"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The strong US employment data supported the dollar. The labour market continued to encourage investors that the USA economy will keep recovering.

Current situation

The EUR/USD has been trading in a range for 3 weeks now. Yesterday the pair remained under pressure in the red zone, the trades were neutral. The resistance is at 1.1130, the support comes in at 1.1050.

The indicators recommend short positions. MACD is in the negative area that confirms sellers’ strength. RSI is close to the oversold area. If the oscillator continues to grow, it will be a buy signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart which is a sell signal. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA which limited its growth in the 1 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

Even though the EUR/USD is neutral the pair is still in a red zone. We believe that the instrument will remain there for a while. A downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below the support level 1.1000 (a strong psychological level).



Pound

General overview

The unexpectedly strong employment report strengthened the US dollar against its major counterparts. The growth of the dollar pressured the British pound. The Bank of England will meet this week and the regulator may lower the rate from 0.50% to 0.25%. This news will have a strong impact on the pound in the coming days.

Current situation

The pair pond/dollar remained under pressure. There is a downward trend on the daily chart. The pair is in a descending channel in the 4 hours chart. Yesterday the pair tested the mark of 1.2840 but failed to fixate at it and returned above the level of 1.2900. The indicators recommend short positions. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator may cross the centerline upwards. If the indicator gets into the positive area it will give us a buy signal. RSI is growing which is a buy signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart which is a sell signal. The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hours chart. The 100-EMA acts as a resistance and does not let the pound to grow.

Trading recommendations

The current rebound above 1.2900 should be considered corrective. The pair traded sideways while waiting for the new drivers. If the pair manages to make a breakout of 1.3100 it may grow towards 1.3300. Once we break below the 1.2900 level, we think that the 1.2700 level will be next.



Yen

General overview

Machinery Orders unexpectedly fell in Japan. The strong yen and weak demand undermined corporate profits and spending plans in the country. The unexpected decrease of Machinery Orders indicates a slowdown in the investments.

Current situation

The pair USD/JPY recovered and gained about 2,11% yesterday. The instrument stopped its climbing at the 102.80 area. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is seen at 102.50.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart which is a sell signal. Yesterday the instrument broke through the 50-EMA and 100-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The USD/JPY broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are turning upwards in the 1 hours chart.

Indicators are moving in the green area. MACD may cross the centerline upwards and move into the positive area. Its growth will indicate the buyers’ strength. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator continues its growth it will be a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

Buyers have the ball now. We believe the growth will be continued. The pair may grow to the resistance level 103.50. After breaking 103.50 the buyers may advance to 104.50.



NZD/USD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar weakened against the US dollar, the NZD / USD pair lost about 0.93%. Oil prices pressured commodity currencies due to the recovery of drilling activity recovery in the US.

Current situation

The sellers took control over the market. The pair NZD/USD finished the day a red zone, the NZD lost about 1,07% on Monday. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support is seen at 0.7150.

MACD decreased that indicated that buyers’ positions weakened. RSI left the overbought area and it is in the neutral zone now. The decrease of the oscillator indicates the sellers’ strength.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are growing in the 4 hours chart which is a buy signal. The quotes broke the 50-EMA and stopped at the 100-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 100-EMA acts as a support now.

Trading recommendations

According to the daily chart the trend is objectively bullish. However, we recommend going short now with the first target – 0.7150 (the 50-EMA). We will buy the price from the lower levels. The price may rebound from the 0.7150 level to grow to 0.7250.



GOLD

General overview

On Monday, gold futures rose while trading to 28-months high. According to the market rumors the Fed will remain cautious regarding its interest rates, despite the positive employment reports.
Current situation

Even though the price lost about 1,04% yesterday the gold quotations remained in the green zone. The pair showed a low volatility on Monday. The price was trading between the levels 1355 and 1374. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

The indicators showed a growth continuation on the Daily chart. MACD decreased that indicates the buyers’ weakness. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart which is a buy signal. The gold broke the 50-EMA and stopped at the 100-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 100-EMA acts as a support for the pair for now.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1360 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1390. We do not exclude pull-backs to 1330 and 1300.



Brent

General overview

Investors are waiting for oil reports and Chinese GDP publication.

Current situation

The buyers tried to raise the oil price yesterday but failed to succeed. The Brent stopped around the 47th figure. During the American session sellers returned to the market and the price fell below the level 46.50. The resistance is at 46.50, the support is at 45.30.

The indicators are in the red zone. The MACD histogram decreased. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the indicators remain at the same levels, it will be a sell signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The price is below the EMAs, it is a sell signal. The Brent futures touched the 50-EMA and bounced downwards from it in the 1 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the level of 46.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 45.30.



NASDAQ

General overview

The major US stock indexes rose on Monday amid an increased confidence in the US economy. Investors received the proof of the USA economy recovery after the impressive employment data release last Friday. In addition, Labor Market Conditions Index in the USA moderately improved in June which supported the index as well.

Current situation

The index NASDAQ continued its growth on Monday. The index was supported by Non-Farm release which was published last Friday. The resistance comes at 4600, the support exists at 4550.

The general trend is up at the Daily chart. Indicators are in the green zone. MACD grew that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area, it is also a buy signal.
The technical picture was mixed yesterday. The speedy 50-EMA broke through the 100-EMA and approached the 200 EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200-EMAs are horizontal. The 1 hours chart showed another picture. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the quotes.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The buyers’ target is the level 4600.



S&P 500

General overview

The unexpected growth of the Non-Farm Payrolls allowed the S&P 500 to set a record high. There is no resistance now as the index has never been this high before. All major US stock indexes were able to recover to the pre-Brexit levels.

Current situation

The S&P 500 gapped upwards at the Monday trades opening. After that the instrument continued its rally which it started last Friday. The resistance comes in at 2140, the support exists at 2120.

Technically, the sentiment held as bullish. MACD is in the green zone that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area, it is also a buy signal.

The 50-EMA broke upwards the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart which is a buy signal. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the instrument.

Trading recommendations

As bulls have the ball now the growth will be continued. The levels 2140 and 2150 are the next buyers’ targets. We do not exclude pull-backs towards the mark 2100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.07.2016

Euro

General overview

While the markets were analyzing the latest USA Labour Market report, the dollar fell against other major currencies. Investors changed their focus from the Brexit and its consequences to the upcoming Central Banks meetings.

Current situation

The pair EUR/USD rebounded upward from the level 1.1050 and tested the resistance level 1.1130. However the price slightly fell to the level 1.1100 by the end of the trades. The market will present a modest positive tone in the short term. The resistance is at 1.1130, the support comes in at 1.1050.

MACD remained in the negative territory. The indicator is ready to leave it. The histogram is at the centerline. Its growth will show the sellers’ weakness and buyers’ strength. RSI is in the neutral zone giving no signal.

The technical indicators have retreated from the overbought territory. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart which is a sell signal. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. However the 100-EMA rejected the pair downwards. The price is between the 50-EMA and 100-EMA that act as a support and a resistance. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards in the 1 hours chart that may become a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is under pressure. If the EUR/USD does make a breakout at that level 1.1050 the instrument may decrease to 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

The news that Theresa May may become the next Prime Minister supported the pound. This news lowered the political uncertainty which followed the Brexit. However, the pound remained under pressure expecting the possible rate hike this Thursday.

Current situation

The British pound recovered and bounced from the post-Brexit 31-year low at 1.2790. The instrument reached the fresh 1-week high at 1.3300 during the course of the day. The pair gained more than 250 pips throughout the day and left the resistance 1.3100 behind. However, technically, the GBP remained under bearish pressure. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD crossed the zero line upwards and moved to the positive zone that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is above 70 and is overbought which also supports buyers. If the oscillator remains in the overbought area, it will strengthen the bulls’ positions.

The pound broke the 50-EMA and approached the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 1 hour chart showed that the instrument broke the 50, 100 EMAs and headed higher and already above the 200 EMA.

Trading recommendations

In the potential scenario, the next stop for the GBP/USD could well be around 1.3500 that acts as a strong resistance for the pound.



Yen

General overview

Shinzo Abe's victory in the recent elections did not support the yen. The yen remained under bearish pressure waiting for the fresh stimulus package. Risk appetite also put pressure on the yen.

Current situation

The yen fell to its lowest levels in over two weeks against the dollar. The pair USD/JPY continued its growth and broke the resistance levels of 103.50 and 104.50. Yesterday the pair showed a growth by 2,31%. The resistance stands at 105.30, the support is seen at 104.50.

The indicators MACD and RSI kept heading north in the 4 hours chart. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram continued it growth that indicates buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought territory which strengthened the buyers’ positions.

The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs and headed further upwards in the 4 hours chart. The EMAs are turning upwards after the price.

Trading recommendations

Buyers still control the market. We are looking for the resistance 105.30 break and then continuation of a growth with a further target at 106.00.



AUD/USD

General overview

The AUD/USD presented a stable growth despite the Brexit results. The rate in the country is the one of the highest in the world and its economy is one of the most stable. The AUD also gets support from the upcoming stimulus measures in Japan.

Current situation

The Australian dollar as a commodity currency jumped as risk appetite returned to the markets. The price grew in the ascending channel and reached its upper limit. The AUD/USD broke through the level of 0.7600 upwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7600.

MACD is in the positive area and continued its growth that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area that also supports upward trend.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are growing in the 4 hours chart which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.7700 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.7800 will be opened after this breakthrough.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures showed negative dynamics due to the possible stimulus measures in Japan and due to the decreased demand for the safe assets.

Current situation

The gold quotations decreased after the consolidation below the level of 1360. The price dropped by 1,50% and tested the support level 1330. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the negative territory which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is in the oversold zone which is also a sell signal.

The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 1 hours chart. The moving averages are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the pair manages to make a breakout of the mark 1330 the gold may fall to 1316. Alternatively, the pair will grow to 1360.



Brent

General overview

The Brent was steadily growing during the course of day. The decrease of the dollar together with the problems with the oil supplies from Africa and Middle East supported the futures.

Current situation

The Brent quotations sharply grew by 4,93% and broke through the levels 46.50 and 47.50. The price tested the resistance level of 48.50 by the end of the trades. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

MACD histogram is in the negative area. MACD grows that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is close to the overbought area that confirms buyers’ strength in the market.

According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 50-EMA, but failed to grow further. The Brent futures broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and tested the 200-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are turning upwards, the 200-EMA acts as a resistance.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 48.50 breakthrough upward the growth potential target is 49.50. If the price falls it will get to 47.50.



DAX

General overview

The European stock markets have been growing for 4 sessions in a line. The market was supported by the upcoming stimulus measures from the BoJ and BoE together with a decrease of the political tensions in the UK.

Current situation

The index DAX sharply increased and showed a growth by 1,33% on Tuesday. The price approached the important level of 10000. The resistance comes at 10000, the support exists at 9750.

The MACD histogram is in the positive area that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area that also supports buyers.

The price is above the 200 EMA in the 4 hours chart which acts as a support. The 50 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards.

Trading recommendations

Technically the index is overbought. We expect a correction towards 9760 where the price may get a support and grow back to 10000.



S&P 500

General overview

The USA Bonds Market was positive yesterday. The S&P 500 climbed to a new all-time high on Tuesday. The signs of the USA economy strength, the oil recovery and the cautious Fed position regarding the rate hike supported the index.

Current situation

The index S&P 500 continued to grow on Tuesday. The price tested the resistance level 2140 and then broke it through. Later the price tested the level 2150. The resistance comes in at 2150, the support lies at 2140.

MACD remained in the positive area that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area that also supports an upward trend.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The 50-EMA broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance 2150. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 2180. We also do not exclude the downward correction to 2120.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar is stable against the euro. Investors are waiting for the new signals regarding the USA economy.

Current situation

The euro recovered during the course of the day, the pair gained about 0.46%. The instrument remained in a short-term descending channel; the price approached its upper limit. The resistance is at 1.1130, the support comes in at 1.1050.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is in the neutral zone giving no signal.

The price broke the 50-EMA and 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The EUR/USD approached the 200-EMA which acts as a resistance for the pair.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to remain in a flat limited by 1.1130-1.1050 levels.



Pound

General overview

The news that Cameron officially resigned as the UK Prime Minister and Theresa May took over supported the pound. That news decreased the political uncertainty which followed the Brexit referendum. The pound is under pressure, the pair is waiting for the BoE decision regarding the rate.

Current situation

The GBP/USD decreased after a short-lived consolidation during the Asian session on Wednesday. The pair lost about 0.65% yesterday. The instrument remained in a descending channel, its upper limit is at the mark 1.33, its lower limit is at 1.2830. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram fell which indicates the buyers’ weakness. Indicator RSI rebounded from the overbought area that also supports sellers.

The 100-EMA is a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The price rebounded from the 100-EMA and returned to the 50-EMA which acts as a support.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3300, the next one is 1.3500.



Yen

General overview

The yen was unstable on Wednesday and fell against the dollar when the risk aversion returned to the market. Traders will keep a close eye on news flow surrounding the expected additional fiscal stimulus.

Current situation

The pair consolidated after the recent rally. The USD/JPY remained in a low side channel limited by 104.00 and 104.90. The resistance is at 104.50, the support comes in at 103.50.

MACD is in the positive area. The MACD remained at the same level which confirmed uncertainty in the market. RSI is in the overbought area. If its signal line decreases that will be a buy signal.

The pair is at the 200-EMA which acts as a support. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are below the price and are turning upwards.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will consolidate around the level of 104.50. We do not exclude the growth to 105.30.



USD/CAD

General overview

The Bank of Canada held the rates steady on Wednesday, although declining oil prices appeared to limit the CAD.

Current situation

The CAD/USD broke the 50-EMA and snapped the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The quotes rebounded from the 100-EMA which acts as a support. The resistance is at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI approached the oversold area that also supports the sellers’ strength.

The pair decreased and lost about 0.60% yesterday. The instrument is in a short-term ascending channel and the pair approached its lower limit.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2900 and 1.2800.



GOLD

General overview

Yesterday the gold grew as investors returned to the yellow metal as a safe heaven asset when the price dropped on Tuesday.

Current situation

The pair remained in a sideways. The gold futures consolidated after a sharp decrease the other day. The instrument remained in a narrow channel 1335 – 1346. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ weakness. Indicator RSI rebounded from the oversold area. Its signal line moved upward which confirms the strength of buyers.

The price broke the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart, it moved downwards and rebounded from the 100-EMA. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are moving horizontal, the 200-EMA is moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1330, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1300. If the price grows it will get to 1360.



Brent

General overview

The Brent decreased when the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the oversupply on world markets threatens the price recovery. The American Petroleum Institute (API) release showed an unexpected growth in the US stocks.

Current situation

The Brent was under pressure, the instrument lost about 4.50%. The price is in a descending channel, the oil futures decreased to the lower limit. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30.

MACD histogram is in the negative area which indicates the sellers’ strength. If MACD continues its decrease, bears’ positions will strengthen. RSI is close to the overbought area which confirms a downtrend.

The price rebounded from the 50-EMA downwards. The moving averages are turning downwards in 4 the hours chart.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 47.50, further on we expect a fall to 45.30.



NASDAQ

General overview

The Bonds Market in the USA snapped the intraday highs on the trades opening on Wednesday. However, the growth was short-lived and the price corrected downwards as investors took a pause after a 3 day rally. The Nasdaq moved into the positive territory this year.

Current situation

The price is in a consolidation after a one week rally. The index is above the support 4550. The index quotes are in the narrow range 4560 – 4585. The resistance is at 4600, the support is seen at 4550.

The MACD histogram is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI came out from the overbought area and moved downwards that also supports sellers.

The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which indicated the buyers’ strength.

Trading recommendations

We expect the index NASDAQ to continue a consolidation at the current levels. We do not exclude a slight decrease towards 4550 and 4500.



S&P 500

General overview

The weakened political tensions in Japan and the UK and the hopes that the Central Banks will launch the new stimulus program will support the market.

Current situation

The index is overbought and is in a consolidation phase. The new historical high is at 2140. The instrument is between the current support and the resistance. Yesterday the SP500 lost about 0.10%. The resistance comes in at 2140, the support lies at 2140.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area that also supports sellers.

The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which indicated the buyers’ strength.

Trading recommendations

The index S&P 500 may continue the consolidation at the current marks. The potential decrease target is the level of 2120.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened against the dollar amid the risk aversion. Traders became less cautious regarding the Brexit consequences as well. The USA published the Initial Jobless Claims that came out better than the forecast.

Current situation

The pair jumped to fresh weekly highs after the BoE’s decision to keep the rate unchanged and fell back on the news from the USA. The new daily high is at 1.1161. The resistance is seen at 1.1130, the support lies at 1.1050.

MACD was positive, its histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the neutral zone giving no signal.

The price broke the 200-EMA which rejected it downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA acts as a resistance for the pair now.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trades between the levels of 1.1130 and 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The pound grew by 200 points when the BoE decided to keep the rate unchanged. The regulator probably left the door open to launch the stimulus for August.

Current situation

The BoE’s decision triggered a sharp short-term rally that boosted the GBP/USD to a two-week high level. The new daily high is at around 1.3500. The resistance is at 1.3500, the support exists at 1.3300.

MACD is still positive. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. Indicator RSI rebounded from the overbought area that supports sellers.

The instrument remained below the bearish 100-EMA which acts as a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The price rebounded from the 100-EMA and remained close to it.

Trading recommendations

The pair shows a tendency to grow. In this potential scenario, the pair will grow to 1.3700. Alternatively, the price will drop to 1.2900.



Yen

General overview

The dollar grew above yen for the first time in three weeks. The yen weakened waiting for new fiscal stimulus from BoJ. The Japanese Bonds Market growth pushed the yen as well.

Current situation

Technically, a bullish tone persists in the 4 hours chart. The USD/JPY pair kept rallying on hopes that the Japanese regulator will launch a stimulus program soon. Yesterday the instrument set a new local high at 106.00. Now the pair is overbought and we expect a bounce backwards. The resistance is at 106.00, the support comes in at 105.30.

MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. If its signal line decreases that will be a sell signal.

The pair pushed away from the 200-EMA which acts as a support in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are below the price and are turning upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair may consolidate at the current levels. If the pair breaks the level of 105.30 downwards we expect a fall to 104.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

The AUD strengthened after the positive Consumer Inflation Expectation report. Later the pair suffered a short lived downward movement after negative labour market data.

Current situation

Technically, the instrument is in an ascending channel, close to its upper limit. In general, the pair was in a buy mode and remained at the week highs. The AUD was unable to break the level 0.7650 and traded in a narrow corridor between 0.7650 and 0.7600. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7600.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is in the neutral territory and gives no signal.

The instrument is above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 1 hour chart shows the similar picture, the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are parallel to each other and are growing. The 200-EMA is a support for the AUD/USD.

Trading recommendations

We expect markets to stay fairly neutral with short-term bounces downwards to 0.7600 and 0.7550.



GOLD

General overview

The gold is under pressure due to:
1. The return to risk assets
2. The USA economy recovery
3. The expectations that the USA will hike the rate this year

Current situation

The pair remained in an ascending channel, near its lower limit. The gold futures moved lower following the decision of the BoE to keep the rates unchanged. The new local low is at 1320. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ weakness. Indicator RSI rebounded from the oversold area. Its signal line moved upwards which confirms the strength of buyers.

The price broke the 50-EMA, but was stopped at the 100-EMA which rejected it upwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations

We are looking for the support 1316 break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1300.



Brent

General overview

The Brent is under pressure due to concerns that the market is oversupplied with oil.

Current situation

The Brent was stronger on Thursday, trading near the local high against the dollar. The price recovered after a sharp decrease the other day, the Brent gained about 1.90% during the course of the trades. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50.

MACD histogram is in the negative area which indicates the sellers’ strength. If MACD continues its decrease, bears’ positions will strengthen. RSI is close to the overbought area which confirms a downtrend.

The price rebounded from the 50-EMA downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning downwards in 4 the hours chart.

Trading recommendations

The resistance level of 47.50 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 46.50 return.



DAX

General overview

The German stock market grew due to the technology, the chemical industry and telecommunications sectors strengthening. Deutsche Bank was the leader of a growth (among the DAX 30 index), its shares rose by 3.62%.

Current situation

The index was strong, its bullish tone persisted yesterday. The DAX30 started a day with a gap upwards and set a fresh local high at 10100. The resistance is at 10175, the support is seen at 1000.

The MACD histogram is in the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI came out from the overbought area and moved downwards that also supports sellers.

The 50-EMA touched the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and 100-EMA direction is downwards which is a buy signal. The 200 EMA is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 10000 and 9750.



S&P 500

General overview

The Bonds Market in the USA grew yesterday. Investors are evaluating the BoE's decision and the USA statistics. The Standard & Poor's 500 has been showing a profit the 5th session in a line, the index renewed its historical highs.

Current situation

The index went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday. It grew during the Asian and the European sessions and moved away from all-time high at the American one. The market looks like it could pull back a little. The resistance comes in at 2165, the support lies at 2150.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought territory which is a buy signal for now.

The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which indicated the buyers’ strength.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the index S&P 500 will form the consolidation between the levels of 2165-2150.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.07.2016

Euro

General overview

This week the ECB will hold the meeting regarding its monetary policy which may become a driver for the single currency if Draghi makes unexpected statements.

Current situation

The EUR/USD unexpectedly dropped and lost about 0.74% on Friday. The overall picture is bearish now. The resistance is seen at 1.1050, the support lies at 1.1000.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI approached the oversold area.

The 4 hours chart shows that the price bounced off the 200-EMA. The pair left behind the 100-EMA and the 50-EMA which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair may recover to 1.1080 to resume its downward trajectory towards 1.0900.



Pound

General overview

The BoJ left its rates unchanged, however, the regulator left the door open for changes for August. This news preserved some risk appetite in the markets.

Current situation

The tone is still negative in the market. The pound fell from a two-week high on Friday when the U.S. data boosted the dollar across the market. The pound lost about 1.20% during the course of the day. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.

MACD indicator declined. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. Indicator RSI rebounded from the overbought area that supports sellers.

The instrument is locked in-between the bearish 100-EMA and the 50-EMA. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. A move below the current support 1.3100 would suggest a resumption of the bearish trend.



Yen

General overview

The yen kept falling and reached the three-week highs during Friday. The Japanese currency is under pressure after the Bonds market growth. If the situation does not change the Japanese regulator may implement new softening measures.

Current situation

We see no change in USD/JPY outlook. The growth from 98.97 is still seen as a correction and it seems to be over. The pair sharply decreased on Friday and lost about 0.47%. Sellers seem to have returned to the market. The resistance is at 105.30, the support comes in at 104.50.

MACD remained in the positive territory, however, its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area which is another sell signal.

The pair is coming back to the 200-EMA which acts as a support in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are still moving upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The price is expected to fall towards 103.50. Alternatively, the pair will resume its growth.



NZD/USD

General overview

The NZD decreased when RBNZ decided to provide an update on the economy on July 21. The kiwi is too strong and the regulator might cut the rate to hold its growth.

Current situation

Technically, the instrument left the upward channel. The NZD decreased and left the level 0.7150 behind. The resistance is at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD is in the negative area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strength. RSI is close to the oversold territory which is a sell signal.

The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and approached the 200-EMA which is its last hope to resume a growth.

Trading recommendations

We expect markets to stay bearish. In the scenario where the sellers still have a ball the pair will decrease to 0.7050 - 0.7000.



GOLD

General overview

The gold resumed its decrease. The political uncertainty, the bank crisis in Italy and the low rates in the leading economies are the main drivers for this decrease.

Current situation

The pair remained close to the ascending channel lower limit. The gold futures spent the day at the level 1330. The resistance is seen at 1360, the support stands at 1330.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ weakness. Indicator RSI rebounded from the oversold area. Its signal line moved upwards which confirms the growing strength of buyers.

The price broke the 50-EMA, but was stopped at the 100-EMA which rejected it upwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations

We are looking for the support 1316 break and then continuation of a fall with a further stop at 1300.



Brent

General overview

The Brent is getting cheaper due to supply and demand aspects. At the same time economical uncertainty after the Brexit still supports a demand for the safe assets.

Current situation

The Brent was active on Friday, the oil futures gained about 1.30%. The price recovered and was able to return some of its early losses. However, the market still bearish and we do not believe in a strong growth in the near term. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is close to the overbought area.

The price broke the 50-EMA, but was not able to move higher the 100-EMA. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in 4 the hours chart.

Trading recommendations

The resistance level of 48.50 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 46.50 return.



NASDAQ

General overview

The Bonds Market in the US remained optimistic due to the positive macroeconomic data in the US.

Current situation

The index was neutral on Friday. The Nasdaq remained in a narrow side channel. The resistance is at 4600, the support is seen at 4550.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI left the overbought area and moved downwards that also supports sellers.

The price broke the 50-EMA and touched the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs direction is upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

We expect the price to remain at the current levels and will fluctuate between 4600 and 4550.



S&P 500

Current situation

The index left all-time high and moved below 2150. As we expected the market pulled back a little. The index lost about 0.53% on Friday. The resistance comes in at 2150, the support lies at 2140.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI left the overbought territory.

The 50-EMA touched the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

Technically, the main trend is upwards, however, sellers managed to lead the price from 2160 to 2140. We believe that is a correctional decrease which happened due to the profit-taking. The price may decrease to 2120 (where the 50-EMA lies) to bounce from it upwards.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.07.2016

Euro

General overview

There is still a degree of mild optimism that the Fed will hike the rate this year, which supported the dollar. Investors evaluate the chance of the rate hike by 42%.

Current situation

A daily chart shows that the pair is in the range between the marks 1.1000 and 1.1170. The euro remained within the middle-term descending channel in the 4 hours chart. The instrument found a very solid support around 1.1000 (a strong psychological level). The resistance is seen at 1.1130, the support lies at 1.1050.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI bounced from the oversold area, its signal line grew that indicates buyers’ growing strength.

The price is close to the 50-EMA which acts as a resistance. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

Shall the pair break the support 1.1000 the instrument EUR/USD will decrease to 1.0900. A break above 1.1130 could lead to a growth towards 1.1200.



Pound

General overview

The pound grew to the session high after Martin Weale’s speech (BoE representative). According to him, there is no rush to cut the interest rate in August.

Current situation

In general, we do not see any change in GBP/USD's outlook, its downtrend is still in progress. The pair attempted to recover some of its previous week losses. However, the growing impulse faded at around 1.3300. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.

MACD remained neutral yesterday. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. Indicator RSI is in the neutral territory.

The instrument is sandwiched between the 100 and the 50 EMAs. The 200-EMA direction is downwards, the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are horizontal.

Trading recommendations

We still remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. If price makes another attempt to break the level 1.3100 the pound may fall to 1.2700.



Yen

General overview

The yen weakened on Monday when Turkish government returned its control over the country after a failed coup. Investors initially ran to the yen as a safe asset on the news about a coup attempt.

Current situation

USD/JPY remained in a trading range around 106.00 level. Our technical outlook is still short-term bullish. The resistance is at 106.00, the support comes in at 105.30.

MACD remained in the positive territory, however, its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI returned to the overbought area which is a buy signal.

The 50-EMA broke the 100-EMA upwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are still moving upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above 106.00. Once we break above the 106.00 level, we think that the 107.00 level will be next. Conversely, the price may fall back to 103.50.



USD/CAD

General overview

There is a moderate sentiment in the market today. The oil quotes are the main guideline for the pair. The growth of Brent will support sellers in the USA/CAD.

Current situation

We believe the pair is back to a long-term downwards trend, however, it found quite a lot of support around 1.2900. Yesterday the pair grew and was able to gain about 0.15%. The resistance is at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the negative area. Its histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. Indicator RSI is in the neutral territory.

The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The 200-EMA acts as a support for the pair. The EMAs direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.3000 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2900.



GOLD

General overview

The gold quotes remained under pressure close to the 2-week lows when the markets recovered after the failure of the military coup in Turkey.

Current situation

The current decrease is looking corrective with the more positive sentiment for the market. The instrument found a very solid support around 1330. The resistance is seen at 1330, the support stands at 1316.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. Indicator RSI is close to the oversold area.

The price is locked in-between the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1316 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1300.



Brent

General overview

The Brent went back and forth on Monday fluctuating in a narrow range amid drilling activity growth in the USA. Moreover, investors are digesting the news regarding a failed coup in Turkey.

Current situation

The overall outlook remains bearish. The Brent is in a descending channel, hovering at the support 46.50. The Brent showed negative dynamic yesterday when the instrument dropped back below 47.50. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is in the neutral territory.

The price broke the 50-EMA downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

If the instrument grows its next stop could well be at 47.50 region. If the price breaks above this region, then this could lead to renewed buying momentum. Alternatively, a break below the current support 46.50 risks a decline towards 45.30.



DAX

General overview

European shares opened higher on Monday on the news that SoftBank will acquire ARM Holdings (a smartphone chip designer).

Current situation

The index was neutral on Monday. The DAX remained in a narrow side channel which is limited by the marks 10000 and 10090. The index seems to have found a solid support at the current level 10000. The resistance is at 10175, the support is seen at 10000.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area which is a buy signal.

The price is at the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trades between the levels of 10175 and 10000.



S&P 500

The Bonds Market strengthened in the USA on Monday. S&P500 traded near intraday highs as the financial reports of the leading USA companies kept showing positive data.

Current situation

The S&P500 remained in a narrow side channel which is limited by the marks 2160 and 2150. The resistance is at 2165, the support is seen at 2150.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought territory.

The price broke the 50-EMA, but failed to break the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the price will remain in the side channel 2165-2150.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.07.2016

Euro

General overview

Economic Sentiment in Germany has fallen to its lowest level for 4 years. The uncertainty regarding the further world economy prospects after the Brexit was the main reason which influenced the sentiment. This news weighed on the euro. Moreover, Housing Starts rose more than expected in the USA which supported the dollar.

Current situation

The EUR/USD closed bearish yesterday. Technically, the pair is in a descending channel. The price formed a new lower low at 1.1000 (the strong psychological support). The instrument lost about 0.53% during the course of the trades. The resistance is seen at 1.1050, the support lies at 1.1000.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI returned to the oversold area, its signal line decreased that also indicates sellers’ strength.

The price moved from the 50-EMA which still acts as a resistance. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

We preserve a short-term bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair. If the price breaks the support 1.1000 the instrument will advance towards 1.0900.



Pound

General overview

The pound decreased on Tuesday despite the positive inflation releases in the country.

Current situation

The pound continued to show weakness on Tuesday. Technically, the pair remained in a neutral bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.

MACD is in the negative area. The indictor decreased which indicates sellers’ growing strength.
Indicator RSI approached the oversold territory which is a sell signal.

The price bounced from the 100-EMA, broke the 50-EMA and advanced from it in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We still remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. If the price makes another attempt to break the level 1.3100 the pound may fall to 1.2700.



Yen

General overview

The dollar became cheaper against the yen as investors began profit raking after the recent rally.

Current situation

The pair traded at fresh 4-week highs near the mark 106.50 on Tuesday. Out technical outlook is bullish. The resistance is at 107.00, the support comes in at 106.00.

MACD remained in the positive territory, however, its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is close to the overbought area which is a buy signal.

The price remained above the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are still moving upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

A solid 106.00 break will signal about a move towards 107.00. Conversely, the USD/JPY may fall back to 104.50.



AUD

General overview

The AUD fell on the news that the regulator may continue its softening policy. The Australian regulator left the door open for the further rate change for August.

Current situation

The Aussie traded weaker on Tuesday after minutes from the RBA. The pair left the ascending channel. The instrument lost about 1.20% during the course of the day. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7500.

MACD is in the negative area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strengthening. Indicator RSI is close to the oversold area.

The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument broke the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 200-EMA stopped its further decrease, the 200-EMA acts as a support for the pair. The 200-EMA direction is horizontal, the 50 and 100 EMAs are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations

The price may bounce from the level 0.7500 (the 200-EMA) towards the mark 0.7550 (the 50-EMA). If the price breaks the level 0.7550 the instrument may return to the growth. Otherwise, the AUD/USD will bounce from the level 0.7550 downwards.



GOLD

General overview

The gold quotes remained unchanged. Investors evaluated chances for the further policy softening by the leading economies.

Current situation

The instrument found a very solid support around 1330 and traded there during the day. The resistance is seen at 1360, the support stands at 1330.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. Indicator RSI is close to the oversold area.

The price is sandwiched between the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral.

Trading recommendations

The side movement will be continued. The price will remain around the level of 1330.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices were under pressure as the investors’ worries as crude oil and refined products global over-supply resurfaced.

Current situation

The crude oil Brent remained under pressure. The instrument is in a descending channel, the price traded at its lower limit at 46.50. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50.

MACD indicator is in the negative area. If the histogram remains in the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is in the neutral territory.

The price remained under the 50-EMA which acts as a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

The oil is under pressure. We expect the trades between the levels 47.50 and 46.50.



Nasdaq

General overview

The USA Bonds market got under pressure after weak earnings reports from Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX).

Current situation

The index decreased on Tuesday. The Nasdaq lost about 0.42% during the course of the trades. Our outlook is still bullish. The resistance is at 4600, the support is seen at 4550.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area which is a buy signal.

The price is at the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The instrument is in-between the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA. The 100-EMA broke upwards the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 4600, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 4650. If the price falls it will get to 4550.



S&P 500

The USA Bonds market decreased when UMF lowered its forecasts regarding the global economy growth. The global markets outlook is uncertain after the Brexit.

Current situation

The S&P500 remained in a narrow side channel which is limited by the marks 2160 and 2150. The price went back and forth in the channel and decreased to its lower limit by the end of the trades. The resistance is at 2165, the support is seen at 2150.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought territory.

The price broke 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance; the 100-EMA is a support. The 100-EMA broke upwards the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

We believe the price will remain sandwiched between the levels 2165 and 2150.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The main drivers for the dollar were: positive Building Permits and Housing Starts in the USA and Dennis P. Lockhart’s speech (the Fed representative). According to Dennis P. Lockhart the Brexit did not damage much the USA economy. Moreover, the chances that the USA regulator will hike the rate this year keep growing.

Current situation

The EUR/USD remained under pressure. The euro struggled to regain the 1.1000 level but failed. All its attempts to grow were limited by the mark 1.1030. The instrument remained in the descending channel, at its lower limit. The resistance is seen at 1.1050, the support lies at 1.1000.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI returned to the oversold area, its signal line decreased that also indicates sellers’ strength.

The price is below the bearish 50-EMA which still acts as a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair stopped at the strong support at 1.1000. Should the EUR/USD break the level downwards the pair will decrease to 1.0900.



Pound

General overview

The strong UK employment supported the pound. Unemployment Rate fell, at the same time Claimant Count Change grew.

Current situation

Technically, the pair remained under pressure. The GBP/USD pair bounced form a daily low of 1.3100, supported by a strong UK unemployment report. The instrument grew by 0.45% during the course of the day. The local high is at 1.3226 now. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.

MACD is in the negative area. The indictor grew which indicates sellers’ positions weakening.
RSI bounced from the oversold territory which is a buy signal.

The price grew and stopped at the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are horizontal, the 200-EMA direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair looks to find a solid support at the current level 1.3100. If the pair breaks the level downwards, the decrease will be continued to 1.2900. Otherwise, we will see a growth towards 1.3300.



Yen

General overview

The yen was able to grow against the other majors. Investors used the yen as a safe asset when Tokyo bonds market weakened after a 6 day rally.

Current situation

Even though the pair grew yesterday its rally seems to run out of steam as the USD/JPY approached a strong resistance at 107.00. The instrument set fresh 4-week highs at the mark 106.85. The resistance is at 107.00, the support comes in at 106.00.

MACD remained in the positive territory, its histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strength. RSI is close to the overbought area which is a buy signal.

The price remained above the bullish 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are still moving upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair USD/JPY approached 107.00. A cut through here will aim it at the 108.00 level. Conversely, the pair may fall back to 104.50.



NZD/USD

General overview

The NZD decreased on the news that the RBNZ will soften its monetary policy next month.

Current situation

The kiwi traded weaker on Wednesday. The pair remained in the descending channel. The kiwi found a support at the level 0.7020. The resistance is at 0.7050, the support comes in at 0.6950.

MACD is in the negative area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strengthening. Indicator RSI is close to the oversold area which is also a sell signal.

The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument is just below the 200-EMA. The 50-EMA broke the 100-EMA downwards which is a sell signal. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving downwards, the 200-EMA is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

If the NZD/USD does make a breakout at that level 0.7020 the instrument may decrease to 0.6950. The buyers’ nearest target remains at 0.7100.


GOLD

General overview

The gold futures decreased as the strong dollar undermined the attractiveness of the yellow metal.

Current situation

The gold futures were able to break the level 1330 and decreased towards the next support at 1316. The new local low is at the mark 1312. The pair lost about 1,10% during the course of the trades. The resistance is seen at 1330, the support stands at 1316.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strength. Indicator RSI is close to the oversold area which is a sell signal.

The price broke downwards the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. Now the price is in-between the 100-EMA and the 200-EMA. The 50-EMA is moving downwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs are horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The pair left behind another support on its way down. The nearest sellers’ target remains at the level 1309. The price may rebound from the level 1308 (the 200 EMA) and may return to the growth.



Brent

General overview

The Brent got support from the Weekly Crude Oil Stock report in the USA. The USA Oil Stocks have been decreasing the nine week in a line.

Current situation

The crude oil Brent remained in the descending channel, the price approached its upper limit. The Brent has been in a downtrend channel since mid-June. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50.

MACD indicator is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is in the neutral territory.

The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. However, the price did not hold there and drop below of it. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

We preserve a bearish outlook for the Brent. We expect the trades between the levels 47.50 and 46.50.



Dax

General overview

The Germany Bonds Market strengthened on Wednesday. The software, basic resources and technology sectors grew most of all. The leaders of growth among DAX 30 were the shares of Volkswagen which rose by 6.01%.

Current situation

The index closed bullish on Wednesday. DAX was able to gain about 1,62%. The session high is marked at 10135. The price approached the level it was not able to break two days ago. The resistance is at 10175, the support is seen at 1000.

MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The indicator gives a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area which is a buy signal.

The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

The mark 10135 seems to be a solid resistance for the index. We assume it will bounce downwards back to 1000. Alternatively, the quotes will grow to 10175.



S&P 500

General overview

The USA Bonds market traded higher on Wednesday. In the lack of any statistics and other drivers the positive corporate earnings supported S&P500.

Current situation

The S&P500 left its side channel and was able to set a daily high at 2169. The resistance is at 2180, the support is seen at 2165.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strength. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought territory which is also a buy signal.

The 100-EMA rejected the price upwards in the 1 hour chart. The SP500 broke the 50-EMA and advanced north from the moving averages. The moving averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

We believe the price will grow to 2180 after a rebound to 2150.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The ECB left its interest rates unchanged. According to Mario Draghi he expects the Eurozone economy recover in a moderate pace. Mario Draghi stressed that Brexit had a little effect to the inflation outlook in the Eurozone. The USA published the positive Initial Jobless Claims report.

Current situation

The EUR/USD remained under pressure yesterday. The ECB’s news triggered a sharp short-term rally that boosted the euro to 1.1060. However, the rally faded and sellers returned to the market. The EUR/USD closed the day bearish. The resistance is seen at 1.1050, the support lies at 1.1000.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI returned to the oversold area, its signal line decreased that also indicates sellers’ strength.

The price is below the bearish 50-EMA which still acts as a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is threatening to break below the psychological support at 1.1000 now. A cut through here will aim it at the 1.0950 level.



Pound

General overview

The recent rally in the pair GBP/USD was supported by the positive unemployment data. However, yesterday’s retail sales report undermined the overall positive outlook. Today we expect a number of PMI releases.

Current situation

The disappointing UK retail sales data weighed the pound which fell from the local highs. The pair settled above the 1.3100 level by the end of the trades. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is in the neutral territory.

The instrument remains in-between the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair may resume its downtrend if it breaks the mark 1.3100. Alternatively, the pair GBP/USD will rally towards 1.3350.



Yen

General overview

The yen fell on the news that the Shinzō Abe may increase the quantity of the fiscal stimulus measures.

Current situation

The pair dipped into a negative territory. The USD/JPY left behind the levels 107.00 and 106.00 and approached 105.30. The pair lost about 0.98% during the course of the day. The resistance is at 106.00, the support comes in at 105.30.

MACD remained in the positive territory. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought area which is a sell signal.

The instrument broke the 50-EMA and 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 105.30. A break below the level would open the way to 104.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

Reserve Bank of Australia left its rate unchanged this week. The RBA left the door open for the rate change for August.

Current situation

The instrument went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday. The AUD has found a descent resistance around 0.7500. All its attempts to grow were rejected by the level. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. Indicator RSI is close to the oversold area which is a sell signal.

The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument is just below the 100-EMA. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are turning down which is a sell signal. The 200-EMA is neutral.

Trading recommendations

If the pair manages to make a breakout of 0.7500 upwards the AUD/USD may hit 0.7550 -0.7600 area. To trigger additional downward momentum the AUD needs to break 0.7465 (the 200-EMA).



GOLD

General overview

The gold became cheaper on the back of the dollar strengthening. The real estate market supported the dollar.

Current situation

The instrument finished the day bullish. The pair was able to recover and gained about 0.82% by the end of the trades. The gold stopped at the current resistance which is seen at 1330, the support stands at 1316.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. Indicator RSI bounced from the oversold area.

The price broke upwards the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. Now the price is above the 50-EMA which is heading to penetrate the 100-EMA downwards.

Trading recommendations

The XAU/USD rebounded from the level 1308 (the 200 EMA) and grew to the current resistance at 1330. A cut through here will turn our attention to the 1360 level.



Brent

General overview

The oil inventory decreased in the USA which actually was welcome news for the price. Today we expect Oil Rig Count report which can boost the price.

Current situation

Technically, a bearish tone persists. The crude oil remained in the descending channel, the price returned to its lower limit. The Brent futures dipped from 47.50 to 46.50. The instrument lost about 1.50% during the course of the trades. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50.

MACD indicator is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is in the neutral territory.

The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. However, the price did not hold there and drop below of it. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

The tone is still negative in the market. The level 46.50 limits all sellers attempts to go further. A break below this mark risks a decline towards the support at 45.30



NASDAQ

Current situation

The instrument was in a sell mode yesterday. The index decreased from the all-time highs to the mark 4637. The resistance is at 4650, the support is seen at 4600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area which is a sell signal.

The price snapped the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

The NASDAQ is overbought. The most likely scenario involves a move towards 4600.



S&P 500

Current situation

Technically, a bullish tone persists in the market, however, the index had a negative day on Thursdays. The S&P500 left its daily high at 2169 and fell by 0.42%. The resistance is at 2165, the support is seen at 2150.

MACD is in the positive territory. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area which is a sell signal.

The price is approaching the bullish 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is upwards. The SP500 broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart and is approaching the 200-EMA.


Trading recommendations

We still believe in a growth. The price is overbought and we expect a short-term pull back. Now we are waiting for a bullish signal to buy the S&P500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The USA Manufacturing PMI was the main point of focus last Friday. The positive release supported the dollar.

Current situation

The tone is still negative in the market. The EUR/USD had a sharp drop below the support level of 1.1000. The new local low is at 1.0955. The resistance is seen at 1.1000, the support lies at 1.0900.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI returned to the oversold area, its signal line decreased that also indicates sellers’ strength.

The price bounced downwards from the bearish 50-EMA which still acts as a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

The instrument almost reached the 200-EMA which rejected it downwards in the 1 hour chart. The pair broke the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA and moved downwards from them.

Trading recommendations

The bearish views are getting more popular now. The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.0900.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell on the back of weak economical releases which added concerns over the British economy outlook after the Brexit.

Current situation

The GBP/USD faced further downside pressure. According to the 4 hours chart the cable traded sideways. The sellers managed to lead the price from 1.3300 to 1.3100. The daily and weekly technical studies remain bearish. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.

MACD indicator decreased. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is approaching the oversold territory which is a sell signal.

The instrument fell below the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs direction is downwards, the 50-EMA is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.3100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.2900.



Yen

General overview

The yen weakened after Haruhiko Kuroda's speech (the BoJ governor). Haruhiko Kuroda denied speculations that Japan may be preparing "helicopter money" for economic stimulus.

Current situation

The short-term picture is quite mixed. The USD/JPY traded in a flat and went back and forth within a range 105.50 – 106.35. The resistance is at 107.00, the support comes in at 106.00.

MACD remained in the positive territory. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is in the neutral territory.

The instrument snapped the 100-EMA and bounced upwards above the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the consolidation around the level of 106.00.



USD/CAD

General overview

The Canadian economical growth will be supported by the government fiscal stimulus program. The program shall support the Canadian dollar. However, the low oil prices may limit its growth.

Current situation

The pair closed bullish on Friday. The USA dollar continued moving higher on the back of the positive USA statistics. The instrument was able to set a new local high at 1.3185. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD is in the positive area. MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. Oscillator RSI is close to the overbought area which is a buy signal.

The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument is growing above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The pair bounced upwards from the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

From a technical perspective we see a growth continuation. As long as market holding above 1.3100 the uptrend pressure will continue toward 1.3200.



GOLD

General overview

The gold became cheapen last Friday. The metal is under pressure due to the possible rate hike in the USA.

Current situation

The instrument finished the day bearish. Its rally was stopped at the level 1330 which rejected the price downwards. The price remained in a sideway channel. The resistance is seen at 1330, the support stands at 1316.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. Indicator RSI is in the neutral area.

The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. Now the price is below the 100-EMA. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving downwards, the 200-EMA is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The price may continue the side trades between the levels 1330 and 1316. Alternatively, an uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above 1330.



Brent

General overview

The Brent is under pressure as investors are concerned over the existing oil oversupply in the world markets.

Current situation

Technically, the tone is still negative in the market. The Brent futures continued to grind lower and touched 45.30. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30.

MACD indicator is in the negative area. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strengthening. RSI approached the undervalued area which is a sell signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

The tone is still negative in the market. To trigger additional downward momentum towards 44.00 the price needs to break the current support. A break above 46.50 would open the way to 47.50.



DAX

General overview

The Germany Bonds market showed mix dynamics last Friday. The shares of Vonovia SE were the leaders among the DAX30 components. Its shares gained 1.14%.

Current situation

The index closed bullish on Friday. The instrument spent the last day of the week below 10175. All its attempts to grow further were limited by the level. The resistance is at 10175, the support exists at 10000.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is close to the overbought area which is a buy signal for now.

The bullish 50-EMA broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

We believe the index will trade sideways on Monday. The instrument might move back and forth in a narrow side range between 10080 and 10175.



S&P 500

General overview

The S&P 500 index is strong due to the positive corporative earnings reports. However, Intel and GE negative reports worsened its positive dynamics.

Current situation

The index refreshed the all-time high at 2170. The instrument closed the Friday in a green territory. The overall tone is bullish. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165.

MACD is in the positive territory. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is close to the overvalued territory which is a buy signal.

The price bounced from the bullish 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

Technically, a bullish tone persists in the market. All our eyes are on the level 2170. If the index SP500 manages to break it the further uptrend will be continued to 2180.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman