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[speedbump]

And there are/were plenty of those stacking up the other side of this recent top judging by the weighted percentage of (retail) open shorts being tacked on from late last week.
I took a quick check around on Monday afternoon & it was still showing an avg of 70% open short orders in play.
Guess where the majority of their stops were going into today's action!!
Match that with pending long stop entry tickets through 3505-10 & you got yourself your required momentum shot for a decent intraday bet.

Which as it turns out is a classic example of forced liquidation.
Something that should be very clear & obvious to those who watched the Jankovsky video on order flow that kyle kindly submitted to the thread on the 12th Jan in reply to a question from Eidriel.

As the man say's (& as the core of this material focuses on)..... "just think logically about where the dominant flow is & who is under the most pressure to fold their hands - a winning trader has the luxury of choosing when to liquidate
a losing trader is always forced to liquidate, especially one running tight stops against the dominant flows"

[jcpfx]

Morning everyone,

can anybody clarify the current market stance for me? That fall in the Euro yesterday, along with the S&P, means trouble in my book although, from a technical perspective, it has fallen quite a lot in 1 day and is currently resting on 3460s support.

So I'm bearish Euro&Gbp going into today, looking to get into some trouble on EurNzd & GbpNzd & maybe EurUsd...any thoughts?

Thanks & Good Luck!

[midgely88]

Morning everyone,
can anybody clarify the current market stance for me?

morning jcp.
on the 2 euro based pairs (eur/usd & eur/gbp) price violated the bullish cycle yesterday as it dropped through 3585 & 8610 respectively.
failure to push back up through & hold eur/usd 3520-40 & eur/gbp 8600-20 puts the focus on selling rallies as opposed to buying dips.



the eur/nzd however remains in bearish mode with clear cyclical behaviour still in place & upside violation levels readily identifiable.

[bigdog]

Hi all,

After some time off (keeping a low profile on the forum) I thought it would be good to throw up a chart.

Interesting that I don't visit any other forums anymore.......my addiction for information has been cured........ I have been doing this trading thing for more than 10 years, it hasnt been easy to find a cure......

I should also note my other addiction for constant action/trading the charts has also been cured. My primary chart is the daily and that suits my style.

Now for my contribution for the day.

Continuation longs on EurUsd.

I see few options for entry.

1. Pullback with stoch hook off 15 minute chart
2. Pullback with 1-2-3 trigger off 5 or 15 minute chart
3. A break of today and previous days highs (least preferred)

I see 3500 as great area for support should price fall back this far. As has been said before, use the ADR as a guidepost to how much petrol is left in the tank.

[visualxray]

Interesting that I don't visit any other forums anymore.......my addiction for information has been cured........ I have been doing this trading thing for more than 10 years, it hasnt been easy to find a cure......

Hello bigdog.
I smiled when I read this bit

I too signed up over on Babypips, but only so I could view a few charts that weren't accessible unless you were fully logged in.
There's nothing of any value on that whole forum these days (or any of the others come to that) that can't be found on this one thread.

I agree with you re; eur/usd. Anywhere from current price back to the 1.3500 area would be the higher probability zone to check for the next likely bullish HH/HL cycle using those triggers.
But to be honest bigdog I still prefer shorting Yen v/s the best of either NZD, AUD, EUR & $US.
The cycles are still cleaner, they're hooking nicely on both the hourly & 15minute charts & continuing to offer very keen risk/profit ratios.

These days I try & squeeze every drip out of those pairs that are in vogue because sooner or later the trendy runs evaporate.
It must be either my age or my unwillingness to do battle with choppy, indecisive instruments these days.
I'm content to sit back & wait patiently until one or other of the currencies decides to break out of its melancholy & go on a mini run. Once it does I'll track it & jump onto the first pullback to see how much juice I can pour into the glass

[Eidriel]

Hello guys,

I have been trying out this method for awhile now.

Results were not very positive so far, although I did not lose much of my capital.

Let me briefly explain what I do, I use the Daily to look for a nice trending stock, easy to find with the JPY pairs.
Then I enter with the Stoch hook using the 1HR in the direction of the trend, ONLY WHEN price touches a Key level. I do not trade every single Stoch hooks as I know that will just deplete my account. So i only trade the Stoch hooks that occur at significant levels.

This is one of the method which I got from the thread after reading through it twice, and seeing the results, I am not sure whether I am executing it in the wrong way, which is why the results aren't too positive. So I decided to attach a chart of a recent trade on EURJPY to see if I am doing this correctly

Chart shows the 1H of EURJPY. (On the Daily, the pair is trending up strongly)

I entered on 2 pullbacks on the 1H chart as Stoch shows a hook and price touches the 2 key levels as shown on the chart. But unfortunately got stopped out 2 times in a row. And what do I know, the third one finally did push up the price, but unfortunately I didn't enter on this one when it finally did work out

But this is just an example, the point is, I have entered countless of these trades, some of them work, some of them don't, similar to what is reflected on the EURJPY chart, and in the end, the winning profits and losses just seem to even out, which is why the results aren't too positive.

I really need some help here Am I actually executing this technique correctly?

[visualxray]

I'm probably the least familiar of everyone here with the approach, but I can see 2 major issues with your 2nd entry.
1) time of day & spurious ADR
2) you're attempting to instigate a long into a very defined intraday bearish cycle without waiting for confirmation that it's done pulling back.

Your 1st & 3rd attempts are valid as far as I'm concerned, although the early morning one is mighty close to the prior day's high & current day's asian high.
But that's being a bit nit picky.

[2Taps]

I entered on 2 pullbacks on the 1H chart as Stoch shows a hook and price touches the 2 key levels as shown on the chart. But unfortunately got stopped out 2 times in a row. And what do I know, the third one finally did push up the price, but unfortunately I didn't enter on this one when it finally did work out

Your long trade off the 125.20 level into monday's london closing session is a definite no-no.
The intraday flows are bearish & you're entering when the brunt of the day's liquidity is drying up, not to mention most of the days range is already covered.

I only use an hourly/15min confirmation, so my entry criteria won't match yours. But at a push, the morning entry off 126.20 is ok, & the pullback long the following morning into early London trade is valid too. That one had the added weight of 60 & 15min hook confirmation (the highest probability in my view).

[Eidriel]

Thanks to both visualxray and 2Taps for your replies

I have been using an mt4 indicator for ADR and I am unsure if the
Values differ from what you all are seeing. What do you all use to
Find the value of the ADR?


Thanks and regards

[bigdog]

Continuing on from the other day

My interest in the pair has flipped to a short bias based on the daily chart. Previous low has been taken out and price has held below this level in my view.

Looking for a stoch hook or 1-2-3 in the next hour or two to go short. Not the best example of a trade as its bearly trending/cycling anywhere at the moment. I know that's not how you spell barely, couldn't resist.

This is the way I see it.........