"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

Despite positive stock markets sentiment and good USA labor market data the dollar failed to grow. Investors were also pleased with the lack of negative reports from China, where the inflation reached the forecasted level. The Fed's meeting minutes released on Wednesday impacted the dollar as well. The regulator's soft tone was interpreted by traders as another retreat from December's plans.

The ECB minutes pointed that the inflation would remain at low levels. Mario Draghi said the ECB was ready to implement additional monetary policy easing at the next meeting on March 10th. We again got the divergent expectations of a policies change of the two central banks. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased.

The UK published retail sales release for January at the level of 2,3%m/m and 5,2%y/y against the forecasted 0,8%m/m and 3,6%y/y. The positive trend in the labor market allows us to expect retail sales growth compared with the previous month. An increase of wages was recorded in the UK during the period from November to December last year. The pair pound/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades.

The OECD lowered its growth forecast for Japanese GDP to 0.8% from 1.0% in 2016. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar by 5.1% since the beginning of this year. That fact reduced the national products competitiveness in foreign markets. The trade deficit in Japan amounted to 645.9 billion in January, which is 5 times more than in the last quarter of 2015. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Neither the risk sentiment nor the ECB’s meeting minutes did not contribute to the EUR/USD recovery. The regulator in his statement pointed to the downside economic risks increase in comparison with the December’s assessment and again expressed its willingness to use all available instruments if the situation requires. In general, the regulator did not tell anything new. However, the ECB’s signals regarding the further situation worsening in the region could not leave indifferent the euro that started to grow.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1150, the next one is 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

Expectations that the UK and Europe will reach the consensus regarding reforms that could leave the UK in the Eurozone supported the pound. According to the European Commission President Juncker they have chances to reach the agreement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level of 1.4400 we expect the growth to 1.4480. After the support level of 1.4320 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4240 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

According to Mr. Kuroda the regulator is ready to reduce the negative interest rates and to increase the quantitative easing program to achieve the inflation target of 2%, if it is necessary. Thus, the Japanese financial authorities continued its verbal intervention in respect of its national currency, which is expensive for a sustainable economic growth.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 113.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 112.20 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The US published a consumer price index for January at the level of 0,3% m/m (the previous value was 0,2% m/m; the forecast was 0,2% m/m). The consumer price index excluding food and energy prices for January showed 2,2% y/y (the previous value was 2,1% y/y; the forecast was 2,1% y/y).

The first support resides at 0.9859, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows movement a horizontal and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US consumer price index for January rose by 1.4% year over year, beating our expectations about a growth by 1.3%. The core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.2%, also more than expected.

There was a decrease for demand on euro because the composite PMI fell down. The composite PMI is the combination of the manufacturing and services sectors activities, it reached a 13-month low of 53.0 in February from January's value of 53,6. Economists expected 53.3.

British Prime Minister David Cameron said that he had agreed with the European Union on the exceptional conditions of membership within the union. Still, according to his campaign promises, he would held a referendum where the country would decide to stay or not within the EU.

According to the preliminary estimates, the Japanese manufacturing sector index activity for February came in at 50.2, while experts expected it to fall from 52.3 to 52.0 last month.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

EU data chained many investors’ attention. We expect that with its help we will predict future market direction. If the data comes in better than expected, the demand for the single European currency is likely to resume. Still there are risks that the data will be in the dollar’s favor.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued. The first target is the level 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The British referendum to stay within the EU or to leave it was the key topic yesterday. The referendum is scheduled for June 23, 2016. We noticed that the more this topic is discussed, the more is noticeable differences of opinion in British society.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the support of 1.4080 we expect a decrease to 1.4000. After the resistance level of 1.4240 breakthrough the way to the level of 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

Last Friday yen continued strengthening against the dollar, despite the BoJ head’s comments that the Japanese economy could revive due to the negative rates. Mr. Abe’s statements supported the yen as well. He talked about the importance of increasing the fees to increase expenses. Mr. Abe stressed that the regulator did not have any intention to postpone the increase in sales tax once again.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 113.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 112.20 will be opened.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar started the week with strengthening against its rivals. The US currency and the stock assets grew together amid oil prices rising. The dollar was slowed down a bit by Markit Manufacturing PMI for February that had fallen to its lowest level of 51.0 since October 2012. The previous value was 52.4 and the forecast was 52.3.

The German's GDP in the 4th quarter increased by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, which corresponds to the growth rate in the 3rd quarter. This figure confirmed the preliminary assessment. Thus, the GDP growth rate amounted to 1.1% in annual terms. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly strengthened.

The GBPUSD fell and the reason of its fall was the potential Brexit. The aggressive pound selling was Mayor of London Boris Johnson's statements, where he supported the British exit from the EU. The Prime Minister David Cameron confirmed the holding of a referendum on 23rd of June this year. In light of these developments Citibank raised its estimate of the Brexit probability up to 30-40% from 20-30% previously. The pair GBP/USD sharply fell to the new minimums.

The Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday that he saw no direct connection between the monetary base increase and the inflation expectations. Still we believe that Kuroda overestimated the impact of monetary policy major changes on public opinion. The pair USD/JPY is consolidating.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

German’s Business Climate for February has worsened for the third month in a row. The index fell to 105.7 from 107.3 in January, reaching the lowest level since December 2014. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 106.7. Expectations index for February dropped to 98.8, that was the lowest level since December 2012. The index fell from a revised downward value of 102.3 for January.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0800 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell to a six-year low against the dollar on Monday as concerns over a possible exit of Britain from the European Union (EU), known as "Brexit" were still strong. Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, performed on Tuesday. He noted that the current account balance was kept in a high deficit. At the same time, domestic demand remained positive. Mark Carney stressed that the regulator might lower the rate or increase the volume of asset purchases.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.3920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4160.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

We do not exclude the downward movement will be continued. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4000 and 1.3920.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened against other major currencies on Tuesday. The yen became popular when oil prices fell again and caused the shares decline. The USA published Existing Home Sales (0,8% against the forecasted 0,9%), Existing Home Sales Change (5,47M against the forecasted 5,32M) and Consumer Confidence (92,2 against the forecasted 97,0) reports.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 113.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 113.80 will be opened after this breakthrough. The sellers need to break below 111.40 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

Tuesday was marked by the dollar strengthening against all European currencies. The dollar grew despite the sentiment drop of global investors. The USA published Markit Services PMI (49,8 against the forecasted 53,5), Markit PMI Composite (50.1 against the previous 53.2) and New Home Sales (494K against the forecasted 520K) reports.

The Eurozone did not publish important news, and therefore traders' attention was entirely directed to the stock indices. The pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened by the end of the trades.

The UK released BBA Mortgage Approvals (47,5K against the forecasted 45,5K) and CBI Distributive Trades Survey for February. (10 against the forecasted 12) In addition, the pound depends on news about Brexit now. The survey results before the referendum may lead to increase volatility of GBP/USD. The pair pound/dollar continued the downward movement.

The Bank of Japan governor statements supported the yen. According to Kuroda the accelerating pump of money into the economy will not increase expectations of future price increase. The current monetary policy has limits and it can revive the economic growth just to some extant. The market became more caution after China's decision to set a lower rate for the yuan, although most traders expected it to remain unchanged during the finance ministers and central bank governors meeting ("Big Twenty") this week. The pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro has weakened this week amid concerns that Brexit may impact the Eurozone.

According to the ECB representative Mr. Weidmann, the long uncertainty about that topic might affect the global economy. He also said that ignoring the effects of soft monetary policy might become a problem. Weidmann stressed that the economic outlook was not as bad as it seemed. He noted that a low inflation was a problem for the monetary policy and the gradual Eurozone recovery should be continued this year and the next one.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The UK published CBI Distributive Trades Survey on Wednesday (10 against the forecasted 12). The report came in at 10 with the forecast of 12. Traders will focus their attention on the UK GDP data on Thursday. Traders expect that the second GDP estimate for the 4th quarter will remain at 0.5% q/q and 1.9% y/y. Weak GDP figures may trigger pound selling.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.3840. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.4080.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.4000, 1.4080. If the price falls it will get to 1.3920 and 1.3840.



Yen

General overview

This month the yen has risen relative to all major currencies amid stock and commodity markets falling that increased demand for the "safe haven" currencies.

High demand for the yen in anticipation of the end of the month, as well as expectations that the Japanese Central Bank will not conduct any intervention before the G20 meeting, scheduled for the end of this week, could further strengthen the Japanese currency.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 112.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, [b][color=#0000FF]Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The weak US data gave the euro strength by pushing the dollar down. According to the preliminary data, Markit Services PMI for February reached the level of 49.8 against the forecast of 53.5 and the previous value of 53.2. Meanwhile, the primary housing market sales fell by 9.2% against the expected slow decline to -4.4%. The United States published Initial Jobless Claims (272000 against the forecasted 270000), Housing Prices (0,4% m/m against the forecasted 0,5% m/m), Orders for durable goods (1,8% m/m against the forecasted 0,2% m/m) reports.

The demand decreased on euro amid: oil prices falling, fears of China's banking system corruption, as well as talking about Brexit. In the same time, British possible exit from the EU sent the pound to multi-year lows, pressing the euro as well. Traders did not use the euro as a safe haven due to speculation about the potential breaking of the European Union after the UK leaving the alliance. Only by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the possible UK exit from the EU. The market was volatile in anticipation of the UK GDP data for Q4. Traders expected a growth by 0.5%. In fact, the second GDP estimate came in at 0.5% q/q and + 1.9% y/y. The pair pound/dollar is consolidating.

The yen strengthened again in a new wave of risky assets sales this week. However the dollar showed a growth against the yen on Tuesday’s trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro got under new wave of sales after Weidmann's statements. According to the ECB representative the inflation may not reach the target level of 1% in 2016 due to the increased downside risks. Consumer Price Index for the last month remained unchanged. According to the report, prepared by Eurostat, the rate (seasonally corrected) was 1.0% compared with 1.0% in the previous month, that was in the line with expectations.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.3670 will be opened after this breakthrough. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0925 and 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The negative dynamics of the British currency happened due to several reasons, among them were risk aversion from possible Bank of England's policy softening, as well as concerns over the upcoming referendum (23rd June), where the country would decide the fate of Great Britain in the EU. The UK published Index of Services for December. The Index came in at the forecasted level of 0,7%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.3840. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.4080.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.3920 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.3840 will be opened. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4000, 1.4080.



Yen

General overview

The pair tried to develop an upward correction after Kuroda's statements. The Bank Governor hinted that they might expand the QQE program. Japan relies on exports, so it needs a weak Yen to survive.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 113.00, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 113.80.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened its position against the US dollar after another batch of weak economic data. Stock indices fall and the increased demand for safe-haven assets played they role as well. Switzerland published Industrial Production for Q4, the indicator came in at -7.7% y/y, the previous value was -6.7% y/y in Q3.

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US GDP for the fourth quarter was the key event last Friday (1,0% against the forecasted 0,4%). Earlier, the dollar lost ground, despite the durable goods orders positive release. The index jumped by 1.8% after falling by 1.2% in December.

Last Friday the G20 summit started its work in Shanghai. The problems with China, monetary policies coordination as well as world economy stimulation will be discussed in the meeting.

In economic news, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said in his speech that the space for monetary policy seems to be exhausted. According to him it was necessary to continue applying the financial regulation and to make the market less volatile. He also supported the idea to continue structural reforms. The pair euro/dollar sharply fell.

The main drivers for the pair GBP/USD were: Brexit and the British regulator's current monetary position. The pound reached seven-year lows last week. The currency weakening happened after some new forecasts, according to which the British currency might fall if the British citizens would vote for the country's exit from the EU in June. According to the opinion polls 43% of the population insisted on the necessity of such a decision. After a slight growth the pair pound/dollar decreased to new minimums on Friday.

The Bank of Japan continues to deny its plan to lower the current exchange rate. The BOJ governor Kuroda said that they did not plan to soften the monetary policy to weaken the yen. According to Mr. Kiuchi from the Board of Directors: an intervention will be an option if the market becomes volatile. The pair dollar/yen strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Euro ignored Eurozone inflation release. The inflation slowed down to + 0.4% from + 0.3%. Base CPI showed a drop of 1.7% versus + 0.3% of the previous month. The received data increased the chances that the European Central Bank would introduce additional measures to stimulate the economy at its next meeting in March. That might cause the euro decrease.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0800 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The UK GDP report coincided with the forecasts and provoked the pound weakening. The economy grew by 1.9% and 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The volume of business investment fell by 2.1% after a growth of 1.2% previously.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3840, the next one is at 1.3760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.4000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.3840, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.3760.



Yen

General overview

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar when it became known that the inflation growth in Japan slowed down in January. The slow inflation points to the obvious regulator's problems as it could not return the inflation to the target level of 2%. Also the positive USA GBP report (1,0% against the forecasted 0,4%) became the growth driver.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 114.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 115.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

Dollar strengthened its position despite the fact that the US Initial Jobless Claims showed 272k against the previous value of 270k.

The Fed Representative Williams said the US economy required a soft push forward. He proffered not to hurry with the rates raising, believing that normalization is a gradual process.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The NFP is the most anticipated event of this week. This is the final report, which may force the Federal Reserve to change its mind about the rate hike in March. We will receive ADP report on Wednesday, NFP will be released on Friday.

The euro remained under pressure as the low inflation reminded investors that the ECB was likely to tighten its policy in March. Concerning consumer prices: Germany showed a growth for February and accelerated to 0.4% after falling to 0.8% in January, while other Eurozone countries showed a deflation. The Eurozone presented consumer price index for February. The index showed -0.2% y/y, the forecast was 0.1% y/y. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease.

Brexit theme did not lose its effect on the global financial markets. George Osborne's (the Finance Minister of Great Britain) statement gave a new impulse to panic. Osborne said that the British currency might fall and declared that the country might face serious economic problems if it left the EU. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

The yen became popular after Japan's industrial production report for January publication. The index rose in comparison to the previous month. Industrial production growth was 3.7%, while economists forecasted an increase by only 3.3%. The pair dollar/yen fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro got under pressure due to strong USA reports and disappointing macro data from the euro zone. The consumer confidence level came in at -8.8, we expected -6.7, economic sentiment index reached 103.8 vs. the previous value of 106.7, and service sector indicator fell to 10.6 from 11.5. Such disappointing figures may become another argument in favor of an additional ECB stimulus policy in March that may lead the further euro losses.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0680. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0800, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0680.



Pound

General overview

Pound rebounded upwards from the minimums. The pound was under pressure due to Brexit threat that became a very real and US data that had shown an unexpected rise. The GDP for the 4th quarter was revised upwards to 1.0% (annualized), while the market expected it to decrease from 0.7% to 0.4%. PCE deflator index rose to 1.7% y/y, above expectations and a revised data of 1.5%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3840, the next one is at 1.3760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.4000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 1.3840. If the price grows above the level of 1.3920 it will get to 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Demand for the yen was resumed when industrial production in Japan for January rose compared with the previous month rate. Industrial production growth was 3.7%, while economists forecasted an increase by only 3.3%. Meanwhile, the US published Pending Home Sales. The index came in at - 2.5% versus expected 0.5%.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 112.20 and 111.40. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 113.00 and 113.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US published Manufacturing PMI for February, the index came in at 49.5 when the forecast was 48.5.

The escape from "risky" assets had a positive impact on the euro as a funding currency. Previously, the euro came under wave of sales when consumer prices report came in negative. The inflation index amounted 0.2% against the expected 0.0%. Base CPI noticeably slowed down as well to + 0.7% from + 1.0%. The CPI results significantly increased the chances that ECB would launch more aggressive easing policy in March. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

We would pay attention for UK manufacturing sector PMI from Markit. Leading indicators pointed to negative data outcome. Industrial orders balance, according to the CBI, had been declining for ten consecutive months - the index recorded a maximum of the last three months in February. The PMI came in at the level of 50,8 against the forecasted 52,2. However the pair GBP/USD slightly strengthened.

Japan shall publish household spending for January, which had supported the US currency. The index came in at -3.1% y/y vs. the previous -4.4% y/y and the forecast of -2.5% y/y. The pair USD/JPY sharply grew.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair failed to take advantage of the widespread dollar weakening amid the weak USA data. Pending Home Sales unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in two years (2.5% vs. the forecast of + 0.5%). The European Union released Manufacturing PMI from Markit in Germany for February. The forecast was 50.2, the index came in at 50.5. Unemployment Change release in Germany coincided with the forecast. The index showed -10K.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0680. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0680.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom published the manufacturing PMI for February: 50,8 (the forecast was 52.3). The previous statistics from the UK was quite positive: Mortgage Approvals exceeded the forecasts, having reached 74,581 against the previous 71,335. Meanwhile, Consumer Credit for January amounted £ 1.564 billion against the expected 1,300 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.3840. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.4080.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential targets are 1.4000 and 1.4050. If the price falls it will get to 1.3920 and 1.3840.



Yen

General overview

The pair dollar/yen sharply grew. Earlier Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index decline caused a slight USD/JPY's drop. We believe that the dollar won't significantly affect the market before ADP release, but even then traders may want to wait for Services PMI from Markit before formulating their expectations about NFP.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 114.60 and 115.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The United States published ADP report for February on the level of 214000 (the previous value was reviewed from 205K to 193K; the forecast was 190K).

There was a growth of quotations cuased by: manufacturing PMI moderate positive data from Markit as well as, the unemployment rate decrease to 10.3% in the eurozone. The unemployment in Eurozone reached its lowest level since September 2011, still it was too far to the pre-crisis levels in 2008. In the debt market: Germany10-year government bond yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK), which reduced the attractiveness of European assets. However it was a short-term growth and the pair EUR/USD fell by the end of the trades.

We should pay attention to construction PMI in the UK that came in at the level of 54,2 that is worse then forecasted 55,5. GDP in this sector showed a reduction in the second half of 2015, after a prolonged rapid growth. The possibility of Great Britain to exit the EU is also a negative factor for the construction sector. If the UK leaves the union, then London real estate market may show stagnation. Nevertheless the pair GBP/USD sharply increased.

The USD/JPY showed some growth due to few factors. The negative release of Japan's household spending, that put "bears" in an awkward position. In addition to private consumption as the basis of the Japanese GDP, and finally "risk appetite" growth which was also a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. Only by the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Euro could not strengthen its position after the positive Eurozone macro reports. Eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since August 2011 (10.3%) compared to the forecast and the previous value of 10.4%. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI from Markit rose to 51.2 from 51.0. Apparently, the market finally decided what to expect from the upcoming ECB meeting after consumer price deflation zone release and the euro remained indifferent to fresh figures.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0680. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0800 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0680 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

Britain published construction sector PMI: 54,2 that is lower then the forecasted 55,5. The pound did not receive support from the black gold market positive dynamics. The financial markets showed a steady demand for "risk assets", which allowed the British currency to finish the day in the "green zone".

The price is finding the first support at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.3920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4160.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4080 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4160 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

By the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY fell after a growth. The market has not decided yet what to do with the Bank of China's decision to reduce reserve requirements for banks. The yen was the main outsider having lost all points scored against the dollar.

The yen came under influence of the USA ADP report on Wednesday. The data came in at the level of 214K against the forecasted 189K.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 113.80, 114.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The United States published Initial Jobless Claims (278000 against the forecasted 271000) and Non-Manufacturing PMI for February (the data came in at the level of 53.4 the previous value was 53.5, the forecast was 53.2). Today traders' attention will be focused on NFP.

The differential yields on US and German government bonds reduced, which increased the investment attractiveness in European assets. This in return would support the demand for euro. On the other hand, the risk "assets" are still in demand in the financial markets, which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a strong growth.

The UK published Services PMI from Markit for February. The release came in at the level of 52.7, the previous value was 55.6, the forecast was 55.1. Firstly, the GDP grew by 0.65%, with an overall economic growth of 0.5% in the services sector in the fourth quarter of 2015. Secondly, the labor market positive dynamics shall increase optimism among purchasing managers in this sector. The pair pond/dollar increased.

The published APD report justified our positive expectations. The final figure was 214 000, that is the first positive sign for Friday's data on the Non-Farm. Japan upset investors with its latest releases having published weak personal consumption report. The yields differential on US and Japanese government bonds has been expanding the last four trading days in a row, which supported the demand for the dollar. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened on the Thursday’s trades. Earlier the euro was under pressure after weak manufacturing and inflation data in the Eurozone. The latest releases raised expectations that ECB would launch additional easing measures at the upcoming meeting.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBPUSD received support amid the growing interest to the risky assets and the EURGBP fall.

The 10-year UK government bonds yield increased in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany), which increased the investments attractiveness in British assets.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first targets are the levels of 1.4240 and 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The dollar was supported by ADP employment report. The report showed a growth by 214,000 last month, surpassing the expectations for an increase by 190,000. Today we will receive the NFP which will become the main driver for the market.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 113.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 112.20.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar. The dollar leveled its achievements when the Fed’s "Beige Book" showed that the economic activity continued to expand in most districts: growth rates significantly vary from weak to strong, and the labor market conditions continue to improve.

The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman