a strategic crypto reserve: The U.S. aims to include top cryptocurrencies in its national assets, boosting their credibility and investor confidence. This could strengthen digital assets’ role in the global financial system.

• Blockchain technology advancements: The adoption of innovations such as smart contracts, decentralized finance (DeFi), and blockchain integration into traditional industries expands the use cases for cryptocurrencies and increases demand.

• Rising adoption among users & businesses:Simplified crypto transactions, improved infrastructure, and a growing number of businesses accepting crypto payments contribute to the rising popularity of digital assets among the public.

The White House Crypto Summit will be a landmark event for the industry, setting the stage for the crypto market’s future development. Analysts at FreshForex believe that government recognition, clear regulatory frameworks, and technological innovations will provide a solid foundation for the continued growth and strengthening of digital assets in the global economy.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 10, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



The GBP/USD pair began the new week positively, trading at around 1.2940-1.2945 during the Asian session and matching the four-month high reached on Friday.The bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) supports the prospects of extending the momentum of last week's breakout above the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD against a basket of currencies, is approaching its lowest point since early November, a development that followed Friday's weak monthly US jobs data.The headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) data revealed that the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the consensus estimates. In addition, the previous month's data was revised downward to 125k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.This comes amid fears that US President Donald Trump's policies will hit US economic activity, and suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates several more times this year. Current market predictions indicate approximately three 25bp rate cuts this year, a development that persists in exerting pressure on the pound and thereby supporting the GBP/USD pairing.The remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he expressed that the US central bank has no intention of hastily reducing interest rates, did not provide any respite for those who advocate a strengthening of the dollar.

Conversely, the British pound is bolstered by the anticipation that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a more gradual rate reduction approach compared to other major central banks, including the Fed.This dynamic is further fueling demand for the GBP/USD pair, underscoring a positive outlook.Absent significant market-moving economic data from the UK or the US, the US dollar is expected to exert influence on spot prices, enabling traders to capitalize on short-term opportunities.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.2890, SL 1.2950, TP 1.2780

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 11.03.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 78600, SL 76250, TP 84000



The value of cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, continues to face challenges. The price is falling again, and the minimum of the current year has already been updated. However, it should be noted that the break of the 78,105 level was not very convincing, and buyers are doing their utmost to cling to this extreme. It is quite possible that from here, the price will finally react and we will see at least a minor bounce.

From the perspective of the current wave scenario, the observed decline is likely forming within a correction represented by a double zigzag, where work is underway on its final part, Wave y of (ii).
It is quite possible that the specified correction will conclude shortly, and the price will rise significantly. For this reason, it is recommended to once again consider the possibility of buying.

Investment idea: BUY 78600, SL 76250, TP 84000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Why did stocks and cryptocurrencies crash, and when can we expect a rebound?

At the beginning of March 2025, markets experienced a significant decline due to several key factors. One of the main reasons was increased economic uncertainty following the introduction of new U.S. trade tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada. As a result of the trade wars initiated by Trump, the world’s wealthiest individuals lost over $40 billion since the beginning of the year. From March 7 to March 10, 2025, shares of leading tech companies and the Nasdaq 100 index (#NQ100) suffered a sharp drop: Tesla’s stock (#Tesla) plunged by 15%, Apple’s shares (#Apple) declined by 4.9%, Nvidia’s stock (#NVIDIA) fell by 5.1%, and the #NQ100 index dropped by 4%.

In the digital asset market, the downturn accelerated after investors failed to see the expected government support for cryptocurrencies. Initial regulatory announcements, which initially sparked optimism, turned out to be vague, leading to disappointment and profit-taking. Finally, fears of a potential recession, fueled by statements from the U.S. president, further eroded investor confidence in both the stock and crypto markets. Collectively, these factors led to a broad market decline and heightened volatility. As a result, Bitcoin dropped nearly 15% between March 7 and March 10, 2025, reaching $77,500.



Despite the current challenges, several factors could contribute to market recovery and growth in 2025:

Advancements in technology and artificial intelligence: Companies specializing in AI and high-tech development continue to attract investments. Giants like Microsoft (#Microsoft) and Google (#Google) are expected to strengthen their positions by expanding AI applications in business and daily life.
Growth in the healthcare and biotechnology sectors: Pharmaceutical and biotech companies remain resilient to economic downturns due to sustained demand for healthcare and innovative treatments. Companies researching cancer and autoimmune disease treatments are expected to draw increasing investor attention.
Transition to green energy: Renewable energy companies are showing steady growth. Tesla (#Tesla) remains a key player, and 2025 is expected to see further expansion in solar, wind energy, and battery technology companies.
Macroeconomic policy stabilization: The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more predictable monetary policy, potentially reducing market volatility and boosting investor confidence. In 2024, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation, which pressured stock markets and limited access to cheap money. However, by 2025, inflation has begun to slow, which could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy and possible rate cuts.
Institutional investments in cryptocurrencies: A crucial factor is the integration of blockchain technology into the financial sector. Companies like Visa (#Visa) and Mastercard (#Mastercard) are expanding their support for crypto payments, while PayPal (#PayPal) is actively incorporating stablecoins into its ecosystem. This trend is driving broader adoption of digital assets and their practical use in the real economy.

Despite the current challenges, there are significant chances for recovery and growth in both stock and cryptocurrency markets. Analysts at FreshForex predict a market rebound in the second and third quarters of 2025 — don’t miss out!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 12, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:



The Japanese yen (JPY) continued to lose ground against its US counterpart for the second day in a row and moved away from the highest level since October, reached the previous day. Fears that US President Donald Trump may impose new tariffs against Japan have proved to be key factors undermining the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Data released today showed that Japan's annual wholesale inflation, the Producer Price Index (PPI), rose by 4.0% in February, indicating that inflationary pressures are intensifying. In addition, hopes that the sharp wage increases seen last year will continue into this year support the market's growing confidence that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further. This, should serve as a tailwind for the low-yielding yen and help limit losses.

In addition, lingering concerns over the possible economic consequences of Trump's trade policies and a global trade war should support the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is near multi-month lows amid expectations that a tariff-induced slowdown in the US economy will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut borrowing costs several times this year. This should help limit the USD/JPY pair's rise.

Trade recommendation: SELL 148.35, SL 148.95, TP 147.35

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 13.03.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 19650, SL 19300, TP 20650



A mistake may have been made in the wave analysis of this instrument, necessitating corrections. The observed decline was excessively prolonged, leading to a breach of critical levels. This movement is unlikely to be part of the corrective Wave 4. There is a high probability that this marks the beginning of a new phase in the market's price movement.

The upward movement, characterized by a lengthy and extending impulse, may have concluded. The subsequent decline could represent the first wave in an emerging downward impulse or a deep and prolonged correction.
In any case, a high probability of growth exists in the near term, aimed at correcting the preceding decline. Following this, another wave of downward movement is anticipated.

Investment idea: BUY 19650, SL 19300, TP 20650.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 14.03.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:



EUR/USD declines to 1.0835 during Asian trading on Friday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid an escalating trade war between the United States and the European Union. Later on Friday, the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for February and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March will be released.

Late Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200 percent tariffs on imports of wine, cognac and other alcohol from Europe. The measure was in response to EU plans to impose tariffs on U.S. whiskey and other products in April, itself a response to Trump's 25 percent duties on steel and aluminum imports that took effect Wednesday. The latest twist in the escalating trade war is putting pressure on the common currency.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said U.S. tariffs on imported goods could push Germany, Europe's largest economy, into another recession, adding to the country's economic woes. “We live in a world with tariffs, so we can expect a recession this year if tariffs are indeed imposed,” Nagel said Thursday.

On the other hand, weak U.S. economic data and concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy could weigh on the dollar and limit the major pair's decline. Barclays analysts have adjusted their forecast on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decisions and now expect two quarter-point rate cuts in June and September. Barclays had previously forecast one rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) in June. Short-term interest rate futures put the probability of a quarter-point Fed discount rate cut in June at nearly 75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0850, SL 1.0890, TP 1.0765

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