"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the German government bonds yields growth relative to their US counterparts. The European currency continued to strengthen in the pair with the US dollar as investors found no support in the American economic fundamental publication. However the pair decreased by the end of the trades.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat. The oil prices decline has not allowed the British currency to take advantage from the US consumer confidence weak data.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in the flat amid the quotations moderate decrease in the world leading stock markets. Nevertheless the trades closed with the pair’s decrease.

This week the US Federal Reserve meeting is in the center of our attention. There are concerns about the possible stock market collapse amid the rates increase. The reason for the rate increase can be the core inflation growth from 1.8% y/y to 1.9% y/y which is published on Wednesday. The Fed officials have repeatedly stated that it is not necessary to wait for the exact target of 2.0% to raise interest rates.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The July Eurozone industrial production moderately positive data may support the European currency in the short term. The data came out better then forecasted 0,3%: in fact it showd 0,6%. Meanwhile, the bond market is sending bearish signals: the Germany and the US bond yields are again increasing which reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness.

The price continued its upward movement. There was a short-term resistance level of 1.1325 breakthrough. Then the pair fell under this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1410 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize in the range of 48.00 -50.50. This factor has a negative impact on the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The UK government bond yields show a moderate growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts that supports the British currency.

The pair is trading in a flat. After the resistance level of 1.5460 the price tested the support level of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5550. After breaking 1.5550 the buyers may go to 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Friday BSI large manufacturing business conditions strong report indicates the manufacturing sector business activity growth which is a positive factor for the Japanese economy and may support the national currency in the short term. In addition, the US and the Japanese government bond yields are declining that reduces the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets.

The price started a weak correction. The pair broke through th support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a calm trading in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of this week. Almost all the major pairs remained within their ranges as traders continue to be nervous anticipating the Fed.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the Brent crude oil decline by 3%. The only notable macroeconomic release was the euro area industrial production report which was significantly higher than expected. The reaction to it was minimal as the market sentiments and the foreign stock exchanges dynamics are playing the single currency driver role.

The GBP/USD has sharply fallen. Earlier it symbolically strengthened amid the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The currency faced with the increased volatility because of “the Central Bank race": today the Bank of England like the Fed is inclined to interest rates increase.

The pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the capital flight from the "risky assets" into the funding currency. This week the Bank of Japan decided not to change the monetary policy course, saying that the economy and inflation can be recovered with the current incentives. By the end of the trades the pair strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There were not great changes on the debt market at the beginning of the week: the Germany and the US government bond yields were in the flat. The Germany business climate data, presented by the Zew Institute, were of particular interest. The index decreased more then the forecasted median: 12,1 vs 18,4. The index was 25,0 in August. Investors received the US retail sales report which is expected to reach the consensus forecast amid the household income growth and the unemployment reduction. However, the growth was 0,2% vs forecasted 0,3%.

The price started the weak downward correction. After a short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1325 the pair tested the support level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1325 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1410 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

There was the UK government bond yields increase in the debt market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will contribute to the British currency demand. The market attention will be focused on the UK inflation report which is expected to reach 0.0% after the previous 0.1%. the data came out at the forecasted median.

The pound exchange rate cannot continue its upward movement. After the level of 1.5460 testing the pair pound/dollar sharply fell and broke through the support level of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5390, 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event in the morning. We expect the moderate positive comments by Mr. Kuroda. The BoJ kept the monetary politic unchanged. Yesterday we saw the bearish sentiment prevalence in the world leading exchanges which also contributes to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price continues its weak downward movement. The pair fell below the support level of 120.40 but by the end of the trades the pair returned at this level.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar rose against most currencies despite the US weak economic reports. Investors took a wait and see attitude ahead of the Federal Reserve System forthcoming meeting results.

The EUR/USD pair decreased amid the August US retail sales positive data. In addition, the Zew report put pressure on the euro to which the German economic confidence index weakened sharply in September having reached the 10-month low. The business sector sentiment index fell to 12.1 points in September compared to 25.0 points in August. However the euro slightly increased by the end of the trades.

The GBP/USD had decreased amid the US two year Treasury bond yields increase. In addition, the UK inflation report was in the center of attention having shown the August consumer price index growth by 0.2 %, still they were unchanged compared with the previous year. The last change coincided with the experts’ forecasts. Nevertheless, the pair pound/dollar sharply grew.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY increased amid the bullish sentiment in the Japanese and the US stock markets.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the US and Germany bond yields moderate growth which is a positive factor for the dollar as it increases investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Traders did not hurry to open new deals ahead of the US inflation release. The CPI release was expected with the positive data. The CPI came out at the level of forecasted median 0,1%.

The price resumed the upward movement after the support level of 1.1260 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1410, the next one is 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK Core CPI indicator is showing the inflation growth by 0.42% compared with the previous month which indicates the UK labor market positive trend. The Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.5% since the beginning of the week which will provide support to the US currency as this factor is not obvious in the pair GBP/USD quotations.

The pound exchange rate began its downward movement, but the support level of 1.5390 was short-term. The pair sharply increased and broke through the levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Yesterday the US positive macroeconomic statistics was published. The statistics caused the two year Treasury bond securities growth which reflects the Fed rate expectations. The bond securities growth ahead of the monetary control meeting is a positive factor for the US currency. The profitability increased to the level of 0.8%, having set the fresh four-year high.

The price is correcting against the weak downward movement. The pair grew and the resistance level of 120.40 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has fallen to the three weeks minimum against the most major currencies. The US economic data turned out to be weaker than expected. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at the September meeting.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 11 thousand having fallen to 264 thousand.

The EUR/USD has increased amid the oil quotations growth after the US crude oil stockpiles positive publication. Last week stocks fell slightly by more than 2 million barrels which supported the demand for the “black gold".

The pair GBP/USD had increased by the end of the day. The pound has significantly strengthened against the US dollar, having offset all positions that had been lost the other day. The currency was supported by the UK labor market strong data. As it became known, the UK workers’ average earnings (excluding bonuses) have significantly increased for three months (to July), having registered the highest rates for more than six years.

The pair USD/JPY had grown. The yen has significantly decreased against the US dollar, having reached the minimum at the same time. The news that the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization has revised the world economic growth forecast over the next 2 years put pressure on the yen. However the pair decreased after the Fed’s meeting results publication.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Federal Reserve monetary policy two-day meeting results was the main event of the day. The August Eurozone revised inflation data were published yesterday. The report recorded the index output into the negative territory. This factor is negative for the euro as the deflation threat may again rise rumors about the ECB possible program expansion.

After a short-term consolidation the pair euro/dollar sharply grew and tested the resistance level of 1.1410.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1530, 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The FOMC announced the monetary policy two-day meeting results. The FOMC did not change the rate. Traders expected the retail sales positive data. The forecasts proved to be true in month terms: in fact 0.2% vs. 0.2%. In annual terms the data were in the red zone: 3.7% against the expected 3.8% whereas previously there was 4.1%.

The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend. The pair grew above the resistance level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders expected the US Federal Reserve to tighten the monetary policy. The Fed published its decision to keep the rate at the level of 0,25%.The US government bond yields have been greatly increasing for the last two trading days which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Yesterday the Nasdaq index demonstrated the weakest growth from the major stock indices which signals about the investors’ exit from the risky assets.

The price resumed its upward movement. However, the dollar sharply fell by the end of the trades. The pair tested the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 121.60 the buyers may go to 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week all traders’ attention was focused on the FOMC meeting results. Investors wondered whether the Fed would tighten the monetary policy amid the positive macroeconomic releases or postpone the decision, because of the China financial instability. The Fed did not change the monetary policy which triggered the US dollar sales wave. However, by the end of the day the dollar strengthened.

The US dollar has sharply fallen against the euro after the US Federal Reserve left the short-term rates unchanged at the same level of 0-0.25% after many weeks of debate. Nevertheless, the Friday’s trades closed with the pair’s euro/dollar sharp decrease.

The pound was traded mixed against the dollar in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The UK sales were in the center of attention. The National Statistics Office report showed the retail sales growth in August, accelerating at the same time rates as compared to the previous month. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the decrease after the previous growth.

The pair USD/JPY had decreased. On Friday after the Bank of Japan meeting minutes’ the yen has grown. However, the dollar slightly increased by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US monetary regulator was afraid of the weak exports and expressed its concern about the economic growth possible restriction amid the UK recent events. The FOMC raised its employment estimates, compared with the June forecast. At the same time the current year inflation forecast was lowered as well as the GDP estimates for 2016 and 2017.

The price could not continue the downward movement and has resumed the upward trend. However the resistance level of 1.1410 breakthrough was short-term. The pair returned in the level of 1.1325 area by the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US Federal Reserve decision to refrain from interest rates raising caused the Treasury bond yields decline. The UK and US government bond yields were expected to fall. The demand for the commodity market also contributes to the dollar quotations decline as the raw material assets cost is denominated in the US currency.

The pound continues the upward movement and completed the first target of 1.5550. The growth to the level of 1.5670 led to the price rebound downwards in the support level of 1.5550 area.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670. the next one is the level of 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Fed's decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged put pressure on the dollar. The Bank of Japan monetary policy last meeting minutes were published. We expected the demand for the world leading stock markets corporate bonds which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price started its strong corrective movement. After the support level of 119.20 testing the pair rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.40 will be opened.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The SNB left interest rates unchanged at the level of 0.75% in line with the experts' forecasts. The central bank also kept the target range for three-month the Libor rate in the range from -1.25% to -0.25%. The Swiss franc rate was still high despite some decrease. Also it was said that the negative interest rates and the SNB willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market reduced some pressure on the franc.

The pair dollar/franc tried to continue the downward movement. The pair tested the support level of 0.9540 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The previous trading week ended with the US currency growth - the dollar index basket (USDX) has decreased by 0.78%. At the beginning of the new week the dollar continued to strengthen. However, the dollar is at risk of the macroeconomic positions weakening. The August durable goods orders volume is expected to decline by 2.0%, the second quarter GDP final assessment will be published on Friday which is the current 3.7% (2.7% y/y), still it can decrease as the Fed itself reduced the annual GDP forecast from 2.5% to 2.3% in the latest release.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased after the Moody credit agency decision to decrease the France sovereign rating amid the economic growth slowdown. Perhaps the deteriorated Eurozone payments balance played its role that showed reduction from 24.9 billion euros to 22.6 billion in July as some other currencies did not correct by 100% from the Friday's strengthening.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations decrease amid the "black gold" market sales.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trading day in the green zone - despite the stock markets sales, the Japanese currency failed to strengthen its position against the dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and the Germany government bonds yields have stabilized after the Fed's decision not to change the monetary policy. On the contrary, the world leading stock markets finished the last week trades in the "red zone" which is a positive factor for the euro as a funding currency. Investors' attention is directed to the August US secondary market housing sales publication which was expected 5.52M vs. 5.59M. the data came out at the level of 5.31M. On Monday the pair euro/dollar continued its decrease.

The price continued a correctional movement. The supporl levels of 1.1410, 1.325 and 1.1260 were broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target – 1.1150. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.1050 will become the next one.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are increasing in the debt market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the British assets investments’ attractiveness. The cross-rate EUR/GBP decrease is also a positive factor for the British currency against US dollar.

The pound exchange rate started its correction and broke through the support level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets sales point out to the lack of investors' risk appetite. "The capital flows analysis also indicates the interest decline in the "risky assets". The debt market dynamics also confirms this trend: the US and Japan government bond yields are declining that reduces investments’ attractiveness in the US assets.

The dollar started to strengthen and the pair continued its correction upwards and tested the resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The beginning of the week was marked by the US currency growth. The September US Richmond Fed manufacturing index was published, the forecast was 4 against 0, but in fact was -5.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Germany government bond yields decrease regarding to the US and the UK counterparts. The Germany producer price index fell by 0.5% in August (the forecast was 0.3%). The euro decline can be justified by the France Moody's rating change from "Aa1" to "Aa2" because of the weak economic growth and high public debt.

The pair GBP/USD had finished the trades with the quotations decline amid the Rightmove house prices index weak data. According to the Rightmove portal operator real estate brokerage, the UK initial housing prices increased by 0.9% (2.55 thousand pounds) - up to 294.834 thousand pounds in September 2015. The dollar strengthened against the pound and the pair continues its decline.

The pair USD JPY had increased amid the "risky assets" demand in the world. Japanese banks were closed due to the national holidays. There are holidays from Monday to Wednesday in Japan. The yen trend is in line with the stock market growth, still the Bank of Japan investors will unlikely dare to attack the upper limit within the strategic range. However, there was the bearish sentiment predominance in the pair by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European and the North American stock markets positive dynamics plays into the bears’ hands as the demand for the "risky assets" has a negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. The bond market trend is also against the euro bulls: the German 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increase the investments attractiveness into the US assets.

The pair slightly corrected at the beginning of the trades. Then the pair sharply fell and the support level of 1.1150 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1050 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Today we can highlight only the August public sector borrowings release. This indicator growth is a negative factor for the economy as it indicates the tax revenues decline. On the contrary, there was a positive trend in the debt market: the UK government bond yields are growing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets.

The pound exchange continued the downward movement and broke through the support level of 1.5460 and 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5300, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics were not published. The Japan financial markets have been closed for the second consecutive trading day. We can analyze only the US Treasury bond yields in this situation which increased by 6 basis points to the level of 2.21%. The moderately positive sentiment in the world leading stock markets signaled the carry trade transactions growth which is a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency.

There was bearish sentiment predominance. The pair fell below the level of 120.40 and consolidated.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target – 119.20. After fixing below the first target, the level of 118.40 will become the next one.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market sentiment has been returned to the usual state about the Fed rate hike expectations. The Central Bank representatives Lockhart and Bullard bluntly mentioned about the possible rate change in October. D. Yellen in her last statement also said that there were no problems with the tightening program launch in October. The US currency continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) has increased by 0.43%.

the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Germany and the US government bond yields growth. The German automaker stock prices collapse had strong influence on the euro decline having lost 19.1% for the day because of the ongoing scandal over the environmental standards violations for engines and the fine imposed on the company to 18.75 billion dollars. By the end of the day the pair slightly corrected upwards.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK industrial orders negative statistics. Investors reacted painfully to the UK public sector borrowings increase to 11.3 billion pounds (vs. 8.7 billion) in August and the industrial orders decrease to -7 from the forecasted 0 in September.

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating after a slight growth. Earlier the pair had decreased amid the investors’ escape from the "risky assets". It is connected with the Asian stock market decrease and the China negative statistics.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German PMI industrial sector index has been showing the moderately positive trend for the last three months amid the ECB ultra-soft policy which has already started to bear its fruits. Meanwhile, the US and the Germany government bond yields have been increasing for three consecutive trading days, increasing the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets.

The price corrected upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The trend is not in favor of the British currency in the credit market: the US and the UK government bond yields are increasing. The China negative macroeconomic statistics put pressure on the commodity assets. In this context, the Brent petroleum quotations decrease has a negative impact on the pound rate.

The British pound sharply decreased and broke through the support level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5100 and 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen is consolidating after a slight increase. There was the investors’ escape from the "risky assets" that will support the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The carry trade transactions closure and high-yield cross rate in the stock markets has traditionally supported the demand for the Japanese currency. The Japan financial markets were closed on Wednesday on the bank holidays.

The pair is consolidating below the resistance level of 120.40 that was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 119.20, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number increased to 267 thousand. The forecasted median was 271 thousand vs previous 264 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD had increased by the end of the day amid the EUR/GBP growth as well as the short positions profit-taking. The ECB President Mario Draghi said that "if necessary," the ECB may change the quantitative easing rate. The investors’ reaction was sluggish, but sufficient to close the euro with a plus. Also investors reacted vaguely to the euro area business activity weak indicators. The September manufacturing PMI fell from 53.3 to 52.0 while it was expected 52,0, the service sector PMI fell from 54.4 to 54.0 while it was expected 54.2. The Markit manufacturing PMI came out worse than expected with the preliminary assessment for September: 53.0 vs. 53.3, but, nevertheless, it is the same level as in August.

The pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK government bond yields decline relative to the US counterparts. According to the trading day results, the British pound fell. There is only an 18% chance the Fed will raise interest rates in October and 41% in December. After the decrease the pair is consolidating.

The pair USD/JPY had symbolically decreased amid the bearish sentiment in the US stock market which has caused demand for the yen as a funding currency.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The IFO institute published the Germany business climate report. Investors waited it within the consensus-forecast to 108.0. In fact the figure rose up to 108.5 against 108.4. Now the debt market dynamics is against the euro bulls: the German 10-year government bond yields are declining in relation to their US and UK counterparts which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the European assets.

The price continued to correct and now it tested the level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The course of the trades was determined by two key factors: the debt and commodity markets dynamics. Now the US and the UK interest differentials are clearly not in favor of the latter. Investors consider about the quotes the fact that we should not expect the UK economic growth pace in the third quarter. The industrial orders sharp decline clearly points out to that fact.

The pound exchange rate stopped the strong downward movement and broke through the support level of 1.5300 and tested the support level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japanese banks have started its work after the three-day break. Yesterday there was the upward trend in the European and North American stock markets, but the market dynamics as a whole indicates that the short-term price growth is a correctional movement. On the other hand, the commodity markets negative dynamics will support the US currency as the raw materials cost was denominated in dollars.

The pair USD/JPY decreased after a consolation. The pair tested the support level of 119/20 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 119.20 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 118.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The August US durable goods orders were published; the general Durable Goods Orders figure was expected with -2.0% after the July growth by 1.9%,. The data came out at the forecasted median. The Core Durable Goods Orders root index was expected with an increase by 0.1% after 0.4% in July. The data came out less then forecasted median at the level 0,0% The new home sales data - the forecast for August was 515 thousand against 507 thousand the previous month. The data came out at the level 552 thousand.

The pair stopped its weak upward movement and fell below the level of 0.9750. Then the pair slightly grew and tested this level that is a resistance now.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

By the end of the week the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the German government bond yields growth relative to the US and the UK counterparts. The Germany Ifo business sentiment rose up from 108.4 to 108.5 in September against the decline expectations of 107.8, the Italy retail sales rose by 0.4% in July. The ECB LTRO program concessional loans volume amounted to only 15.5 billion euros against the expected 50.3 billion and 73.8 billion euros in the last deployment.

The August US durable goods purchase orders were worse than expected. The basic indicator, excluding the transportation component has not shown any increase (0.0%) against the expected 0.2%, total orders fell by 2.0% as it was expected. Against this background, the euro was able to start its correctional movement upwards.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had symbolically decreased after the US primary market housing sales positive release for August. The US new homes sales jumped from 522K to 552K (+ 5.7%) – such a similar indicator was only in March 2008. Also, initial jobless claims figures continue to please investors: 267K vs. 271K. Pound continues to decrease against the dollar.

The USD/JPY pair had decreased amid the capital escape from the "risky assets". This is due to the fact that the yen has become more attractive for investors.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The stock market carry trade transactions closure is supporting the single European currency amid the ECB ultra-loose monetary policy. On the contrary, the commodity market dynamics indicates the demand for the dollar: oil and industrial metals are in the "red zone".

Investors' attention is directed to the August US GDP final data (the previous value was 3.7% q/q, the forecast was 3.7% q/q). In fact it is 3.9% q/q.

The price resumed its downward movement. After testing the support level of 1.1150 the bears managed to break it. However, it was a short-term breakout and the bulls managed to take north course and return the instrument above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1050 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0925 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

On the eve the UK 10-year government bond yields declined relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the British assets investments’ attractiveness. As a matter of fact it deprives the pound strong support. The commodity market negative dynamics also plays into the bears hands. The key commodities, such as oil, copper, aluminum, natural gas are showing the downward trend which positively affects the dollar.

The pound exchange rate continues to weaken the downward movement. Bears managed to overcome the support level of 1.5200 and keep the southern direction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5100 first, having overcome the first target the price might go to 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The official data showed that the Tokyo CPI fell at the annualized rate by 0.1% in September less than the expected decline by 0.2%. The Tokyo base CPI, excluding prices for fresh food fell to the annualized rate by 0.2% this month in line with expectations.

The 10-year Japanese government bond yields which reflect investors' expectations about the August inflation decreased by 2 symbolic bps.

The price started the upward movement. Having broken the resistance of 120.40 the pair went higher. However, at the end of trading the bears were able to change the movement to the south. The price was fixed above the mark of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to buy with the first target – 121.60. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The number of the net speculative positions from CFTC was published at the end of the week. The previous figure is 3.8, this week is 1.9.

Meanwhile, America published the second quarter GDP final changed indicator: (the previous value was 3.7% q/q, the forecast was 3.7% q/q. In fact it is 3.9% q/q.

The pair dollar/franc resumed its upward movement. However, at the end of the week, the Bears managed to test the support level of 0.9750. But to get the price lower this mark was not possible, thus the price has remained above that level.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.