"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market volatility decreased before the summit in Doha, its results may impact the risk assets. In addition, the US currency got under pressure after the Fed comments and the weak inflation data from the US. According to D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) he would not vote for a rate hike in April, supporting a cautious approach to the monetary policy tightening due to low consumer spending. By the end of the trades the market volatility increased.

The United States published Industrial Production volume for March. The index came in at the level of -0,6% m/m (the previous value was -0.50% m/m, the forecast was -0.60% m/m) and the Consumer Sentiment index (from the University of Michigan) for April. The index showed 89.7 (the previous value was 91.0, the forecast was 92.3).

The Euro area inflation data had no significant effect on the EUR/USD (the index reached the zero value after falling by 0.1% y/y). The Euro zone published Trade Balance for February. The index showed 19.0 billion euro, the previous value was 20.0 billions. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

Bank of England did not bring any surprises, leaving the rate unchanged at the level of 0,5%. The Bank pointed to the risks related to the Brexit. The pound remained calm to the regulator’s statements. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar sharply increased.

The weak US retail sales, PPI and CPI reports disappointed investors. The US and Japanese government bond yields decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the US assets. The pair dollar/yen decreased by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew, which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Traders expect any substantial statements from the ECB on Thursday April 21st, which is likely to confirm that the recent announced monetary policy easing measures will be effective during the inflation growth.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1260 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell when the IMF changed the forecast of UK GDP for the current year from 2.2% to 1.9%. The IMF again reminded about the consequences of London Brexit which continue to pressure the market. The strong economic reports could not support the pound: the CPI accelerated to 0.5% - this is the highest level in the past 15 months, the Core Inflation grew from 1.2% to 1.5%. Only by the end of the trades the pound strengthened amid the dollar’s weakness.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.4240. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The weak USA inflation report slightly weakened the JPY/USD. In Japan the Industrial Production decreased by 5.2%. This news supported the dollar. However the pair decreased amid the USA weak statistics.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 108.20 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 107.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

The USD/CHF remained at the same place. Earlier the dollar stabilized against the majors when D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) stated that the GBP data was disappointing. Still they forecast the GBP will show a growth at around 2%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar weakened amid the risk aversion in the stock markets. The interest in the safe assets grew amid the fall of oil prices. The oil prices fell after negative results of the oil exporters' meeting in Doha. The weaker-than-expected data from the US pressured the dollar as well. The USA Industrial Production fell by 0.6% against the expected 0.1%, Capacity Utilization fell to 74.8% from 75.4%, and the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April (Reuters/Michigan) fell to 89.7 against the forecast of 92.

The fall of the risk appetite supported the euro as a funding currency. The growth slowdown of the Chinese GDP and the weak economic data from the United States cooled-down the interest in the risky assets. The main factors that caused the dollar fall were: China economic growth decrease to its lowest level and moderately negative data on the US inflation. The pair EUR/USD strengthened.

Traders took profit and closed their orders in oil contracts that caused a technical correction to the psychological level of $ 40 per barrel. Low energy prices n traditionally had a negative impact on the British currency. Then the oil price increased and the pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a growth.

On Monday, William Dudley (the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) said that the US labor market steadily recovered and the Central Bank would gradually and cautiously continue normalizing the interest rates. There were negative reports on Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production last week. These factors also played into the bears’ hands in the pair USD/JPY. After a gap downward the USD/JPY grew by the end of the trades.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Even though the market does not expect any sensation from the ECB meeting on April 21st, it could have a great impact on the EUR/USD. According to Mario Draghi the weakness of emerging markets, uncertain prospects of oil and geopolitical risks hamper European HICP and push the ECB to take action.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell on Monday amid bad news from Doha and deepening fears regarding Brexit. The official campaign for the referendum began last Friday. The two sides are now making efforts to convince the public about the merits of their point of view. According to George Osborne (the UK Finance Minister) the growth of Britain economy will be significantly reduced if the country leaves the EU.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4320 and 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen increased. It should be noted that the demand for the safe-heaven yen jumped to near 18-month high against the dollar, as oil prices collapsed when the largest oil producers failed to reach an agreement. The yen generally strengthened since the beginning of the year, as investors' concerns about the policy of negative interest rates in Japan and Europe led to an increase in demand for safe assets.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 109.00. If the price falls it will get to 108.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The recent risk aversion in the Forex market was caused by the prices collapse whi. The news that exporters did not come to an agreement in Doha to freeze production at January levels disappointed the energy market. Later the situation was fundamentally changed. Traders’ sentiment was improved by the aggressive correction of the “black gold”, together with the positive comments from the Fed (the regulator was confident that the inflation would return to the target level).

Consumer Spending reports in the United States did not allow us to expect a strong data on the building permits volume. Against the background of a low base from December to February (decreased by 9.19%) the index is expected to display growth within the median forecasts at the level of 1,200M. However the data came in at the level of 1,086M.

Germany and Eurozone published Economic Sentiment for April. Economic Sentiment in Germany came in at 11.2 with the forecast of 8.0. The index in Eurozone came in at 21.5 with the expectations of 13.9. The pair EUR/USD finished the day with a growth.

The UK 10-year government bonds yield grew in the bonds market which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

Kuroda (the BoJ Governor) in his interview to Wall Street Journal defended the negative interest rates. According to him the Regulator will low the long-term interest rates by 20 basis points. He also hinted that the Bank of Japan might cut the interest rates further. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro grew amid the risk aversion. Now the euro dynamics depends rather on the market sentiment than on European economic statistics and senior European officials’ comments.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1350 and 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The pound may remain volatile as the possibility of a rate hike was reduced by the Bank of England. While taking a decision on the interest rates last week, the English regulator also discussed the risks for the country economy in case of Brexit. According to M. Carney speech on Tuesday the impact of Brexit would not be helpful and it would make a financing of the payment balance more costly.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

After a strong recovery from 17-month low the pair returned into a narrow range. The US published Building Permits (the index came in at 1.086M, the forecast was 1,200M) and Housing Starts data (the index came in at 1.089M, the forecast was 1.170M).

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 108.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 107.40 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar was under pressure after the weak US statistics publication. In March, Building Permits showed 1.086M vs. the forecast of 1.200M and the previous value 1.177M. Housing Starts index also disappointed the market, falling to 1.089M from 1.194M. The following data supported the US currency: Existing Home Sales showed 5.33M with the forecast of 5.30M.

This week macroeconomic statistics reduced the US and Germany government bonds yield differential, which played into the euro bulls’ hands. ZEW index for April reached the maximum level over the past three months amid decreasing fears about the reduction of Chinese GDP. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

Claimant Count Change for March in the UK grew to 6,7K while the Unemployment Rate remained around 5.1% in February. Average Earnings excluding Bonus for February remained at 2.2%, Average Earnings including Bonus including bonuses fell to 1.8% from 2.1%. The number of unemployed increased by 21 000 people reaching 1.7M. Total wages and salaries in the private sector also slowed down to 1.9%, while the monthly rate fell by 0.9% (the lowest level since July 2014). The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat.

On the one hand, the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the "bullish" sentiment in the commodity market played against the dollar. On the other hand, the "risk appetite" was preserved, that was a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. The USD / JPY strengthened by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In Germany, the Producer Price index was in a flat from February to March. Still the index fell by 3.1% y/y (the strongest drop since January 2010). Economists expected a growth of 0.1% m/m, and a decline of 2.9% y/y. According to the latest reports, the upward pressure on consumer prices from the manufacturers is limited. The consumer climate in 28 EU countries decreased by 3.2 points from 12,2 points in December 2015 to 9 points in March 2016.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBP/USD formed a consolidation. Earlier the pair grew confidently amid the oil prices gain and the interest in risky assets. The number of Brexit opponents recently declined. Probably, the recent government warnings about the enormous impact of the country exit from the European Union had a positive effect on the British people.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4400. If the price falls it will get to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The absence of interest in buying the yen became the driver of an upward correction. The correction turned out to be weak amid the risky assets popularity. A limited growth pointed to the weak position of the US currency, which remained under the pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference became the main events of Thursday. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 0%. According to Draghi he does not exclude a transfer to the negative rates as well. The soft policy will continue until the inflation reaches 2%.

The pound fell against the US dollar after the disappointing retail sales release, that undermined the optimism about the strength of the British economy. The total volume of retail sales for March was expected with a decrease by 0.1%, but it fell even lower to 1.3%.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index for April decreased and showed -1.6. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The yen slightly rose even against the background of weaker-than-expected Trade Balance release. The Balance (taking into account seasonal correction) amounted 755,0B against the expectations of 834,6B. Exports grew from -4.0% y / y to -6.8% y / y, imports grew from -14.2% y / y to 14.9% y / y. Kuroda’s statements regarding further policy easing if necessary supported the yen as well.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference were the focus of our attention yesterday. The regulator left the rates unchanged. The euro strengthened, which had a negative impact on exporters. Manufacturing PMI declined, and Net Exports rose by 25.2B which is by 6.66% less than the year before.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the mark of 1.1260, it might continue the downward movement. The potential target is 1.1150. In the alternative scenario, we will see a move to 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yield reduced in the Bonds market which decreased the attractiveness of the British assets. The UK retail sales fell by 1.3% in March after falling by 0.5% in February. Analysts expected a decrease of 0.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect a decrease towards the level of 1.4160. If the pair gets below the Cloud and consolidates there we will see a deeper move towards 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Merchandise Trade Balance showed 348.4B in the first quarter. The same index showed a negative balance of 1.379T in 2015. The volume of orders for equipment component continued to show a negative dynamics in March. The index showed a decline of 21.2% y / y. The debt market reacted to these reports with the differential expansion of US and Japanese government bonds yields.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 109.80 it may go higher to 110.60. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 108.00.



Franc

General overview

In March, the Trade Surplus amounted 2.163M compared with the previous data of 4.022M. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9700, the next one is at 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9800.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 0.9750 it may go higher to 0.9800. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 0.9650.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday the dollar rose against major currencies to weekly highs amid the disappointing statistics in the Eurozone. The United States published Manufacturing PMI for April. The index came in at 50.8, the forecast was 52.0.

According to Markit research Group PMI composite index in the Euro zone fell to 53.0 in April from 53.1 in March. The same index in Germany rose to 51.9 in April from 50.7 in the previous month, while Service PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.1.

The speculations that the Bank of Japan may introduce new stimulus measures at the next meeting on April 27-28 continued to press the yen. The Central Bank may extend the program of buying assets or promote the interest rates even further into a negative territory.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose more than expected last month. The index showed 51.9 compared with 50.7 in the previous month. Experts expected the index to grow to 51.0.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

We see a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be continued till the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair broke through the first target, the level of 1.1260 and kept going down. We believe the south movement will be continued. The potential target is 1.1150. As a correction we could see a return to 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The British news background was empty last Friday. The market paid attention to the "black gold" dynamics where the price showed a correction. Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count was published. The report again showed the reduction of the drilling rigs in the United States. The index showed 343 versus the previous figure of 351.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The growth will be continued while the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price made new attempts to grow. If the price consolidates above 1.4400 the growth will be continued to 1.4480. We will sell if the price gets below 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese government bonds yields differential expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets. The Bank of Japan plans to introduce negative interest rates on some loans.

The price is finding the first support at 111.40, the next one is at 110.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. Both lines form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the price gets below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is heading towards the resistance of 112.20. Still the USD/JPY may turn down to correct. The correction targets are 111.40 and 110.60.



Franc

General overview

The dollar rose against the Swiss franc at the end of the week. The economic calendar was empty and the market paid attention to the news from the USA. In the US, Manufacturing PMI decreased. The index showed 50.8 with the forecast of 52.0.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9700. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be continued while the price stays above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing to 0.9900. We expect a correction to 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market started the week rather good. Trading was in the absence of any drivers. The United States published New Home Sales report in March (the previous value was 512K; the forecast was 527K). The data came in at the level of 511K.

Germany published Business Climate for April (106.6 versus the forecast of 107.0). The index low forecast is due to its close correlation with the composite PMI. Which prevented a better forecast for Business climate, taking into account the negative dynamics of the latter. However the pair EUR/USD increased.

The pair GBP/USD started the week with a growth. Oil prices successfully completed the previous trading week in the "green zone", despite Doha summit failure. The oil market bullish sentiment had a positive impact on the British currency (as expected). In spite of the oil prices decrease the GBP/USD grew.

The USDJPY rallied amid a sharp collapse of the yen in response to the news from the Bank of Japan. According to the market rumors the regulator is considering the possibility of issuing loans with a negative rate. These conversations provoked the Japanese currency sell-off. Nevertheless, as a result the USD/JPY fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The fact that the ECB left the interest rates unchanged had an impact on the euro. The euro fell in response to this news. The 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in the Bonds Market. Still the pair EUR/USD could slightly strengthen in the beginning of the week. The Fed meeting will be the focus of our attention this week.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.1260 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The sterling grew after Obama’s speech (the US President). According to Barack Obama the UK will get in the "end of line" concerning the trade agreement with the United States if the country leaves the EU alliance. The UK GDP report for the first quarter is the main event in the country for this week. The report is to be published on Wednesday. The forecast is 0.4%, the previous value was 0.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4560, the next one is 1.4640.



Yen

General overview

The dollar declined against the yen on Monday leaving three-week highs. The market is waiting for the Fed meeting and BoJ meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 110.60. We do not exclude the growth to 111.40 and 112.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the economic calendar was full of American releases. Durable Goods Orders report for March was published the first (0.8% vs forecast 1.8%). Consumer Confidence for April came in at 94.2 (the previous value was 94.2, the forecast was 96.0). Traders expected to see a hint regarding the state of the economy before the Fed decision on Wednesday, which could have an impact on any further movement of the dollar. Meanwhile investors avoided opening new positions before the Fed meeting.

There was no important news in the Eurozone yesterday. After a strong growth the pair euro/dollar slightly decreased by the end of the trades.

The UK published Mortgage Approvals index for March (45.1K vs the forecast 46.0K). The pair pound/dollar showed a growth but by the end of the trades it slightly fell.

The interest in the safe assets triggered the buying of yen. The rumours that the BoJ won’t apply new soft measures supported the yen as well. We believe that the regulator will evaluate more carefully the effect of the running measures and will apply the new ones only in June. The pair dollar/yen strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened amid the interest in the safe assets buying. The euro ignored the IFO release and continued slowly growing. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year German government bonds yield rose which increased the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1260 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1150 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield differential (the US and the UK) continued to decline which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. In addition, the release of negative macroeconomic data from the United States contributed to a further decrease of the differential.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The Bonds Market sent "bullish signals": the US and Japanese securities yield differential expanded again which became a bullish factor for the US currency. The oil market growth can become the driver for the dollar to grow.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 112.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 113.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar remained stable to other majors on Wednesday preparing for the final Federal Reserve System political statements. Investors focused on the outcome of the political meeting waiting for any hints regarding the interest rates change in June. The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

Consumer Confidence in Germany significantly improved (9.7 versus the previous 9.4). Consumers believe that the German economy will recover in the coming months and expect its moderate recovery. The pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened.

The pound stopped the growth when the market found out that the UK economy had grown by 0.4%, in line with economists' expectations, but slowed to 0.6% in the previous quarter. The UK economic growth in the first quarter was 2.1%, (on an annual terms) similar to the previous quarter and slightly higher than the expected 2.0%. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

The pair dollar/yen increased by end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the bond market the government bonds yield differential (the US and Germany) decreased, which was a "bullish" factor for the euro. The commodity market showed an upward trend that traditionally had a negative impact on the dollar as commodity prices are in the US currency. The US Fed meeting was the focus of the market attention.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1260 further on we expect a downward movement to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The UK Gross Domestic Product rose up by 0.4%, as expected. The UK economy showed a growth of 0.6%. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year UK government bonds yield increased which slightly supported the demand for the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

All Industry Activity Index (m / m) decreased for the last month (-1.2% vs. the forecast of -1.3%). These data were revised downward to 2.0%. Experts expected the index to decline to 1.3% over the past month. The trading activity was low as traders waited for the Fed and the Bank of Japan meeting outcome.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 111.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 112.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone published the inflation report for Germany (0,2%) and Economic Sentiment Indicator (103,9). In addition, Germany published Unemployment Rate which remained unchanged at 6.2% (in line with the forecasts). Unemployment Change showed -16K.

The UK published Nationwide Housing Prices for April (on a monthly and annual basis). The index showed 0.2% m/m after the previous 0.8% m/m.

The US GDP for the 1st quarter became the main event of the day (the 1st assessment). The index came in at 0.5%, the forecast was 0.7% vs. 1.4% in the 4th quarter. Initial Jobless Claims showed 257K (the previous value was 247K, the forecast was 252K).

The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy and did not extend the stimulus rate. The Central Bank is still focused on the increase in the monetary base by 80 trillion yen per year, the deposit rate remained unchanged at - 0.1%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Unemployment Change in Germany showed -16K, the previous value was -3K. Experts had expected a growth by 4K. Unemployment rate remained at the same level of 6,2%, which corresponded to the forecasts.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1260 soon. The next target will be 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK amounted to 0,2% compared with 0,8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth by 0,4%. The US published the GDP report for April. The data came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the previous value was 1,4% q/q, the forecast was 0,7% q/q).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan did not change the interest rates, as expected. The regulator decided not to apply any further negative interest rates. Industrial Production for March rose by 3.6% on monthly basis, while we expected a growth by 2.9%. Retail Sales fell by 1.1% year on year, although a drop of 1.5 % was expected.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 107.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.60.



Franc

General overview

The USA GDP for the 1st quarter was the main event of Thursday. The release came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the forecast was 0,7% q/q, the previous value was 1,4% q/q). Initial Jobless Claims number was the focus of our attention as well. The data came in at the level of 257K (the forecast was 260K the previous value was 247K).

The first support lies at 0.9660 and then at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman