LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: under double "verbal" pressure

Current trend

At December 3 meeting, the ECB will revise its monetary policy. The EU economy and inflation are under pressure from concerns over global economic slowdown. On the other hand, Fed officials and its Chair Janet Yellen have repeatedly stated the possibility of a rate hike at the forthcoming meeting, due in December. Thus, the EUR/USD pair is under double "verbal" pressure.
Today, ahead of Non-farm Payrolls for October, due in the US, the volatility remains low. In case of favorable statistics, the US dollar will strengthen against its counterparts.

Support and resistance

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly charts recommend short positions. The pair is trading near the support level of 1.0820 (July, May lows), the breakdown of which may lead to a decline to 1.0500 (year lows). As long as the price remains below the levels of 1.1210 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.1325 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are more preferable.
If the NFPR statistics come in below the forecast today, an upward correction to the levels of 1.1050, 1.1130 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) may follow.
Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0735, 1.0700.
Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1130, 1.1210, 1.1285, 1.1325.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened form the level of 1.0850 with targets at 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0735, 1.0700 and stop-loss at 1.0910.
Long positions can be opened form the level of 1.0920 with targets at 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1130 and stop-loss at 1.0880.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: correction is possible

Current trend

Last week, the GBP/USD pair was falling. On Thursday, the GBP was under significant pressure when the results of the Bank of England meeting were released. UK monetary policy remained unchanged; moreover, given continuing concerns over the global economic slowdown, falling commodity prices, weak GDP figures and low inflation in the UK, interest rates will be raised no sooner than the second half of 2016.
At the same time, strengthening of the USD and growing expectations of a US interest rate hike negatively affect the GBP/USD pair, which, therefore, is likely to continue declining in the medium-term.

Support and resistance

While the price remains below the resistance levels of 1.5455 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.5410 (ЕМА144), 1.5340 (ЕМА50 and the upper border of the downward channel on the daily chart), it tends to decline to 1.5000, 1.4900 (the lower border of the downward channel) and 1.4600 (2015 lows).
Nevertheless, the price is at the lower border of the downward channel on the weekly chart so, given appropriate indicators signals on the 4-hour chart, it may rebound from this level on Monday and grow to 1.5230 (23.6% Fibonacci) during a short-term upward correction.
On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend short positions and confirm that the price is likely to continue its downward trend in the medium term.
Support levels: 1.5040, 1.5000, 1.4900.
Resistance levels: 1.5110, 1.5170, 1.5210, 1.5230.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.5040 with targets at 1.5010, 1.4980, 1.4910 and stop-loss at 1.5080.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.5110 with targets at 1.5190, 1.5230, 1.5290 and stop-loss at 1.5080.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

At the end of last week, the EUR/USD pair fell due the difference between the ECB and Fed monetary policies.
The USD was supported by positive US labor market indicators for October. Non-farm Payrolls surged 271K from 153K, while analysts expected a growth by 180K. Unemployment rate declined from 5.1% to 5.0%. Amid the abovementioned statistics, at present, economists see more than a 76% chance of a rate hike as early as this December.
Moreover, the ECB is about to extend its quantitative easing programme that adds even more pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, MACD indicator is below its signal line, forming a sell signal. Stochastic lines are in the oversold zone and ready to turn up.
The pair is likely grow to the level of 1.0893 during an upward correction and then resume its downward trend.
Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0600, 1.0520.
Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0893, 1.1000.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.0810 with the target at 1.0890 and stop-loss at 1.0790.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0690 with targets at 1.0600, 1.0520 and stop-loss at 1.0720.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: within range

Current trend

After a growth amid publication of strong labour market data from the US, the pair is trading within a narrow range.
The pair remains under pressure from strong NFPR data and Bank of Japan commentaries that represented regulator’s tendency to continue with easy monetary policy. The most likely scenario is the pair’s movement within sideways channel until Friday when Retail Sales data for October is due in the US.
Attention of the markets is now focused on employment and inflation data from the US in November and beginning of December. If data comes out rather negative, the pair can fall.

Support and resistance

The price broke out the resistance level at 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and continues moving along an ascending channel on the 4-hour and daily charts towards 123.70 (23.6% correction), 124.50 (upper border of the channel).
At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 122.50 would send the pair towards 121.50 (50% correction), 120.60 (61.8% correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
OsMA and Stochastic on the daily and weekly charts recommend long positions and start turning to purchases on the 4-hour chart.
Support levels: 123.00, 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

Trading tips

Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 123.40 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 123.10.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 122.90 with targets at 122.50, 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 123.20.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair was declining until Wholesale Inventories statistics were released in the US. The indicator came in above the forecast of 0.0%, having grown by 0.5%, that suggests an economic slowdown and negatively affects the US dollar. After the publication, the pair started strengthening and, at present, is trading in the area of 1.0760.
Today, attention needs to be paid to the ECB President Mario Draghi's Speech.

Support and resistance

On the hourly chart, the price is trading above MA10 and MA20 that have crossed each other and are directed up. MACD histogram is leaving the negative zone, its volumes are growing. Today, the price is likely to remain within the range of 1.0665-1.0770 that is confirmed by the location of Bollinger Bands MAs.
In general, the indicators suggest positive dynamics, but the pair will be under pressure until the ECB President Mario Draghi's Speech.
Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0665.
Resistance levels: 1.0770, 1.0975.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 1.0770 with the target at 1.0830 and stop-loss at 1.0750.
Short positions can be opened after the consolidation below the level of 1.0665 with the target at 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0720.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: public holiday in the US

Current trend

Today is a public holiday in the US so the volatility in the GBP/USD pair is expected to grow during the European session, when the UK releases Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings statistics for the third quarter.
According to the forecast, Unemployment Rate will remain unchanged at 5,4% while Average Earnings will grow from 3.0% to 3.2%.
At the same time, UK GBP came in at 0.5%, below the forecast of 0.6%, that suggests a slowdown of the economic growth. Thus, given expectations of a hike in the US interest rates, the pair will be under pressure at least until the forthcoming Fed meeting.
The BOE's Governor Mark Carney speech is worth paying attention to today as well. He is expected to give his assessment of the current economic situation in the UK.

Support and resistance

The price continues declining in a downward channel on the daily chart with the lower border at the level of 1.5000.
OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, weekly and monthly charts recommend short positions. At the same time, on the 4-hour chart, they indicate that an upward correction is likely to continue to the level of 1.5230 (23.6% Fibonacci, ЕМА50 and the upper border of a downward channel on the 4-hour chart).
While the pair remains below the resistance levels of 1.5450 (ЕМА200 and the upper border of the downward channel on the daily chart), 1.5400 (ЕМА144), 1.5330 (ЕМА50), it tends continue its downward trend to the levels of 1.5000, 1.4900 and 1.4600 (year lows).
Support levels: 1.5110, 1.5040, 1.5000, 1.4900.
Resistance levels: 1.5230, 1.5330, 1.5400.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.5145 with targets at 1.5110, 1.5085, 1.5040, 1.5010, 1.4980, 1.4910 and stop-loss at 1.5185.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.5210 with targets at 1.5230, 1.5290, 1.5330, 1.5390 and stop-loss at 1.5180.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair managed to strengthen despite mixed labour market statistics, released in the UK.
According to the Office for National Statistics, the Unemployment Rate for July to September declined from 5.4% to 5.3%, while analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged at 5.4%. At the same time, Average Earnings grew by only 2.5% that is below the forecast of 2.7% and the previous level of 2.8%.
In his speech at the Open Forum 2015, Bank of England governor Mark Carney emphasized the important role of the UK as the "pre-eminent global financial centre". 40% of global foreign exchange trading, half of all trades in OTC interest rate derivatives and two-thirds of trading in international bonds go through London.

Support and resistance

The price is trading close to the key resistance level of 1.5250. This level would be broken out only if the US dollar comes under after the Fed representatives' speeches, due today.
Support levels: 1.5171 (MA40).
Resistance level: 1.5250 (28 and 29 October lows).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.5171 and stop-loss at 1.5250.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: flat after yesterday's growth

Current trend

Today, the AUD/USD pair is keeping its positions though the US dollar is strengthening against other currencies. On Thursday, the Australian dollar gained significant support from strong labour market statistics, released in Australia. Thus, Unemployment Rate declined from 6.2% to 5.9% in October, while Employment Change indicated a growth by 58.6K that is about four times above the forecast.
Australia's economy is export-oriented, thus, it will benefit from a weaker national currency. At the same time, China, as Australia's biggest trading partner, is showing clear signs of economic slowdown, lowering inflation and weakening domestic demand.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Retail Sales for October and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, due in the US. Favorable statistics will strengthen the US dollar.

Support and resistance

On Thursday, the price strengthened to the resistance level of 0.7150 (EMA50 on the daily chart, the upper border of a downward channel and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic indicators are turning to short positions.
If the price fails to overcome the level of 0.7150, a downward trend may resume towards 0.7030, 0.7000 (the lower border of the downward channel), 0.6950 and 06910 (September and year lows).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, indicating that the price may continue correcting up and breakout the level of 0.7150.
Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7190, 0.7325, 0.7390, 0.7500.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7110 with targets at 0.7030, 0.6960, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7150.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7170 with targets at 0.7210, 0.7300, 0.7380 and stop-loss at 0.7140.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Last week, the GBP/USD pair managed to strengthen amid weak US macroeconomic indicators, in particular, when Retail Sales statistics were released on Friday. However, at present, the dynamics has changed.
This week, attention needs to be paid to Producer Price Index, Retail Price Index and Consumer Price Index, due in the UK. The US, in its turn, releases Consumer Price Index. Favorable statistics may strengthen the national currencies.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is due today in the US. Analysts forecast a rise from -11.36 to -6.00 points. Nevertheless, the indicator does not influence much market volatility.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, MAs with 10 and 20 periods are above the current price and directed downward. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are growing. According to the indicators, the pair tends to decline, but no high volatility is expected today so the price is likely to trade within the range of 1.5268-1.5061, which was formed by MA10 and the lower MA of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1.5061 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5026 (last week low).
Resistance levels: 1.5268 (last week high), 1.5292 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5520, 1.5821.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.5120 and stop-loss at 1.5268.
Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 1.5268 with the target at 1.5360 and stop-loss at 1.5230.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The EUR /USD pair is under strong pressure from the difference between monetary policies, led by the EU and US. The ECB aims at extending its quantitative easing programme as the forecast for inflation was revised down due to the strengthening in the EUR.
At the same time, despite of a slight decline in inflation expectations, Fed officials believe that necessary conditions for a hike in the US interest rates will be achieved in the short term.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Consumer Price Index, due in the eurozone. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected at 0.1% and at 0.0% on an annual basis. If the indicator comes in below the forecast, a significant decline in the EUR may follow.
ECB President Draghi's Speech is due today as well. His dovish outlook for the EU economy may add to pressure on the European currency.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, MACD is below its signal line, forming a sell signal. Stochastic lines are in the neutral zone and directed horizontally.
Moreover, an engulfing pattern was formed that suggests a possibility of a correction.
Thus, a likelier scenario is a correction to the level of 1.0893 after which a downward trend will resume.
Support levels: 1.0673, 1.0624, 1.0571.
Resistance levels: 1.744, 1.0829, 1.0940.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.0750 with the target at 1.0820 and stop-loss at 1.0730.
Short positions can be opened when the price reaches the level of 1.0670 with targets at 1.0630, 1.0580 and stop-loss at 1.0690.