"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Forex currencies showed an uneven trend, this time focusing not only on investors' sentiment and the commodity segment situation. The ECB meeting and the Mario Draghi's press conference has brought some volatility to the market. The regulator's decision was expected and caused no market reaction (the rate was left unchanged), as opposed to words Draghi, who seems determined to prepare traders for the Central Bank policy revision in March, when the economic forecasts are updated. The ECB President has expressed his concern about the inflation low levels and even noted the threat of consumer prices falling below zero this year. Thus, the bank's promise is clear, and now the market is to price the March monetary policy easing program. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The traders' attention was focused on the UK December retail sales. The retail sector growth sales rate made up 4.34% in the first eleven months of 2015. The increase became possible when the labor market showed an upward trend. The UK unemployment rate is now 5.1%, it is the lowest level in 10 years. Although the last year fourth quarter average earnings growth reduced, still it is still higher than a year earlier. The pair pound/dollar slightly decreased after a strong growth.

The United States published the secondary market housing sales report. The Mortgage Bankers Association release pointed to the data output worse than the consensus forecast. The refinancing index fell by 5.06% amid the mortgage rates rising. The December FOMC Meeting raised the discount rate by 0.25% which is reflected in the mortgage market. There was real wages decline in November by 0.1% at the same time. The pair dollar/yen showed a growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

After Draghi's comments, which were clearly "pigeon", the euro reeled some positions amid the two key Central Banks policy differences. However, it is too early to speak about a significant euro weakening as the US economy shows more and more surprises in recent years. We believe that the Fed might shed some light on its further steps prospects the next week during its planned meeting.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 0.0730 soon. The next target is the level of 1.0630.



Pound

General overview

In general, waiting the British Prime Minister Cameron speech in Davos became the main negative driver for the pair. The Prime Minister was supposed to speak about a potential UK withdrawal from the EU. This topic has recently become a serious concern to the British currency which has already significantly lost its position amid the economic situation deteriorating in the country.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are two levels of support: 1.4320, 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

We think that we will hear from the Bank of Japan head similar to the ECB comments on January 29th when the regulator meeting to be held. Meanwhile the Japan CPI growth is 0.19%.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the buyers may go to 120.40.



Franc

General overview

The world stock markets recovery has led to the dollar renewed demand which strengthened its position against most major currencies, in particular, especially against the so-called safe haven currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc. According to SNB President Jordan the deflation danger in Switzerland does not exist.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0190. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The preliminary Eurozone business activity data came in worse than expected, in fact, the release pointed to a clear deterioration. We believe that report was not a reason for the euro weakening, as it is necessary to wait for more definitive data. The main reason was the Dragi’s performance who hinted at the possible quantitative easing program expansion.

The debt market still shows an increase optimism regarding the British assets. The EUR/GBP long positions closure, after the ECB meeting on January the 21st , plays into the Sterling bulls hands. The UK December retail sales fell by 1.0% against the forecast of -0.1%.

The Japanese yen has safely returned to the strategic range of 118.40-120.70 which has been controlled by the BoJ entire 2015. Still the BoJ recently moved away from the yen control, focusing on the general economy problems. According to the Finance Ministry the December exports continued to decline. Many economists believe that the Chinese economy weakening is a reason of this decline. Still the yen disregarded this report.

The oil market strengthening is a welcome factor for the commodity currencies. However, last Friday “black gold” growth did not support the Australian and New Zealand dollars.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The IFO business environment indicator attracted traders’ attention being correlated with the Germany GDP dynamics. The production and non-production PMI slowdown does not inspire and we do not expect to see the release with the data better than the consensus forecast. The risk appetite keeps growing among investors. The stock market bullish sentiment is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading down. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

The move below 1.0730 will signal the presence of sellers. The price may go deeper and reach 1.0630 soon.



Pound

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office reported about the retail sales reduction last Friday. Despite the negative release the British pound was in demand that might be a sign of strong buyers presence.

The oil market stabilization will be well received by investors. The Brent quotes rose by 10% last two trading days. As you know the Pound and the oil quotes are closely connected. We may expect the pound growth attempts.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a flat.

Trading recommendations

In the scenario where the buyers are involved the potential growth targets are two levels of resistance: 1.4350, 1.4470. In the event that the sellers manage to force below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure.



Yen

General overview

The S&P 500 index tested the minimum levels of 2015 in the past week after which we saw a strong demand and the price growth. The increased demand for "risky assets" has traditionally been a negative factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency. The rapid oil quotations growth brought the US stock energy sector in leaders.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The United States can please traders with a Conference Board positive report. The January Michigan University consumer confidence indicator came in at fresh 6-month high amid real incomes growing expectations. The average earnings growth was 2.5% at the end of 2015, with an inflation of 0.7%. Thus, the population real incomes increased by 1.78% while the real incomes increased by 0.99% in 2014. Positive data would support the US currency and we do not ignore the "risky assets" demand dynamics.

The euro significant strengthening against the dollar was the result of several factors. The very first one is the upcoming Fed meeting today. Traders believe that the FED will not increase the refinancing rate and that decision may weaken the dollar. The Fed will monitor the macro-economic dynamics that demonstrates albeit sluggish, but a growth. The second factor is government debt securities yields growth where the three month bills yield increased from 0.255% to 0.305%.

We think that bulls can take a break and we will see a gradual pound decline. The Bank of England left the rate unchanged. Mark Carney, the Bank Governor said that there was no reason to do it. They are ready to reconsider the current situation when the country economy shows a stable growth.

The yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar when the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso supported the Bank position and its intention to act if needed. The main Bank of Japan target is the inflation rate of 2%. Aso expressed the hope that the regulator would continue its efforts to achieve the price stability, taking into account the economic and price conditions.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The IFO indicator has dropped to its lowest level in eleven months which is a negative factor for the single European currency. This indicator is closely correlated with the Germany GDP dynamics, and its negative data is the first wake-up call for the market. The Germany economic growth slowdown is always painful perceived by traders.

We also note the mechanical engineering and the automotive industries rising pessimism, mainly due to low exports.

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The move below 1.0730 will signal the presence of sellers. The price may reach 1.0630 soon. The level of 1.0925 is an obstacle for the pair’s growth. Shall the EUR/USD breaks that level the pair could escalate up to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The average earnings slowdown coupled with the oil prices collapse help to reduce the short-term inflation expectations. The pound strengthening against the euro during 2015 is putting strong pressure on the British industry. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.1%, while the Cable devalued against the euro by 7.5% in the past two months which creates a positive foundation for the second quarter of this year.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The first resistance is at 1.4350, the next one is at 1.4470.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buying scenario may become a reality soon. Buyers can leave the Ichimoku cloud behind heading to the resistance levels: 1.4470, 1.4650. In the event that the sellers manage to force below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure.


Yen

General overview

The United States can please traders with the positive Consumer Confidence data amid real incomes growing. The real income growth rate peaked in the last nine years which together with low unemployment (5%) contribute to the consumer optimism growth.

However, the bond market is showing the USA and Japanese government bond yield differential decrease which does not allow counting on strong price growth.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market was able to develop immunity towards the Chinese stock market bad news. The Chinese index again lost more than 6%, still only the gold reacted to this news with a growth the rest currencies remained at their positions.

The US economic data came out neutral. The January service sector business activity index came in at 53.7 versus the December value of 54.3. The forecast was 53.9. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board showed an increase from 96.3 to 98.1.

As expected the Fed statements were quite "dovish". The regulator is concerned about the further economy development and does not exclude the further rate hike in March.

Investors stake on the dollar strengthening. According to GfK the Germany consumer confidence index surfaced a decline from 9.4 to 9.3 in February. According to the BBA the December Mortgage Approvals showed 43.975Kwith the expectations of 45K. The December New Home Sales came in at 0.544M.

The Japanese yen is growing on expectations that the Friday Central Bank meeting will be a soft one.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Analysts expect a bearish sentiment to return soon for two reasons. The US corporations pleased investors with the fourth quarter positive report. Secondly, we cannot ignore the oil market dynamics – the Brent and WTI rose by 5% the other day that is possible only in case of risky assets high demand.

All the traders' attention was focused on the Fed decision regarding the rate. As it was expected the regulator left the rate unchanged. Still the market is full with rumors that the rate hike will take place the first spring month.

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading upwards crossing the Tenkan-sen. The pair shall advance the north until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a flat. The further pair movement depends on what the support or the resistance line the pair breaks. The move below 1.0730 is a bearish signal. The level of 1.0925 break may send the pair up to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

We think that there three reasons to long. We expect the positive mortgage lending data amid the labor market positive trend. According to the Markit the December construction industry also showed growth which confirms the positive trend. The UK low inflation (0.2% in 2015) contributes to a real income increase and is a positive factor for the real estate market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The first resistance is at 1.4350, the next one is at 1.4470.

The sell signal got stronger as the price is moving from the Cloud. The price is still in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are both horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Daily and weekly technical studies remain bearish. Shall the pair break below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure. The upward targets are the resistance levels: 1.4470, 1.4650.



Yen

General overview

We should expect the pair’s growth amid "risk appetite" growth among investors. The US corporations positive quarterly reports returned "bulls" on the market. The stock market and high-yield cross-rates growth indicate carry trade positions increase and in this regard the yen will be under pressure as the funding currency. The debt market also confirms the USD/JPY upward trend: the US and Japanese government bonds profitability differential are being expanded.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve is concerned about the financial market turbulence. The Fed statements did not have any effect neither on the EUR/USD pair nor the other assets.

The EUR/USD trades were restrained yesterday - investors continue to evaluate the Fed two-day meeting results, the first one in the new year.

Germany has surfaced the inflation preliminary data whose growth rate may accelerate from 0.3% to 0.5%. The ECB is cautious about its quantitative easing program, as the Germany inflation dynamics is relatively well. The data came in at the forecasted median. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

The Initial Jobless Claims number showed - 278000. The forecast was 282000. The labor market is relatively stable, even though all visible signs of long-term unemployment growth are seen which has a negative impact on the overall unemployment level. In addition, the expected durable goods declined by 0.6%. However the decline was 5.1%.

Yesterday the UK 4th quarter GDP was published. The GDP growth rate was 2.27% for the first nine months of 2015, as it was forecasted. It is worth noting that the first nine months of 2014 the growth rate was 2.87% which indicates the UK economic slowdown phase. The data came in at the forecasted median. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades.

The USD/JPY pair is still trading in a narrow channel. However, concerns that the Bank of Japan will announce the next mitigation measures at the end of the two-day meeting are putting pressure on the yen. Japan published the retail sales which decreased by 1.1% in comparison to the same period in 2014.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The US Federal Reserve left the rate unchanged. The regulator noted the short-term inflation expectations decreased amid the low energy prices. According to the Fed the rate may be increased in March, still its growth depends on the incoming macroeconomic statistics.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The UK 4th quarter GDP was the main event this week for the country. The industrial production decline and the negative trade balance alongside with the high pound value are negative factors that traditionally impede the economic growth. The fourth quarter service PMI also showed a slowdown. The GDP data came in at the forecasted median: 0.5% (q/q) and 1.9% (y/y).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan will announce the monetary policy meeting results after which we can see the USD/JPY upward trend acceleration. Low energy prices may force the monetary authorities to revise their inflation forecasts and give a hint to investors to the possible further monetary policy easing. As the market is acting proactively, we can assume that many investors may long in advance.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40. If the price falls it will get to 118.40 and 117.80.



Franc

General overview

The Fed left the interest rate in the previous target range of 0.25-0.50% per annum. The rate was changed last month and the market has not seen any noticeable effect yet. The Fed accompanying statement was quite soft, although the regulator promised to raise the rates further.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidaing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The United States data disappointed traders and became the reason of its weakening. The Initial Jobless Claims number fell to 294 thousand. The Continuing Jobless Claims increased from 2.219 million to 2.268 million which again increases the unemployment risk.

The preliminary Germany inflation data coincided with the forecasts, having confirmed the assumption about the price growth acceleration from 0.3% to 0.5%. The Germany retail sales growth rate is slowing from 2.3% to 1.5%. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a decrease.

According to the UK National Bureau of Statistics the previous year 4th quarter GDP increased compared with the previous quarter. The economy managed to show a growth of 0.5% in Q4, while the same indicator expanded by only 0.4% in Q3. The UK economy has grown by 2.2% for the entire 2015. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD showed a decrease.

The Bank of Japan is determined to launch the new monetary stimulus. Unexpectedly, the regulator introduced the negative deposits interest rates. This decision was taken due to the low inflation level and the global financial markets instability. The Central Bank lowered the commercial banks deposits rate to 0.1% from 0.1%. According to the Bank statement, the regulator is ready to go for an even greater rates decrease, if it considers this measure necessary. The asset purchase program amount was maintained at 80 trillion yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Due to the lack of important macroeconomic statistics we shall pay our attention to the world's leading stock exchanges dynamics. Last Friday investors' attention was focused on two reports: the first euro area inflation estimate (the data came in at the forecasted median 0.4% y/y) and the US GDP Quarterly Report.

The fourth quarter US GDP preliminary data was expected with strong slowdown from 2.1% to 0.8% but it came in at the level of 0,7%.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

It may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.0800 and 1.0730.



Pound

General overview

The UK GDP increased by 2.2% in 2015. The economic slowdown is a negative factor for the currency, but the pound was in a correction phase to the downward trend and the price growth may be continued.

According to the USA GDP leading indicators we should not expect positive data. The release came worse then it was expected: 0,7% against the forecasted 0,8%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.4320, 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

Low energy prices help to reduce the Japanese inflation expectations. The weak retail sales indicate the personal consumption volume reduction which is a negative factor for the economy as a whole as well as for the inflation, in particular.

The Central Bank is under pressure from weak economic indicators and the Japanese Government has taken to some extent non-standard solution to low the rate to 0.1% and to maintain the redeemed assets volume at 80 trillion yen a year.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

By the end of the trades the dollar strengthened against the franc. The United States news flow disappointed traders and contributed to the dollar weakening. Thus, initial jobless claims number fell to 294 thousand. The Continuing Jobless Claims index has increased from 2.219 million to 2.268 million, which again increases the unemployment risk. The durable goods orders decreased by 5.1%, although the market expected a decrease by 0.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The USA contradictory statistics could not undermine the dollar's strength. According to the preliminary data, the USA economy grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter against the forecast of + 0.8% and the previous value of 2.0%. Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures index rose in line with expectations at 1.2%. The Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 92.0 against the forecast of 93.0 and the previous value of 93.3. In general, the economic picture is rather mixed. The recent Fed announcements that the country economy slowed down prepared the market to weak GDP data.

The January euro zone moderately positive inflation release cooled the bears' ardor who tried to play the card of a future monetary policy easing by the ECB in March. The US manufacturing sector ISM was also expected with negative data. The index came in at the level of 48.2 against the forecasted 48.1. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

According to the CBI the negative industrial orders balance dynamics signaled that the production sector PMI report could be worse than the consensus forecast. However the data came in better then forecasted median: 52.9 against 51.8. The pair pound/dollar sharply increased by the end of the trades.

The Bank of Japan became the chief newsmaker last week when the Bank had introduced a negative interest rate the first time in its history. According to the BoJ this rate will remain until the regulator sees a stable inflation rate of 2% per year. The pair dollar/yen slightly decreased by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

According to Draghi the euro zone economy recovery should be supported by the effective policy. In addition, he noted that the fiscal policy should contribute to the recovery process as well.

The euro was not surprised by the euro area inflation data. The consumer prices rose 0.4% y/y against the previous value of 0.2%. The core inflation accelerated to 1% in line with expectations. The euro zone published the Markit January Manufacturing PMI: the data came in at 52.3, in line with expectations.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will be trading in a side corridor between the levels of 1.0925 and 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The 10-year UK government bonds yield is decreasing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investment attractiveness in the British assets. On Monday, the United Kingdom published the manufacturing PMI. The data came in at the level of 52.9 against the forecasted 51.8.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4400 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4480 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan decision to cut the rate expanded the United States and Japanese government bond yield differential which increases demand for US assets supporting the dollar. The "risky assets" demand pressures the Japanese yen as a carry trade funding currency.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to form a consolidation under the resistance level of 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

Risk aversion has weakened the US currency position. The global economy depressing picture became the reason for the growing pessimism. Initially, the risk aversion was triggered by the China report where the manufacturing sector PMI fell from 49.7 to 49.4 while analysts expected a more modest drop to 49.6.

The Eurozone December Unemployment Rate showed 10.4%, the forecast was 10.5%. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

The UK has published the Construction PMI index for January. The index came in at 55.0. The Bank of England revealed the mortgage market statistics: the Mortgage Approvals for December grew by 0.59% to 70.84 thousand, while the Net Lending to Individuals was 3.2 billion pounds for December. Investors expected the PMI reduction compared to the previous month. The forecasted median was 57,5 against the previous 57,8. In fact the index came in at the level of 55,0. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a growth.

The 10-year Japanese government bonds yield continued their falling which is a strong bearish factor for the yen. After the Bank of Japan decision to introduce the negative interest rates the US and Japanese securities differential yields have been expanding which increases the investment attractiveness in US assets. However the pair USD/JPY fell on the yesterday’s trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone published statistics did not impact the pair. The German manufacturing PMI exceeded traders’ expectations, reaching 52.3 against the forecast and the previous value of 52.1. Meanwhile, the Markit Manufacturing PMI has coincided with the forecast at the level of 52.3.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will form a consolidation at the current levels. The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth.



Pound

General overview

The UK favorable statistics supported the pound. The Markit Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.9, exceeding the forecast of 51.8 and the previous value of 52.3. The weak USA statistics supported the GBP/USD as well.

The UK published construction PMI for January (55,0 against the forecasted 57,5).We expect the quarterly inflation report on Thursday which may disappoint investors with the revised inflation and GBP estimates to the negative direction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

The Japanese manufacturing PMI amounted to 52.3 against the forecast of 52.4. The US revealed the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (at the forecasted median 47,8) and the New York ISM (718,9 against the previous 716,6).

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.40 will be opened




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The United States published the US PMI Composite from IMS for January at the level of 53.5 (the previous value was 55.3, the forecast was 55.1). In addition the USA released the ADP Employment Change for January at the level of 205K (the previous value was 267K; the forecast was 195K).

The Eurozone unemployment rate decreased by 0.8% to the level of 10.4% in 2015. That figure is a clear reflection of the ECB soft monetary policy. The low euro rate and the cheap liquidity contribute to the real economy development. The Euro area Retail Sales showed 1,4% y/y and 0,3% m/m against the forecasted 1,5% y/y and 0,3% m/m. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a strong growth.

The UK GDP grew by 2.17% in 2015, compared with the growth of 2.85% in 2014. The same United States growth rate was 2.38% and 2.42% respectively for the same period. As we can see, the UK economic slowdown is stronger than in the USA which has traditionally been a negative factor for the currency. The pair pound/dollar increased.

The dollar showed a rather volatile dynamics. The currency weakened against the yen which is in demand amid a new wave of risk aversion. The oil prices falling caused stock indices decrease which significantly losing ground this week after the spectacular recent growth. In the light of this, buyers showed interest to the Japanese yen

Non-Manufacturing PMI has been published. The EU index showed 53.6 that coincided with the forecast. The same index showed 53.2 in the USA, the forecast was 53.7. The UK Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6 versus the forecast of 55.3



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The escape from the risky assets alongside with the favorable statistics supported the EUR/USD. In particular, the Germany Unemployment Rate fell to a 20-year low at 6.2% versus the forecast of 6.3%. The Eurozone same index fell to 10.4% from 10.5%. The Producer Price Index fell to 3.0% against the expectations of -2.8%.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The pair got under pressure due to the oil prices drop and the weak secondary report from the UK. The Construction PMI for January sharply fell to 55.0 from 57.8, while analysts had expected a much more modest weakening to 57.6.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.4630 and 1.4700.



Yen

General overview

The 2-year US Treasury bonds yield set a fresh low for the past twelve weeks. We note that the yield has dropped by 30 basis points since the beginning of this year.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 117.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 116.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

This week trading showed an increased turbulence, the dollar has collapsed on all fronts. This week has been the worst one for the dollar in the last 7 years. The USA macroeconomic statistics keeps coming out negative, the commodity market is showing growth which traditionally has a negative impact on the dollar value.

The US published the Initial Jobless Claims number (285000 against the forecasted 280000), the Unit Labor Costs (4,5% against the forecasted 3,9%) and the Factory Orders (-2,9% against the forecasted -2,8%). Today all traders’ attention will be focused on the NFP.

The EUR/USD set a fresh 3-month high. The ECB published its meeting minutes. According to Mario Draghi if the Bank decided to prolong the stimulus measures the side measures wouldn’t be an obstacle. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a growth.

The pound reached the 45th figure in the background of moderately positive Markit Services PMI. The January index figure is lower than the annual average which does not allow us to count on the growth acceleration in the leading sector of the UK economy. On Thursday, all of the players' attention was focused on the Bank of England meeting. Traders did not expect any surprise paying attention to the regulator assessment of the economic situation in the country and the monetary policy perspective. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly fell.

Lack of demand for "risk assets" plays into the USD/JPY bears hands. Investors are concerned that the US GDP in 2016 could grow less than 2.4% - such forecast was voiced at the Fed December meeting. These concerns are caused by the weak manufacturing and the service sectors ISM. The pair dollar/yen showed a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The escape from the risky assets, coupled with the widespread dollar sales caused the euro growth. The US currency seems to have less faith in the Fed's plans to tighten the monetary policy. According to the European Commission the GDP growth forecast remained at 1.9% in 2017, while the GDP growth forecast for 2016 was revised to 1.7% from previous 1.8%.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1350 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The pound keeps showing positive dynamics due to the several factors. Firstly, the oil prices growth, secondly – the dollar weakening and thirdly, the UK chances to leave the EU have been significantly decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4630, 1.4700.



Yen

General overview

The BoJ head Kuroda hinted that the regulator may continue to lower the interest rates as the monetary policy easing has no boundaries. He also promised to develop new instruments to stimulate the economy.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 116.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 115.40 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The Switzerland National Bank head Mr. Jordan reiterated that the franc was overbought and the Central Bank was ready to intervene if necessary. However, Jordan declined to comment whether the Bank had intervention lately. Switzerland published the Consumer Climate index Q1 report. The index showed -14.0. The previous value was -18.0.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman