"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Chinese market collapse for more than 7%, the Chinese stock exchanges trading suspension, cheap oil – all these factors supported the euro and the yen. The dollar experienced difficulties with a growth amid the global markets negative sentiment, the Fed soft minutes as well as the weak labor market data. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came higher than expected 200 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 295 thousand.

The struggle between the major competitors, the euro and the dollar, is continued. We believe that the euro current growth looks more like a temporary correction while the dollar remains on a horse. The pair received almost no support from the macroeconomic data which had the mixed background. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar increased.

The pound was the main outsider among the main currencies. The Cable has recently been quite sensitive to the oil prices drop which has fallen to 11-year lows. The Sterling slightly corrected after the weak USA data, in general, the pair remains under strong pressure. The UK published the trade balance: -10,64B against the forecasted -10,50B. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

At the same time Japan did not publish important reports. The dollar dynamics is the main driver for the yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply fell by the end of the trading day.





Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The consumer sentiment improvement in most sectors of the regional economy has not been transformed into the consumer spending increase yet that is seen from the retail sales reports. The Germany published import (1,6% against the forecasted 1,0%), export (0,4% against the forecasted 0,7%), payment balance (19,7B against the forecasted 20,0B) and industrial production reports (-0,3% against the forecasted 0,5%).

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1050 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

Besides to the divergence between the Bank of England and the Fed monetary policies the Sterling is under pressure amid some fears that the UK may exit the EU. The referendum is supposed to take place in the middle of 2016. While traders are speculating about the possible referendum consequences the pound remains in a state of free fall. In addition, the oil price decrease keeps pressuring the Cable.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4480 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4400 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The NFP report was last Friday main event. After a growth for 2012 thousand in November, the December NFP figure was expected to reach 200 thousand. However the relese came in at the level 292 thousand. The labor market state is one of the key benchmarks for the Fed in determining the monetary policy course.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 117.00 and 116.20 soon.




Franc

General overview

The dollar fell against the franc. Earlier the pair dollar/franc strengthened amid growing interest in dollar buying and the European shares recovery. The Chinese stock markets stabilized, European markets are recovering that reduces the demand for the safe assets, including the franc. The Switzerland unemployment rate rose to 3,7% from 3,4%, exceeding the forecast of 3,6%. The consumer prices fell in December by 1,3% y/y, after falling 1,4%.

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar again showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals, having shown weakening against the yen the sixth day in a row. In general, there was an attempt to restore the US currency positions amid the global markets improved sentiment. Last week the Chinese government decided not to suspend trading anymore that helped stock indexes to recover. This fact played into the dollar hands against the euro, still the pair loss appeared to be symbolic. At the same time unexpectedly strong USA employment report has not given to a greenback a substantial support.

The low inflation expectations, combined with the Chinese problems can make FOMC refrain from monetary policy tightening at the meeting on 27th of January, which will deprive the US dollar strong support. Yesterday the trading was defined by risk appetite amid lack of macroeconomic statistics. After a slight correction growth the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The British pound finished last week in the "red zone", still the smooth sterling devaluation is a positive factor for the United Kingdom economy. The UK trade balance release again points to the “strong pound” negative effect: the deficit amounted to 10.64 billion pounds in November which is by 1.08% more than in the same period in 2014. The pair pound/dollar decreased on Monday.

The major stock indices in Asia, Europe and North America lost more than 6% at the end of last week. The trend is in favor of the Japanese yen in the credit market: the yield differential of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds is decreasing that may attract investment to the US assets. The pair dollar/yen showed a decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Germany data pressured the euro. In particular, the Germany industrial production fell by 0.3% in November despite the forecast of 0.5% y / y, while the trade surplus narrowed to 19.7 billion euros from the previous 20.5 billion. The price fell back down after the US labor market publication. However, there was just a short-term dollar strengthening despite the unexpectedly high index results.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.0925, 1.1050. If the price falls it will get to 1.0800 and 1.0730.



Pound

General overview

The pair GBP/USD continues to move towards the south. In addition to the fundamental factors (the Bank of England and the United States monetary policy difference), and the potential United Kingdom exit from the EU the UK statistics disappointed the market –merchandise trade deficit narrowed in November and fell short of the forecast, amounting to -10.640 billion, against the expected -10.500 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.4630, 1.4700.




Yen

General overview

The price resumed its decline amid the Chinese economic prospects continue pressuring the stock markets, the yen acts as a refuge currency in this case. The USA published the labor market conditions index: 2,9 against the forecasted 0,0.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 117.00 and 116.20.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The greenback received some support from the USA strong Friday's report where the employment rate rose much more than expected. In addition, the December labor market conditions index has improved to 2.9 vs. expected value of 0.0. The Conference Board employment trends index rose to 129.3 from the previous 128.3. This labor market picture could prompt the Fed to raise the rates earlier if the country inflation accelerates.

The China was again in the center of attention when its stock market fell more than 4%. As a result the euro was in demand as a funding currency. On the other hand, the “black gold” sales caused the German government bonds yield decline, causing the United States bond yield differential expansion. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease.

The UK industrial production report could not please the market with positive data: -0.7% m/m 0.9% y/y. The November production sector PMI lost 2.7 bp. The pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

One could see a moderate USD/JPY growth due to Japanese negative payments balance: the balance figures fell to 1.42 trillion yen from 1.49 trillion yen. There was a capital inflows decrease into Japanese securities and imports growth to a trade balance. The BoJ has lost 11.2 billion dollars in the second month of the fourth quarter which is also a negative factor for its economy. The consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 in December. The pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The improved European investors’ sentiment, the widespread dollar strengthening, as well as unfavorable economic reports helped the euro to weaken. The January Sentix investor confidence index surfaced a drop from 9.6 to 15.7 against the expected value of 12.2. In general, the euro position remains fragile in light of the ECB and the Fed policies divergence, as well the US and the Eurozone different statistics.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the support levels of 1.0800 and 1.0730.



Pound

General overview

The "black gold" quotations collapsed at the beginning of the week which is a positive factor for the US currency as the commodities price is denominated in dollars. The Brent bears are inclined to test the psychological level of 30. This is a negative factor for the Sterling. The 10-year UK government bonds yield reduced relative to their US and the Eurozone counterparts.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.4480. After breaking 1.4480 the buyers may go to 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

. Investors still avoid the "risky assets". This factor is a positive one for the yen as a funding currency. The Japanese Government expressed its strong concerns about the Chinese economy slowdown and about the external risk factors, noting that the country economy keeps growing, despite the China problems.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The flat trading will be continued at the level of 117.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The stock indexes are still the main drivers to the Forex currencies and we believe they will keep influencing the market till the end of the week, especially when the economic calendar is not full with important events.

The Eurostat published the Eurozone industrial production report. Leading indicators are showing mixed background. On the one hand, the Manufacturing PMI positive dynamics makes us think that the data output will be bit better than the forecast. On the other hand, the November Germany and France industrial production recorded a decrease which is a negative scenario signal. The data came in at the level of -0,7%(m/m) and 1,1% (y/y) against the forecasted -0,3% (m/m) and 1,3% (y/y). By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

The British corporations suffer from weak external demand and a sterling high exchange rate against the euro. We do not expect strong data taking into account the factory orders reduction and the December Manufacturing PMI decline. We note a fourth quarter manufacturing sector negative trend. Investors are beginning to lay in the quotes most pessimistic expectations about the fourth quarter UK GDP. The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat.

The carry trade deals closure has traditionally been a positive factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency Forex. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The secondary USA releases had a minor influence on the quotations dynamics. The economic optimism index showed a growth, but fell short of the expected value, having amounted 47.3 vs. expected – 47.6. Meanwhile, the business confidence indicator came in at the level of 95.2 against the expectations at 95.4. The traders' attention was drawn to the Eurozone industrial production report which is expected to decline in monthly terms. The data came in worse then forecasted median.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.



Pound

General overview

. The weak productive sector suggests that the Bank of England will not raise the rates this year. Shall the Bank of England publish the negative comments on its Thursday meeting, the pound may fall under a new wave of sales.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.4400 and 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened a bit amid the quite favorable macroeconomic statistics. In December, the consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 against the expected 42.3. Meanwhile, the Eco Watchers Survey rose to 48.7 from 46.1. However, the yen failed to hold its positions in a fading of interest in risk-free assets against the background of the stock market recovery. Only by the end of the trades the yen returned the leadership.

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the consolidating between the levels of 118.40 and 117.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar showed mixed dynamics with its major opponents. Once again, the stock market set the tone of trading. The American benchmarks were under pressure, the oil went below $30 per barrel, and the safe assets partially recovered.

The German 2015 GDP was published. The GDP showed a growth rate of 1,72% in the first three quarters of last year. The German economy leading indicators, such as the manufacturing and non-production sphere PMI, as well as the IFO index pointed to the fact that the growth rate significantly accelerated in the fourth quarter. The data came out at the level of 1,7% against the forecasted 1,6%. However by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

The Bank of England minutes publication was the main event of the day. The UK interest rates remained at the same level. The weak economic data together with the oil prices decline added headache to Mark Carney and his colleagues. Now no one talks about a possible interest rates increase. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed a slight growth.

The China stock market downtrend pressured the Asian, Europe and North America stock markets. The United States trades were also under bears’ control: the high-tech sector showed the largest decline. The carry trade positionsсlosing contributed to the demand for the yen as a funding currency. Nevertheless by the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

. Traders resumed the euro buying amid the US stock indices negative dynamics and a new wave of oil prices fall when the Energy Ministry report pointed to the oil reserves growth in the US stores. The ECB released its latest meeting minutes. According to the December European Central Bank minutes release the inflation outlook has been deteriorated again.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.0800 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0730



Pound

General overview

. The Bank of England's monetary policy decision was the main event of the day. The market did not expect any changes from the regulator, although the regulator’s comments regarding the country economy and the monetary policy prospects revived the pair GBPUSD movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation at the level of 1.4400 will be continued now.



Yen

General overview

The United States and Japanese government bond yield differential has been declining increasing the investment attractiveness of the Japanese assets, thus supporting the yen. The US initial jobless claims release has been published, traders expected 278.000 against the previous 277.000, in fact the data came in at the level 284.000.

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 118.40 and 119.20.



Franc

General overview

The December Import Price Index was published in the US: the forecast was -1,4% m/m vs. the previous data – 0,5% m/m. The data came in at the level 1,2% m/m. The dollar has lost its past achievements after the Fed’s Beige Book publication. According to the report the weak wage growth pressure as well as the general price pressure is minimal. The report generated some speculations that the Fed would not rush to increase the interest rates in such circumstances.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and in above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market was quite volatile last Friday, still in general it tends to the dollar strengthening. The heterogeneous movement was mainly due to the stock and commodity markets instability. Besides the market sentiments, the currency dynamics was influenced by the European and the UK Central Banks while the macro data remained practically unnoticed.

The German 2015 GDP is encouraging. The GDP growth was 1.7% due to the personal consumption, the government spending and the investment growth. The positive data have helped to reduce the yields differential on the US and Germany government bonds. The Eurozone published the November trade balance. The data came in at the level 23,6B. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The debt market reacted to the British monetary authorities statements by the government bonds yields lowering in relation to its US and Germany counterparts. That fact, of course, reduces the investments attractiveness to the British assets. The Bank of England posted the Credit Conditions Survey. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades.

The demand for risky assets keeps growing which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. One of the last Friday key events was the USA retail sales report (-0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%) where the producer prices (on the forecasted level of 0,2%) and the Michigan University consumer confidence index (93,3 against the forecasted 93,0) were announced. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB published the December meeting minutes which wore a rather "soft" character. The regulator pointed to the inflation downside risks. Some of the Bank representatives think that the regulator can cut the rate by 20 basis points, while the other part of the voting members is against the rate easing by more than 10 basis points. The pair limited reaction to the published minutes indicates the monetary authorities’ ambiguity who apparently chose a waiting policy.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBP / USD showed no noticeable reaction to the Bank of England verdict, as the expectations regarding the meeting outcome were unanimous. The regulator confirmed its forecasts, leaving the current monetary policy course unchanged. The rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase program amounts 375 billion. The votes’ layout has remained the same - 8 to 1.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4240 and 1.4160 soon.



Yen

General overview

It is impossible to ignore the debt market dynamics: the US and Japanese government bonds differential profitability has been decreasing for four consecutive trading days. This tendency increases the Japanese yen as an investment asset supporting the demand for the yen.

The first support resides at 116.20, the next is at 115.40. The first resistance stands at 117.00, the next one is at 117.80.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 116.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 115.40.



Franc

General overview

According to the Fed's representative Bullard the Fed did not think about the further rates raising in January. At the same time, he believes the interest rate remains challenging despite the Fed's policy normalization. The dollar is very sensitive to the national policy now.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The indicator shows a weak and confirmed buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and in above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 0.9960. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The foreign exchange market showed a high volatility last week that reduced on Monday. The main volatility driver was another world stock exchanges collapse that happened after the oil price sharp decrease. However, the US reports have not gone unnoticed. The retail sales data were extremely weak which had increased pressure on the dollar. The retail sales declined by 0.1% m/m in December vs. the forecast of 0.0%. The previous value was 0.2%. The manufacturing sector business activity indicator fell to 19.37 from 6.21 while the expected slowdown was 4.0.

The United States was on a day off celebrating Martin Luther King Day. As a result there was a low volatility during the American session.

The Eurozone pleased the market with the trade balance strong data. Net exports increased by 23.6 billion euro in November which is 17.4% more than the year before. The trade surplus growth rate remained at 7.58% in October 2015. We see the growth rate acceleration which is a positive factor for the euro zone GDP. The pair euro/dollar slightly decreased.

There has not been published any important macroeconomic statistics in the UK, traders paid their attention to the debt market dynamics. The 10-year UK government bonds yield has been reduced relative to their US and Germany counterparts, thereby putting pressure on the pound. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased after a growth.

Traders avoid investments into the risky assets preferring the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However the pair USD/JPY showed a slight growth on Monday.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair fell after it was trading upwards, receiving support amid the increased interest to the safe assets. The positive trade balance report has also supported the EUR/USD – the surplus widened to 22.7 billion euro from 19.9 billion against the expected 21.1 billion. However, the main growth driver was the block of the US statistics that discouraged the dollar.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The Cable was unable to take advantage of widespread dollar sales staying among the main outsiders. However, the Pound has had its reasons for that. Firstly, the Sterling is concerned about the UK economy state. Secondly, the Bank of England is unlikely to change the rate this year. In addition, the investors are waiting for the referendum where the UK future in the EU will be decided.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4240 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4160 will be opened.




Yen

General overview

The pair dollar/yen slightly increased. Earlier the Bank of Japan statements pressured somehow the pair. The regulator hops to achieve the inflation target in the second half of 2016, and also pointed to the lack of need for further monetary policy easing. The dollar weakening impacted the pair as well. Moreover, the active Japanese yen buying was due to the flight from risky assets.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

The pair can consolidate between the support level of 117.00 and the resistance level of 117.80




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

China published the last year 4th quarter GDP. That release defined the course of trading for the whole day. Leading indicators point to a serious economic slowdown. The Markit production PMI only once was higher than 50% in the past year. The China's fourth quarter GDP is estimated at 6,8% y/y that coincided with the predictions and became a driver for the market. The other China macro-economic reports have been very doubtful with their figures. Thus, the December industrial production rose by 5.9% y/y with the growth expectations of 6,0% y/y, while the last month retail sales increased by only 11,1% y/y. Traders expected the indicator to increase by 11,3 % y/y.

The euro zone published several releases. The surplus current account balance rose to 26.4 billion euro in November against 25.6 billion in October. The ZEW economic expectations index fell to 10.2 in January from 16.1 in December, it’s the lowest level since October 2015. Economists had forecasted a decline to 8.0. The China slowing economic growth alongside with the developing economies problems are clouding the German economy prospects. Only by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

The December UK CPI became the main event for the GBP/USD. The United Kingdom labor market surfaces the mixed data. On the one hand we have an increased employment, which is an inflation indicator. On the other hand, the average earnings growth is reduced which is a negative factor for consumer prices. The oil strong sales will also exert the downward pressure on the CPI. The data came in at the level 0,2% y/y against the forecasted 0,1% y/y and 0,1% m/m that was at the forecasted level.

The reduced investors’ "risk appetite" shall contribute to the safe assets demand: primarily the Japanese yen, gold and the euro. As the Japanese yen is a funding currency №1 in carry trade operations we were again witness a downtrend development in the pair USD/JPY.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The traditional safe-haven assets remained without support. The euro failed to extend the Friday gains. Only by the end of the trades the pair showed a growth. Earlier the pair decreased feeling additional pressure from the EURGBP cross dynamics which had showed a marked decrease when the Cable tried to recover. According to the Eurostat the Eurozone inflation rose in line with the expectations in December. The inflation rose to 0.2% in December from 0.1% in November. The value corresponds to the preliminary assessment.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.



Pound

General overview

The sterling fell against the US dollar after Mark Carney said that the UK Central Bank was not planning to raise the interest rates at the moment. The December UK inflation reached 11-month high, as it was expected. According to the National Statistics Office, the consumer prices rose in December by 0.2% y/y, after rising 0.1% in November.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is undervalued and we may expect an upward rebound. The upward bounce potential target are 1.4240, 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease. We should notice that the yen had about no chance of a growth. Besides the renewed risk aversion the BoJ statements put pressure on the yen. According to the Bank the falling oil prices is welcome news for the inflation. Haruhiko Kuroda expressed his intention to continue the quantitative easing policy as long as the inflation is stabilized at the target level of 2%.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong and non-confirmed sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 117.80 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 118.40 will be opened.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The global stock markets showed an improvement which resulted in the dollar strengthening and the risk assets weakening. The China statistics showed the slow, but overall pretty good growth – the GDP grew by 6.8% y/y against the third quarter 6.9%. Stock indices are optimistic about the China macro block due to increased expectations for the monetary authorities’ additional stimulus.

The risky assets demand had a moderate negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. However, the quote decline was temporary - investors are still willing to buy the euro on dips. The United States issued the December inflation rate release. The data came in at the level of 0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%. By the end of the yesterday’s trades the pair EUR/USD slightly fell.

Meanwhile, the UK attracted the traders with the labor market data. In particular, the regulator presented the unemployment rates (5,1% against the forecasted 5,2%), Claimant Count Change (-4,3K against the forecasted 2,5K) and Average Earnings (2,0% against the forecasted 2,1%). After a decrease the pair GBP/USD rebounded upwards.

The defensive utilities sectors were the leaders of a growth on the leading stock exchanges. That may lead to the further capital flight from the "risky assets". The "risk appetite" decrease has traditionally supported the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The pair USD/JPY fell on the yesterday’s trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro zone monthly inflation rate remained unchanged while the core CPI rose by 0.9% y / y. We believe that the contradictory nature of recent data may explain why the euro had not showed any activity. In addition traders are waiting for today’s ECB meeting. The Eurozone has not published any reports except for the Germany producer price index (0,5% against the forecasted 0,4%).

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0925, the next are 1.1050 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney energetic speech became the main driver of the Cable fall. According to Mark Carney it is too early to talk about the rate hike, the economic tightening requires the further economic growth and the inflation acceleration. Carney also pointed to the low price pressure in the country. The Carney extremely "soft" comments disarmed the pound which left trying to restore.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4160, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4080.



Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese government bond yield differential once again decreased, thereby increasing the investment attractiveness in the Japanese assets. The US stock correction became the main driver of the safe-assets.

The first support resides at 116.20, the next is at 115.40. The first resistance stands at 117.00, the next one is at 117.80.

The indicator shows a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 116.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 115.40



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The "black gold" continues to set the tone of the world stock indices and they, in turn, dictate the currencies dynamics. The trading is quite nervous and volatile. The dollar mostly takes positions. The United States published the weekly initial jobless claims report: 293.000 against the forecasted 278.000.

The single European currency still can not take the tenth figure that indicates the strong sellers presence. Despite significant sell-off in global stock markets since the beginning of the year - the euro was able to symbolically strengthen over this period. The risk appetite decrease is the demand for the euro as a funding currency. There was Mario Draghi's a press conference where he had announced CPI forecasts. The euro has fallen off after the ECB President Mario Draghi said that they need to "reconsider" the Bank monetary policy at its next meeting in March, when there will be fresh economic forecasts. Only by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD strengthened.

According to the November Unemployment Rate it is too early to write off the United Kingdom economy. Moreover, the pound devaluation against the euro and the dollar will boost exports which have a positive impact on the GDP. This factor reduces the US and UK government bond yield differential in the debt market. The pair pound/dollar increased.

Although the yen has strengthened by 2.9% since the beginning of this year we do not see any signal that the downward trend comes to the end. After a slight pause, investors again rushed to get rid of "risky assets". However the pair USD/JPY strengthened by the end of the trades.


Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting anticipation was one of the limiting factor for the pair's growth. The market did not expect from the regulator further easing policy steps, but hoped that Draghi would outline the current economic situation in the region and would give hints on the future plans of the regulator. The euro fell after the meeting when Draghi promised to reconsider the current economy policy.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 1.0800 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0730 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The oil dynamics has quite a serious impact on the world markets in recent years. We believe that the GBP/USD is one of the pairs that suffers most of all from the "black gold" decrease. The pressure on the pound is so strong that even quite good UK labor market data failed to provide a substantial support to the Cable.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can break the resistance level of 1.4240. After breaking 1.4240 the buyers may go to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

A new wave of safe assets buying again pushed the yen to the north. However, the Bank of Japan slightly diminished the yen ardor when the regulator said that it closely tracked the national currency dynamics. Traders interpreted this comment as a threat to the currency intervention, explaining their fears that a strong yen is not beneficial for the regulator. However, this new did not change the overall bearish picture of the pair.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The price is in the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 117.80 and 118.40



Franc

General overview

The investor sentiment deterioration again cut the greenback. In addition the latest statistics did not please the markets. The USA inflation slowed to -0.1% m / m in December when investors expected – 0.0%. That might be a negative signal about the faulty state of the economy. This, in turn, may have an additional impact on the traders’ expectations relative to the second Fed rate hike.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The Sterling is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman