LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The Euro continues falling against the USD amid poor macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone. The latest data shows that the second quarter GDP growth in the eurozone was only at 0.3% (forecasted 0.4% growth). The yearly growth is expected to be at around 1.5% for 2015, and 1.9% for the next year. The recovery of the leading economies, such as Germany, France and Italy is also sluggish, which points out to the necessity to maintain soft monetary policies.
Today, the data on Housing Starts in the US is due that could affect the movement in the pair.

Support and resistance

In case of the breakdown of the level of 1.1047 (5/8 Murray), the next target becomes the level of 1.0989, where the Moving Average with 200 period stands.
The nearest support level is at 1.1047 (5/8 Murray).
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1108 (6/8 Murray).

Trading tips

Open short positions after the breakdown of the level of 1.1047 with the target at 1.0966 and stop-loss at 1.1070.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: flat until news releases from US

Current trend

Market participants are waiting for today’s publications from the US on the Consumer Price Index for July and the FOMC Minutes. Most likely, markets are going to remain calm until then with volatility increase thereafter.
During the week, poor data on Retail Sales for June came out in Switzerland that showed a decrease by 0.9% (forecasted a decrease by 0.6%).
From the fundamental point of view, the pair USD/CHF is supported by the economy growth slowdown in Switzerland, a possibility of the Swiss NB market intervention, negative interest rates in Switzerland and the strengthening USD. The pair is pressured by the safe-haven currency status of the Frank.

Support and resistance

The pair broke out the upper border of the channel 0.9720-0.9120 and is growing towards year high at 1.0100. Long positions remain viable in the medium-term as long as the price stays above the level of 0.9500 (EMA144 and EMA200 area on the daily chart).
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic turned to signal sales.
Support levels: 0.9690, 0.9650, 0.9600, 0.9550, 0.9500.
Resistance levels: 0.9790, 0.9890.

Trading tips

Open short positions from the level of 0.9720 with targets at 0.9680, 0.9660 and stop-loss at 0.9745, and after the breakdown of the level of 0.9600 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.9550, 0.9500.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the levels of 0.9650, 0.9620 with targets at 0.9750, 0.9790, 0.9850 and stop-loss at 0.9580.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The pair has been strengthening slightly; several times, corrections broke the upward trend but the price continued growing.
Today, macroeconomic statistics are likely to support the pair. UK Retail Sales index should grow, while US data is expected to further weaken US dollar.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators support the pair growth. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards; the price is moving along the upper MA.
Support levels: 1.5649 (middle MA), 1.5577 (lower MA).
Resistance levels: 1.5722 (upper MA).

Trading tips

Open short positions when the price reaches and rebounds down from the level of 1.5722. Set take-profit at 1.5649. The pair is likely to continue declining further to 1.5577. Once this level is reached, open long positions with the target at 1.5722.

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: investors may take profits

Current trend

Today, during the Asian session, gold continued strengthening. However, in the European session, a decline started as profitable positions are closed at the end of the week.

Support and resistance

On the daily and 4-hour charts, OsMA ans Stochastic still give buy signals. However, the signs that indicators may turn to short positions have appeared. While the pair is below the resistance level of 1168.00 (38.2% Fibonacci and EMA144 on the daily chart) medium-term short positions remain relevant.
After the breakout of 1168.00 the pair continues growing to 1183.00 (EMA200). And the consolidation above 1193.00 (50% Fibonacci) would definitely return the upward trend.
If the pair declines to 1145.00 and consolidates below 1136.00, it may further fall to year lows at 1085.00.
Support levels: 1145.00, 1136.00, 1115.00.
Resistance levels: 1168.00, 1183.00, 1193.00.

Trading tips

Open short positions from 1168.00, 1164.00, 1158.00, 1152.00 with targets at 1145.00, 1136.00 and further targets at 1125.00, 1115.00. Set stop-loss at 1176.00.
Open long positions and place pending buy orders from 1135.00 and after the breakout of 1183.00.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: declining prices

Current trend

Brent crude oil fell below $45 per barrel for the first time since March 2009. The prices keep falling for the fourth month and broke down the psychologically important level of 46.50 (2014 lows).
Amongst the main reasons of the fall are: the Chinese stock market crisis, the Yuan devaluation, supply on world markets that exceeds demand, continuing output increase by OPEC countries, expectations of Iranian oil to reach the world markets soon. The crisis in China can affect the world economy growth, which will further pressure the demand for oil.
The following factors can prevent a further fall in prices: a reduction in output quotes by OPEC countries, a decision by the Fed not to increase the interest rate, an end of the Chinese stock markets crisis.

Support and resistance

OsMA and Stochastic remain in the negative zones on all charts.
Support levels: 43.00, 41.50, 40.00.
Resistance levels: 45.50, 48.10, 50.00, 52.00.

Trading tips

Open short positions from the current levels and from 45.20, 45.50, 45.90 with targets at 43.00, 41.50 and stop-loss at 46.20.
Alternative scenario and long positions are not considered.

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The XAU/USD pair is trading below the important resistance level of 1156.25. If the price fails to consolidate above it in the nearest future, a decline to 1140.63 should be expected.
According to the analysts, the gold price may start growing if the situation in China becomes worse. In early trade on Tuesday, China's stock index lost about 6.3%. If the government does not propose any measures, the fall may accelerate.
International rail freight transport activity as well as Manufacturing PMI fell to the 6-year lows at 47.1 points. Leading indexes of the EU economy are also declining, having lost 4.5% yesterday. Thus, safe haven appeal of gold may increase.

Support and resistance

Support level is 1.171.88.
The nearest resistance level is 1140.63.

Trading tips

Open short positions when the price breaks down the level of 1150.00 with the target at 1140.22 and stop-loss at 1156.00.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Tuesday, investors focused their attention on China. Shanghai stock market continued declining, so the authorities had to take measures to stabilize country’s economy. In particular, the People's Bank of China lowered the key interest rate to 4.6%. It is the fifth interest rate cut since November. This decision supported the American currency, as it eased the fears that the Federal Reserve may delay raising US interest rates. Moreover, positive US Consumer confidence statistics strengthened the USD.
Amid these factors, yesterday, the EUR was declining and reached the lowest mark at 1.1396. By the evening, the pair corrected to 1.1516 and lost about 100 points from the opening price.
Today, Durable Goods Orders statistics are released in the US. A 0.4% decline is expected which may affect the USD and allow the EUR to gain back some of its losses.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded from the middle MA and is heading to the upper border.
MACD is in the positive zone, below its signal line, that, on the contrary, indicates a forthcoming downward movement.
The nearest support levels are 1.1410, 1.1016 and 1.0854.
The nearest resistance level is 1.1710.

Trading tips

Open long positions when the price reaches 1.1615 with the target at 1.1685 and stop-loss at 1.1590.
Open short positions when the price reaches 1.1395 with the target at 1.1330 and stop-loss at 1.1420.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: stock markets recover

Current trend

After a sharp fall on Monday by more than 500 points, the USD/JPY pair is growing for the third day.
The world stock market indices are recovering and the USD is strengthening. At the same time, oil, commodities and gold prices grew. At present, dynamics in currencies pairs are going to be determined purely by developments in the stock markets.
The pair is also supported by positive macroeconomic data from the US, expectations of the interest rate increase in the US, Japanese economy slowdown and the difference is monetary policies between the Fed and the Bank of Japan.
Therefore, if the current tendencies continue, the USD/JPY pair keeps growing in the medium-term.

Support and resistance

The pair remains near the strong support levels at 119.10, 119.50.
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour chart give buy signals, while on the daily chart they are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 119.70, 119.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 119.10 (100% Fibonacci), 118.40.
Resistance levels: 120.70, 121.00, 121.60, 122.00, 122.35.

Trading tips

Open long positions from the current levels and from 119.70 with targets at 120.70, 121.00, 121.60, 122.00, 122.35, 123.15, 124.10, 124.50 and stop-loss at 119.40.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown and consolidation below the level of 119.10 with targets at 118.60, 117.25, 116.15.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The Pound keeps falling against the USD.
Yesterday’s fall came as the result of a number of strong publications from the US. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 271 thousands, while the GDP Price Index grew to 2.1% and exceeded forecasts. The index is one of the inflation indications and its increase may help the Fed to reach their inflation target. However, a more significant support to the USD came from the GDP increase of 3.7%, while economists expected an increase of 3.2%.
At the same time, the Housing Price Index in the UK came out at 0.3%, which was worse than forecasted 0.4%. Today’s GDP publication in the UK can give impulse to the Pound and help to gain back some of the losses against the Dollar.

Support and resistance

A divergence between the price chart and the RSI suggests a downward trend is going to reverse.
The nearest support level is at 1.5333 (7 July low).
The nearest resistance level is at 1.5502 (yesterday high).

Trading tips

Open long positions from the level of 1.5433 with the target at 1.5502 and stop-loss at 1.5333.
If disappointing GDP data comes out in the UK close positions at current prices.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Friday, the Euro continued falling against the USD amid strong macroeconomic statistics from the US that came out on Thursday. The GDP figure for the second quarter showed a 3.7% growth, which was 0.5% higher than forecasts. For investors it tells that economic slowdown in China is not going to have a big effect on the US economy. Furthermore, it restores hopes that the Fed is going to proceed with the interest rate hike in the end of the year.
Today, attention needs to be paid to the Consumer Price Index for the eurozone. Should the forecasted 0.1% be confirmed, the Euro would strengthen. In addition, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index that is due today can give an early indication of what figure to expect when the index for the country comes out.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving towards the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands, which signals an upward movement in the short-run.
MACD is also indicating a possibility of the upward movement as its histogram nearly aligned with the signal line, while still in the negative zone.
The nearest support level is 1.1016.
The nearest resistance level is 1.1710.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1315 with the target at 1.1390 and stop-loss at 1.1295.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1125 with the target at 1.1030 and stop-loss at 1.1420, and after the breakdown of the level of 1.1016 with the target at 1.0955 and stop-loss at 1.1035.