Technical Templates

[spotfx]

China & the emerging economies are watched like hawks by the investment community as they are a (current) barometer for forward demand of commodities, energy & manufacturing output.

If there are any fears whatsoever that the far east is likely to struggle or miss their key economic numbers it has a knee jerk effect on Australian, New Zealand & Canadian markets & consumers. Add to that the knock-on effects of soft data coming out of the US & slow European manufacturing & construction industry output & you begin to experience a gradual escalation of mild panic in investor sentiment over fears of an uptick in global slowdown/recessionary concerns.

The results will manifest themselves in exhaustive/consolidatory behavior & spikey, over-extended price dumps & you will hear a lot more emphasis directed towards risk on-risk off or flight to safety comments in analyst & newswire rhetoric.
As has been advised on here many times, it pays to stay abreast of generic fundamental sentiment as that is what directly influences & orchestrates price action, both in the short & medium term.

[jcpfx]

Thanks for the info SpotFX

[shona123]

I'll also be eyeing the following pairs for follow through/pullback activity into next week, triggering the pair or pairs offering the best set up credentials at the time:
EURUSD, EURCAD & EURAUD to the long side
AUDNZD, USDCHF & GBPCHF to the short side.
Usual swing violation exit & trailing profit stop levels will apply once entered which are clearly visible on the hourly technicals.

The money was made this week on the continuation moves aided by the Chinese data output.
And it was yesterday's soft euozone forward outlook that signalled a temporary halt to proceedings by triggering a risk-off stance.
The spotlight pairs are now in neutral mode for those trading a trend follow through approach.

All 4 of the highlighted pairs are trading on & around decision areas that will either put them back into continuation mode or begin signalling a possible switch in short-term trend emphasis.
As ever, the most sensible option is simply to wait for more information that will reveal the weighted sentiment & dominant price direction.

[round number]

Yen based pairs began struggling to make further headway from mid week & succumbed to profit taking as the weekend approached.
I still have them at the top of the set up list & will monitor them for continuation activity if & when they begin exhibiting the usual technical signs such as higher highs & higher lows (with accompanying hook triggers) via the sub hourly timeframes.

They've been nice & steady holding their own after the early week shake out have been clicking back into gear & on the move

[kyle morgan]

Yeah, there's been a good consistent output of supporting info all week to shore up the dominant trend though.
Those higher lows especially on usd, euro & gbp v/s yen have attracted bids on the back of the rhetoric, some of which is regularly presented to everyone via the freebie outlets.
A big clue to the reluctance of Yen to strengthen v/s those 3 currencies came on Wednesday in the 2nd paragraph of the 1st linked market summary.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/ ... 17?rpc=401
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium ... e-20130418

If/when you have any complimentary or evidential info to support your view then it makes identifying the entry criteria such as hooks a little easier to engage.

[jcpfx]

Hi everyone,

hope you had a profitable week through all the volatile moments! My rotation through the week went like so:

15th = short AudJpy but took profit at o/n low, missing the huge downward move -_- Also, missed a great EurCad long setup, when it was just straddling the prior week's high...

16th = short NzdUsd (scratched @ b/e later in the morning), long EurCad around 11 CET along with EurAud around the same time. The EurCad structure looked better on the chart (1H still in gear in the morning, only needing a 15Min entry) but on the futures charts, EurAud looked like the stronger pairing but I needed to wait for a 1H hook and it was tricky.

17th = EurAud 15min hook entry around 10 CET, scratched around 1H later.

18th = attempted a NzdUsd short during early London open (7.45 CET) , hoping the o/n high would hold. Got stopped out just a while later but it was worth a shot. I also tried a EurUsd short at 9.15 CET but even that attempt got washed out.

19th = was looking for longs on GbpJpy & UsdJpy but never found an entry since I woke up...but I stumbled across a nice long entry on GbpUsd at 8.15 CET. This trade could have very well washed out, because bulls&bears both had a decent 4H structure to work off of. I decided to stick with the long view because of the bullish 1H structure leading into the London open.

Not bad, to be honest

Going into next week, the Futures pairings would suggest looking for long UsdJpy and short GbpUsd, UsdCad, AudUsd. Basically, the Fitch downgrade could keep the lid on Gbp & the flows from Gold to USD could keep the bid tone on USD. But the structure on GbpUsd is still incomplete: I would still like to see a lower high before engaging short bets, and the same goes for AudUsd.

Good luck to everyone going into the week & have a good weekend!

[zilly]

I agree with your usd/jpy view. As the guys mentioned, Yen sprung back into focus early last week & I for one will be keeping that currency right up there on top of my betting list next week.
I've had Sterling on the back burner now for more than a couple of weeks & unless it receives a massive shot in the arm on either the short or long side, it'll stay there for another week.

Apart from the obvious Yen pairs the only others of interest based on end of week positioning headed into Monday is a short bet through 1.05 on aud/cad & further upside follow through on eur/aud.
Obviously it's subject to change as usual, but I'm not really inspired by anything else at the moment.

[jcpfx]

Hey Zilly,

AudCad looks a lot like AudUsd so looking south is definitely the way to go based on the model traded here...but don't you need a lower high on the 4H chart before actually preparing entries?

Thanks!

[zilly]

Given the obviously recent bearish tone on this pair, a lower high pullback on the 60m will be good enough for me providing it pops down through 1.0530 & offers me an appropriately located sub hourly hook jcp.

As ever, just play it as you see it according to your own individual risk, style & experience.

[jcpfx]

Understood Zilly, and thanks for explaining the reasoning.