Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

The morning action has messed with my primary setups but the main trend in the Eur crosses has continued. Thus the setup I am now watching on EurNzd & EurAud is quite clear: wait for the pullback to the breakdown zone and fire away if a short setup presents itself.





Note: as we have already covered much ground to the downside today, if a short materialized itself later in the day I would be cautious and would not expect it to be a home run trade.

[jcpfx]

...but unable to lay down a proper trigger to demonstrate the feeling

Before going into this post, let me excuse myself for "hogging" much space on this 3d. Please feel free to comment on whether I should post less or if I should alter my participation on the 3d. I have posted more since october than many in years...and feel sort of ashamed about it

Having said that, here is YET ANOTHER post of mine...

Today was a relatively frustrating day. After the Kiwi coin flip, my coin has been glued to the desk all day. Had to modify my start of week planning a little, and followed the intraday action of the pairs on my watchlist.

Lets start with EurUsd:


The 15 min chart shows my thoughts. Confusion until the 11AM-3PM 4H candle confirmed higher lows and the 1-2-3 structure was formed on the 15min chart. The zone highlighted yesterday was in fact the pivotal zone for the day and after the 1-2-3 break I was ready to go long full throttle on a pullback to the breakout level 1.3048 but price stalled at 1.3055 and no wicks came close to my entry.


Cable action mirrored EurUsd but even if the 4H action clarifies things, there was no convincing 15min action to get me aboard. Very choppy to me.


Kiwi cost me 10 pips today, and flipped to a long bias so I am currently waiting for a pullback to the 8320s zone in search for a continuation long setup.


EurAud broke lower this morning continuing it's trend but after waiting for a continuation short setup, price reached the level but never produced a trigger. Then it proceeded upwards toward last night's highs. Very frustrating indeed.

Shall we also include EurCad in this list? After putting in a higher low at 1.2855 and breaking higher, I was expecting a Pin pullback on the 1.2876 flip I had on my charts since yesterday...and instead I get a whacky doji-like thing...so no trade there either...

On the bright side: diddn't make a mess.

What I also hope to display with this post is my thought process going through the key points of the day...if someone has some pointers on my thought process (and/or pointers on how I may have played better today) it would be most enlightening.

[goldtop]

Before going into this post, let me excuse myself for "hogging" much space on this 3d. Please feel free to comment on whether I should post less or if I should alter my participation on the 3d. I have posted more since october than many in years...and feel sort of ashamed about it

Post as much content as often as you like jcp.
After all, that's what this place is all about.
Same goes for anyone else, especially the newer participants. The more you contribute, the more feedback you'll receive.

A lot of the long term regulars are more proficient & accustomed to the material & therefore don't feel the need to post as often. That is usually the case when folks become familiar with their own comfort levels, individual styles & risk profiles etc.

But just keep posting up your thoughts, views & idea's.....there are a lot of silent viewers/lurkers who I'm sure benefit from the interaction between everyone here, so your regular contributions aren't falling on deaf ears!

What I also hope to display with this post is my thought process going through the key points of the day...

Exactly, so continue to get them out there & share them with the other contributors.
2 or more heads are often better than 1, & everyone can learn or pick up little bits & pieces from each other whilst reviewing & re-visiting posts.

I've only just returned to the fray, as have one or two others, so it'll be a day or two before the likes of jjay, jimmy, Carll, joe etc get back to replying to posts.

[round number]

The 15 min chart shows my thoughts.
The zone highlighted yesterday was in fact the pivotal zone for the day and after the 1-2-3 break I was ready to go long full throttle on a pullback to the breakout level 1.3048 but price stalled at 1.3055 and no wicks came close to my entry.

I scratched a short eurusd bet @ b/e jcp as it moved back through 3055 this afternoon.
It looks like shorts liquidated more positions today, evidenced by the failure to print a lower low down through Friday's lows.
The first of their buy-back (trailing) stops fired off as price moved up through 3060 & friday's 3090 highs.

We'll soon get to see whether fresh buy orders now attempt to push it further into more stops @ 3125 & if so a short-term low will be in place especially if it's confirmed by another hourly higher swing low.

I'm with goldtop, keep posting merrily away. Although most here don't flood the thread with commentary, everyone regularly looks in & your contributions are both welcome & appreciated

[jcpfx]

Thank you both Goldtop & Round Number, for the support and encouragement!

Hope you had some good times during the holiday break!

[jcpfx]

Continuing along the rising 4H cycle, I just got into a Cable long on wick + stoch hook. Stop loss @ 1.6080 just below the wick.
I was expecting a slightly deeper pullback by 10-20 pips but the trigger presented itself here and thus was to try.


4H


15Min

Update: 9.14 AM CET...stopped out

[jcpfx]

Continuing along the rising 4H cycle, I just got into a Cable long on wick + stoch hook. Stop loss @ 1.6080 just below the wick.
I was expecting a slightly deeper pullback by 10-20 pips but the trigger presented itself here and thus was to try.


4H


15Min

Update: 9.14 AM CET...stopped out

Update: 2nd attempt at a Long here


If this doesn't work, I'll just sit in an angle and meditate

[speedbump]

Continuing along the rising 4H cycle, I just got into a Cable long on wick + stoch hook.
Update: 9.14 AM CET...stopped out

I don't like that bearish cycle on the sub-hourly chart at all jcp into today's early doors action, especially when the tokyo low fails to support it.
For me to re-engage a long after such a steady drop I would prefer to see a sub-hourly cycle going in the direction of my intended bet as opposed to trying to pick a likely pullback leg to get in.

Price has barely managed to retrace even a third of last weeks drop yet, & hasn't printed a 4H higher low.
For me, it's not a high probability long on that pair just yet.

Under these types of circumstances I like to see some further evidence of bid strength before engaging, but that's just me.

[jcpfx]

Continuing along the rising 4H cycle, I just got into a Cable long on wick + stoch hook.
Update: 9.14 AM CET...stopped out

I don't like that bearish cycle on the sub-hourly chart at all jcp into today's early doors action, especially when the tokyo low fails to support it.
For me to re-engage a long after such a steady drop I would prefer to see a sub-hourly cycle going in the direction of my intended bet as opposed to trying to pick a likely pullback leg to get in.

Price has barely managed to retrace even a third of last weeks drop yet, & hasn't printed a 4H higher low.
For me, it's not a high probability long on that pair just yet.

Under these types of circumstances I like to see some further evidence of bid strength before engaging, but that's just me.

Hey speedbump,

thanks for the feedback. I really never thought about it like that actually...that playing off a wick on a support level is more generally an attempt to pick a bottom. I also have a fatal attraction for wicks on the 1h and 15min frames so it's also tough for me to ignore them I also love the risk:reward they can give you.

Basically what you like to do is wait for a 1-2-3 entry where the cycle on the sub-hourly is pointing in your direction, correct? Because by definition, with the type of setup we are playing, we are looking to enter in the direction of the primary TF (4H for me) off the secondary TF (15min for me). So I interpreted it as a "fade" setup on the secondary tf...

Regarding the 4H move, the move I'm trying to get into is (hopefully) the long that will take us back up towards the 6170 zone (50% of last week's decline) and the 4H low i'm expecting would "look good" right here in the 1.6070/80 zone. At least that's what I was looking for...

[speedbump]

Basically what you like to do is wait for a 1-2-3 entry where the cycle on the sub-hourly is pointing in your direction, correct?

Yes.
So in your specific example I would have preferred to open up my gbp/usd chart this morning to see the Tokyo low intact & price pressuring either yesterday's high or the Tokyo high.

At that point, if the 15min offered up a hook extreme and/or a potential 1-2-3, that would be my higher probability opportunity to get long, because I would also have a 15m higher swing low to place my stop behind.

with the type of setup we are playing, we are looking to enter in the direction of the primary TF (4H for me) off the secondary TF (15min for me)

Correct, but at the moment (& based on where price is currently trading) I don't see the 4H bias on that pair as bullish.
In my view it's neutral & thus I rank it as lower probability.

I do however like the look of eur/gbp to the long side. The 4H has printed a couple of recent higher lows & the 15min is establishing a clean cycle motion offering reasonable risk placement.
That's the type of price action I prefer to witness when considering placing a bet.

The price behaviour on gbp/nzd & nzd/jpy also typify the above criteria.