"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro is under pressure against the dollar due to fears that the Brexit will worsen the prospects for the EU and the euro area economy.

Current situation

The pair showed a mixed dynamics yesterday. The euro made several attempts to recover, still the sellers did not let it to grow. The instrument remained at the same level, near the mark 1.1000. The resistance is at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area. If the indicator remains in there that will be a sell signal. RSI is close to the undervalued area. If RSI enters the area, that will be a sell signal. In the scenario where the oscillator grows we will get a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD is still under pressure. We believe it will fall further and will reach the local low at 1.0900. The pair may grow only to fall from the higher levels.



Pound

General overview

The pound got under pressure again when George Osborne (the Finance Minister) said that the results of the referendum will prolong the further volatility in the financial markets. According to George Osborne the economy of the country is ready to leave the EU and it will successfully cope with its consequences.

Current situation

The pair decreased and was able to set new historical low at 1.3118. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.
MACD is in the negative area and its histogram decreased that is a sell signal. If MACD remains at the same levels the pair will move downwards. RSI fell to the oversold level of 30. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the undervalued area. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

We presume that the pair has no chances to recover soon. The Brexit will pressure the pair further. We do not exclude some pull backs that we expect to be weak and short-lived. The sellers’ next target is 1.3100 and 1.3000. The GBP/USD may grow towards 1.3700.



Yen

General overview

After the British referendum Shinzo Abe (the Japanese Prime Minister ) requested from Taro Aso (the Finance Minister) to monitor the currency market and to take action if necessary.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure. The market seems fairly balanced; the instrument almost did not move and remained at the same place. The resistance is at 102.50, the support exists at 101.40.
MACD is in the negative area. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the pair will decrease. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator decreases or remains at the current levels that will be a sell signal. If RSI growth, that will be a buy signal for us. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

There are no major events on the schedule that could significantly move the pair. We expect markets to stay fairly neutral and the USD/JPY probably will remain in the same region between 101.40 and 102.50.



NZD

General overview

The markets ignored the growth of trade surplus in New Zealand in May. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to strengthen after the referendum in Britain.

Current situation

The trend is objectively bearish and the instrument is undervalued. The NZD/USD was falling the whole Monday and reached the local low that was set last Friday. The resistance exists at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.
MACD is in the negative area. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the pair will decrease. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator decreases or remains at the current levels that will be a sell signal. If RSI growth, that will be a buy signal for us. The NZD broke 50 and 100 day moving averages and is approaching 200-day moving average. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are turning down, the 200-SMA is still moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

The sellers’ next target is the mark 0.6950. If NZD grows it will grow to 0.7050.



GOLD

General overview

The gold again approached the two-year highs. The quotes grew after the UK unexpected decision to leave the UK. The metal is in demand as the news made investors seek for safe assets.

Current situation

The gold remained in the growing channel. As usual Monday was poor with news and there were no drivers that could move the pair. The gold futures showed a mixed dynamics still all trades were low volatile and the pair remained below 1330 dollars per ounce. The resistance is at 1330, the support is at 1300.
MACD is in the positive area. We receive the buy signal from the indicator. If the histogram remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI approached the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1330 and further to 1360 dollars per ounce. We do not exclude a correction to 1270.



Brent

General overview

The crude oil futures marked the first day of the new week with a decline. However, some analysts believe that Brexit impact on the global fuel demand is very limited.

Current situation

The oil quotations tried to recover yesterday still buyers met the sellers’ resistance at 48.90. That mark became a pivot point and the price fell. The resistance is at 47.50, the support is at 46.50.
MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall RSI bounce upwards and the Brent futures will recover. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are above the price. The Moving Averages are turning down.

Trading recommendations

In this potential scenario, the next stop for the Brent could well be around 46.50. If price breaks above 48.50 and consolidates above this level, then this could lead to renewed buying momentum, possibly towards 50.00 – 50.50 region.



DAX

General overview

The European stock indices continued to fall. The decline was caused by the uncertainty that came after the London decision to leave the EU.

Current situation

The DAX30 was bearish on Monday. However we believe that the current drop should be considered corrective. The Eurozone Bonds Market will recover from the current shock and will grow. The index reached a strong technical level 9265. DAX is fairly oversold and it may grow soon. The resistance comes at 9400, the support exists at 9250.
MACD is in the negative area; its histogram decreased. If the histogram remains in the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area. If the oscillator remains in the area, that will be a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards and that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

If the negative sentiment preserves the index will decrease to 9050.



S&P 500

General overview

The US stock indices were under pressure due to the financial sector shares decrease. The S&P decreased as the markets do not see future prospects of London as a European financial center.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bearish. The index set a new local low at 1985. The resistance comes in at 2000, the support lies at 1985.
MACD is in the negative area. The indicator decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it bounce upwards and the index will recover. The 50-SMA broke the 200-day moving average downwards. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We assume the downward movement will be continued as the bearish sentiment prevails. The marks 1985 and 1970 are the sellers’ targets.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro remained under pressure as uncertainty regarding the Brexit continued to cloud the prospects of the whole EU. Yesterday Mario Draghi (the ECB President) gave his speech. There were not anything specific about the current monetary policy. However, Mario Draghi noted that the Central Banks should better coordinate the monetary policies of their countries to cope with the deflationary pressure.

Current situation

The course of the pair tried to stabilize yesterday. The instrument grew and set a new local high at 1.1111. Technically, the EUR/USD remained in a narrow downward trending channel. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram grew yesterday. The indicator will give sell signals until it leaves the negative area. RSI is close to the undervalued area. If RSI enters the area, that will be a sell signal. In the scenario where the oscillator grows we will get a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards, that is a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a strong resistance for the euro.

Trading recommendations

The pair may continue its growth. If the EUR/USD consolidates over 1.1130 the growth maybe continued to 1.1200. The nearest sellers’ targets are the support levels 1.1000 and 1.0900.



Pound

General overview

Yesterday the pound rose against the US dollar for the first time after the referendum, as investors’ confidence began growing.

Current situation

The pound tried to recover yesterday. However, its growth was weak and the pair did not succeed much with it. The pound was able to grow to 1.3425. The resistance is at 1.3500, the support comes in at 1.3300.

MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew that weakened the sell signal. If MACD decreases the pair will move downwards. RSI remained close to the oversold level. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the area. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD may still slightly recover. If it grows the pair will aim to close the gap at 1.3700. A downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below the support level 1.3300, which will be followed by moving down to the support levels 1.3100 and 1.3000.



Yen

General overview

Even though the USD/JPY remained under pressure it recovered yesterday. The demand for the safe assets decreased that let to the USD/JPY growth. At the same time, the stronger the pair falls, the higher is probability that the BoJ will interfere. The regulator has already promised in June to use an intervention in case of Brexit.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure. However the pair formed a consolidation yesterday. The USD recovered and reached the mark 102.80. The resistance is at 103.50, the support stands at 102.50.

The indicators moved away from extremum. MACD remained in the negative area, still its histogram grew, that weakened the sell signal. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the pair will decrease further. RSI is in the neutral area. If the oscillator decreases that will be a sell signal. If RSI growth, that will be a buy signal for us. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the instrument.

Trading recommendations

If the USD/JPY does not get new drivers it will remain between 103.50- 101.40.



AUD

General overview

On Tuesday, the dollar fell against other major currencies when the fears regarding British exit from the European Union began weakening and investors returned to the risky assets, such as the AUD/USD.

Current situation

The pair made an attempt to recover and reached the level 0.7400. The mark 0.74000 became the pivot point where the price returned to a decrease. The resistance exists at 0.7400, the support lies at 0.7270.

MACD is in the negative area, its histogram dropped. If the indicator decreases again the pair will fall further. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator moves south that will be a sell signal. The 50- moving average was the resistance that did not let the pair to grow. The pair bounced below 50, 100 and 200 moving averages which are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. The nearest target remained the support level 0.7270. In the scenario where the buyers take control over the market the instrument will grow to 0.7400 – 0.7500.



GOLD

General overview

Yesterday the gold futures fell the first time in three sessions as investors began taking profits after the last week rally.

Current situation

The gold futures were in the red zone yesterday. The price decreased and lost about 0.48%. The market is still unstable after the Brexit referendum and the gold is still in demand that supported the metal. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1300.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram decreased. We receive the sell signal from the indicator. If the histogram keeps decreasing, the drop of the pair will be continued. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

We are still bullish longer-term for the gold. If XAU/USD does make a breakout at that level 1330 the pair will grow to 1360. A downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below the support level 1300.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices strengthened after falling to a seven-week low after the decision of London to leave the EU. The news that the Norway oil company stands before a strike supported the oil quotes yesterday.

Current situation

The oil quotations continued its recovery on Tuesday. The price met the resistance at 48.50 where the futures decreased back to the mark of 47.50. However buyers did not despair and started a new growth attack. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

MACD is in the negative area, its histogram moved north, that is a buy signal. RSI left the oversold area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are above the price. The 200-day moving average is moving upwards, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages direction is down.

Trading recommendations

The Brent is in a green zone. An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above 49.50. In the alternative scenario the pair drops below 47.50 to the support at 46.50.



Nasdaq

General overview

The Bonds Market of the USA recovered after a sharp decline due to the referendum in the UK. Nasdaq Composite rose by 2.05% during Tuesday. However uncertainty regarding the future of Great Britain held investors from active trades.

Current situation

The index recovered and succeeded with it having gained more than 2%. The new local high is at 4279. The resistance comes at 4300, the support exists at 4250.

The indicators recommend long positions. MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew on Tuesday. If the histogram keeps growing we will get a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area. If the oscillator grows, that will be another buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards and that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

If Nasdaq keeps recovering it will grow to the resistance at 4300. If the price makes another attempt to drop we will see its decrease back to 4200.



S&P 500

General overview

The USA stock markets recovered when investors realized that the Brexit theme is behind and the Fed is now unlikely to hike the rates this year. On Tuesday the Bonds Market showed a moderate recovery after the sharp fall of the previous two sessions.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bearish; the index is in a descending channel. The resistance comes in at 2025, the support lies at 2012.

MACD is in the negative area, its histogram moved north, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced off the oversold level. If RSI grows that will be a buy signal. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the index keeps growing the level 2025 will become its next target.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro did not change its positions after Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone. At the same time the ECB will not rush with the further monetary policy easing. The regulator wants to see any proof that the Eurozone economy slows down before it takes any action.

Current situation

The euro continued climbing upwards step by step. The instrument remained in a downside channel on the 4 hour chart; the euro grew to its upper boundary. The pair was able to recover by 0.47% and set a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram grew. The indicator will give buy signals while its histogram grows. RSI is in the neutral area; its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards, that is a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a strong resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD is trying to return into the upward channel on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The pair may continue its growth if the euro breaks the level of 1.1130 where the 200-SMA lies. Once we break above the 1.1130 mark, we think that the 1.1200 level will be next.



Pound

General overview

On Wednesday, the pound recovered as the market sentiment continued to stabilize after a shocking decision of London to leave the European Union. Meanwhile, Stephen Crabb (the leader of the Conservative Party and a candidate for Prime Minister) excluded the possibility of another referendum regarding the Brexit.

Current situation

The pound actively recovered yesterday and was able to gain about 1.12% during the day. The pair is trying to close the gap it opened this week with. The resistance is at 1.3500, the support comes in at 1.3300.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram grew. The indicator will give buy signals while its histogram grows. RSI is in the neutral area; its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

If the pound grows it will advance to 1.3700 to close the gap. Only a move below the strong support at 1.3300 can strengthen sellers’ positions.



Yen

General overview

The agile recovery of the yen faded out when the demand for the safe assets dimmed. Earlier, the Standard Chartered Bank sharply lowered its forecast for the pair at the end of the third quarter. The Bank noted that the BoJ and the Ministry of Finance can expand their stimulus measures to support the country economy after the Brexit.

Current situation

The dollar tried to break through 102.50 during the day after rolling back earlier at the Asian session. The pair reached the same level where it stopped the day before – 102.80. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The indicators MACD and RSI stabilized. Even though MACD remained in the negative area its histogram grew, giving us a buy signal. If the indicator keeps heading north the growth of the pair will be continued. RSI is in the neutral area. The indicator bounced off the oversold area, that is a buy signal. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the instrument. The pair is oversold on the daily chart and is recovering.

Trading recommendations

If the USD/JPY continues growing its next stop could well be at 103.00 – 103.50 region. A break below 102.00 would open the way to 101.40.



CAD

General overview

The US dollar slightly fell against the major currencies. The market continued to work out the decision of the UK to exit the EU. Meanwhile, the growth of oil prices supported the Canadian dollar.

Current situation

The pair faced a downside pressure and was falling during the course of the day. The dollar lost about 0.17% in the pair. The pair stopped at the round level of 1.3000.The resistance exists at 1.3100, the support lies at 1.3000.

MACD remained in the positive area, its histogram decreased. The indicator will give sell signals while its histogram decreases. RSI is in the neutral area; its fall from the overbought area is a sell signal. The moving averages formed a cross-over. They are mobbing horizontally.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.2900 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.2800.



GOLD

General overview

On Wednesday, the gold futures showed a growth when investors excluded any further rate hike of the Fed this year when London decided to leave the European Union.

Current situation

The gold was in the green zone yesterday. The price recovered and gained about 0.78%. The pair approached the resistance 1330. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1300.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram stopped decreasing. If the histogram grows the price will follow it. If the MACD returns to a decrease, the drop of the pair will be continued. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is close to the 2 year high on the daily chart. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The price is close to the strong resistance 1330. If the price breaks it we expect the growth to 1360.



Brent

General overview

The crude oil futures continued to recover due to the reduction of oil reserves in the United States. At the same time the dollar fell when the market reduced its expectations that the Fed would hike the rate in 2016. The decline of the dollar also contributed to the demand for the Brent.

Current situation

The oil quotations continued its recovery and gained about 3.29% during the day. The price is trying to return to the upward channel. The Brent approached the 50.50 – 51.00 region where it fell down a week ago. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD moved into the positive area, its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI kept growing after bouncing from the oversold area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) formed a cross-over on the 4 hour chart. The price broke all of them; the 100-day moving average is a support for the futures now. The price bounced from the 50-day moving on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 50.50. After fixing above the first target, the level 51.50 will become the next one.



DAX

General overview

The European stock markets grew on Wednesday, recovering after a collapse due to the Brexit. The Bonds Market was supported by the ECB statements. The regulator promised to take additional measures to limit the impact of the Brexit as well as of high oil prices.

Current situation

The index started Wednesday with a gap upwards. Then DAX continued its recovery and reached the resistance 9550 where it spent the whole day in a consolidation. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

The indicators recommend long positions. MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area and grew upwards. If the oscillator grows further, that will be another buy signal. The Moving Averages (100 and 200) direction is downwards, the 50-day moving is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 9760 and 10000.



S&P 500

General overview

The US stocks sharply rose on Wednesday. The Bonds Market has been growing the second day in a row, as the initial panic that was caused by the decision of the UK to leave the European Union disappears. The Standard & Poor's 500 came out in profit compared with levels where it was at the end of the last year.

Current situation

The index recovered and was able to set a new local high at 2061. SP500 was able to grow by 1,65% during the course of trades. The resistance comes in at 2070, the support lies at 2055.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator reached the centerline. If MACD moves into the positive area the index will keep growing. RSI is near the overbought level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it move upwards and the index will grow. The index broke the 50-SMA on the 4 hour chart. The 50-SMA is moving downwards. The 100-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA downwards.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 2040 breakthrough down the way to the support 2025 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.07.2016

Euro

General overview

In economic news, a preliminary Consumer Price Index in the Euro zone unexpectedly rose in June. The release decreased investors' concerns about the threat of deflation in the region. The growth of the prices was positive news for the European Central Bank (ECB) which plans to reach the target inflation rate of 2%. Mark Carney’s speech supported the dollar yesterday.

Current situation

Technically, the main trend is down, the pair remained in a descending channel. All attempts to break through 1.1130 failed. The level 1.1130 and the 50-day moving average limited a growth of the instrument. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, that is a sell signal for now. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the neutral area; the indicator turned down to the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0900, 1.0830.



Pound

General overview

Yesterday, the pound grew against the US dollar after the block of the UK positive economic data. The markets continued their recovery after the UK decision to leave the European Union. Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) gave his speech yesterday. His promises to reduce the rate this summer weakened the pound.

Current situation

The pound slowed down its recovery and stopped at the mark of 1.3500. The instrument fell at the American session, the pair lost about 1.47%. The pair is still within a short-term upward channel. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram decreased. The indicator will give buy signals if the histogram grows. Conversely, if MACD decreases that will be a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area, that is a sell signal. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The next buyers’ stop could well be at 1.3700. However, we do not see any strong drivers in the foreseeable future. We support the idea of selling the pound further to the support 1.3100.



Yen

General overview

The industrial production fell in Japan in May. According to the Ministry of Economy, slow down of the world economy and problems with the automobile sector severely affected the industrial production, which fell by 2.3% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged.

Current situation

The instrument showed side trades during the day and was able to grow only at the American session. The pair grew by 0.32%. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The growth of MACD slowed down. The indicator remained in the negative area. If the indicator keeps heading north the growth of the pair will be continued. RSI is in the neutral area, the oscillator does not give signals. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The pair tested the 50-day moving yesterday. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the instrument. The pair is oversold on the daily chart and is recovering.

Trading recommendations

If the USD/JPY continues growing its next stop could well be at 103.00 – 103.50 region. A break below 102.00 would open the way to 101.40.



Franc

General overview

We do not expect a sharp correction of the franc after the warnings of the Switzerland Bank regarding its possible intervention in case of a sharp growth of the franc after the Brexit. In economic news, Swiss National Bank expects to achieve a positive inflation in 2018.

Current situation

The market looks bearish. The instrument began Thursday with a drop. The pair was able to break the mark 0.9750 and set a new local low at 0.9724. However, the American traders returned the dollar above 0.9750. The resistance exists at 0.9800, the support lies at 0.9750.

MACD remained in the positive area, its histogram decreased. The indicator will give sell signals while its histogram decreases. RSI is in the neutral area; its fall from the overbought area is a sell signal. The moving averages formed a cross-over. They are moving horizontally.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to the support level of 0.9750. We do not exclude the growth to 0.9850.



NZD

Despite the fact that the dollar is largely won from the risk aversion that happened due to the Brexit the weakened expectations that the Fed would hike the interest rates this year limited its growth.

Current situation

The kiwi slowed down its recovery and stopped at the mark of 0.7140. The instrument fell at the Asian session, and then recovered during the day. The resistance 0.7150 limits its further progress. The pair is within a short-term upward channel. The resistance is at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD moved into the positive area. The indicator shows a divergence. MACD will give buy signals if the histogram grows. Conversely, if MACD decreases that will be a sell signal. RSI approached the overbought area, that is a buy signal. The NZD/USD is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards, that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.7150 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.7250 will be opened after this breakthrough.



GOLD

General overview

On Thursday the gold weakened due to the decrease of the passions over the London decision to leave the UK. The current stability in the markets undermined demand for the safe assets.

Current situation

The gold remained in a consolidation phase. The pair was moving in a range 1312 – 1325. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1300.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram continued decreasing. If the histogram grows the price will follow it. If the MACD returns to a decrease, the drop of the pair will be continued. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is close to the 2 year high on the daily chart. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1300 breakthrough down the way to the support 1270 will be opened.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices have shown the biggest growth since 2009 in the second quarter of 2016. The factors that supported the Brent were: a drop in the US production, forest fires in Canada and fighting in Nigeria and Libya. All these factors significantly reduced the surplus of the world market.

Current situation

The oil quotations stopped its recovery and corrected yesterday. The oil futures moved from the local high at 51.00 and reached the support at 49.50. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD moved into the positive area, its histogram decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow, otherwise the price will decrease. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are below the metal on the 4 hour chart. The price broke all of them down after that it returned above of them. The price bounced from the 50-day moving on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 49.50. When the price consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 48.50.



DAX

General overview

The German stock market closed the day in a green zone due to strengthening of the public services sector, consumer goods and food and beverage.

Current situation

The index spent Thursday in a green zone. DAX showed a sharp growth and reached the next resistance within the hours. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

The indicators recommend long positions. MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area and grew upwards. If the oscillator grows further, that will be another buy signal. The Moving Averages (100 and 200) direction is downwards, the 50-day moving is horizontal. The price DAX broke the 50-EMA but did not grow further.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 10000 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 10175.



S&P 500

General overview

The index continued its recovery yesterday. The oil, gas and financial sectors were in demand. Segate (the storage systems producer) development plans also supported S&P 500.

Current situation

The index recovered and was able to set a new local high at 2088. SP500 was able to grow by 1,25% during the course of trades. Now the resistance comes in at 2085, the support lies at 2070.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram grew. If MACD keeps growing the index will keep growing. RSI is near the overbought area. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it move upwards and the index will grow further. The index broke all moving averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. All moving averages are below of the S&P 500, that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 2085, it may continue the upward movement in the short term. The potential target is 2100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The international rating agency S&P decided to decrease the EU rating to AA level due to the Brexit. The published Business PMI in the Eurozone came in better than traders expected; as a result the euro was able to strengthen against the dollar. On Monday, the US markets will be closed amid a national holiday – Independence Day.

Current situation

The EUR/USD showed a mixed dynamic last Friday. Even though the pair grew its growing impulse faded away by the end of the trades. The euro was able to break the mark 1.1130. However it did not have strength to move higher. The new local high is at 1.1167. The level 1.1160 and the 100-day moving average limited growth of the pair. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, that is a sell signal for now. The resistance stands at 1.1200, the support lies in at 1.1130.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the neutral area; the indicator does not give a clear signal.

Trading recommendations

A move above the resistance 1.1130 will open the way towards 1.1200. If the instrument moved down there will be a high chance to reach 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

According to Mark Carney (the Governor of the Bank of England) the regulator may lower the rate this summer. After that news the pound weakened and lost about 150 pips. The next meeting of the Central Bank is in two weeks. Most likely the regulator will pave the way for the additional incentives at the July meeting and will implement them in August.

Current situation

The pound returned to the sales. The level 1.3300 held buyers’ attempts to grow. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram remained at the same level. RSI approached the oversold area, that is a sell signal. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The next buyers’ stop could well be at 1.3700. A break below 1.3300 risks a decline back towards the support at 1.3100.



Yen

General overview

According to Japanese government the consumer prices continued to fall that caused a weakening of household spending in May. This creates additional pressure on the Bank of Japan which is dissatisfied with the current strengthening of the Japanese yen.

Current situation

The instrument decreased from a local high. The pair tended to return below 102.50. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The growth of MACD slowed down. The indicator remained in the negative area, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the neutral area, the oscillator does not give signals. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The pair tested the 50-day moving and bounced downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the pair.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 102.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 101.40.



AUD

The Australian dollar rose by 0,63% during the Friday trades. The US dollar was stable against major currencies, while the uncertainty after a referendum in the United Kingdom persisted.

Current situation

The aussie was actively growing and was able to reach the mark of 0.7500. The price just tested the resistance and was not able to break it through. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD moved into the positive area. The indicator shows a divergence. RSI approached the overbought area. If the signal line moves higher that will be a buy signal, if it decreases that will be a sell signal for us. The instrument is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards, that is a buy signal. The price moved away from the averages and may return to them soon.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 0.7500 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 0.7400, 0.7270.



GOLD

General overview

The price grew on the weakening of the US currency. A cheap dollar traditionally has a positive effect on the price of gold as it makes it cheaper for holders of foreign currencies. In addition, the UK decision to leave the EU had a strong influence on the price of gold.

Current situation

The gold slightly grew last Friday amid the weakening of the dollar. The instrument was able to set a new local high at 1341. The resistance is at 1360 now, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1330 and 1300.



Brent

General overview

The forecasts that the major Central Banks may soften their monetary policies supported the oil futures. Besides, the sales that were connected with the end of the quarter are ended and a bullish sentiment returned to the markets.

Current situation

The oil quotations returned to a recovery. The Brent futures were able to grow by 0.76%. Now the price approached a strong psychological mark at 50.50. The Brent formed a trading range on the 4 hour chart: 46.70 – 50.65. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow, otherwise the price will decrease. The crude oil futures bounced from the 50- day moving average and grew on the 4 hour chart. The price broke through the other two movings: 100-day moving and 200-day moving averages.

Trading recommendations

We believe the instrument will remain in the current trading range 46.50 – 50.50 without new fundamental drivers. If the Brent keeps growing the price will reach 51.50.



NASDAQ

General overview

The US stock market grew on technical factors in the first half of Friday trading. The buyers received some support at the European session. The European Central Bank is considering changes in its program of bonds purchases. At the same time the head of the Bank of England hints about further monetary easing in order to overcome the economic consequences of the Brexit.

Current situation

The index spent Friday in a green zone. NASDAQ showed a growth and reached the next resistance within the hours. The resistance comes at 4440, the support exists at 4400.

The indicators still recommend long positions. MACD is in the positive area; its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI grew upwards to the overbought area. If the oscillator grows further, that will be another buy signal; if its signal line decreases that will be a buy signal. The price bounced from the 100-day moving average and was able to break the 200-day moving. After the break the price remained on the 200-day moving which is horizontal. The Moving Averages (50 and 100) direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. After the resistance level of 4440 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 4500 will be opened. We do not exclude the falls to 4350.



S&P 500

General overview

The stock indices finished the week with a growth by an average of 3%. The stock market received some support from Mark Carney’s statements (the Bank of England Governor). According to Mark Carney the regulator may soften its monetary policy this summer.

Current situation

The index grew and was able to set a new local high at 2100. S&P 500 was able to grow by 1,20% during the course of Friday trades. Now the resistance comes in at 2100, the support lies at 2085.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI is near the overbought area. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it move upwards we will get a buy signal. The index broke all moving averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. All moving averages are below of the S&P 500, that is a buy signal. The price may decrease soon towards the moving averages.

Trading recommendations

The level of 2100 limits the growth of the index. A cut through here will aim at the 2120 level. Alternatively, the SP500 will decrease to 2070.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro regained lost ground against the US dollar, the price returned to the opening level. Initially, the euro declined due to the weak data of the investor confidence indicator from Sentix. According to the indicator investors' sentiment worsened in the Eurozone in July. The index reached 18-month low due to the increased concerns about the economic impact of the Brexit.

Current situation

The EUR/USD spent the day at the opening level. Technically the indicators are in a flat within a neutral zone. The indicators MACD and RSI are not showing a clear direction. The MACD remained at the zero line. RSI is close to the overbought area. The resistance stands at 1.1200, the support lies in at 1.1130.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are horizontal. The pair receives a good support from the 200-day moving average near 1.1100. The 100-day moving average is a resistance.

Trading recommendations

If the EUR/USD moves above the mark 1.1130 the euro may grow towards 1.1200. If the instrument moves down the pair may reach 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

Construction sector activity in the UK unexpectedly fell in June to a seven-year low. That news added additional concerns that the British economy slows down after the Brexit referendum.

Current situation

The pair traded at the previous week close levels. The price spent the day in a narrow flat within 1.3330 – 1.3230. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

Indicators remained in a red zone. MACD is in the negative area, the histogram is at the same level it closed last week. RSI is close to the oversold area. The 50-day moving average limits the growth on the 1-hour chart. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards. All indicators support the bearish trend.

Trading recommendations

Buyers seem not to have enough powder to launch the pair upwards. We expect markets to stay fairly neutral until Mark Carney gives his speech. We will be keeping a close eye on the resistance 1.3500. If the pair fixates over it the instrument may grow to 1.3700 to close the gap. Should the level 1.3200 break down and the pair may drop further to 1.2900.



Yen

General overview

The dollar slightly changed against other currencies in a quiet Monday while the markets are again cautious and this time it is all about the Fed decision to hike the rate or not. The USD/JPY continued to ignore the growth of "risk appetite" that indicated sellers’ presence in the market.

Current situation

The instrument remained at the level of 102.50 on Monday. The market showed low volatile trades due to the Independence Day celebration in the USA. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) are in a red zone. Both indicators do not give clear signals. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The pair tested the 50-day moving and bounced downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the pair.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 103.50, 104.50. If the price falls it will get to 101.40.



NZD

The pair NZD/USD strengthened by 0.84% to 0.7250. Commodity currencies grew due to the oil price growth. The news that Weekly Crude Oil Stock decreased in the USA supported the Brent futures.

Current situation

The kiwi continued its recovery and was able to set a new local high at 0.7250. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7150.

MACD remained in the positive area. The positive MACD signals about buyers’ presence. RSI reached the overbought area. We prefer to buy until it stays close to the overbought level. The NZD/USD is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards, that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

An uptrend will be continued as soon as the pair rises above 0.7250. A move below 0.7050 may trigger a downward movement towards testing 0.6950.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures continued to climb, remaining near a two-year high. The fading expectations that the Fed will hike the rate this year supported the precious metal.

Current situation

The gold slightly grew due to the absence of American traders on Monday. The pair gained 1.53% and approached the lately set high at 1360. The resistance is at 1360 now, the support comes in at 1330.

Technically, indicators support the overbought zone. The MACD is growing with strong momentum, the RSI oscillator moved above the level of 70 that is a good bullish signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards, that signals about a growth tendency.

Trading recommendations

The gold metal may continue its growth before Non-Farms. The price may break the resistance 1360 and reach 1390. If we receive positive Non-Farms the instrument may decrease below 1316.



Brent

General overview

The Brent continued its recovery yesterday. The events in Nigeria and the Norwegian oil and gas industry workers’ victory in a fight for higher wages supported the oil prices

Current situation

The oil continued its recovery on Monday. The fundamental background supported the oil futures. The price was able to reach a current resistance at 50.50 where it turned down and slightly decrease. The mark 50.50 seems to be a hard level to break. The price has recently bounced downwards four times from this level. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) remain positive. Staying in a green zone is a positive factor for buyers. The moving averages form a cross-over. The 100-day moving average broke the 200-day moving average on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 49.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 48.50.



DAX

General overview

There was a low volatile trading at the European Bonds Market due to the Independence Day celebration in the USA. The European stocks traded in the red zone after a four-day rally, as the decline in shares of the Italian banks eliminated the growth in price of the mining companies securities. The weak statistics in the EU and the UK pressured the indices as well. In addition, the European automobile producers lost some positions: Fiat Chrysler shares became cheaper by 4.0%, Porsche by 3.1%, Renault and Peugeot by 2.9%.

Current situation

The index decreased from the recently sent highs at 9800. DAX30 returned below the level of 9760 and ended the day close to the mark of 9700. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) remained in a green zone. MACD slightly decreased, RSI moved from the overbought level. The staying in a green zone is a good supporting factor for the buyers. The price returned below the 50-day moving average. The 100-day moving average is a resistance for the index. The moving averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

The index now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 9550. We feel comfortable taking short-term short positions. Alternatively, there will be a break above 9760 and a growth towards 9870.



S&P 500

General overview

The excitement about the Brexit calms down and the Bonds Market in the USA is returning to the levels it was before the crisis.

Current situation

The index remained close to 2100, the level it reached last week. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support lies at 2085.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram remained at the same levels. RSI is in the overbought area. The indicators indicate a buy signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning upwards on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The target is the level 2120. We do not exclude the falls to 2085.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The Euro weakened due to the uncertainty regarding the future of the UK and Italian banks. The Italian Government is considering banks recapitalization to overcome the current situation.

Current situation

The pair remained below the upward channel. There was an attempt to grow that failed. The pair bounced upwards from the 50-day moving average and approached the 200-day moving average on the 4 hour chart. However, the returned sellers sent the price below 1.1130. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

Technically the indicators remained in a green zone. The indicator MACD decreased. If its histogram returns into a negative area it will be a sign to sell. RSI moved away from an oversold area, which is a sell signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are horizontal. The 50-day moving average is a resistance.

Trading recommendations

We are looking for the support 1.1050 break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.1000. Otherwise, the pair may grow 1.1200-1.1220.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell to 31-year low against the US dollar after the weak data of UK service sector. The Bank of England decided to launch new liquidity measures to support the financial sector.

Current situation

The GBP/USD remained under pressure. The pair was not able to break 1.3500 and decreased to 31-year lows. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

Indicators remained in a red zone. MACD decreased, which is a sell signal. RSI entered the oversold zone, it is also a sell signal. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards. All indicators support the bearish trend.

Trading recommendations

Sellers are targeting to test the psychological level 1.3000. If they succeed the pair will decrease to 1.2900.



Yen

General overview

The yen grew amid an increased demand for the safe assets. This was due to the new signs of uncertainty about the future of the UK and Italian banks.

Current situation

The USD/JPY got under pressure when traders began profit-taking. The pair decreased and set a new local low at 101.40. The resistance stands at 102.50, the support is at 101.40.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) continued giving signals to sell. MACD decreased, RSI touched the oversold area. The instrument moved from the 50-EMA on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, it is another sell signal.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 101.40 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 100.30.



AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian Central Bank left the interest rates unchanged amid a political instability in the country and abroad.

Current situation

The price was not able to move far from 0.7500. After reaching 0.7550 the AUD fell and set a new local low at the mark 0.7450. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD and RSI decreased, which is a sell signal. Any further decrease will indicate sellers growing strength. The instrument approached the 50-day moving average on the 4 hour chart. This line may become a support for the price and it bounces upwards. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The price may bounce from the level 0.7440 (the 50-EMA). In the scenario where the buyers return to the market the price will grow to 0.7550. Alternatively, if the AUD/USD does make a breakout at the level 0.7450 the price will decrease to 0.7400.



GOLD

General overview

The gold grew yesterday due to expectations that leading Central Banks will increase their incentives to prevent Brexit effect.

Current situation

The gold futures continued its growth and approached the recently set high at 1360. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

Technically, indicators remained in a green zone. MACD and RSI grew which is a buy signal. The growth of indicators indicate buyers’ strength. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards, it is another buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1360 and 1390.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices were under pressure as concerns over the global economy pressured the future demand of oil.

Current situation

The Brent futures were able to test a strong physiological level 50.50. After testing the level the oil quotes decreased. The Brent broke levels 49.50, 48.50 and touched 47.50. In general, the crude oil futures lost about 4% during the trades. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) became negative and ended the day in a red zone. MACD moved into the negative zone, RSI touched the oversold area, which is a sell signal. The 100-day moving average broke the 50-EMA and 200-EMA on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

If the resistance around 47.50 holds the next stop could well be at the 46.50 region. Conversely, the Brent will grow to 49.50.



NASDAQ

General overview

The global stock markets showed a negative trend yesterday. The demand for risky assets decreased and Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.13%.

Current situation

The Nasdaq returned to sales after a four-day rally. The index reversed at 4440 and fell below 4400. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day at mark 4384. The resistance comes at 4400, the support exists at 4350.

Even though MACD decreased its histogram remained in a positive zone. RSI moved away from the oversold area. Both indicators recommend short positions. The price broke the 200-EMA and touched the 100-day moving average. The 200-day moving direction is horizontal. The 50-EMA and 100-EMA are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 4350.



S&P 500

General overview

The US indexes fell when the oil futures and the other commodities decreased. There will begin a season of finance reports in the USA soon. According to analysts, the profit of the companies included in the S&P 500 declined by 5.4% in the second quarter.

Current situation

The S&P500 was growing almost the week and stopped its rally at the mark 2100. The price reversed and lost about 0.84% during the trades. The resistance comes in at 2085, the support lies at 2070.

MACD and RSI decreased from the overbought level. Indicators recommend short positions. The index broke the 200-day moving average and approached the 100-EMA. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are horizontal on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 2070. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 2055.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.07.2016

Euro

General overview

EURUSD weakened yesterday. There are no positive drivers for the euro. The retail sector in the Eurozone declined, and the euro began experiencing the effects of Brexit.

Current situation

The euro again came under pressure. This time the EUR/USD fell due to the risk aversion. The pair tried to recover yesterday, but stopped at the mark 1.1100. The immediate support is seen at 1.1000, the resistance stands at 1.1130.

The indicators recommend short positions. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards. The price touched the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The pair is below the 100-EMA and 200-EMA on the same chart.

The indicator MACD decreased. If its histogram stays in the negative area it will be a signal to sell. RSI moved away from an oversold area. If its signal line turns back to undervalued zone it will be a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

To trigger further downward movement the pair needs to fall below 1.1050. Alternatively, the EUR/USD will recover to 1.1130. We believe that the euro will remain under pressure until the UK leaves the EU.



Pound

General overview

The pound continued to fall against the US currency, despite BoE Governor (Mark Carney) clear plan on: how to support the British economy. The political vacuum in the United Kingdom is blocking any further actions to support the economy. Meanwhile, the outflow of the capital in the country is also gaining power.

Current situation

The GBP/USD remained under pressure, its main trend is down. The GBP/USD broke a strong psychological level 1.3300 and lost about 200 pp. The pair set a fresh 31-year low at the mark 1.2793. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

The indicators remained in a red zone. MACD decreased, which is a sell signal. RSI remained in the oversold area, it is also a sell signal.

The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards. All indicators support the bearish trend.

Trading recommendations

We believe that any recovery will be short-lived and will be limited in 1.3500 region. The main trend is down. We think that the levels 1.2900 and 1.2700 are the next sellers’ targets.



Yen

General overview

The dollar fell against the yen, as British pound sales had an upward pressure on the Japanese currency. The yen also received support when traders began closing their long positions in the emerging markets.

Current situation

The pair has been correcting for 4 days in a roll. The instrument decreased as a risk aversion sentiment dominated in the financial word. The price set a new low since June 24th. The USD/JPY reached a strong psychological level 100.00. The resistance stands at 101.40, the support is at 100.00.

The indicators bounced from the oversold area in the 4 hours chart. MACD remained in the negative zone. At the same time RSI grew away from the oversold area.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards. The technical overlook is bearish.

Trading recommendations

In the event that the sellers manage to force below 100.00 the decrease will be continued to 99.00. The USD/JPY may recover to 102.50.



CAD

General overview

The Canadian dollar as a commodity currency is still under pressure due to the side effect of the British referendum.

Current situation

The pair got under pressure yesterday after reaching a new local high at 1.3050. However, sellers were stopped at 1.3000 level, which limited the further downward movement. The resistance is at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD and RSI decreased, which is a sell signal. Any further decrease will indicate sellers growing strength. The moving averages formed a cross-over in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is a support for the pair. The moving averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

We believe that the price is likely to go to the support level of 1.2900.



GOLD

General overview

The gold has been strengthening for 6 consecutive sessions. The metal is in demand due to the risk aversion in the market after Brexit. In addition, investors are waiting for leading Central Banks to start their new easing measures, which will support gold futures.

Current situation

The gold futures continued its growth and set a new high at 1374. This is the highest mark since 2014. After reaching 1374 the pair started a consolidation and decreased to 1360. The resistance is at 1390, the support comes in at 1360.

Technically, indicators remained in a green zone. MACD and RSI grew which is a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought zone. The indicator will give a buy signal till it stays in the current zone.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart. The price resides above them. In the 1 hours chart the price is decreasing to the 50-EMA.

Trading recommendations

The fundamental factors support buyers. We presume that any correction will be short-lived. In the potential scenario, the next stop for the XAUUSD could well be around 1390. A break below 1350 will be followed by moving down to the support level 1330.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices stabilized after the sharp losses of the day before. However, Brent remained in the red zone. The oil declined when investors turned their attention to the safe assets due to renewed concerns about the global economic prospects.

Current situation

The Brent recovered after a 3 day decreased. The price was able to grow by 1.50%. The level 49.50 stooped its further growth. The resistance is at 49.50, the support is at 48.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) remained negative and ended the day in a red zone. RSI bounced from the oversold area. If it grows further it will be a buy signal for us. Sellers will prevail till MACD remains in the negative zone.

The price is below the moving averages (50, 100 and 200) in the 4 hours chart. The instrument touched the 50-EMA and bounced downwards. The moving averages are moving horizontal.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks below 47.50 the Brent will decrease to 46.50 region. Conversely, the quotes will continue their recovery to 50.50 area.



DAX

General overview

Most European stock indices fell yesterday due to a new wave of concerns about the global economy after Brexit.

Current situation

The index spent the day in a red zone. DAX30 lost about 1.67% during the trades. The price fell from 9515 and stopped at the mark 9287. This level seems to be a hard barrier for the index as it has been bounced from it many times. The resistance comes at 9550, the support exists at 9400.

MACD remained in the negative area. The indicator will be bearish until it leaves the negative zone. RSI bounced from the overbought area. If the signal line grows further it will be a buy signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 200 and 100 EMAs direction is horizontal in the 1 hours chart. The 50-EMA has broken the 200 and 100 EMAs downwards.

Trading recommendations

The break above 9500 will strengthen buyers’ positions. The price may grow to 9550. Alternatively DAX will decrease to 9250.



S&P 500

General overview

The commodity sector showed the most notable selling in the stock market. The industrial group Danaher showed the largest price change (DHR, -21.4%). The company shares fell as the company shared some parts of its business to a new company.

Current situation

The index showed mixed dynamics, the price was decreasing and growing at the yesterday’s trades. However, buyers won that struggle and SP500 was able to grow by 0.30%. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support lies at 2085.

MACD returned to a growth. The indicator will show a buy signal till it stays in the positive area. RSI reversed to a growth which is a buy signal. The price bounced from the 100-EMA and broke the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The price will grow till it stays above the moving averages (50, 100 and 200) in the 4 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

SP500 may continue its recovery. Buyers’ target is the level 2100. In the alternative scenario the instrument will decrease to 2070.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro decreased against the dollar after the weak Industrial PMI in Germany. The index showed a decrease by 1.3%.

Current situation

The pair remained under pressure. The EUR/USD is in a descending channel. Its low limit resides at the mark 1.1035, its upper limit is at 1.1111. Even though the instrument grew to the local high at 1.1111 on Wednesday the euro failed to reach the key resistance at 1.1130. The immediate support is seen at 1.1050, the resistance stands at 1.1130.

The pair traded below the 200-EMA which is currently seen as a resistance in the 1 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart, it indicates a downtrend. The RSI decreased and is below the 50 level. MACD is in neutral area, close to the centerline. The indicators are still bearish.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD is under pressure. A break below 1.1050 would open the door to 1.1000. Otherwise the price will grow to 1.1130.



Pound

General overview

On Thursday the pound made an attempt to grow from the record lows after a positive Industrial PMI publication. However, investors remained cautious regarding the future of the UK economy that still pressures the pound.

Current situation

The British currency remained inside a short bearish channel. The GBP/USD returned some of its losses during the European session on Thursday. However, the recovery was short-lived and it dropped back to the nearest support 1.2900. The pair is still below the mark 1.30. Investor sentiment towards the pound is still negative. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

The EMA50, EMA100 and EMA200 kept decreasing in the 1 hours chart, which is a sell signal. The EMA50 acts as a resistance for the price. MACD is below its centerline, its histogram decreased. RSI remained close to the oversold area. If the oscillator enters the oversold area, it will be a sell signal. The indicators recommend short positions.

Trading recommendations

The pound remains weak as political uncertainty in the UK is still high. The next target for this pair is the support level of 1.270



Yen

General overview

The yen slightly strengthened after the Japanese regulator’s statements. The BoJ will preserve the quantitative and qualitative easing programs together with the negative rates till they reach the targeted inflation of 2%.

Current situation

The yen traded sideways yesterday. The pair was in a narrow sideways channel between 101.20 and 100.60. The instrument seems not to have enough power to break the strong level 100.00 as bulls defend this psychological mark. The technical outlook is negative for the pair. The resistance stands at 101.40, the support is seen at 100.00.

The price is below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving downwards. The USD/JPY traded below the 50-EMA in the 1 hours chart which acts as a resistance for the instrument.

MACD remained negative, its histogram remained at the same levels. RSI remained at the same level as well. Its signal line is close to the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

In the event that the sellers manage to force below 100.00 the decrease will be continued to 99.00. The USD/JPY may recover to 102.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar decreased when the rating agency S&P downgraded the Australian credit rating. The rating was downgraded from stable to negative.

Current situation

The AUD/USD decreased after wining back some of its losses on Wednesday. The instrument traded in a descending channel where the pair moved from its upper limit yesterday. The mark 0.7540 remains the key resistance for the pair which is defended by sellers as the pair has bounced from the level the second time within a week. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards. The price is approaching the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart.

MACD decreased, if its histogram enters the negative zone it will be a sell signal. RSI is below the 50 level. If its signal line decreases we will get a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The fundamentals pressured the Australian dollar. The price is expected to fall towards 0.7400 (the 200-EMA).



GOLD

General overview

On Thursday, the yellow metal traded near 28-month high. The unemployment reports in the USA came in better than expected. That news supported the dollar and slowed down the growth of the gold.

Current situation

The gold decreased on Thursday after a rally to its highest since 2014 on Wednesday. The gold futures lost about 0.50% during the course of trades. However, the pair was able to return some of its losses. The resistance is at 1390, the support comes in at 1360.

MACD and RSI decreased from the oversold area. However, the indicators remained in a green zone. If RSI returns into the overbought zone it will be a buy signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart. The XAU/USD bounced upwards from the 100-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance for the price.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The target is the level 1390.



Brent

General overview

The Brent returned into the red zone when Crude Oil Stocks change report showed a decrease that coincided with investors' expectations. Analysts remained disappointed as they expected a stronger drop.

Current situation

The Brent futures dropped from 49.50 to 46.50 on Thursday. The instrument lost about 300 pp and stopped its fall at 46.15. The resistance exists at 47.50, the support lies at 46.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) do not give a clear signal. The overall picture remained bearish.
The price is below the moving averages (50, 100 and 200) in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 46.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 45.30.



Nasdaq

Current situation

The index consolidated trading close to the level 4440. Nasdaq traded in s sideways after a Wednesday’s rally. The resistance comes at 4440, the support exists at 4400.

The indicators are in the green zone and recommend long positions. MACD is in the positive area; its histogram remained at the same level, it is a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator grows further, that will be a buy signal. The 200-EMA acts as a support for the index and does not let it fall below in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA direction is horizontal. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100-EMA is moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 4440 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 4350.



S&P 500

General overview

Strong Labor market reports in the USA supported the Bonds Market which grew on Thursday.

Current situation

The index showed mixed dynamics on Thursday. The pair made an attempt to grow during the day and fell in the American session. The overall picture remained bullish. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support lies at 2085.

The indicators are in the green zone. MACD is in the positive area; its histogram remained at the same level, it is a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator grows further, it will be a buy signal. The 200-EMA acts as a support for the S&P 500 in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA direction is horizontal. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100-EMA is moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The index S&P 500 decrease may be continued. If the SP500 index breaks the level of 2085 we expect the downward movement to 2070.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The USA labor report supported the dollar. The Non-Farm Payrolls showed 287K versus the forecasted 175K. However, the unemployment rate grew from 4,7% to 4,9%.

Current situation

The pair remained under pressure. The Non-Farm supported the dollar which was able to grow by 120pp. However, its growth was short-lived and the pair returned to a decrease. The immediate support is seen at 1.1050, the resistance stands at 1.1130.

MACD is in the negative area, the histogram little changed since the end of the last week. The indicator shows the sellers’ strong positions. RSI approached the oversold area. If the oscillator enters the oversold area, it will be a sell signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart. In the 1 hours chart the price touched the 50-EMA and bounced from the 100-EMA.

Trading recommendations

We recommend short positions. A downtrend will be continued as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

The pound grew against the dollar on Friday after a strong Trade Balance report. Investors’ concerns regarding the Brexit faded for a while.

Current situation

The pair little changed since the last week. The GBP/USD traded at the support 1.2900 last Friday. The instrument is in the descending channel, at its lower limit. The pound is consolidating after a sharp drop. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the negative area that indicates the sellers’ strong positions. RSI rebounded from the oversold area. If the oscillator enters the oversold area, it will be a sell signal. Its growth will weaken the sellers’ positions.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The pound is at the 50-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 100-EMA acts as a resistance for the instrument.

Trading recommendations

We preserve a bearish outlook for the pair. After the 1.2900 support break the price may fall to 1.2700. Alternatively, the GBP/USD may recover to 1.3300.



Yen

General overview

The dollar strengthened after a strong Non-Farm Payrolls report. Despite the positive Non-Farm the USA economy remained under pressure.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained in the descending channel in the 4 hors chart. The price is in a flat on the level 100.00. The resistance stands at 101.40, the support is seen at 100.00.

The price is below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The instrument tested the 100-EMA and bounced from it below the 50-EMA in the 1 hours chart.

MACD remained negative that indicates the sellers’ strong positions. RSI is close to the oversold area. If the oscillator enters the oversold area, that will be a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to stay in a flat 101.40-100.00. We do not exclude an upward correction. If the pair breaks 101.40 up it will open the way to the level of 102.50.



CAD

General overview

The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased in Canada in June.

Current situation

The CAD is in an ascending channel, near its upper limit. The pair made an attempt to break the level 1.3100, however, the attempt failed. The price bounced from the resistance 1.3100 downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are horizontal in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.3000.

MACD is in the positive area that indicates the buyers’ strong positions. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator enters the overbought area, we expect the growth continuation.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2900. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.2800.



GOLD

General overview

The gold quotes decreased after a strong Labour market report in the USA. However, the decrease was short-lived and the gold grew back due to uncertainty about the Brexit results.

Current situation

The gold futures remained near the 31 year highs. There were volatile trades on Friday after the fundamental news from the USA. The USA published a strong Non-Farm report. However, the report did not weaken the metal. The XAUUSD renewed local lows at 1335 and returned to its highs in the 1370 region. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the positive area; its histogram growth will indicate the buyers’ positions strength. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator enters the overbought area, it will be a buy signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart. The XAUUSD tested and bounced upwards from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the price.

Trading recommendations

The trend is objectively bearish, however, the price is overvalued and the XAUUSD may start a correction soon. If the pair grows its next stop could be at 1390. If the yellow metal falls the level 1330 will become the sellers’ target.



Brent

General overview

The uncertainty about the global economy pressured the oil futures. The Brent was volatility, the price declined due to an excess of the petroleum products and an economy growth slowdown. However, the disruptions with the oil supplies and expectations that the world oil reserves will be decreased supported the futures.

Current situation

The Brent has been under pressure since the beginning of the summer. The instrument is at the low limit of the descending channel. The price is at the key support 46.50. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downward in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is a key resistance for the pair. The resistance exists at 47.50, the support lies at 46.50.

MACD histogram decreased that indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is close to the oversold area. If the oscillator remains at the same levels, we expect the downward movement continuation.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 47.50 and 48.50.



DAX

General overview

The German stock market grew on Friday. The technology, media and construction sectors strengthened most of all. The shares of ThyssenKrupp AG were the growth leaders among the DAX 30 index components. The shares gained 6.47%.

Current situation

The German DAX slowed down its growth last Friday. The index is in a consolidation in the 1 hours chart.

MACD is close the centerline that indicates the sellers’ positions weakness. RSI rebounded from the oversold area that also supported buyers.

The 200-EMA stopped the DAX growth, the 100-EMA acts as a support for the price. The pair recovered to the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart which acts as a resistance for the index. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

Trading recommendations

Although the pair seemed to continue with the recovery its growth slowed down. To trigger additional upward momentum the index needs to break the current resistance at 9625. Alternatively, the DAX will decrease towards 9400.



S&P 500

General overview

The American Band Market grew last Friday after a strong Non-Farm Payrolls release. The shares of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo и Bank of America grew by 1-2%.

Current situation

The positive news from the USA supported the index. The SP500 grew with a gap just after the Labour market release. The instrument set a new local high at 2125. Now the price reached the pre-Brexit levels.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning upwards. The resistance comes in at 2120, the support lies at 2100.

MACD is increasing that indicates the buyers’ positions strength. RSI is in the overbought area. If the oscillator remains at the same levels, it will be a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 2120 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 2140.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman