LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: RBA is not so pessimistic

Current trend

At present, the RBA needs to make sure that a decrease in interest rates is really appropriate. According to RBA Meeting's Minutes, business conditions in the country are seen as very favorable and economic growth is likely to strengthen despite high unemployment rate.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistics for October, due in the US. The indicator are expected to grow that will negatively affect the AUD/USD pair.

Support and resistance

On Friday, the AUD/USD pair rebounded down from the resistance level of 0.7150 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) and, at present, continues declining within channels on the 4-hour (lower border at 0.6950, September lows) and weekly (lower border below 0.6700) charts.
At the same time, there is an upward channel on the daily chart between the support and resistance levels of 0.7030 (November lows) and 0.7500 (EMA200 and 23.6% Fibonacci correction), respectively. Thus, an upward correction towards 0.7150 (EMA50), 0.7200, 0.7370 (EMA144) is possible, but OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7200, 0.7325, 0.7370, 0.7500.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7065 with targets at 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7115.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7125 with targets at 0.7150, 0.7200, 0.7300, 0.7370 and stop-loss at 0.7080.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: decline is likely to continue

Current trend

Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistics are due today in the US. Ahead of these releases, the US dollar has strengthened against its major counterparts.
At the same time, recent statistics confirm that the EU economy is facing low growth and a low inflation. Thus, due to the difference between monetary policy concepts of the Fed and the ECB, the EUR/USD pair remains under double pressure.

Support and resistance

The EUR/USD pair broke down the lower border of an upward channel on the weekly chart at the level of 1.0760 and continues declining towards year lows at 1.0500.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend short positions.
If indicators on the 4-hour chart give appropriate signals, the pair may start correcting up towards 1.0765 (EMA50 and the upper border of a downwards channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0820, 1.0860 (May, July lows) and 1.0930 (EMA144). Nevertheless, short positions are more preferable.
Support levels: 1.0650, 1.0600, 1.0500.
Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0765, 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0860, 1.0930, 1.1050, 1.1180, 1.1285.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0650 with targets at 1.0620, 1.0590, 1.0510 and stop-loss at 1.0690.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0710 with targets at 1.0765, 1.0790, 1.0820, 1.0860 and stop-loss at 1.0680.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

During a week, the GBP/USD pair has been trading within a narrow range, close to the level of 1.5210. At present, the pair is still waiting for an impulse that will manage to push the price out of its sideways channel.
However, such an impulse is unlikely to occur today. The only news release that may influence the dynamics in the pair is FOMC Minutes. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Fed and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands indicator is directed horizontally. As there are no signals for a trend change, the pair tends to remain within the sideways channel.
Support levels: 1.5210 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5180 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 1.5240 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands).

Trading tips

At present, it is recommended to open positions when the price reaches the borders of the channel. Thus, place Sell limit orders at the level of 1.5240 with targets at 1.5210 or 1.5180. Otherwise, place Buy limit orders at the level of 1.5180 with targets at 1.5210 or 1.5240.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

The pair is supported by increased expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. In addition, data on Manufacturing Sales that came out on Monday in Canada showed a significantly worse figure than predicted by economists. Manufacturing Sales shrank by 1.5% instead of a forecasted increase by 0.1%.
During the week, attention needs to be paid to the publication of the FOMC Minutes and data on the Consumer Price Index from Canada that could support the Canadian Dollar.

Support and resistance

The USD/CAD pair fell below its moving average with a 100 period that indicates a possible start of a downward trend. However, it should be noted that during the last week there were 2 failed breakdowns of the MA.
Support levels: 1.3274 (13 November lows).
Resistance levels: 1.3312 (moving average with 100 period).

Trading tips

Open short positions from the level of 1.3304 with the target at 1.3274 and stop-loss at 1.3312.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: price strengthened slightly

Current trend

Yesterday, the price of Brent crude oil strengthened slightly and consolidated around $44.00-44.50 per barrel.
The Energy Information Administration released Crude Oil Stocks change that indicated an increase by 0.252 million barrels in stocks of crude oil in the US, well below the previous 4.224 million rise and the forecast of a 1.600 billion growth.
At the same time, the USD failed to get support from FOMC Minutes. Though a rise in the US interest rates is still possible, some Fed officials suggest that it the US economy is not yet ready for it.
Nevertheless, in the medium term, the price of oil will remain under pressure due to the oversupply of the global oil market.

Support and resistance
The price is trading within a downward channel on the daily chart with the lower border at the level of 43.00.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and 4-hour charts are turning to long positions, so an upward correction may reach the levels of 45.25 (EMA50 on the 4-hour chart), 47.00 (EMA144).
Support levels: 44.00, 43.50, 43.00, 42.50.
Resistance levels: 44.50, 45.00, 45.25, 45.50, 46.00, 47.00, 48.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 44.20 with targets at 44.00, 43.50, 43.00, 42.50 and stop-loss at 44.60.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 44.70 with targets at 45.00, 45.25, 45.50, 47.00 and stop-loss at 44.30.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the GBP managed to strengthen against the USD despite a decline at the close of trading.
The National Statistics released UK Retail Sales data for October. After a 1.7% rise in September, the indicator came in at -0.6%, below the forecasted -0.5%. Retail Sales ex-fuel also fell by 0.9%, while analysts expected a decline by 0.5%.
Initial Jobless Claims statistics, released in the US, confirmed the forecast and indicated a decline from 276K to 271K in November. At the same time, according to Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, the index of manufacturing conditions came in at 1.9 points, well above the forecasted -1.0 and the previous -4.5 points.
Recent FOMC Minutes showed that a majority of Fed officials favor a hike in the US interest rates at the upcoming Fed meeting.

Support and resistance

Support level: 1.5254 (MA50).
Resistance level: 1.5335 (yesterday's high).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.5171 and stop-loss at 1.5250.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: BoJ Governor satisfied with GDP statistics

Current trend

Yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor considers that a decline in the third-quarter GDP was insignificant. However, as many economists suggest, the Regulator may be back to discussion on easing policy at its next meeting, due on 28-29 January.
At the same time, market participant are getting ready for a hike in the US interest rates. On Thursday, US stock indices declined, while Fed funds futures show a 72% chance of a rate increase in December against a 58% likelihood two weeks ago.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in an upward channel with the upper border at the level of 129.00.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions, but on the weekly chart, they are giving buy signals.
The breakdown of 122.50 allows the pair to decline to the support levels of 122.00, 121.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and 50.0% Fibonacci). Otherwise, after the breakout of the resistance level of 123.70, the pair would strengthen to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.70.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 122.40 with targets at 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend. The European currency was under pressure from commentaries by ECB President who stated that the Regulator is ready to further ease its monetary policy. In addition to QE expansion, deposit rates may be cut that was considered by market participants as a signal to enter short positions.
Inflation in the eurozone remains below the target level. In October, the indicator gained only 0.1%.
The US economy, on the contrary, tends to grow, thus, most analysts suggest that the Fed will raise its interest rates at the upcoming meeting. This decision will negatively affect the single currency.

Support and resistance

Support level: 1.0550.
Resistance level: 1.0614.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0600 with the target at 1.0550 and stop-loss at 1.06270.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: pair overbought

Current trend

Switzerland’s export-oriented economy is under pressure amid a slowdown in the eurozone and China. Moreover, a strong national currency makes Swiss export less competitive.
Swiss inflation and retail sales growth have fallen to almost zero and industrial production has declined. At the same time, the Fed is expected to raise its interest rates at December meeting. These factors will keep the Swiss franc from growing in the USD/CHF pair.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is moving in an ascending channel between 1.0240 and 0.9800. Though the pair is overbought and is at its year highs, it still has a potential for growth.
On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend long positions. Nevertheless, on the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is starting giving a sell signal. Thus, a correction is possible to the support levels of 1.0120 (EMA50 and the lower border of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0000 (the middle of the channel on the daily chart and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
Support levels: 1.0120, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
Resistance levels: 1.0240, 1.0300.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0170 with targets at 1.0120, 1.0090, 1.0010 and stop-loss at 1.0210.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0220 with targets at 1.0240, 1.0300 and stop-loss at 1.0190.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: pair in correction

Current trend

At today’s meeting, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens pointed out to improvements in employment in Australia and the general state of the economy outside of the mining industry.
Nevertheless, amid falling investment in mining companies, slowing inflation rates, reduction in commodities exports to China and slowdown of the export oriented Australian economy further interest rates cuts seems to be the likeliest scenario.
Today attention needs to be paid to the US data on the GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Positive data will weaken the pair.

Support and resistance

The pair broke out the resistance level at 0.7150 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) and continues its correctional growth towards 0.7370 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.7500 (23.6% correction, upper border of an ascending channel, ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 0.7030 (November lows and bottom border of the ascending channel) would resume a downward trend towards 0.6950, 0.6910 (year lows).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend long positions.
Support levels: 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7325, 0.7370, 0.7500.

Trading tips

Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7190 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7220.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.7240 with targets at 0.7290, 0.7300, 0.7370 and stop-loss at 0.7190.