Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

It also seriously sparked my interest when I first located their stuff & then got linked to this site. But the over-riding message I took from it was the one regarding high probability set ups v/s low probability scenarios, which is why I made the comment in my previous post.

I continue to search high probability setups but I am probably complicating things for myself. I am looking for trades as soon as a I get a 1-2-3 formation on the 4H chart (primary) indipendently from where it happens...I am comming to understand that having a 1 higher high and 1 higher low that seems to point in a certain direction is not in fact a clear directional trade... Eidrel pointed that out as well about my trading when he said "you are looking to trade every cycle"...

This stuff is very powerful but only when we restrict ourselves to trading when the conditions are in our favour more than they are the brokers.

Agreed! I worked for a broker until 2010 and one of the reasons I had to leave was that (even without knowing much back then about market dynamics) I would not entice clients to trade or create excuses over the phone to get them excited about something or another. Funny how I can caution others against overtrading or looking too much into a certain situation, and then fall into the trap myself...

Believe me, I learnt that tough lesson myself when first starting to trade this approach & don't want to see you or other new participants fall into the same trap.

Appreciate that comment a lot. Thank you.

It's very easy to "see what we want to see" in any chart we open up every day & convince ourselves that a valid opportunity exists to make money. The difficult part is walking away from such instances & only partaking when the very best set ups reveal themselves.

Agreed. This goes back to point 1: filtering high probability setups & not looking too hard into the chart.

That's the one aspect I've personally struggled with since starting to trade & still fall into the trap every now & again.
Thankfully re-reading this thread on a regular basis, taking note of the more experienced guys comments & examples & always working to a very strict pre-trade plan is helping to firm up the discipline.

All of you have formed quite a team in here. May the pips be with you

[jcpfx]

Today there's no real market mover out there...FX will probably follow US earning & Equities... that alone would probably tell anyone to stand down as it reduces probabilities (correct?) BUT here is a chart that I hope is more of a solid setup in this choppy day..


4H cycle


15Min pin comming in at day lows + low stoch...not the best setup but attractive to me (i love pins)

Considerations?

Thanks.

[jcpfx]

Price is telling me once more that I may very well be too hasty in my decision making. Stepping back to ponder...

[visualxray]

BUT here is a chart that I hope is more of a solid setup in this choppy day..
...not the best setup but attractive to me (i love pins)
Considerations?

Not for me.
A break & pullback of last week's highs (where it's just rejected) would get me interested though.

[hawkmoon]

Price is telling me once more that I may very well be too hasty in my decision making. Stepping back to ponder...

I agree...that pair at that level doesn't represent the highest of probabilities.

Also be very aware (which has been reiterated already) we're still emerging from a period of low liquidity & this is the first full week of market activity after the Xmas & New Year holiday break.
Interbank traders are still trickling back into work & getting their bearings. The market isn't yet firing on all cylinders, which is being reflected in the choppy & directionless movement on a lot of these pairs.

As speedbump alluded to, only the very clearest & cleanest bias/cycles should be considered, especially during lower periods of liquidity & participation.
The fresh trading year hasn't kicked off properly yet, there's plenty of time ahead to get involved & take advantage when the volumes really begin to shove these pairs around a bit more.

Don't be in too much of a rush to give your hard earned money back to the market.

[jcpfx]

A chart is worth a thousand words...i have tried to incorporate some recent pointers on these trade setups/executions.


4H


15Min

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4H


15min
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4H


15Min

[zilly]

A chart is worth a thousand words...i have tried to incorporate some recent pointers on these trade setups/executions.

Now all you got to do is continue to filter your watch list along the lines of those GBP/NZD & EUR/CAD pairs & you'll carry a lot less stress around with you.
Like speedbump commented, sometimes we simply have to sit on our hands & wait patiently for those kinds of bias opportunities to work themselves into a high probability situation.

Sooner or later they'll open up & start to go on a run.
And as soon as you begin to spot the familiar footprints, that'll be the time to bring your secondary timeframe triggers into play.

[jcpfx]

Setups from today's action. Any comments are welcome as always.

Going into London, AudUsd - NzdJpy - EurAud were looking good on the 4H but I flipped the coin only on Aussie as no other action was convincing on the 15min frame. I have also posted other charts to exchange views on - for sports.


Aussie 15Min frame, long on the pin in the right place. Stoch probably confused after the large move o/n.


NzdJpy > no real "trigger" caught my eye yet..waiting to see if 50% of today's rise holds on the retrace. Is this a logical way of following it?


GbpNzd 15Min action > price "acted" right, retraced...but the only "trigger-like" thing was a bearish outside bar. Does anyone consider that to be sufficient?


EurAud 15Min action > not too keen on shorting this now, after the momentum move above y'd low and the ECB due out soon.

Thanks guys, keep it tight out there.

[jack mason]

The only 2 from your selection that would make my shortlist for likely participation would be gbp/nzd (which speedbump mentioned earlier in the week) & nzd/jpy.
They are both exhibiting the cleanest bias/cycle structure of the 4 you've highlighted.

NzdJpy > no real "trigger" caught my eye yet..waiting to see if 50% of today's rise holds on the retrace.
Is this a logical way of following it?

Regarding your retrace comment - sure, you could use that as a prompter if it's something that has proven consistently successful for you in the past.
As long as price holds above the most recent hourly higher swing low at 73.55 (which also marks a break & pullback of prior resistance) then the bias is bullish & you can confidently look for your favorite continuation long triggers.

You need to be aware that this pairs major activity will usually play out during it's own local trading session.
Considering the volumes & participation, the Sydney/Tokyo timezone will present most of the early & therefore higher probability (sub-hourly) trigger opportunities.

GbpNzd 15Min action > price "acted" right, retraced...but the only "trigger-like" thing was a bearish outside bar.
Does anyone consider that to be sufficient?

I don’t personally pay any attention to specific bar/candle patterns on sub hourly charts jcp & I don't recall any mention of them in the material on this thread, so I would think not.

If however the usual bar/candle prints that signify a behavioral change or clue in the current price action (such as spinning tops/dojis/inside & outside bars) begin forming on the larger timeframes at key inflection points on the technical charts, then that would warrant some attention.

[jcpfx]

Good Morning,

first off I would like to thank you all for the patience and tolerance demonstrated towards me and my continuous errors. Please let me explain why I may have seemed more prepared time ago than in recent times.

I have gone through the thread (and also the Technical Templates on Babypips) and I have trouble connecting some dots.

1) I seem to understand that prior sup/res areas and flips are relevant "action" zones. When price approaches them, be careful and observe price action around them, being ready to play either direction. I feel comfortable enough identifying these areas and levels at this point in my trading.

1.1) I identify most areas using the 4H chart and "zoom" into the 1H chart to see them better. Thing is, some areas are "counter trend" when price hits them. As the most recent action on this thread puts it, I should just leave price alone and instead look for continuation where there is still a trend in place. Yet going back on the thread around page 22-23 I see some members taking these types of trades. (I hope I explained myself clearly enough...) I have shorted Cable and GbpNzd this morning in this fashion.

2) So boiling everything down to a minimum, is the name of the game to identify these likely inflection points, wait for price to show signs of stalling or signs of pushing through them, and once we have signs (i.e. hook on 1H chart along with some nice candle patterns as pins, dojis, outside bars) flip onto a shorter tf and pull the trigger with a hook or 1-2-3?

Reason being, I like the feeling of playing the levels, it feels right to focus on the market structure. But in my trading I have failed to tie this in with the trend and/or understand the right moment to step in.

Thank you and may the pips be with you!