Forex News from InstaForex

[IFX Gertrude]

US oil prices struggle to shy away from two-month low



US crude prices on Thursday held close to more than two-month lows following a sharp slump on woes the market will need a longer time to rebalance as supplies exceed demand. Benchmark US crude futures CLc1 settled at $43.15 a barrel, up 22 cents. Prices dropped 3% in the light of high production, higher US stocks, and Asian economic slowdown. Meanwhile, emerging markets worldwide are dealing with an escalating debt mountain which impends growth.

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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand Consumer Confidence At 6-Month High



An index measuring consumer confidence in New Zealand strengthened in November to the highest level in six months, the latest survey released by ANZ Bank and Roy Morgan showed Thursday. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index climbed notably to 122.7 in November from 114.9 in October. The latest reading was the strongest since May this year, when it marked 123.9. Consumers' expectations about the economy's prospects over the year ahead improved markedly in November, with the corresponding index rising to 15.0 from 2.0 in the previous month. Their own financial expectations over the next twelve months rose to 30.0 from 25.0. The index of current conditions, a concurrent indicator of spending trends, increased to 123.5 in November from 115.4 in the preceding month. Similarly, future conditions index strengthened to 112.2 from 114.6. General inflation expectations climbed to a four-year high in November, with the index rising to 4.1 from 3.3 a month earlier. At the same time, nationwide house price expectations eased to 4.4 from 4.8, which was the lowest reading in this year so far.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Slumping commodity prices distress global markets



Global equity markets came under pressure as commodity prices slumped, despite continuing concerns about the risks to commodities from lower demand and oversupply. Copper fell to $4,800 tonne in London, its lowest since July 2009, before it slightly recuperated to $4,823. In the United States, the S&P 500 closed at 2,046, up 1.4%, as the energy and basic materials sectors slid 2.3% and 2%, respectively. In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 dropped 1.6%, its worst level since late September, as the mining sub-index lost 5.1%. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.5%, but was still up around 24% from its August lows. The market has been unsettled by recent figures leading to sluggish industrial growth in China, even as the London Metal Exchange disclosed inventories of copper were escalating.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Pound Falls Against Majors



The British pound weakened against the other major currencies in the Asian session on Friday. The pound fell to a 2-day low of 186.45 against the yen, from yesterday's closing value of 186.71. Against the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc, the pound dropped to 1.5208 and 1.5230 from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.5231 and 1.5221, respectively. The pound edged down to 0.7097 against the euro, from an early high of 0.7087. If the pound extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 184.00 against the yen, 1.50 against the greenback, 1.50 against the franc and 0.72 against the euro.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Eur/usd :watch Out for 1.0800 for Further Bullishness



EUR/USD has made a low of 1.06911 and started to recover from that level. It is currently trading around 1.07915. Short term trend is till weak as long as resistance 1.0800 holds. The pair has been struggling to break above 1.0800 for the past four trading session and break above confirms short term bullishness, a jump till 1.0900/1.1000 cannot be ruled out . On the downside major support is around 1.0660 and break below targets 1.0600. The pair's minor support is around 1.0750 and below that level decline till 1.0700/1.0680 is possible. It is good to buy only above 1.0800 with SL around 1.0748 for the TP of 1.0900/1.1000.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Economy Contracts More Than Expected In Q3



Japanese economy entered in to recession in the three months ended September, as the GDP contracted for the second straight quarter, preliminary figures from the Cabinet Office showed Monday. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 0.8 percent in the third quarter, following a revised 0.7 percent decrease in the previous three months. Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent drop for the September quarter. On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP slid 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three-month period to September, the same rate of contraction as in the preceding quarter. The figure was also matched with consensus estimate. In the first quarter of this year, the economy expanded 1.1 percent. Nominal GDP remained flat in the third quarter, defying economists' expectations for 0.2 percent decline. In the second quarter, the economy grew 0.2 percent.

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[IFX Gertrude]

US Treasury urges Japan to bolster economy



US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has pressed Japan to proffer fiscal support to its economy to reignite growth in the country. Lew, in a statement, made the remarks during a bilateral meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey. He urged the country to fine-tune their fiscal policy to avert sluggish growth in the near future and ensure the return to domestic demand-driven growth can uphold consolidation efforts over the medium term. The Japanese economy slid 0.2% in the third quarter. The nation has faced recession four time since the global financial crisis.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Singapore NODX Falls Unexpectedly In October



Singapore's non-oil domestic exports declined unexpectedly in October, data from the International Enterprise Singapore showed Tuesday. NODX dropped 0.5 percent year-over-year in October, confounding economists' expectations for a 3.6 percent growth. In September, non-oil domestic exports had risen 0.3 percent. The annual decrease in October was caused by a contraction in electronic NODX which outweighed the increase in non-electronic NODX, the agency said. Exports of electronic products fell 3.2 percent annually in October, in contrast to the 5.7 percent rise in the previous month. This was largely due to the fall in exports of ICs, parts of ICs and parts of PCs. Economists had expected a 2.2 percent fall for the month. At the same time, shipments of non-electronic products grew 0.7 percent in October, reversing a 1.9 percent drop in September. On a monthly basis, NODX rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent in October, following a 2.8 percent decrease in the preceding month.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Gender gap progress slows down - WEF



Women now earn what men did 10 years ago, highlighting the deceleration in global progress made in narrowing the gender division. The World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Report said the gap in education, economic opportunity, health, and politics worldwide has closed by 4% in the last decade, while the economic gap constricted by 3%. The WEF report implied it will take another 118 years to attain equality, and progress towards wage equality and labor force parity has stalled since 2009 or 2010. In 97 countries, more women than men are studying in university. Also, women comprise most of the skilled workers in only 68 nations and the majority of leaders in only four.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Fitch: Oil India's Net Price more Stable After New Subsidy-Sharing Scheme



Fitch Ratings says India's new subsidy-sharing framework for kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) provides the two state-controlled upstream producers, Oil India Limited (OIL, BBB-/Stable) and Oil and National Gas Corporation, with more stability in their realised oil prices net of discounts. The overall subsidy burden on the state and the state oil and gas companies have reduced substantially after diesel prices were deregulated in October 2014. The two state-controlled upstream companies were previously required to provide their oil to refiners at substantial discounts not directly related to oil prices - as high as USD56 per barrel - as part of India's state-directed energy subsidies for end-users. Following the deregulation of diesel prices, the government said that for the fiscal year ending March 2016 (FY16), the maximum state subsidy to oil marketing companies to sell fuel below market prices will be limited to INR18/kg for cooking gas (LPG) and INR12/litre for kerosene; any additional subsidy will have to be borne by the oil producers. The net realised prices that the upstream companies receive on the sale of oil produced (market price of crude less discounts to refiners) will vary less under this new mechanism because the discounts they provide increase and decrease with the movement in global crude oil prices. Assuming an average Brent oil price of USD55/bbl in FY16, OIL's net realised oil price after subsidy discounts would be around USD51/bbl. This would be about 8% higher than the USD47/bbl reported in FY15. However, if Brent averages USD40/bbl for the remainder of FY16 (average FY16 price of USD51/bbl), OIL's net realised oil price would be little changed at around USD48/bbl, as the discount also falls. Conversely, if Brent averages USD60/bbl for the rest of the financial year (USD59/bbl on average in FY16), the net realised price by OIL would be around USD53/bbl after adjusting for a higher discount. Our estimates assume that OIL's oil output would be 3% lower yoy in FY16, based on its 1HFY16 results. We have used a USD-INR exchange rate of 64.5, based on 1HFY16 average. As for the oil marketing companies, they would be compensated fully by the government for selling LPG and kerosene below market prices under this arrangement. The above arrangement is through March 2016; it is yet not clear if the government would make any significant adjustments to the mechanism or the thresholds for the next fiscal year.

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