"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market sentiment worsened after the weak US data publication. The dollar lost ground against the European currency. Initial Jobless Claims in the USA rose to 278 000 from 272 000, labor costs sharply fell to 3.3% against the expected growth of 4.7%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came more than expected 190 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 242 thousand.

Some economists believe that the strong employment data in the private sector will make it possible for the Fed's to increase the rate at its meeting on March 16th. The USA published another important release: unemployment rate for February (the previous value was 4.9%, the forecast was 4.9%). The data came in at the forecasted median. The pair EUR/USD strengthened by the end of the trades.

The pound was trying to grow still the negative fundamental background showed that we should expect a new downtrend in the near future. All three UK Markit’s reports from published this week disappointed investors with their weak data. In addition service PMI for February dropped to its lowest level since March 2013 to 52.7 vs. 55.1. The pair GBP/USD increased.

The USA published the foreign trade balance for January (the previous value was 43.36B; the forecast was -43.5B). The pair USD/JPY is trading in a side corridor.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The positive reports from the euro zone supported the euro. Service PMI rose to 53.3 from 53.0, while retail sales increased by 2.0% y/y, when analysts expected a slowdown in growth by 1.3% from 2.1% in January. We believe that the weak US data were a driver of the pair’s growth.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.0925 and 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The pair got under pressure after the latest UK releases: service PMI for February fell to 52.7 from 55.6 against the forecast of 55.1. This is the minimum value in nearly three years and is another sign that the UK economy is not in great shape. If this tendency is continued the Bank of England may indeed have to think about the economy stimulation. However, the pound negative reaction was short-lived due to the unstable dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4240 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4320 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that the negative interest rates policy was not intended to affect the Forex market. The demand for the safe haven yen weakened as oil prices recovered on Friday and remained over $34, as concerns over global oversupply seemed to have waned.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 114.60 and 115.40.



Franc

General overview

The growth of the Swiss economy in Q4 exceeded forecasts due to internal costs. Consequently, the country managed to overcome the consequences of export volume decrease as a result of the franc increased. Swiss GDP grew by 0.4% after a decline of 0.1% in the third quarter. This result was the highest for the year, and exceeded economists’ forecasts who had expected an increase of 0.2%.

The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Market attention last week was directed to the long-awaited report on the US labor market, that had shown a positive increase. However despite such a strong result, the dollar weakened against the European currencies, showing a short-term positive reaction. This was because the market paid considerable attention to hourly earnings index which were very disappointing. After January growth of 0.5% the indicator went to the negative territory, reaching -0.2% vs. expected + 0.2%. In spite of the still favorable labor market conditions, the inflation at the consumer level can not let the Federal Reserve tighten the monetary policy in the foreseeable future.

In economic news, Germany published factory orders (-0,1% against the forecasted -0,3%) and Eurozone revealed Sentix investor confidence (5,5 against the forecasted 8,0). The ECB meeting is the key event of this week. We expect the ECB to expand its stimulus to support the economy of the region. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD strengthened.

Despite the "black gold" growth the British currency growth slowed down anyway. The slow down may be a signal for investors to begin taking profit on long positions. The pair GBP/USD showed a strong growth by the end of the trades on Monday.

The pair USD/JPY continues the trades in a flat.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The dollar failed to develop a bullish impulse. When the market drew attention to the labor market report traders stopped buying the dollar and began selling it. The euro got some support from conversations about the deposit rate decrease and the two-tier commission introduction.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The service sector PMI in the USA and the UK is hard to ignore: PMI differential for February shifted in favor of the United States. On the other hand, the same differential was in favor of the United Kingdom a month earlier. The service sector was not chosen by chance - this sector is the basis of the GDP for both economies.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4320, the next one is 1.4400



Yen

General overview

The pair remained in the range despite the increased volatility in the market amid the controversial US labor market report. BOJ’s governor said that the strong yen was not the main reason for the core inflation weakness. The governor added that the negative interest rates were not planned to influence the currency market.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 113.80. If the price falls it will get to 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yen showed a growth against the dollar and the euro when the weak Chinese data revived fears about Chinese economy slowdown. This data caused demand stimulation for refuge currencies. The official data showed that the volume of Chinese exports fell on an annual basis in February by 25.4% to 126.1 million against the forecasted decline by 12.5%. The volume of imports fell by 13.8% year over year, slowing from 18.8% in January. On Tuesday, the Japanese data showed that the GDP had fallen by 1.1% in the last quarter of 2015, being revised from 1.4%.
The head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney spoke about the financial costs and benefits of Great Britain membership in the EU. The UK released the 2nd estimate of Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter. This indicator (seasonally corrected) was 0.3% compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter. Experts had expected a growth rate for the last quarter by 0.3%. We expected the French trade balance with a slight improvement. The euro remained under pressure amid high expectations that the ECB will launch additional monetary policy easing.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

This week ECB meeting is the key event. The regulator is expected to increase the negative rate and will announce additional measures to stimulate the economy. Industrial production in Germany for January supported the euro. The index came in better than it was expected. The index rose by 3.3% against the expected 0.5% after falling 0.3% in December. This is the most significant growth rate since November, 2014.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The euro reached the target of 1.1050. If the pair stays above the level the growth will be continued to 1.1150. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The GBP/USD strengthened amid a weakening of the dollar. We believe that the Bank of England may still raise the rate in Q4. Meanwhile, the US dollar came under pressure as expectations of an early interest rates increase weakened when the market got another portion of the weak statistics from China.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to long with the target of 1.4320. The second growth target is the level of 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

Though Japan published a moderate positive macroeconomic data the traders' sentiment was marred by the Chinese statistics. Japan's GDP for the 4th quarter was revised from -0.4% to -0.3% in the final assessment. There was -1.1% versus the previous -1.4% in the annual assessment. Capital expenditures in GDP increased from 1.4% to 1.5%. Consumer spending showed weak results, the index showed a decline by 0.9% against the forecast of -0.8%.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We remain bullish on the pair. Our first target is 112.20. Our second target is the level of 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

10.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

This week is poor with news. There is one important exception: the ECB meeting on Thursday, March 10. The ECB President Draghi has repeatedly made it clear that the ECB is ready to support the economic growth of the Eurozone by their actions. The euro was effected by expectations that the European Central Bank was likely to soften the monetary policy again this week. The ECB is expected to cut the rates further into negative territory on Thursday.

Manufacturing Production in the UK increased in January by 0.7%, vs the expectations of 0.2%, as well as the decline in the month before by 0.3%. In annual terms, Manufacturing Production fell by 0.1%, although we expected a decrease by 0.7%. Pound remained under pressure amid uncertainty about the Brexit results.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

We expect that the ECB to cut the rates further into the negative territory. In addition, investors predict that the Bank will expand its asset purchase program in an effort to overcome consistently low inflation levels in the Euro area. Meanwhile, the German's government bonds showed growth relative to their counterparts (the US and the UK) that will support the demand for the euro.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The euro reached the target of 1.1050 and bounced downwards. If the pair break the level again the growth will be continued to 1.1150. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

According to the National Statistics Office Industrial Production for February grew for the first time in three months. The index showed growth by 0.3% on a monthly basis after a decline by 1.1% in December. The increase was the first in three months and the most significant in five months. However, economists had expected a growth rate of 0.4%. Meanwhile, Manufacturing Production increased by 0.7%, the forecast was 0.2%.
The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to long with the target of 1.4320. The second growth target is the level of 1.4400. If the pair does not break the resistance of 1.4240 in may bounce downwards to 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Weak Chinese economic data caused the outflow of capital from the "risky assets", which is a positive factor for the yen. The debt market showed a growing optimism in regard to the Japanese assets: the yield differential of US and Japanese government bonds reduced which may support the demand for the yen.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We remain bearish on the pair. Our first target is 112.20. Our second target is the level of 111.40. The pair will strive to reach the level 114.60 if it grows.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The single European currency was in the spotlight on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) had to step up its measures to support the economy in a low inflation environment. The Bank's decision regarding monetary policy, and Mario Draghi's press conference were the main news of the day.

The ECB decided to mitigate the monetary policy, still the regulator made it clear that the new rate cuts probably would not happen. The ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points as it was expected.

Germany published Trade Balance which came in at 18,9B compared to 20,3B the previous month. These data was revised upwards to 18,8B. Experts expected a growth rate for the last month to 19,6B.

According to the British macroeconomic statistics the Bank of England is not inclined to raise the interest rates. It is worth mentioning that the UK shall hold a referendum on the UK exit from the EU in a few months. It also put pressure on the British pound. The recent growth is considered as a correction from a seven-year low.

As for the Japanese currency, it came under pressure amid risks rising when China's Consumer Price Index came in better than expected. Meanwhile, the US has published Initial Jobless Claims. Economists had expected a decline from 277K to 275K. The index showed 259K.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting on monetary policy was the main event yesterday. The deflation threat again stands over the Eurozone economy. The euro area showed a CPI decline by 0.2% in annual terms at the end of February. The regulator decreased the rate that may support the pair in a short-term.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect a bounce downwards to the level 1.1050 after which the pair shall return to the north direction. The growth targets are 1.1260 and 1.1350.



Pound

General overview

Housing Price Balance rose less than expected last month. The index showed 50% compared with 48% in the previous month. These data were revised downward to 49%. Experts had expected a growth rate to 51% for the last month. According to the British Prime Minister David Cameron the country's exit from the European Union would put pressure on the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The growth was continued. The main short-term target is the level of 1.4400. Shall the price consolidate over that level the growth shall be continued to 1.4560 – 1.4600.



Yen

General overview

Minister of Finance, Taro Aso is afraid that the Japanese economy may slip back into a deflation. Taro Aso said that the sales tax raising was the inevitable path for the Japanese economy. According to him the government is already preparing for this step. Meanwhile, the United States published Initial Jobless Claims where the data came in worse than it was expected. We expected a decline to 275K, still the index showed a decline to 259K.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Though the pair made a strong bearish candle yesterday still its future direction had not been set. If the pair breaks and consolidates below 111.40 the pair may go deep further. As an alternative scenario the pair breaks the level of 114.60 and keeps growing further.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The ECB announced a mitigation program: the deposit rate was reduced from -0.3% to -0.4%, the base rate of 0.05% was lowered to zero (0.00%), the program redemption of assets increased from 60 billion to 80 billion per month. Now any investment-grade bonds, including corporate ones will be redeemed. The ECB adopted a new four-year program targeted to concessional loans (TLTRO) at zero percent.

Consumer prices in Germany remained unchanged in February compared with a year ago rate. The consumer price index remained unchanged after rising by 0.5 percent in January and by 0.3 percent in December. Consumer prices rose by 0.4 percent on a monthly basis. The index partly reversed the 0.8 percent decline in January. It was the highest inflation rate since March 2015.

Trade balance in the UK for the last month increased, contrary to out expectations. The index showed -10,29B compared to -10,45B in the previous month. These data were revised downward to -9,92B. Experts expected the index to decline over the past month to -10,30B.

The USA published Export Price Index for February. The index was expected to fall by 0.7% m / m. The index showed -6.0%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB delivered its verdict and the monetary authorities' decision surprised the market. The discount rate was reduced to 0%, the QE program was immediately increased to 20 billion. The ECB significantly lowered the inflation forecast for this year from 1% to 0.1%. The GDP estimates for the period of 2016-2018 were also revised. Monetary authorities noted inflationary pressure contraction, however, they rejected the possible threat of deflation.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We support the growth idea. The first target is the level of 1.1260. Breaking of 1.1260 shall open the way to 1.1350. We still do not exclude the correction to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

According to the UK National Statistics Office the country's trade deficit (seasonally corrected) narrowed up to £10.29 billion from £ 10,45 billion in December. The data for the previous month was revised upwards to £9.92 billion. Economists had forecasted that the trade deficit in January amounted £ 10,3 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

Our first target – 1.4400 is about to be reached. Shall the pair break it and consolidates above it the northern movement shall be continued to 1.4560. We do not exclude the correction to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Reduced Large Manufacturing index had a negative impact on the yen. The index fell to -7.9% from the previous value of 3.8% (in the first quarter). Analysts had expected the index to rise to 4.2%. According to the Ministry of Finance the major Japanese manufacturers' sentiment sharply worsened in January-March when the economy had lost an impulse in the beginning of the year.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

While the pair is in the Ichimoku cloud its future direction is not determined. If the pair breaks and consolidates below 111.40 the pair may go deep further. As an alternative scenario the pair breaks the level of 114.60 and keeps growing further.



Franc

General overview

No important macroeconomic statistics was published last Friday. The course of trading was determined by the world's leading stock exchanges. Meanwhile, the US dollar found a support when the US Labor Department published Initial Jobless Claims. The index fell by 18,000 to 259,000 from 277,000 in the previous week. Analysts had expected a decrease of 2,000 to 275,000.

The first support resides at 0.9800, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9880, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to short. The first sell target is the level of 0.9800. Having broken this level the pair shall go deeper to 0.9750.


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Central Banks will be the focus of our attention this week. The BOJ, the Fed and the Bank of England shall announce their verdict. Even though we do not expect surprises, the banks' statements can still cause volatility. The Fed's possible statements will be the main driver in the beginning of the week.

Last week, the ECB President M. Draghi's statement about the absence of need for new measures provoked risk aversion and had pressured the dollar. However, traders managed to focus on new large-scale ECB’s incentives which increased the demand for the dollar at the end of the trading week. The rates will remain at the current or lower levels until the target inflation level is reached, according to Liikanen's words (ECB representative), which added some optimism. That brought the market some calmness, as well as giving the investors the hope that the European regulator had further plans. The pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the trades on Monday.

The UK total trade deficit narrowed to £ -3.459 billion, even this favorable data made no impression on the GBP/USD, and did not help the price to grow. Still if the dollar came under a wave of selling, the pound strengthened. However the trades on the pair pound/dollar closeв with a decrease on Monday.

The pair USD/JPY continues the trades in a flat.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro got under pressure amid growing interest to the risky assets. At the same time the USA statistics had no impact on the pair’s dynamics. Import Prices into the United States for February had been showing the 18th month falling in a row. This time the index decreased by 0.3% vs. the forecast of -0.5%. Despite the fact that the index was above expectations and the fact that prices remained in negative territory, did not support the dollar.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925.



Pound

General overview

Brexit Risks will keep pressuring the pair. This week we will see whether revenues are growing, as the market expected. The budget is likely to be weak key event and we wait for Bank of England's comments regarding service sector.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4240 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The BoJ’s decision on the interest rate; its monetary policy comments and data on the monetary base annual growth will be the focus of our attention today. We did not expect any change in the rate, the regulator left it on the same level - minus 0.1%.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 114.60. If the price falls it will get to 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened against the European currencies, still it was unable to continue the recovery against the yen. The yen had strengthened its position with a hope that the BoJ would remain inactive in its further steps.

The US published a block of statistics: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (0,62 against the forecasted -10,00), Retail Sales (-0,1% against the forecasted -0,2%), Producer Price Index (at the forecasted -0,2%), Business Inventories (0,1% against the forecasted -0,1%), House Price Index (58 against the forecasted 59). The Retail Sales report was the focus of our attention. The index will help traders to form expectations about the Fed's decision on Wednesday.

The yesterday’s growth of the euro put many traders into a dead end. We do not know whether there was a strong demand for the euro, or an attempt to drive the market at high levels to sell it further at attractive prices. We believe that we will receive an answer today when the FOMC meeting will determine the trend of the pair. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly strengthened.

The British currency showed a mixed background. On the one hand, the UK government bonds yield increased in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. On the other hand, traders fixated profit and closed "black gold" long positions after the four-week growth which played into the sellers’ hands. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease.

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan's decision to keep the interest rates without changes. The regulator lowered the assessment of the economic situation in the country. The BoJ kept the interest rates on deposits of some commercial banks to -0.1%. The regulator left the amount of asset purchases unchanged at 80 trillion yen a year. The pair USD/JPY fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro did not get a support even when favorable data from the euro zone was published. Industrial Production for January increased by 2.8% after a decrease by 1.3% a month earlier. The index exceeded the forecast of + 0.9% and reached the highest value since 2009. The monthly indicator also showed a significant growth by 2.1% against the expected 1.5% and a fall of 1.0% in December. The coming Fed’s meeting returned interest to the dollar.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1050 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0925 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell when traders began buying the dollar. The main drivers for the pair GBP/USD were the coming Fed’s and the Bank of England’s meetings. Even though we do not expect any action from the regulator the market can become volatile if we get Mark Carney’s negative comments regarding the state of the UK economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4080 and 1.4000 soon.



Yen

General overview

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged as expected. The Bank estimates the economic impact of its January decision to lower the rate to negative values. This decision did not weaken the yen, some of traders still believe that the Bank of Japan’s mitigation measures lost its effectiveness. Now the Federal Reserve’s meeting is a focus of traders’ attention.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 113.80 for a steady growth. The sellers need to break below 113.00 for a steady decrease.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

17.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The main reasons for the risk aversion were: concerns about the American regulator’s aggressive actions, the Bank of Japan’s inactivity at the last its meeting, the decline of oil prices and renewed talk of a British exit from the EU.

The market did not expect any change of rates from the Federal Reserve and all investors' attention was focused on the Janet Yellen’s press conference. As we expected Janet Yellen’s comments were the same as before. According to the regulator the monetary authorities will closely monitor incoming macroeconomic data and if the regulator sees inflation and the labor market positive tendency the FED will raise the rates. Yellen did not announce the date of the next rate hike, and noted that the Federal Reserve's achievement should require a lower pace of rate increase. The pair euro/dollar increased.

The UK published 2 important releases: The unemployment rate for January (the previous value was -5.1%, the forecast was 5.1%) came in at the forecasted level, and Average Earnings including Bonus for January (the previous value was 1.9%, the forecast was 2.0%) came in at the level 2,1%. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a growth.

We expected the USD/JPY to exit the flat soon, and this exit can be very volatile. Japan does not need a strong yen as Japan’s economy keeps showing slowdown. At the same time, the strong dollar is not welcome factor for the US Federal Reserve, as the strong dollar negatively affects US exporters. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen sharply fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

By the end of the trades the euro sharply strengthened. Earlier the euro remained under pressure before Federal Reserve’s meeting results publication. The regulator postponed the second rate hike. The government bonds yields differential (the United States and Germany) decreased, showing a lack of interest to US assets. The USA retail sales pointed to the “bullish” sentiment growth. The volume of trade decreased by 0.1%, in line with the consensus forecast.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.350 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom government bonds yields decreased in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of British assets. The pound got under pressure amid a general escape from the risky assets and a new wave of concerns regarding the UK's exit the EU. In addition, the pound was vulnerable amid the divergence between the Fed's monetary policy rates and the Bank of England’s. However by the end of the trades the pair showed a growth. On Thursday the attention of traders will be focused on the British Central Bank meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.4240 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The pair tried to strengthen after the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave the current monetary policy unchanged. However, the pair showed a reversal and the price steadily went down. The US published a consumer price index for February on the level of 0,3% m/m (the previous value was 0,0% m/m, the forecast was 0,2% m/m).

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 112.20, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened while waiting for the Fed decisions. However, the dollar sharply turned around and had fallen across the market after the meeting.

As expected, the Fed left the interest rates unchanged, in the range of 0.25% - 0.50%. Still it has plans to make two rate increases instead of four in the current year. The GDP forecast for 2016 was revised downwards to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. Even if the FOMC raises the interest rates only twice this year, the yield differential of USA government bonds shall expand and investors will have no choice but to buy dollars. Moreover, the "risk appetite" increase will put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a growth.

The Bank of England meeting results announcement was the key event of Thursday. The UK 10-year government bonds yield declined by 21 basis points since the last meeting of the monetary regulator, indicating a decline in inflation expectations. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged. The pair pound/dollar strengthened on the Thursday trades.

The market again began taking into account the different direction of the monetary policies of the BoJ and the Fed. One Central Bank softened its monetary policy against a background of low inflationary expectations. On the contrary, the second one plans to increase the tightening, as the core CPI indicator reached the level of 2.3% in annual terms for the first time since May 2012. The pair dollar/yen fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy in the USA for February rose by 0.3% m / m, exceeding the forecast of + 0.2%. The favorable data increased pressure on the euro, which was hurt amid the risk aversion, and was depressed before the key event: the Fed's decision regarding the monetary policy. After the meeting, the dollar quotes abruptly turned down. The Euro zone published the Consumer Price Index: at the forecasted -0,2%(y/y) and 0,2% (m/m) against the forecasted 0,1% (m/m).

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1350 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

The growth of pessimism regarding the UK economy prespectives contributed to consumer activity reduction: the volume of retail trade grew by 2.28% in 2015, against the growth of 4.31% a year earlier. Given the fact that the Bank of England expects wage growth slowdown in the current year, the negative scenario becomes quite obvious.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4480, 1.4560



Yen

General overview

The United States revealed the Initial Jobless Claims for the last week 265K (the previous value was 259K; the forecast was 267K). The USA also released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey report for the March 12,4 against the forecasted -1,7.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. After the support level of 111.40 breakthrough the pair may go to 110.60.



Franc

General overview

The dollar fell sharply against the Swiss franc after the Fed's decision to leave the monetary policy unchanged. The National Bank of Switzerland hold its meeting on Thursday, as we expected the regulator decided not to change its policy.

The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short. When the price consolidates below the level of 0.9660 it may go to the level 0.9560.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman