"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The USA labor market report for January was the main last Friday event. Traders expected the growth slow down to 190 000 from 292 000. However the data came in at the level of 151 000.

Traders have received the European Commission report. The GDP and the inflation short-term forecasts in the Eurozone dropped to 1.7% and 0.5% respectively. The previous inflation assessment was at the level of 1%. That is not very good news for the euro. However, the market is already tuned in to the March ECB policy easing, so the latest Eurozone figures do not bother the EURUSD more than US statistics which has recently been showing not inspiring data and puts threat on the Fed's ambitious plans. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD showed a decrease.

The Bank of England lowered its GDP forecasts for 2016 and 2017. The short-term inflation expectations have been reduced amid the low energy prices and the average earnings moderate growth. The regulator has left the monetary policy rate unchanged. All MPC members voted to keep the policy unchanged. According to Carney it is not the time to raise the rates now; still he made it clear that the borrowing costs raise would be the next step in the monetary policy. The oil market upward trend positively impacted the British currency quotations. Nevertheless the trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease.

The US and Japanese differential government bond yields are reduced which reduces the investing attractiveness in US assets. The pair USD/JPY was traded in a side corridor.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Germany published the production orders latest figures: -0,7% against the forecasted -0,5%. Earlier, neither the European Commission pessimistic forecasts nor the lack of risk aversion stopped the single currency from growing. The US data supported the euro as well. The Factory orders fell by 2.9% from the November value of -0.7%, the NFP grew by 3.0% against the forecast of -1.8%.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1050, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.0925.



Pound

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield is increasing against their counterparts from the United States and Germany which increases the investments attractiveness in the British assets. Last week traders’ attention was directed to the Bank of England. Still the pound did not react to the regulator’s meeting as we anticipated.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

Last week trading was under the sign of the dollar weakness which continued to lose ground on all front. It looks like the dollar has to contend with the new reality where there is no place for four rates rises as Fed had predicted in December. Besides the NFP, the USA also showed trade balance (-43,36B against the forecasted -43,00B) and the consumer lending data ( 21,27B against the forecasted 16,00B).

The first support resides at 116.20, the next is at 115.40. The first resistance stands at 117.00, the next one is at 117.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 117.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 117.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

Analysts looked forward to the NFP which had to shed some light on the labor market situation. We expected a growth by 177,000 and the unemployment rate at around 5.0%. The forecast decrease happened due to ISM sub-indices and the NFP growth. The data came in at the level of 151,000 and 4,9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9960. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.0100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

All traders' attention was directed to the USA labor market statistics. Despite the fact that the NFP has not reached even to a modest forecast (it showed 151 000 versus the forecast of 190 000), and the previous value was revised downward, the dollar was able to consolidate its positions.

The US Average Hourly Earnings showed a strong jump of 0.5% from the previous 0.0%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate reached a cyclical low level of 4.9%, having fallen unexpectedly by 5.0%. The wages growth rate is crucial for the Fed, pointing to the inflation acceleration prospects that is why the dollar ignored the weak NFP and focused on the Hourly Earnings results. The EU did not present any significant data. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased.

The Friday's labor market release contributed to the US and UK government bond yield spreads expansion which is traditionally a bearish factor for the British currency. On the other hand, the oil market bulls prefer to long which in its turn positively affects the pound value. However the pair point/dollar rebounded upwards after a decrease.

The Monetary Policy Meeting minutes will be published on February 18th. Meanwhile according to the Bank of Japan chairman the volatility in the world markets have a negative impact on business sentiment. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

This Monday was rather meager at the events. The Eurozone GDP data for Q4 will probably not show signs of growth expansion. According to the forecast the GDP shall increase by 0.3% q/q, like in Q3. The recent data showed the both consumers and the business community recent downward trend, so it is unlikely that the growth will be significantly higher in the 1st quarter.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 1.1260. After fixing above the first target, the level 1.1350 will become the next one



Pound

General overview

The Bank of England surprisingly well responded to the recent volatility increase in the market, despite the potential capital flows weakening to the UK and the financial services sector potential problems.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4480 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.4560 and 1.4630 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese government bonds yield differential expanded. That fact, as usual, increases the investment attractiveness in the US assets and thereby supported the dollar.

The first support resides at 115.40, the next is at 114.60. The first resistance stands at 116.20, the next one is at 117.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 115.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 114.60 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

10.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market got again concerned about the global economy state when the China’s report had indicated the foreign exchange reserves reduction to the 2012 minimum. The oil dynamics did not contribute to the market optimism growing as well having shown the signs of reduction.

The Germany Industrial Production for December 2012 was worth paying our attention. The production orders increased by 1.2%. The forecast was 0.4%. The pair euro/dollar by the end of the trades increased.

The UK National Statistics Office published the trade balance report (the previous value was -10,64B; the forecast was -10,40B; in fact -9,92B). The pound strengthening against the euro is a negative factor for the country exports as it reduces the products competitiveness. According to the British Industry Confederation exporters suffer from excessively high national currency rate. The trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with a growth.

Due to the lack of economic news that could be a driver for the market the traders' attention was entirely focused on the stock market dynamics. The yen was traditionally supported by the risk aversion. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone release pushed the price down - the Sentix Investor Confidence for February has fallen to 6.0 from 9.6 against the forecast which was 7.6. Still a new risk aversion wave limited the euro decline. The dollar sales were also due to the weak USA Labor Market Conditions report where the index fell to 0.4 from 2.9.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1440.




Pound

General overview

The government bonds yield significantly reduced against the US Treasuries and the Germany bonds due to the capital outflow from the British assets. This factor, in its turn, left a negative impact on the Cable. Only by the end of the trades the Sterling slightly strengthened.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the consolidation at the current levels. The downward bounce potential target is 1.4400. If the price grows it will break above 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The debt market 2-year US Treasury bonds yields continue their falling that also deprives support from the dollar. The oil prices drop dragged down the global stock markets, thus supporting the safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and US Treasuries.

The first support resides at 114.60, the next is at 113.80. The first resistance stands at 115.40, the next one is at 116.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 114.60 and 113.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The traders' concerns about the world economy growth slow down in general and the energy sector's fate in particular caused a new wave of stock indices selling. The threat of large slate companies bankruptcy alongside with the Deutsche Bank problems whose shares have fallen to the record lows, discouraged investors from trading with high-risk assets.

The Germany industrial production and trade balance weak data for December once again supported our assumptions that we should not count on the euro significant increase in the medium term. The industrial production volume decreased by 2.2% while it had shown growth of 0.8% in 2015. In this regard, we see a steady negative trend and it is not highly profitable to have a strong euro. The pair EUR/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK published the industrial production release for December. The index came in at -1.1% m/m. The pair GBP/USD quickly left the lows, despite the weaker-than-expected manufacturing industry data. The pair GBP/USD slightly increased.

Janet Yellen speech to Congress is this week key event. Her attitude about the economy state and the monetary policy future shall determine the further prospects of the dollar which has recently weakened. The pair USD/JPY fell by the end of the trades.

According to Janet Yellen there are risks in the US economy which may slow down their plans to increase the interest rates in short-term. The economic China upheavals leave a negative impact on the US economy and the traders' inflation expectations continue declining. The Fed chairman did not talk about the possibility of a later interest rates increase, still the mentioned risks made her tone soft highlighting concerns about the Fed rate hikes this year.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The industrial production in Germany fell by 1.2% against an average forecast of 0.4. Meanwhile, the trade surplus narrowed to 18.8 billion euros from 20.5 billion euros, while exports and imports have fallen by 1.6%. The euro ignores the warning signals from Greece, whose problems may soon again be in the center of our attention.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. After the level of 1.1260 breakthrough the first target is the level 1.3670.



Pound

General overview

We should pay attention to industrial production for December. The PMI positive dynamics allowed counting on the data slightly better than the consensus forecast. Manufacturing index for December came in at -0.2% m/m, -1.7% y/y. The forecast was 0.1% m/m, -1.4% y/y.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4560 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4630 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The debt market dynamics indicates the dollar possible strengthening: the 10-year US and Japanese government bonds yields differential expanded which increases the investing attractiveness to the US assets. Traders followed Janet Yellen comments as her speech could easily reverse the trend, or on the contrary, strengthen it. After this speech the dollar weakened against the yen.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. When the price consolidates below the level of 113.80 it may go to the level 113.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar showed mixed trades against its major rivals. The stock markets have tried to return to a growth, still Janet Yellen's soft comments regarding possible returning to the quantitative easing program, have caused some concerns among investors. The head of the Fed talked about negative interest rates. According to her she does not know any reason the Fed might introduce the negative rates in the nearest future.

In economic news, the leading stock markets showed an upward trend which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. However the pair euro/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades.

The UK industrial production weak report indicates that it is not necessary to count on the pound significant growth. The industrial production volume decreased by 1.79% in the last year fourth quarter compared with the same year third quarter. The pair pound/dollar slightly grew after a decrease.

Yesterday the US published the Initial Jobless Claims for January at the level of 269K (the previous value was 285K; the forecast was 287K). The short positions cutting signals about investors' "risk appetite" growth that traditionally has a negative impact on the yen value as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair dollar/yen fell to the new minimums.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Despite the Janet Yellen's soft comments, she made it clear that the rate hike is still on the agenda, but, as before, it will depend on incoming economic data and the situation in the financial markets. A certain portion of the negative comments for the euro came from Prata, the ECB representative. According to him the regulator may use some instrument to solve problems with liquidity.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150. We don’t exclude that the pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1440.



Pound

General overview

The pair ignored the weak UK statistics. The industrial output fell in January by 1.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y vs. -0.1% and + 1.0% and the previous result at the level of -0.8% and +0.7%, respectively. The NIESR GDP estimate for January was + 0.4% versus the previous result of + 0.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks 1.4480 up it will open the way to the resistance level of 1.4560. If the price fixates below the support 1.4400, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

It is impossible to ignore the rumors that the Bank of Japan is ready, if necessary, to enter the foreign exchange market with some interventions. This turn of events can not be excluded, as the yen has strengthened by 5.2% in February, the price dropped to its lowest level in 12 months.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 112.20 and 113.00. If the price goes to the support level of 111.40 and breaks it the next target will by 110.60.



Franc

General overview

If the FED expects further growth in wages, the real incomes increase will not allow the core inflation to go far below the level of 2%. In this regard, the interest rate may be increased during the current year. However, nobody expects changes in the monetary policy at the next FOMC meeting on March.

The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The first decrease target is the level 0.9660, the next one is 0.9580. We do not exclude the growth to 0.9750 and further to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure last Friday, as concerns about the global economic outlook caused a fall of stock markets. The demand for the safe-haven assets: the yen and the euro, have been increased. Chinese market was closed due to the Chinese New Year celebration.

Japanese Finance Minister made it clear to investors that the rapid Japanese yen growth could lead to the regulator’s intervention. If necessary, the bank will take all the necessary measures to limit the yen’s growth. According to Aso: the exchange rate has been recently showing quite sharp fluctuations that differ from the BoJ’s financial policy.

According to Eurostat the Eurozone GDP (q/q) remained at the same level of 0.3%.

The US retail sales report for January was published on Friday. The forecast was 0.1%, the index came in at 0.2%. The Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for February (in the preliminary estimate) was expected with a growth by 92.6 from 92.0 in January. The index came in less than it was expected having shown 90.7.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Germany’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q4, in line with expectations. The index remained unchanged from the previous quarter. German GDP increased by 2.1% on an annual basis in the last quarter, which was below the expected 2.3%. The 10-year government bonds in Germany showed growth to their counterparts from the US and the UK, which increased the investment attractiveness in European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The decrease targets are remained the same, the levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050. The pair may grow to the resistance level of 1.1440.



Pound

General overview

The Britain Construction PMI rose + 1.5% m/m and 0.5% y/y from -0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y. Housing building showed growth in the UK in Q4: + 4.1% q/q from 5.7% q/q in Q3. Meanwhile, the dollar remains volatile. According to Janet Yellen there was a good reason to believe that the US economy would remain on a path of a moderate growth that would allow the Fed to conduct monetary policy "gradual change".

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The break and consolidation above 1.4480 will open the way to the resistance levels of 1.4630 and 1.4700. After the drop below the support of 1.4400 we may see a decrease to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso warned investors about the Japanese yen rapid growth, saying that the government may take necessary measures if necessary to limit the yen’s growth. A number of banks have raised their forecasts that we may see an intervention by the Japanese Bank soon. The JP Morgan expects the further monetary policy liberalization after the Bank of Japan meeting on March 14-15.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level 117.50. If the price goes to the support level of 111.40 and breaks it the next target will by 110.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

16.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The stock markets sentiment had significantly improved which forced the risky assets to retreat after a recent rally. The oil quotations recovery coupled with the Deutsche Bank news. The bank is planning to buy back bonds for the amount of 5 billions dollars. All these factors supported the demand for the dollar.

No important news were published yesterday. We believe that the euro won't show significant growth this week. The industrial production volume in the euro area decreased by 0.31% at the end of 2015, compared with a growth of 0.47% a year earlier. The strong euro is not in the European industrialists' interests and the ECB certainly understands that. The pair euro/dollar fell on the yesterday’s trades.

The 10-year government bonds yield is increasing in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which increases the investments attractiveness in British assets. In addition, the Brent failing had its positive impact on the British currency as expected. Only by the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly decreased.

Japan had published the Q4 GDP, the report did not show any surprises. The decreased household spending and the negative trade balance indicate an economic growth reduction. The 4th quarter GDP reached the level of 1.4% (y/y) vs. 1.2% (y/y) and 0.4% (q/q) vs. 0.3% (q/q). The pair dollar/yen shows a growth.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair EUR/USD fell at the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the escape from the risky assets alongside with the contradictory Eurozone statistics became the reasons for the pair’s growth. The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% q/q in the fourth quarter, exceeding the forecast. The ECB President Mario Draghi’s performance drew traders’ attention yesterday. According to him the economic recovery is happening at a moderate pace.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1350.



Pound

General overview

The GBPUSD could not hold its positions amid the widespread buying of the dollar. The dollar became so popular after the strong US retail sales. The report had shown that the inflation kept accelerating in the country, as a result the Fed might review its plans about the rates rising. The lack of UK statistics made traders turn their views to the oil dynamics.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened. We don’t exclude that the pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.4480. After breaking 1.4480 the buyers may go to 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

Weak Japanese GDP put pressure on the yen. The strong yen had a negative impact on the Japanese exports. That fact can make the monetary authorities take additional measures.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 114.60 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 113.80, 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

17.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar started the new trading week on a positive note. The US currency purchase supported the positive sentiment for the world stock exchange. Even China's return to the market after long holidays did not spoil that sentiment. The imports and exports volume from China decreased by 18.8% and 11.2%, respectively in January.

The banking sector shares outperformed the market in Europe. Investors' "risk appetite" was growing which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. Germany has published the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment for February. The index showed 1.0 (the previous value was 10.2; the forecast was 3.2). The pair euro/dollar fell.

The UK published the inflation report for January. A strong labor market pointed out that CPI growth (in annual terms) could be a little better than the consensus forecast (0.4%). The unemployment rate for November decreased by 5.1%, while wages increased by 1.02%. However the CPI came in at the forecasted median 0,3%. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

The Japanese negative macroeconomic statistics keeps showing correction. GDP decreased by 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The volume of industrial production has been reducing for the second year in a row and the negative trend accelerated from 1.91% to 2.49% in 2015. The sharp yen's strengthening, that we saw in the beginning of the year, carries additional risks to the Japanese economy. The pair dollar/yen is consolidating after a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The news that Bundesbank lowered its inflation growth forecast for 2016 pressured the euro. The Bundesbank lowered the forecast to + 0.25% from 1.1% amid the cheap oil. Mario Draghi made it clear in his performance that the regulator was ready to revise its policy at the next meeting. He stressed that the monetary policy would remain accommodative for an extended period. Draghi’s soft statements only increased the pressure on the euro.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom published the inflation report for January: Consumer price index came in at 0.8% m/m and 0.3% y/y. Producer Price Index was published as well. The index showed -0.7% m/m and -1.0% y/y.

The oil market kept showing decrease which played into the bears’ hand.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4240 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The strong yen reduced the products competitiveness in foreign markets. The products competitiveness is what the Japanese industry needs most of all now. We believe we can still get a new batch of verbal intervention until the end of the month, which will make bears close short positions. The short positions closure shall contribute to the quotations growth.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 114.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 115.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar purchase dominated despite some weak data from the US. Investors’ sentiment changed to a negative one when the oil prices returned to a decrease, which was characterized by a high volatility, and were the main driver for global markets.

On the one hand, ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey showed a growing pessimism among financial experts. On the other hand, the Fed’s last meeting minutes were published. Traders expected to see a dovish rhetoric of the monetary authorities regarding energy prices falling and global economic growth slowing down. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly decreased.

The British pound recovered after the employment data release. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%, compared with the forecast for a drop to 5.0%. Claimant Count Change fell by 14.8K in January, while the Average Earnings including Bonus increased by 1.9% in December. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades.

This year we have seen high volatility in the financial markets. The last FOMC meeting minutes were published. Traders’ expected the minutes to coincide with the Janet Yellen’s comments in front the US Congress, that the labor market is showing a positive trend. However, the risk significantly increased due to low energy prices and the slowing down of the global growth. According to minutes some leaders are afraid of the US economy slowdown amid China's economic problems. The majority believes that the inflation will rise to 2% in the medium term. The Fed stressed that the date of interest rates rising would depend on the incoming economic data. The pair dollar/yen was trading in the consolidation corridor.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Germany 10-year government bonds were moderately growing in relation to their counterparts from the United States and Germany, which increases the investment attractiveness of European assets. Earlier, Mario Draghi reiterated the regulator’s readiness to continue the soft monetary policy in March.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The consolidation will be continued. The upward bounce potential target are 1.1150. If the price falls it will get to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell after the weak inflation publication in the UK. The base CPI rose by only 1.2% y/y. Meanwhile, the overall inflation rate decreased by 0.8% m/m from the previous of 0.1%. These figures show that the Bank of England will definitely not soon take measures against the price pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4320 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4400 will be opened after this breakthrough. The sellers need to break below 1.4240 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4160 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The US economy again showed unfavorable signals. Contrary to traders’ expectations, Housing Market Index fell from 60 to 58, and Empire State Manufacturing Index showed -16.64 against the forecast of -10.00. The Building Permits report for January was published. The forecast was 1.204M, the index showed 1.202M. Producer Price Index showed 0,1% versus the forecast of -0,2%.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 114.60 and 115.40. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 113.80 and 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs remained volatile without excessive nervousness. The FOMC’s minutes did not spring any surprise. The minutes’ tone was restrained with a pessimistic tone. The regulator pointed at the growing risks concerning the economy, having stressed that the current information was insufficient for a full risk assessment. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for February on the level of 262K (the previous value was 269K; the forecast was 275K).

We noticed some capital flow into "risky assets" this week, which was a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. In the credit markets, the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the USA and the UK) which reduced the investments attractiveness in European assets. The pair euro/dollar decreased.

Britain failed to deliver strong data to the investors from about the labor market. Unemployment and average earnings indicators for December remained at the previous levels. The unemployment level of differential rates in Great Britain and the United States remained the same. The pair pound/dollar fell after a growth.

The appetite for risk kept growing in financial markets which put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The two-day EU summit started on Thursday. We expect to hear some comments regarding the state of the regional economy that can impact the euro dynamics. Besides Eurozone Current Account report some strong USA reports pressured the pair. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy sharply rose by 0.4% in January against the expected growth of 0.1%.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925.



Pound

General overview

We received moderately negative reports on two major macroeconomic indicators this week (inflation and unemployment), which calls into question the further British currency strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.4400. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4240



Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY resumed its decline. Oil Industry Ministers meeting results disappointed the market and provoked "black gold" prices sharp decline. It traditionally supported the yen as a safe-haven.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 113.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 112.20 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The dollar was under pressure after the Fed's soft comments and after the trade balance positive report in Switzerland.

The frank grew after it became known that Switzerland's trade surplus was higher than it had been forecasted, supporting the pair after four days decrease. The trade surplus amounted to 3.51 billion. for January. However by the end of the trades the pair strengthened.

The first support resides at 0.9859, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman