"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro is recovering after the Friday's decrease. The European stock markets decrease supports the single currency, which, however, is of corrective nature. In general, the euro is under pressure amid the weak IFO survey. The pair EUR/USD is trying to recover after the last week decrease, the decrease was triggered by the Draghi's statement.

The pair GBP/USD is trading in the quite narrow range near the important support. The October British Industry Confederation report can become a catalyst for a further movement. The report was expected with decline -8, but in fact, it turned out -18.

The yen increased, having corrected its losses against the dollar. The Bank of Japan representative Hamada said that as long as the Fed rate hike expectations put pressure on the yen, the Bank of Japan did not need the further monetary policy easing.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Germany IFO institute business climate data were published yesterday. Traders expected business climate index to be 107,8 in fact it was 108.2. This indicator is closely correlating with the economic growth pace and is always closely monitored by traders. The industrial sector slight slowdown is offset by the service sector growth. Population revenues are noticeably increasing, the unemployment and mortgage rates are decreasing. These are ideal conditions for the construction sector. The September secondary housing market sales rose up by 5.7% compared with August.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The resistance levels are 1.1150 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair rebounded from the Friday’s low yesterday. The EUR/USD reached the first resistance at the level 1.1050. If the pair keeps growing it will fly straight to the resistance – 1.1150. Shall the pair fall the target will be the level 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the lateral trend amid the mixed news background. The UK 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Traders expected the support from the primary residence sales, still the index came out lower than expected - 468,000 against the forecasted 550,000.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a weak sell signal; the price is in the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards; the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the downward movement is continued the price will decrease to 1.5300. In case of a growth the level of 1.5390 will be the first target.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Bullish sentiments prevailed during the trading day. There was the "risk appetite" growth after the Mario Draghi’s statement that the ECB was willing to increase the incentive package at the next meeting in December. Such verbal intervention provoked the quotations growth on the Asian, European and North American stock exchanges. The carry trade operations increase is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency. The commodity market sales also contribute to the dollar strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give us a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD decreased by 0.3% amid the short positions profit taking. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations decrease by 0.35% amid the September US new home sales negative release. The pair USD/JPY decreased by 0.35% by the end of the day amid the carry trade closure which caused the demand for the yen as a funding currency.

The morning course of the trades was determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their US and the UK counterparts, which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement, however, demand for the "risky assets" is still preserved.

The main event of the day was the third quarter UK GDP release report. There was the third quarter service sector growth rate slowdown, this sector is the basis of the UK economy. According to the Markit Economics PMI data, the manufacturing sector also showed a decrease compared to the previous quarter. The negative factor is the state budget gradual reduction, which reduces the multiplier effect in the economy.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their UA and the UK counterparts which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement. The US statistics was in the focus yesterday. The durable goods orders pleased traders with the positive data. The labor market upward trend contributes to the household spending increase. The September car sales increased in the domestic market

The pair euro/dollar tends to decrease. The attempts to form a low bottom are expected.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing it will reach the resistance – 1.1050, the second growth target is the level of 1.1150. Shall the pair fall the target will be the level 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The third quarter UK GDP release was the main event of the day. The trade deficit increase amid the British currency revaluation against the euro is traditionally a negative factor for an economy growth. However, that is not so bad for the UK economy. The unemployment level reduction and the average earnings growth, taking into account premiums make the household spending increase which eventually moderates out the mentioned above negative factors.

The pair tends to decline. The pair failed to break through the key resistance of 1.5390 and it is under pressure now.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks the level of 1.5300, the downward movement will be continued to 1.5200. In case of a growth the level of 1.5390 will be our first target.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

This week traders’ attention will be focused on the Fed meeting where the US interest rates decision will be made. The Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for October 30 where the regulator will also decide on the country interest rate. Currently, the Japan economy is showing very weak recovery signs and the country inflation rate remains far below the target of 2.0%. If the Fed refrains from the interest rates raising, it could prompt the Bank of Japan to the monetary policy further easing.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

During the day the euro rate was demonstrating a positive trend against the most world currencies after its decline the day before. Traders were expecting the US Federal Reserve decision about the monetary policy.

The Fed meeting was held on October 27-28. Analysts were sure that the regulator would keep the base rate at its lowest level and would delay the monetary policy tightening till 2016. Their assumptions were correct as the Fed did not change the rates. The FED meeting supported the dollar. Regulator hinted that the next rate hike might happen this December

In the context of some uncertainty investors prefer safer assets. In addition, investors continue to win back the US controversial statistics. Thus, the country durable goods orders volume decreased by 1.2% in September compared to August while analysts expected a decrease by 1.5%.

The Conference Board analytical company said in its turn that the US consumer confidence index fell to 97.6 points in October from the revised September figure of 102.6 points. Analysts predicted the index to be at the initial level of 103 points in September.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Federal Open Market Committee statement (FOMC Statement) was expected with moderately aggressive tone, despite the weak economic reports for the last two weeks. The German GfK consumer confidence index was expected to decrease from 9.6 to 9.5 in September. Traders expected the September imports prices at 0.2% after 1.5% in August.

The Fed left the rates unchanged. Still the regulator may change the rate this December. The rate change will depend on the November meeting results.

The short-term correction from the support level of 1.1050 turned downwards. Sellers broke the level and fell further.

The first support is at the level of 1.0870, the next one is at 1.0830. The resistance levels are 1.0925 and 1.1050.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair grows it will reach the resistance – 1.0925. Still we do not believe in a growth right now. We presume that the pair will keep falling after yesterday’s Fed meeting. The targets are 1.0870 and 1.0830.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The 3rd quarter UK GDP was only 0.5% against the quite weak forecast of 0.6% and a growth by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. The US durable goods orders volume (Durable Goods Orders) decreased by 1.2% in September against the forecast of -1.1% and -2.3% in August, according to the basic indicator (except transport components), the reduction was 0, 4% against the neutral forecast of 0.0%.

The upward trend which began at the support level of 1.5100 showed reversal signals. The support level of 1.5325 and the rising channel lower bound of 1.5320 breakthrough were among these signals.

The first support is at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5300, the second one is at 1.5390.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair sharply fell at yesterday American session. The pair may return to the resistance 1.5300 for a while still we support the idea that the decrease will be continued. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The expected lateral trend resulted in a rather strong decline at the technical level of 120.40 due to worse-than-expected US September new home sales and the durable goods orders volume data. The stock market declined on Monday and Tuesday and as a result the market got the yen decrease by 82 points yesterday. The Bank of Japan intends to leave the current monetary policy unchanged. The Central Bank will make up a decision on this issue on the Friday meeting. Still the reason of yesterday’s pair growth was the FED decision that supported the greenback.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is directed upwards, both lines are forming a “Golden Cross”. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve meeting has been already held and it's time to sum up results. The monetary authorities kept interest rates unchanged and pointed out to the December rate hike possibility. It should be noted that the FED has been promising to change the policy since June so it was not obviously a new event for financial markets.

Our attention was drawn to the UK September mortgage lending publication. The labor market positive dynamics (the unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth) with the mortgages interest rates decline point out to the positive data output. Against this background, the British currency gained short-term support.

During the day, the "bullish" sentiment dominated within the pair USD/JPY for two reasons. Firstly, the Asian trading session industrial production data were published that put pressure on the Japanese currency. Secondly, the PMI production sector decline with the factory orders decrease did not allow investors to count on the strong data output.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The FOMC again pointed out to the weak export, the number of new jobs decline and the low inflationary expectations. However, the US currency showed a powerful growth the previous day. Traders again continued to win back the divergence after a pause, waiting for the Federal Reserve and the ECB central banks actions.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance – 1.1050 is our first growth target. We expect the pair to keep falling. The targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the Ministry of Energy the US crude oil stocks again increased which may put pressure on the basic reference varieties price. The USA did not please traders with the last quarter positive GDP release. The index was expected to reach 1.6%, but in fact it turned out to be worse than expected having amounted less than 1.5%. The Great Britain, on the other hand, upset traders with weak data regarding the same indicator.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Though the pair returned to the resistance 1.5300 we do not believe it will grow much higher. We support the sell idea. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Apple company positive report with the FOMC "pigeon rhetoric" supported the US stock market and today we may expect the upward trend continuation. Demand for the "risky assets" will put pressure on the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday the United States did not please traders with the third quarter GDP positive data. The index showed 1.5%0 with the consensus forecast of 1.6%. The Government statistics have recorded a personal income growth, still the household spending has fallen. The negative dynamics also affected the investments and net exports. Now, however, it is not necessary to perceive this report as pessimistically as investors "laid" in quotes the GDP growth slowdown.

We should carefully monitor the debt and commodity markets dynamics amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics. The UK government bond yields have been growing for two trading days in a row regarding to their US and Germany competitors which increases the investments’ attractiveness in the British assets. The Brent crude oil can continue to decline at any time amid the world oversupply as well as the US desire to sell oil from the strategic reserve. The US reserves have 695.1 million barrels. The commodity quotations decrease has a positive impact on the dollar as the raw materials cost was denominated in the US dollars.

The Japanese 10-year government bond yields which reflect investors' inflationary expectations fell by 5 bp in September. Consumer spending is increasing amid the average wage growth; however, the current growth is not high enough to talk about the inflationary pressures increase. The low energy prices remain a major threat to the price stability.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell sharply, having lost more than 100 points in a few minutes when the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The dollar rose after the decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged, moreover, the regulator noted that they would decide the further plans for the rates at the next meeting. In this situation, the euro suffered the most of all and fell sharply against the dollar, the pound and the yen. The data have shown that the November consumer confidence index, calculated by Gfk, came out at the forecasted level and was 9.4 while the previous figures showed 9.6 in October.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance – 1.1050 is our first growth target. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound increased to 1.5300 and updated the two week lows in the framework of decline that was provoked by the Federal Reserve statement. The Committee recognizes that the employment growth slowed and the inflation remained below the target value of 2%, still the question of a possible interest rate hike will be open in December.

As traders expected a more pessimistic turn of events the dollar has grown.

The first support is at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the second one is at 1.5550.

We have a buy signal now as the price broke the Cloud upwards. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The upward movement will be continued if the pair stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing, it will go to the level of 1.5460. The decrease target is the level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The short-term bond yields also suggest that the December rate hike possibility is maintained. The two years bond yields increased by 9 pm while the 10 year bond yields rose up by 6 pm.

Earlier the market did not react to the US trade balance positive data. The publication showed that the US trade deficit narrowed to $58.63 billion in September, compared to $ 67.19 billion the previous month, which is less than the forecast of $64.90 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a weak and confirmed buy signal; the pair is in the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. If the USD/JPY remains returns above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair returns above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US reports showed that the consumer spending and incomes grew less than expected while the personal consumption expenditures price index has shown the biggest fall since January. The published US PMI in the manufacturing sector was better than expected - 50.1 vs the forecast of 50.0.

The statistics supported the pair EUR/USD having shown that the pre-consumer inflation justified the analysts’ forecasts, having shown 0.0% in annual terms. The basic consumer price index rose up by 1.0% y/y vs. 0.9%. The separate report has witnessed the euro area unemployment rate decrease to 10.8% against the September value of 11.0% and the August value of 10.9%.

The inflation report could cast a shadow on the Bank of England rate change decision in May 2016. If the report coincides with the economic growth forecasts decrease, the market will regard it as a "dovish" tone. The inflation is expected to grow to the level of 2% next year which makes a rate hike in May more possible. The October PMI showed a 55.5 against the expected 51.3.

The pair USD/JPY returned to its previous range at the end of the last week. The Bank of Japan decision to leave the monetary policy unchanged suggests that the Central Bank see the situation differently. The Japanese regulator avoids the monetary policy changes, keeping the QE program at the level of 80 trillion yens ($660 billion.), despite the further easing growing expectations amid the weak statistics.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro was near 1.1030 before the euro area business activity reports publication. The manufacturing activity index will be in the Europe and the United States spotlight. The ISM purchasing managers index will be closely studied, especially the employment sub-index as the market is monitoring the employment and inflation in order to understand what will be the Federal Reserve December decision. The euro growth may be restrained due to the ECB December further easing expectations.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance of 1.1050 limits the pair’s growth. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has significantly grown, especially taken into consideration the euro decline. If we compare two banks that can potentially increase the rate we will see the difference between the Bank of England and the Fed rhetoric. The Fed maintains the hope of the December rate hike while the last month Bank of England reports tone was rather mild. The inflation report can cast doubt on the Bank of England decision. If it coincides with the economic growth forecasts decrease, the market will regard it as a "dovish" tone.

The first support is at 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

We have a buy signal now as the price broke the Cloud upwards and stays above of it. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The upward movement will be continued if the pair stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing, it will go to the level of 1.5460. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar stopped the two day decline and regained some of its losses as traders are closing dollar positions. The European stock market was opened with a decrease. Markets reacted negatively to the weak China PMI, preferring safe assets, including the yen.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a weak and confirmed buy signal; the pair is in the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen downwards. If the USD/JPY returns above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair returns above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week was marked by the currency market sluggish uninteresting trade in narrow side ranges. One of the low volatility reasons was the lack of important economic data. Another factor that made traders wait and see was the US employment report which would appear in the coming Friday. In these circumstances, the dollar has grown up very slightly against all of its major opponents.

The Eurozone news has shown good results. The manufacturing sector last figures were revised in the growth direction, still it did not affect the European currency traders. The market's attention was drawn to the ECB President Draghi, who said that the level of monetary policy stimulation should be reviewed at the December meeting.

The British pound showed the most prominent multidirectional volatility among the majors, but also, like the other major currencies, was closed with a decrease against the dollar. The pound was supported by the UK manufacturing activity strong data – the PMI index rose up to 55.5 in October from 51.8 in September while it was expected to see a decrease by 51.3.

The pair USD/JPY was traded within the overall market sentiment and also remained in the narrow side range. The Japan stock markets Nikkei index decline put slight pressure on the dollar. However, the US dollar leveled these losses and was able to achieve a slight increase by the end of the day in the European and American sessions.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market is still under the ECB's statements impression to continue easing policy at the same time the Fed is going to start the policy tightening. There was nothing interesting in the ECB President M. Draghi's performance yesterday. He said that the inflation must be neither too high nor too low; the further stimulation measures should be reviewed at the December meeting; he was also concerned about the emerging markets economic growth prospects.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance of 1.1050 limits the pair’s growth. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The demand for the pound turned out to be short lived, the strong resistance levels to which the pair jumped cooled down the bulls, in addition the investors are cautious on the eve of this week important events which could influence to the further cable movement. Traders wait for the Bank of England's meeting whose results will be known on Thursday as well as the US labor market report that is coming on Friday.

The first support is at 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

We have a confirmed buy signal now as the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downward, the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The pair will continue the upward movement till it stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing it will reach the level of 1.5460 first. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair remained in a narrow sideways. The greenback was supported by its own economy news and the grown Treasuries. There was a day off in Japan yesterday that is why the yen was traded under the external events influence and it is likely to remain in the formed sideways, waiting for the main event of the week - the NFP in the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen upwards. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair wants to test the level of 121.60. Still it has to break the level 121.30 first. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

Investors continue to wait for the new guidelines. There was a steady growth demand for the dollar yesterday – the US dollar rose against the euro and the yen, the dollar recorded relatively neutral results against the pound at the beginning of the trades still it strengthened against the "cable" in the evening. The dollar was supported by the Janet Yelen speech. Now the number of traders who believe that the Fed will raise the interest rates in December is increasing and it supports the increased demand for the dollar.

The ECB and the Fed monetary policy divergence as well as the ECB President M. Draghi’s expectations pushed the euro for small-volume sales as the market was afraid of verbal intervention. M. Draghi's words did not put strong pressure on the single currency; according to his statements it will be necessary to revise the monetary policy stimulation at the December meeting. He sees downside economic growth and the inflation downside risks.

The British pound was under pressure from the dollar part. The unpleasant moment for the pound could become the UK service sector economic data. We expected the PMI index growth to 54.5 after 53.3 in September and, taking into consideration the market mood, connected with the probability of BoE "hawkish" statements supported the pound.

On Wednesday the Australian dollar strengthened amid the September trade deficit reduction and the retail sales steady growth. The RBA left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 2% at the Tuesday meeting, despite the strong decline expectations in response to the third quarter inflation moderate increase.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair EUR/USD was declining the whole day breaking through one support level after another. The reasons for this decline are both fundamental and technical. The US employment significant growth altogether with Janet Yellen speeches supported the dollar. As we know the European Central Bank monetary policy easing and the 50% chance of the December Fed rate hike are already accounted by the market.

The first support is at the level of 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0730. The resistance levels are 1.0870 and 1.0925.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

As we expected the pair fell. The targets 1.0925 and 1.0870 are fulfilled. The new decrease target is the level of 1.0800. In case of a rebound the pair can return to 1. 0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the quarterly inflation report, the monetary policy decision and the Monetary Committee meeting minutes today. There will be the Mark Carney's press conference after all releases. Perhaps the Bank of England will indicate that market expectations regarding the rate changes became too soft, if it happens, the news can support the pound. In the case the pair may rise to 1.55. Kristin Forbes may join those who support the rate increase.
The first support is at 1.5300, the second one is at 1.5240. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a confirmed and weak buy signal now as the price entered the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is horizontal; the Kijun-sen is directed upwards. The pair will continue the upward movement till it stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing it will reach the level of 1.5460 first. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Demand for the dollar is based on expectations about the December Fed rate hike. The Japanese economic data showed the monetary base growth slowdown in October 32.5% y/y against the earlier 35.1% y/y when it was expected an increase to 36.2% y/y. This message and the Japan stock market growth supported the dollar against the yen for a short time. The market was waiting for the US session, hoping to get guidance from the US statistics and the Fed speeches.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen upwards. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair wants to test the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro fell against the dollar, the yen and the British pound. Not only the US messages put pressure on the euro. The European bloc news also reduced the demand for the euro. The Markit service sector indicators last estimate showed the initial data correction towards an increase in the euro area and Germany as a whole. The October service sector purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 54.1 from 54.2 and to 54.5 from 55.2 in the largest European economy. Accordingly, composite indicators were reduced, including also the manufacturing sector data.

The British pound was also sold against the dollar on the yesterday's trades, but in this case, the main factor was the pressure caused by the US economic data and the Fed governor statements. The UK economic statistics has given good results on the service sector activity that is the main economic field. According to the Markit Company, the UK service sector PMI (PMI) rose up to 54.9 in October from 53.3 in September when the forecast assumed that it would be decreased only to 54.5. This increase could signal that the 3rd quarter national economy slowdown could be temporary for the first time since June.

The pair USD/JPY continued to rise and has risen to the new intraday highs. Additional support for the dollar against the Japanese currency came from the US economic data and the Fed speech. Yesterday Japan did not publish anything important.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the September euro area retail sales and the Germany industrial sector orders data was the most interesting news. The sales dynamics is positive, but it unlikely will support the European currency, taking into consideration that the market is definitely guided by the Fed and the ECB multi-directional policy. Technical factors can somewhat support the single currency as the pair fell to the strong support level.

The first support is at the level of 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0730. The resistance levels are 1.0870 and 1.0925.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stopped its decrease at the level of 1.0870 where it is trying to consolidate. We believe it will remain at this level till the tomorrow’s NFP. The further EUR/USD direction wholly depends on the news. The decrease target is the level of 1.0800. In case of a rebound the pair may return to 1. 0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency fell after the Bank of England cut its inflation forecasts without changing its monetary policy. The pound fell by 0.65% to 1.5282 against the US dollar. The inflation forecast was revised mainly due to the oil prices and imports fall, as well as the fourth quarter GDP growth and the first quarter of 2016 will be reduced.

The first support is at 1.5200, the second one is at 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5240, the next one is at 1.5300.

We have a confirmed and strong sell signal now. The pair is below the Cloud. The GBP/USD is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The pair shall decrease until it stays below the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pound’s fall was stopped at the level of 1.5200. We expect a short-term growth back to 1.5240 or maybe 1.5300. The decrease target is the level of 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan did not publish anything important yesterday. The pair continued its growth after the Jennet Yellen statements awaiting for the US labor market report which will be released tomorrow. The report is expected with good results for the US dollar. The Fed top manager speeches gave additional impulse for the dollar purchases.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen upwards. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair continued its growth. The growth target is the point of 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The whole last week the dollar was in demand and has increased. The pound was an outsider last week, it fell against the dollar and other majors after it became clear that the Bank of England would not soon increase the interest rates.

The US currency strengthened against the yen amid the growing expectations about the US policy tightening. The pair was under the US statistics influence. There was not so much statistical data, the last week unemployment benefits information pointed to the jobless claims increase by 16 thousand to 276 thousand which was worse the expected 260 thousand. But it did not upset the market, because this level is attesting the labor market improvement. The NFP came out better then expected. That again supported the dollar. The data came higher than expected 185 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 271 thousand.

The dollar suffered slight losses within the USD/JPY that were caused, obviously, by the technical factors, which provided support to the European currency at the strong support levels. The Fed top management speeches had little impact on the market events as the most speeches did not affect the monetary policy topic, but the banking system regulatory issues. However, the Atlanta Fed President Lockhart D. allowed himself some hints regarding the December interest rates increase, saying that there will be more reasons to increase the rate on the eve of the December.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro area consumer prices fell by 0.1% in September, but in general it showed zero dynamics in October, despite the asset purchase program worth 60 billion euros per month which the ECB has launched 7 months ago to revitalize the inflation growth. The Germany manufacturing sector orders have also showed the third month decline in a row. The weak data reinforced concerns about the China slowdown and other key emerging markets decline started to have a negative impact on the European largest economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The NFP came out with better than the forecast results. That news supported the dollar. The NFP gave the pair an additional impetus downwards. The first downward movement target is 1.0630. Still pullbacks towards 1.0800 are possible.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The "cable" has fallen against all of its major opponents after the BoE broke investors' hopes for an early policy tightening that supported the pound in recent years. The Bank of England left the key rates unchanged at the level of 0.5% and the immutability securities purchase fund worth $375 billion pounds. The pound fell after the regulator comments that signaled that the UK monetary policy tightening necessity has decreased amid the global economy deterioration until mid-2016 and perhaps until the beginning of 2017.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The last week news background sent a pound to a knock-down. The pair fell from the level of 1.5400, breaking several levels on its way. After such a strong fall we expect a pullback and a consolidation. The possible rebound targets are the levels of 1.5100, 1.5150 and 1.5200. The southern movement target is 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The pair continued its growth and showed small increase to the previous highs by the end of the day. The dollar keeps supporting the pair when it got support amid the positive releases after the regulator's statements about the US possible monetary policy tightening. The BoJ governor H. Kuroda said that the central bank would examine the economic changes and would make the optimal decisions at each meeting in order to achieve the inflation of 2% as soon as possible. It sounded like the willingness to increase the quantitative easing if necessary that put pressure on the yen.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The dollar within the USD/JPY is growing. The growth target is the level of 123.80, still we do not exclude a consolidation and rebounds down to the levels of 122.40 and 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.