Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Yvonne » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:18 am

Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 08, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Industrial Production m/m, French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q, French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q, and French Industrial Production m/m. The US will not publish any economic data today, so amid such conditions, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1396.

Strong Resistance: 1.1389.

Original Resistance: 1.1378.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1367.

Target Inner Area: 1.1340.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1313.

Original Support: 1.1302.

Strong Support: 1.1291.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1284.

(Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Yvonne » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:34 am

Forecast for USD/JPY on February 11, 2019

The yen continues to build up strength before breaking out on the resistance of the Krusenstern line daily scale. The price is held by the balance line on the chart of the smaller period-H4. The Marlin line seeks to go out into the growth zone. On the daily chart, the line of this oscillator unfolds in the continuation of growth. The price exit over 110.04 - resistance of the Krusenstern line, will make it possible for the price to attack the Krusenstern line of the higher chart and rise to 110.36 - the resistance of the trend line of the price channel on the daily. Exit above this line opens the way to the resistance of the next line at 111.24.

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:20 am

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 12, 2019

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released. The US will publish the economic data such as JOLTS Job Openings and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1331.
Strong Resistance: 1.1325.
Original Resistance: 1.1314.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1303.
Target Inner Area: 1.1277.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1251.
Original Support: 1.1240.
Strong Support: 1.1229.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1223.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:27 am

EUR/AUD Approaching Support, Prepare For Bounce

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EUR/AUD is approaching its support at 1.5888 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 1.5972 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is nearing its support at 2.4% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

EUR/AUD is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 1.5888. Stop loss at 1.5845. Take profit at 1.5972.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:48 am

EURUSD: US inflation unchanged. Eurozone continues to slide into recession

The euro fell slightly after data showed that industrial production in the euro zone declined more than expected in December. However, buyers immediately activated in the area of important support levels and did not allow a larger downward movement to be formed.

According to the report, industrial production in the eurozone in December 2018 declined immediately by 0.9% compared with November, while the interviewed economists expected a reduction of 0.3% only. Such weak indicators once again confirm the fact of more than a serious slowdown in the economy at the past and at the beginning of this year.

In the afternoon, there was data on inflation in the United States. Despite the weak report, the US dollar regained some of the positions that was lost yesterday which was paired with the euro.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, consumer prices in the United States in January 2019 remained unchanged in comparison with the previous month, while economists had expected an increase of 0.1%. The base consumer price index, which does not take into account volatile categories, including energy, rose by 0.2% compared with December. Economists had expected the base index to rise by 0.2% in January as well. As compared with the same period of the previous year, prices rose by 1.6% in January, yet it is not enough for the Federal Reserve's target level. Base prices, on the other hand, rose by 2.2% compared with January 2018.

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The British pound fell immediately after data released indicating that the rate of consumer price inflation in the UK slowed down and was beneath the target level set by the Bank of England.

The main reason for such a sharp decrease was the fall in energy prices at the end of last year.

According to the data, the consumer price index CPI UK in January 2019 increased by 1.8% compared with January 2017 and an increase of 2.1% back in December. The basic level of the Bank of England is around 2%.

The base index, which excludes volatile categories, but includes food, tobacco products, and energy, rose 1.9% in January, as well as in December.

Bear in mind that quite recently, the Bank of England announced that they were not refusing further increases in interest rates. However, given these indicators, it is unlikely that anyone will hurry to tighten monetary policy unnecessarily in the future, which may weaken the position of the British pound, and which will be eliminated under pressure due to the uncertain Brexit scenario and slowdown in the British economy.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD pair, yesterday's upward correction, which was observed in the second half of the day, may continue today. However, this requires breaking through the important resistance levels of 1.2920 and 1.2980.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:12 am

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 15, 2019

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Trade Balance and Italian Trade Balance. The US will also publish the economic data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Import Prices m/m, and Empire State Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1346.
Strong Resistance: 1.1340.
Original Resistance: 1.1329.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1318.
Target Inner Area: 1.1292.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1266.
Original Support: 1.1255.
Strong Support: 1.1244.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1238.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:53 am

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 18, 2019

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Today, when the European and the US markets open, no economic data will be released. So amid this condition, the EUR/USD pair will probably move with a low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1346.
Strong Resistance: 1.1340.
Original Resistance: 1.1329.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1318.
Target Inner Area: 1.1292.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1266.
Original Support: 1.1255.
Strong Support: 1.1244.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1238.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:06 am

EUR/USD: the next resistance level is 1.1370

The dollar index goes down, while the euro rises in price for almost all currency pairs: the first trading day of the week continued the trend from Friday, when the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the annual low and restored all lost positions. Today, the downward price dynamics have continued.

The main driving force behind the EUR/USD's price growth is the news background on the prospects for trade relations between the US and China. Let me remind you that this week the parties will resume the negotiation process, which may culminate in the conclusion of a "truce" between the two countries. To be more precise, the parties can only come to a framework agreement, where only the main positions of the future document will be indicated. This "letter of intent" will form the basis of a future deal, the details of which will be discussed between the leaders of the People's Republic of China and the United States during a personal meeting.

Over the weekend, Donald Trump said that "great progress" had already been made on the issue of concluding a trade deal, and he is optimistic about the prospects for the upcoming talks. A similar position was voiced by the leader of China Xi Jinping. According to him, the parties managed to achieve significant success in resolving trade disputes. In unison with their leaders, the negotiations and high-ranking officials, in particular, the US Treasury Secretary, the US Trade Representative, and the Vice-Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, Liu He, appreciated the negotiations.

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Such optimism was reflected in market sentiment. The US dollar, which is usually in demand against the backdrop of increasing global problems, began to actively slow down. The dollar index moved away from local highs in the area of 96.9, not finding the strength to test the 97th figure. And although the decline in this indicator is fairly smooth, the causal link is obvious: the closer Beijing and Washington are to the deal, the weaker the position of dollar bulls.

However, the EUR/USD did not increase only because of this factor. The Brexit theme also concerns traders of the pair, given the approaching deadline. It is worth noting that the news flow regarding the prospects of the "divorce process" does not always affect the pair (unlike the pound, where this topic is in indisputable priority). The single currency reacts to Brexit news mainly when the parties closely approach the red lines of the negotiation process. This week Theresa May will hold talks with the EU leadership (in particular, with Juncker) and with the leaders of the EU countries.

The central issue is the regime of the Irish border, namely, the mechanism of the backstop, which is the main irritating factor for the majority of British deputies. During the weekend there were rumors that the representatives of France offered Brussels to make some certain concessions on this issue, so that the negotiations would move from a dead point. Although journalists later denied this information, traders are still optimistic about the future, in the hope of a long-awaited compromise on the backstop issue. The European currency follows the pound, although at the moment there are no significant reasons for the price increase: there are a lot of rumors around the upcoming talks, which sometimes contradict each other.

In such circumstances, it is impossible to make any clear predictions, so this fundamental factor can not be called reliable. By the way, a UK government spokesman said today that following a European voyage by the prime minister, the Cabinet could change the terms of the deal or even delay Brexit. This suggests that London doubts that Theresa May will be able to convince her colleagues that the terms of the deal need to be revised. But traders are still inclined to believe optimistic rumors, so both the pound and the euro show a positive trend.

The Bundesbank report published today also provided indirect support to the EUR/USD pair. Recently, news from Germany does not please investors: economists of the German government revised the forecast of GDP growth downwards, and macroeconomic indicators for December and January were released in the "red zone".

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The report of the German central bank also acknowledged the slowdown of the main parameters of the national economy. But at the same time, members of the regulators stressed that they did not observe any signs that a slowdown in GDP growth would turn into a decline in the economy. Such an unexpected conclusion was supported by the European currency, especially against the background of Monday's nearly empty economic calendar. During the European session, the Bundesbank report became the only more or less significant source of news, while the American sites are closed today on the occasion of the celebration of Presidents Day.

Thus, the euro-dollar pair has the potential for further correctional growth: today, the price tested the first resistance level of 1.1340 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart). If the pair bulls overcome this barrier, they will approach a stronger level - 1.1370 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe).

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:33 am

Brent: appetite grows while eating

Growth of the global risk appetite against the background of the de-escalation of the US-Chinese trade conflict has made it possible for oil to climb to the area of three-month highs. Black gold is growing along with global stock indexes in the hope that the end of the trade war will increase global demand. Although OPEC has reduced its growth forecast for this indicator to 1.24 million b/d for 2019, investors believe that the recovery of the economies of the eurozone and China will provide an opportunity for it to expand faster. If we add to this the effectiveness of operations to reduce the cartel's production as well as other producing countries by 1.2 million b/d, it becomes clear why Riyadh allows itself to make loud statements that the allies managed to bring the market to a normal state.

Leaders bear the greatest burden. Saudi Arabia plans to reduce production to 9.8 million b/d in March, which is 500 thousand b/d more than the country's commitments. Its exports have already declined by 1.3 million b/d in the first half of February. With OPEC's fall in production to 30.81 million b/d in January, the strengthening factor of global risk appetite made it possible for Brent and WTI to play a fifth of their value since the beginning of the year.

Dynamics of oil and OPEC production

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Finally, financial managers who previously preferred to take a wait-and-see position actually waited. By the end of the week, by February 12, they had increased their longs in the North Sea variety by 10%, which is the fastest growth rate since August. Shorts reduced by 5.5%. Thus, speculators have become net buyers of Brent at 32 million barrels in equivalent.

The weakness of the US dollar played a significant role in the rise of oil to three-month highs. Fans of the USD index have been helped for a long time by the desire of central bank competitors of the Fed to adhere to ultra-soft monetary policy, but the progress in Washington and Beijing talks reduced the demand for safe-haven assets, causing a serious blow to the US currency. At the same time, HSBC Holdings warns that if something goes wrong in further negotiations between Washington and Beijing, then black gold will plunge into a wave of sales.

Indeed, the rise in prices allows American manufacturers to feel at ease. The number of rigs from Baker Hughes rose to 857 in the week to February 15, and the US Energy Information Administration predicts that production in 2020 will reach a record figure of 13 million b/d. Companies registered in the United States are used to hedge risks and the growth of Brent and WTI allows them to increase production even at unprofitable price levels. Sooner or later this circumstance will be felt, however, during at time when the market is in a state of euphoria because of the expectations of the end of the trade war.

Technically, the breakthrough of resistance at $64.1 per barrel brought the bulls on Brent to an operational space. They were able to develop a correction as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern to 5-0 and are ready to push futures quotes to the level of 50% of the CD wave. It corresponds to $68.4. Brent daily chart

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:01 am

EUR/USD. What will the minutes of the Fed reveal?

The minutes of the January Federal Reserve meeting will be published tonight - the so-called "minutes". The results of the regulator's first meeting this year were disappointing for the US dollar. The Fed finally confirmed its policy of slowing down the tightening of monetary policy. In the text of the accompanying statement, as well as during the speech of the Fed chairman, the word "patience" was often mentioned, therefore the market does not expect any "hawkish" notes from the minutes.

A certain intrigue of today's release remains. The market will first of all evaluate - how monolithic the decision to slow down the rate of rate increase looks. If the number of "doves" will significantly exceed the "hawkish" wing, then the dollar will again be under additional pressure. Yesterday's comments by Loretta Mester (which, by the way, has no voting rights this year) have weakened the greenback throughout the market. This suggests that dollar bulls are still sensitive to the soft statements of members of the Federal Reserve, even though the other central banks of the leading countries of the world have also taken a "defense position". The monetary policy outlook of the Fed is gradually coming to the forefront against the background of the expected breakthrough in the US-China trade negotiations. If Beijing and Washington find a common denominator this week and make a deal before March 1 (or announce it by extending the deadline for additional approvals), the dollar will lose a significant trump card for its growth.

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Under these circumstances, the Fed may either increase pressure on the greenback, or become a "saving straw", especially against the background of softening the rhetoric of the ECB and other central banks. It is worth noting that the Fed's report, which will be published today, might provide unexpected support for the US currency. The fact is that the market expects too soft rhetoric from the members of the regulator. If the minutes demonstrates some disagreement within the Committee, the market reaction may disappoint EUR/USD bulls. In my opinion, the dollar can collapse throughout the market only if the regulator hints at a possible pause until the end of this year. And although this option is unlikely, it cannot be ruled out, given the recent speeches of Fed members.

This is not just about Loretta Mester, who was mentioned above. Today, her position was repeated by one of the most influential members of the regulator - the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams. Moreover, he stated that he did not see the need to raise the rates - only if circumstances of a "shocking" nature emerge. In his opinion, the rate has already reached its neutral level - at least the lower limit of this range.

This rhetoric is very consonant with the position of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who at the end of last year designated the neutral level range of 2.5% -3.5%, while declaring that the monetary tightening cycle was gradually coming to an end. This year, the US regulator can more clearly articulate its idea: the rate has reached a neutral level, then the Fed will act according to circumstances, responding to incoming data. Although these findings have long been floating in the air, their "fixation" will provoke strong volatility in the market, and this volatility will not be in favor of the dollar. By the way, Williams in today's speech added that the Fed will continue to reduce the volume of the bond portfolio on the balance sheet - according to his estimates, the reduction process may end when the balance drops to one trillion dollars.

In general, the dynamics of today's trading confirms the fears of investors: the euro/dollar pair froze in a flat, especially against the background of a half-empty economic calendar. Here it is worth recalling that, in addition to the publication of the Fed minutes, the results of the meeting between the British prime minister and the head of the European Commission will be announced. If, despite all the circumstances, they will be able to move the situation from a dead point, the single currency will receive a strong enough support, which will undoubtedly affect the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair.

Thus, the events of today's evening can either lead the pair to the borders of the 14th figure (with an attempt to test), or return to the area of the 12th figure). Fundamental factors are too unpredictable, so it is almost impossible to talk about the probability of the implementation of a particular scenario.

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From a technical point of view, it is important for EUR/USD bulls to stay above 1,1305 (Tenkan-sen line) in order for it to not lose the potential for growth and approach the next resistance level of 1,1390 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). Bears of the pair, in turn, need to consolidate below 1.1270 – in this case, the Ichimoku indicator will form a bearish "Parade of lines" signal, and the price itself will be between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe.

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