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[jcpfx]

Morning Speculators,

it's Martin Luther King day in the US...this time last year I was checking my feed constantly to see if it was working...
Low liquidity that even a newbie like me can notice...

I hope it plays out for you Eidriel, but I'm personally staying away from the markets today.

[jcpfx]

Trying out this short bet on GBPNZD. Hopefully will pull this off

Let the charts do the talking!

Comments are welcome

Good Stuff Eidriel,

your position is going well! I have 8800/20 marked on my chart as a target...i'd be cautious now as Cable has started to move a little higher.

It's been a great start to the week for you!

[jcpfx]

Just studying, no coin flippin' yet. Wanted to know if this is a high-probability setup I've identified on GbpJpy:


4H showing bias change after the Boj disappointment


15Min chart showing the o/n push through yesterday's lows and the pin + inside candle upon retest of that very level

Hope I'm getting closer to the truth here

[2Taps]

Wanted to know if this is a high-probability setup I've identified on GbpJpy:
Hope I'm getting closer to the truth here

Well....hmmm I'm not sure I'd describe it as high probability. It's getting warm, but that about all.
It's a bit on the scrappy side to be honest.

What's the matter with taking the less stressful route & simply legging into the EUR/GBP on its regular pullback soiree's?
Since speedbump alerted everyone to this pairs next upleg phase over 2 weeks ago it's tagged on another +300 pips with a virtually perfect cycle sequence.
In my view sterling is also a stronger & smoother short v/s AUD & NZD than YEN at the moment.
Just compare the respective 4 & 1 hour charts.

[jcpfx]

Wanted to know if this is a high-probability setup I've identified on GbpJpy:
Hope I'm getting closer to the truth here

Well....hmmm I'm not sure I'd describe it as high probability. It's getting warm, but that about all.
It's a bit on the scrappy side to be honest.

What's the matter with taking the less stressful route & simply legging into the EUR/GBP on its regular pullback soiree's?
Since speedbump alerted everyone to this pairs next upleg phase over 2 weeks ago it's tagged on another +300 pips with a virtually perfect cycle sequence.
In my view sterling is also a stronger & smoother short v/s AUD & NZD than YEN at the moment.
Just compare the respective 4 & 1 hour charts.

Hey 2Taps,

2 weeks ago I had less experience than today and was not able to see some things that now are clearer. Another rule of thumb that in the past has kept me out of harms way was the rationale "if it's gone too far, too fast, then the odds are for some kind of a pullback". EurGbp has been butting against a massive resistance zone highlighted in the chart below, extending from 8400 to 8450. I would bet short until this whole area gets cleared to the upside on some sort of grind.

Is my thinking really out of tune with "common sense trading"? It seems that I'm on a parallel road that comes close, but doesn't intersect with you guys here in the thread!


Daily EurGbp

[2Taps]

2 weeks ago I had less experience than today and was not able to see some things that now are clearer.

That's fair enough.
If you learn just a tiny bit more this month than you learnt last month you'll soon ramp up the knowledge base!

Another rule of thumb that in the past has kept me out of harms way was the rationale "if it's gone too far, too fast, then the odds are for some kind of a pullback".

That was more or less my mode of thinking too before I began interacting with these guys, but they soon shook those old wives tales out of me.
These days I simply play the set ups when they appear & let the market/price action cycles dictate when it's moved far enough in either direction.

I don't anticipate anything anymore, there's no need.
It will let us know soon enough when it's done travelling on a one-way ticket!

Is my thinking really out of tune with "common sense trading"?
It seems that I'm on a parallel road that comes close, but doesn't intersect with you guys here in the thread!

Don't stress it.
You're still getting to grips with the approach. It took me a while to begin clearing out all the usual book & guru rubbish from my head & strip it all back to basics to see what's really going on out there.

It'll all begin slowly slotting into place when you're ready.

[jcpfx]

If you learn just a tiny bit more this month than you learnt last month you'll soon ramp up the knowledge base!

I hope so, and thanks for the encouragement!

....they soon shook those old wives tales out of me....
These days I simply play the set ups when they appear & let the market/price action cycles dictate when it's moved far enough in either direction.

Yeah...we just got an example of what I need to get out of my mind:


Wrong thinking supported by some pips in the expected direction: "Cable has shot down a lot and is bumping the 5800 support zone...and look, it found bids right before yesterday's low and printed a 15min inside candle right after the pin...this thing is gonna bounce and challenge recent highs"...


Wrong thinking supported by some pips in the expected direction: "wow, Dax fell out of bed but on some sloppy rumours...it has fallen too fast on an intraday basis and bounced right at last week's low..and formed an inside bar right beside the pinocchio...this is gonna bounce at least to yesterday's low print"

It took me a while to begin clearing out all the usual book & guru rubbish from my head & strip it all back to basics to see what's really going on out there.
It'll all begin slowly slotting into place when you're ready.

Any help to exorcize these demons inside me would help...i see intraday moves like this a lot and there's a big conflict going on inside me because more often then not price does "bounce" enough to give a handsome payday...

Would love to hear your thoughts on this since we had some sort of common way of thinking!

Thanks 2Taps!

[2Taps]

Any help to exorcize these demons inside me would help...i see intraday moves like this a lot and there's a big conflict going on inside me because more often then not price does "bounce" enough to give a handsome payday...

They're not demons if you're benefiting consistently from that type of strategy & it's putting money in your account.
The only time you need to start taking stock & considering an alternative is when you experience more debits in the account than credits.

Just because you see folks adopting a slightly different style & outlook to yours doesn't mean you're looking at it from the wrong angle.
I would seriously question abandoning something that feels right & trying to force-fit someone else's model just because it appears simple to them.

We're all wired very differently & what suits one (or more) won't necessarily suit you.
The object of the exercise is to use some or all of this approach to improve what you're already doing.
If you enjoy trading a very specific style such as the one you've mentioned & presented on here, then take your time to experiment with elements of this concept to see if it/they can help with your own model.

It might just be something as simple as scaling back on the quantity of entries & aiming for better quality background set ups.
Only consider changing something if it's showing clear evidence of not working.
If it aint broke it don't need fixing.....maybe just tweaking!

Would love to hear your thoughts on this since we had some sort of common way of thinking!

What I meant by that comment was that when I first started I fell into the groove that most forum participants do.
I loaded up my charts with pivots, fibs, all manner of support & resistance lines, had oscillators underneath the charts, volume, studied candle patterns etc etc.

I assumed that the more confluences & confirmations I could refer to, the higher probability of success I'd achieve.
It wasn't as though I didn't understand how they all worked either, I spent a lot of time researching & confirming my understanding by reading, watching & practicing.
My account was oscillating between a small loss & breakeven for approx 6-8 months before stumbling across these guys.

I pm'd a couple of them & between their specific advice & the material & I read here I slowly began unwinding & dumping all the multi-confluence rubbish & began changing my whole understanding of what I was looking to achieve & how best to approach it.

It's still a work in progress & I continue to make silly mistakes, but at least now I have a solid base & foundation.
I've finally kicked the overtrading drug & have reduced my intraday exposure to a level that I'm satisfied with.
But it didn't happen overnight & it does take some very disciplined application.

[Eidriel]

Thank you jcpfx.

Im going for a long bet on GBPUSD.

Daily chart showing price touching a very significant demand zone. and the rejection candle (hammer) indicating bids.

On 1H, a very nice double bottom presents itself.

Upside targets are marked on the 4H.

Despite this being a counter-trend trade. I'm attracted to its risk:reward ratio.

Again, comments are welcome

As for EURGBP as previously discussed, I got to agree with jcpfx, price is touching a significant supply zone, and I would prefer to see how price reacts to this zone before acting on the pair.

[jcpfx]

Thanks 2Taps,

you nailed an important point...just as you went through some rough months before stepping in here, I have gone through a tough 2012 with the same description. Not great for installing confidence...and even if the last part of the year, after having stumbled accross FSR & TT, the results have improved (last week was a fine example...) my lack of experience (as goldtop had once mentioned) has kept my mental state always on guard and in doubt that i'm actually making headway.

So now that I'm at this point, my objectives are relatively simple:
1) No excuses, play like a champion. ==> trade well, and the profits will come.
2) Search for solid setups following the 4H/15min combo in line with trend (main setup)
3) Accept intraday plays like today, bouncing off prior day's/week's high/low if odds suffice.

I don't really have % profit targets at this point, just the extreme desire to play the game as well as possible.

Hopefully these goals will keep me out of trouble and allow me to survive long enough to understand more and make a difference.

Again, I really appreciate these exchanges. Thanks!