Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 28th April 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.



EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday the US Flash Services PMI came in at 57.8 in April, erasing much of the 2.1 point rise to 59.2 in March. It compares to 55.0 in April a year ago. This moved EURUSD up by 70 pips before the pair reacted lower from the upper 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band. Yesterday’s daily candle was a relatively narrow one as market participants are hesitant before the FOMC meeting that starts today. EURUSD is still trading below resistance levels (meaning the DXY trades above support). Next minor daily support at 1.0820 and resistance at yesterday’s daily high at 1.0934. As EURUSD is trading at resistance I don’t expect a lot of strength but rather subdued trading that could turn into weakness ahead of the FOMC meeting.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

While USD is trading sideways at support one currency stands out of the crowd. This morning AUD has been strong against all the other currencies while at the time of writing the EUR has been relatively weak. After a quick overview of AUD paired charts it seems like Aussie dollar is trying to push through resistance levels. CAD is the weakest of the lot against the AUD and charts suggest that AUDCAD is in late stages of building a smallish bottoming formation. Last week’s candle was a hammer and even though the pair is at resistance there is a higher low in the four hour chart. This indicates AUDCAD is trying to push higher. Should the attempt be successful, the preferred way to trade the long side is to enter after pullbacks.

Main Macro Events Today

Japan retail sales: dropped more than expected in March compared to last year. Total sales declined 9.7% y/y versus a revised 1.7% y/y slide previously.

UK Gross Domestic Product: Consensus estimate points to a y/y decline of 0.4% at 2.6% while last previous figure was 3.0%

US April consumer confidence: the headline figure should reveal an increase to 104.0 (median 102.5) from 101.3 in March.

FOMC Meeting: The US Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. While no policy changes are expected, the focus will be on the statement and the nuances in the forward guidance language that we doubt will provide any clarity on timing of the first rate hike.




Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 28th April 2015 (Second Analysis)

AUDCAD REACTING HIGHER FROM SUPPORT.



AUDCAD, Weekly
The pair has over the past two to three weeks been testing a support area between 0.9402 and 0.9482. This test was successful and the last week’s hammer candle now points to higher prices. Moves below the 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band were rejected by the market and we there has been no close below this band since December 2014. This suggests buying interest in this pair at levels below current price action. There is some resistance ahead though, as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (at 0.9578) coincides with the high of last week’s candle while February low at 0.9590 is not far above it.



AUDCAD, Daily

Since April 20th the pair has been making higher daily lows and AUDCAD is now approaching resistance level created by the last week’s high and descending trendline. Stochastics is also getting close to levels it turned lower (together with price) the last time. I expect this will slow the pair down and could even cause it to correct lower. Nearest major support level is at 0.9467 while the next resistance level is at 0.9576. The 0.9636 resistance level coincides with the upper daily Bollinger Bands and has the 50 day MA hovering above. This suggests the level could very well work as a target for swing trades.



AUDCAD, 240 min

Price has moved beyond a resistance level at 0.9544 but has since hit the descending trendline. Stochastics and RSI are overbought and price is trading between the upper 1.5 and 2.0 stdv Bollinger Bands. The important support and resistance levels are pretty much the same as in the daily picture. There is some support at 0.9544 but it is fairly close to a higher time frame resistance levels and therefore should be judged as a minor support.

Conclusion

AUDCAD is still the strongest currency today against the major peers but has many resisting technical factors right above the current price. In short term picture this market is overbought as evidenced by the oscillators in 240 min chart and price trading at upper Bollinger Bands. This suggests that those wanting to trade this market on the long side should be careful right now and look to enter trades after pullbacks at support levels. Should there be a good sized pullback to the proximity of current levels of 50 period MA in 4h chart (0.9493) we should look for buy signals as per my teaching at webinars. Obviously being the strongest of the lot AUD can keep on rising against CAD without giving us a low risk entry but buying at a resistance is a high risk strategy. If there is a possibility to buy in proximity of a decent support (eg at 0.9500) the 0.9636 could be a reasonable Target 1 for swing trades. My Target 2 is at the next daily resistance level at 0.9700.

Trade these levels only should the price action confirm my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th April 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.



EURUSD, Daily

U.S. consumer confidence defied April gains in all other major confidence measures with a drop to 95.2 from a slightly revised 101.4 (was 101.3) in March, while cycle high was at 103.8 January. This measure was impacted by the recent bounce in gasoline prices and the petro-sector recession. This helped the USD to move lower and EURUSD higher into the resistance area. EURUSD is now trading above the 50 day SMA and inside the upper Bollinger Bands. Current price action takes place in proximity of the level (1.1035) that was able to turn the pair lower. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.0848 and 1.1035. EURUSD is moving higher for the 5th day in a row, which means that we are getting closer to the point where this market will correct lower. Therefore, price action around the release of FOMC statement should be monitored closely. This is the fourth time the market moves this high and towards the 1.1035 resistance after creating a higher low on April 13th. This lowers the probabilities of price reacting lower from the same resistance level. Therefore we should be careful and not take it granted that the market will turn lower from the same levels again. It could rally higher before reacting lower again. We should trade what we see, not what we expect.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

This morning GBP has been strong and AUD weak. Sterling has advanced most against the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar while Australian dollar’s weakness has been evident across the board. This has a lot to do with the yesterday’s AUDUSD rally taking the pair to proximity of important resistance level at 0.8033. GBPAUD hit support yesterday at 1.9100 and is now reacting higher from the level. AUDCAD hit my 0.9636 target yesterday and is now reacting lower from the Bollinger Bands above it. AUDCHF has also reached a daily pivot and is ranging in intraday time frames.

Main Macro Events Today

NZ Business Confidence: Strong economic growth and low inflation expectations kept confidence at elevated levels even though the measure declined from 35.8% to 30.2%

US Advance GDP q/q: The first quarter GDP growth is likely to be 0.8% in its first release (the Q4 2014 growth was at 2.2%). Market risk is to the downside as weaker report could delay Fed’s first rate hike.

FOMC Statement: The Fed has indicated that it will stay data dependent. September is the first likely date for a rate hike.

Federal Funds Rate: No changes expected.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: On April 22ndRBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott said the bank will ensure that monetary policy is stimulatory to support output growth above potential and help lift inflation back to target. He said that at present they are not considering any increase interest rates.



Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th April 2015 (Second Analysis)

WHEAT BULLISH AT MAJOR SUPPORT.



Wheat, Weekly

US wheat hit five year low yesterday and bounced higher as traders covered the shorts. Over the last few weeks wheat has moved lower even with dryness in the southern Plains. Now with some rain in the south the dryness worries in the north west of the country could help this bounce to turn into an uptrend. Since failing to penetrate resistance at 544 in the beginning April wheat futures have moved lower. Now that weekly Stochastics are getting oversold price is trading right above an important support level. In fact, price has bounced from 466 support yesterday suggesting that there is more upside than downside potential in this market.



Wheat, Daily

Yesterday’s rally from 466 support created a bullish hammer candle while Stochastics are showing clear bullish divergence. A pivot low from beginning of March capped yesterday’s trading in wheat and price has since then been moving right below this 478 resistance. There is some resistance at 485’5 while the next significant daily resistance area has been created between 495 and 504 by Fibonacci retracement levels and a pivot candle. In addition, the 50 day SMA is hovering at 505’7 at the time of writing.



Wheat, 240 min

In intraday charts Stochastics is overbought which ties together with the price stalling at minor resistance (478’2). As the longer term (weekly) support is just at yesterday’s low it is likely that smaller time frame resistances like this will get broken. The 50% Fibonacci level coincides with the 485’5 level and therefore suggests that in the short term picture this retracement level is more significant than others. The last completed 4h candle is another hammer pointing to higher prices.

Conclusion

Wheat is trading above support created in 2010 and bounced significantly higher the last time it touched this level. Now price action indicates that US wheat will move higher over the coming days and weeks. My short term T1 at 485’5 and T2 at 500. For those interested in longer term trading the 500 level could well be T1 and 530 T2. This bullish view would be negated if price moved below the 466 support with no signs of quick recovery.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 30th April 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD traded pretty much according to what I anticipated. I wrote yesterday: This is the fourth time the market moves this high and towards the 1.1035 resistance after creating a higher low on April 13th. This lowers the probabilities of price reacting lower from the same resistance level. Therefore we should be careful and not take it granted that the market will turn lower from the same levels again. It could rally higher before reacting lower again.

The dollar plunged through the morning session, after much weaker Q1 GDP data dented sentiment, doubly so ahead of an FOMC announcement that was already expected to lean on the dovish side. EURUSD opened just under 1.1000, and made its way to 1.1188 highs ahead of the Fed. The pair eased back slightly ahead of the statement release, before falling back on the Fed’s downgraded economic outlook, and on general profit taking. The high of 1.1188 in EURUSD was the low of 94.75 in DXY. This low coincided with a previous low and a support level from March 18th. At the time of writing EURUSD is moving above yesterday’s high and approaching the next resistance.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

The JPY strength was the theme earlier this morning. Weakest pairs throughout the morning were AUDJPY, CADJPY and NZDJPY. AUDJPY hit a resistance and is now reacting lower from it CADJPY is also reacting lower from a resistance but does not look as weak as AUDJPY. NZDJPY is trading at 50 SMA and close to lower Bollinger Bands and pivotal support. Now at the time of publishing this report it is the AUD weakness that dominates the picture while EUR has been rising against the majors with EURAUD up by over 1.5%.

Main Macro Events Today

NZ Official Cash Rate: OCR remained unchanged at 3.5%. According to governor Wheeler it would be appropriate to lower the OCR if demand weakens, and wage and price-setting outcomes settle at levels lower than is consistent with the inflation target.

BoJ Monetary Policy Statement: BoJ left policy unchanged and maintained the Y80 tln annual increase in the monetary base.

German Unemployment Change: Stabilising growth is helping labour markets across the Eurozone. German jobless numbers dropped 8K (median -10K) in April, which left the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%, as expected. The German economy is strengthening and jobless rates are at very low levels, which together with the pick up in demand will ensure sizeable wage gains this year.

Eurozone CPI y/y: No big change expected. Previous figure -0.1%.

Canadian GDP: A fall of 0.1% in February is likely after the 0.1% drop in January. Forecast risk is to the downside given the hefty declines seen across manufacturing and drop in wholesale. Energy remains the wildcard. The BoC expects flat GDP in Q1, so an as-expected report would roughly back that outlook and have no impact on the policy projection.

US Unemployment claims:Initial claims data should reveal a 290k headline, down from 295k last week and 294k in the week of April 11th. We saw the usual seasonal volatility around the Easter Holiday and claims in April look poised to average a higher 292k from 285k in March and 206k in February.



Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 30th April 2015 (Second Analysis)

EURGBP CHALLENGING 23.6% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT.



EURGBP, Weekly

EURGBP has been moving higher since it hit my target level at 0.7022 in March. EURGBP had been moving too low for too long and had reached levels that acted as resistance in several occasions from 1998 to 2006. Now March monthly candle has created a doji while the April candle will be another doji if no spectacular price moves happen over today’s trading. This suggests that long term supply and demand are in relative balance at current levels.

Providing this week’s candle closes in proximity of current price levels or higher we very likely have a higher weekly low and a new pivotal candle in weekly time frame. This low coincides with the upper end of downward regression channel. Stochastics is neutral reflecting the price action being close to half way of the recent price range. EURGBP is currently trying to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A close above last week’s high implies probabilities for the pair moving to next weekly highs have increased.



EURGBP, Daily

The pair has moved above its 50 day SMA that coincides with a previous resistance level at 0.7236 while another technical factor coinciding with this level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. These levels are fairly close to the midrange and therefore do not bear that strong predictive value but it would still a positive if we saw this market closing above the 0.7236 level. Nearest significant support and resistance levels in the daily chart: 0.7132 and 0.7326.



EURGBP, 240 min

Price has broken out of the descending regression channel and has since then moved above resistance levels that have now turned into supports. Stochastics is getting overbought so it shouldn’t be too long from now that we see retracements to support levels. Nearest support at 0.7213 should be an interesting level to look at for long signals in such a case while 0.7285 is the nearest more significant intraday resistance level.

Conclusion

There is an attempt to create a market bottom but this pair however probably needs more consolidation before it’s completed. While EURUSD has moved beyond the recent highs that resisted the price advances EURGBP is still below the same highs and therefore inside the range. These pairs have recently had fairly strong correlation, and should the EURUSD correct lower from a resistance it is likely to have a negative impact on EURGBP. If EURUSD corrects lower and tests support levels successfully it is more likely that EURGBP will bottom out. A close above last week’s high implies probabilities for the pair moving to next weekly highs have increased. In such case the 0.7376 to 0.7422 range would be a reasonable target for short term trades. Short term momentum is currently to the upside but price is nearing the 0.7286 resistance. The Greek uncertainty coupled with elections in the UK could bring more volatility over the coming days and weeks. As usual, it makes sense to look for sell signals at resistance levels and buy signals at supports.

Trade these levels only if price action at the levels confirms my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 1st May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.



EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday’s US reports were mostly good news for the economy, given a Chicago PMI climb to 52.3, a 34k initial claims plunge to a 262k new cycle-low that signals upside risk to our 220k April payroll estimate, and a firm 0.7% Q1 ECI rise that leaves a steep cyclical climb into 2015. The dollar rallied early in the session, following a 15-year low initial jobless claims print, and an uptick in ECI. After peaking at 1.1250 in London, EURUSD slipped to 1.1117 lows following the data. EURUSD was able to rally slightly higher again in the late night trading and topped at 1.1266 in proximity to the 1.1279 resistance I identified yesterday morning. The pair is trading above the upper Bollinger Bands and Stochastics are starting to move sideways. This suggests the market participants are acknowledging this market is getting overbought and is trading close to a resistance, after a six consecutive up days. EUR is strong across the board this morning but at some point reversion to mean kicks in and and this market will react lower. We should be following price action at resistance levels to get clues on when this might happen. Nearest daily support at 1.1035 and after 1.1279 resistance the next significant level is at 1.1534.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

While AUD performance was a bit mixed earlier this morning it is now weakening especially against the EUR and GBP with the CHF also gaining against Aussie. GBP and EUR are strong across the board while the JPY is quite weak against majority of the currencies. EURJPY is the strongest of the lot at the time of writing with a performance of +0.71% while EURNZD has gained 0.68%. GBPJPY follows with a +0.57% performance. GBPNZD looks interesting with strong performance and still some way to go before it hits major daily resistance levels.

Main Macro Events Today

Chinese Manufacturing PMI: China’s official manufacturing PMI was 50.1 in April, as expected and identical to the 50.1 in March. The back to back readings leave this measure skimming just above the contraction/expansion level of 50.0 after it fell below in February to 49.9 and 49.8 in January.

Australian PPI q/q: Q1 PPI rose 0.5% (q/q) after the 0.1% gain in Q4. The measure slowed down to a 0.7% y/y rate in Q1 from the 1.1% y/y growth rate in Q4.

UK Manufacturing PMI: The April Markit manufacturing PMI survey is expected to come in at 54.6 while March figure was 54.4. It was fractionally above survey median for 54.3 and improving from February’s 54.1 reading. March figure was the third consecutive month of improvement, affirming that activity in the sector is reaccelerating after a soft patch in Q4 last year.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI: April ISM is out Friday and is expected at 52.0 (median 52.0) from 51.5 in March and 52.9 in February. Overall, producer sentiment should have been firmer in April with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures increasing to 51 after a dip to 50 in March.



Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has reacted lower from the resistance level (1.1279) I pointed out in my previous Currency Movers reports. On Friday US April ISM remained stuck at 51.5, below median 52.0 (vs 51.5 in March) while U.S. construction spending fell 0.6% in March, (below median 0.5%) and US Markit final PMI eased to 54.1 in April. The absence of Tokyo and London centres will ensure thin trade today. Through to Friday, the euro had climbed for seven successive days, but looks likely for a pause now. Greece remains an issue. Despite signs that the government in Athens has adopted an improved attitude, news reports from weekend negotiations suggest that fundamental differences remain with creditors, particularly on pension reform and privatisation proposals. Next daily support level is at 1.1035.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

At the time of writing Euro’s performance remains mixed while USD is only just slightly stronger than its peers. US Dollar Index is reacting higher from support level (94.91) I pointed out in my earlier reports but there has not yet been much movement which is evidenced by the above chart. The only exception is CHF that has been weak this morning almost across the board. EURCHF lagging behind the others as both currencies in this pair are reacting lower from a resistance. JPY slightly stronger than others with EURJPY reacting from a resistance. All in all there hasn’t been much movement this morning as Japanese and Brits are enjoying a day off.

Main Macro Events Today

Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell to a final 48.9 in April, down from the preliminary (or “flash) reading of 49.2 and the final 49.6 in March. The April figure fell short of expectations for little change from the preliminary report’s 49.2. Government’s stimulus efforts are falling short, with the government’s target for 7% GDP growth looking increasing optimistic. Further stimulus measures from the government and another rate cut from the PBoC are likely in store for the near term.

Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI: The April Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 from 52.2 and the services reading to 53.7 from 54.2, which brought the composite down to 53.5 from 54.0. Indicators still point to healthy expansion. The overall EMU Markit PMI is expected to come in at 51.9.

US Factory Orders m/m March factory orders are expected to grow 2.0%.



Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th May 2015 (Second Analysis)

EURJPY AT RESISTANCE AND WITH ROOM TO FALL.



EURGBP, Weekly

As EURUSD moved higher last week, EURJPY rallied very strongly and reached the February highs. Last week’s close was inside the weekly pivot candle from February this year, roughly the same area that was earlier defined by October 2014 pivot low. As reaction to previous pivot levels and today’s price action now proves this area has psychological significance. The nearest support and resistance levels are 131.30 and 136.85. The 50% Fibonacci level coincides roughly with the 131.30 support. This is quite far away from the current price and therefore suggests current levels are good for those looking for shorting opportunities. Earlier today EURUSD has been reacting lower from a resistance while JPY has been slightly stronger than its peers across the board. With EURJPY also trading lower from a resistance this should be a good time to be bearish on EUR and bullish on JPY.



EURJPY, Daily

On Friday EURJPY hit resistance just above 135.02 and turned lower. This resistance was created by a pivot candle from February 11th and now price is trading 0.49% below the close from Friday. Stochastics is overbought and about to roll over while the pair has been trading outside the Bollinger Bands and is now edging close to the upper 2 stdv band. A close below the band would be a further confirmation of bearish mood in EURJPY. The nearest daily support level is at 131.29 with the 50% Fibonacci level and 50 day SMA not that far behind at 130.75 and 130.32 respectively. Movements below 38.2% Fibonacci level at 131.81 should be monitored for momentum reversal signals.



EURJPY, 240 min

As the pair has moved lower the Stochastic Oscillator has declined to overbought levels. However price is now trading below 134.23, a level that used to be an intraday support and should now act as a resistance. Nearest intraday support level is at 132.46 where lower Bollinger Bands and an old channel high coincide. The next support area consists of April 6th pivotal resistance area between 130.40 and 131.29. Currently the 50 period SMA is also inside area.

Conclusion

The pair is overbought in higher timeframes and in resistance which indicates it’s time for it to correct lower. At the time of writing EUR is weak against all the major currencies while JPY is holding up against all the others but CAD. This combined with the technical weakness in EURJPY suggests that the trading opportunities in this pair are in the downside. EURUSD being weak at resistance is also supporting the bearish view. My target one in for short term trades is at 131.50 and target 2 at 130.40.

Trade these levels only if price action at the levels confirms my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 5th May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.



EURUSD, Daily

On May the 1st I wrote: the EUR is strong across the board this morning but at some point reversion to mean kicks in and this market will react lower. EURUSD started turning lower that very same day and has been moving lower since. It is breaking intraday supports and honouring resistance levels. Stochastics are rolling over and price is trading inside the Bollinger Bands. At the time of writing the pair is at 23.6% Fibonacci level that coincides with April 30th daily lows. The 1.1035 to 1.1052 support area is a likely target on the downside if the 23.6% level is violated. Yesterday was light on economic releases. US factory orders bounced 2.1% in March, right in line with median expectations versus -0.1% in February.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

As I suggested last week the the US Dollar index has been strong since DXY hit support at 94.91 and after a slow start it has moved higher over the last couple of days. The AUD strength that followed the 0.25% rate cut has been a surprise and has raised eye brows on Bloomberg TV this morning. Aussie dollar is strong across the board with EUR, CAD and CHF being the weakest currencies against it. EUR being weak against everything else probably isn’t any surprise to regular readers of Currency Movers report. EURUSD trading lower from a resistance level has been dragging the other EUR pairs lower with it and this has created trading opportunities in these pairs. One of them was EURJPY which I analysed in yesterday’s Multi Time Frame article. GBP pairs have not moved much yet but with the election looming just a couple days from now there could be some more volatility ahead. EURGBP looks interesting as it rallied so strongly over the last week. After hitting my target range of 0.7376 to 0.7422 the pair has turned lower and could provide further opportunities for short term traders with volatility likely staying high.

Main Macro Events Today

RBA Cash Rate: The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 bp to a record low of 2.0%, as was largely expected. A reference to the currency in the statement gets to the crux, that a further fall in the Australian dollar is necessary. The RBA would have been discomforted by last week’s surge in AUD-USD to a three-month high at 0.8075. The central bank also cites weakness in capital expenditure as a key risk, and notes that spare capacity will remain in the economy for some time.

Spanish Unemployment is expected to drop by 64.8k compared to previous change of -60.2k.

UK Construction PMI is seen to stay almost unchanged. Median figure points to a slight 0.2 point dip.

CAD Trade Balance is projected to improve to a C$0.9 bln deficit in March from the C$1.0 bln shortfall in February.

US Trade Balance is likely to increase by 25% to -$44.5 bln in March (median -$40.3bln) from -$35.4 bln in February.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold steady from 56.5 in April. This compares to a recent high of 58.8 in November.



Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.