Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

So now that the current bias has been identified & established from your 4 hour primary timeframe you can view & plot the immediate close quarter swings from your secondary 15min timeframe knowing exactly where the first violation level is on this bearish move.

Until the 15min prints another lower high, 6175 is your fulcrum or initial violation level keeping the short bias valid.
Any set up/trigger combinations that take your fancy below that lower high are now the higher probability option until the cycle flips again.

And following on from kyle's cycle violation/fulcrum levels from yesterday, we now have more information available from which to establish fresh updated zones of likely reaction.

The 6175 violation level can be adjusted down to 6100-6110 & Euro has a lower level too at the 3050 area.
Those are the levels that would temporarily arrest this bearish leg on the current descent.
Until price trades back through those levels, continuation shorts are the higher probability play.

When the lower high ledges eventually get violated to the long side that will be the time to hold fire on shorts, scroll back out to your primary timeframes & plot the necessary swing zones to begin establishing the next technical move.

Thank you for the follow up Sen7en,

I had also seen the Euro that way this morning, but in another fashion. 1.3050 is yesterday's low and it became a 15min flip during the Asia window. As you may have seen, one of my short term tactical plays is to fade the prior day's high/low in accordance with the right candle and time. Today I could have shorted upon the retest of that level at the 7.30-7.45 candle (CET) which was also a high stoch reading + pin
BUT
1) Today is NFP friday and in a low liquidity environment, I thought it was better to stand down completely given I don't have many years of experience.
2) The test happened before 8AM CET which I have noticed is a key time for London to decide what to do in the first part of the day.

On the 3d many have referenced the London Window to be the best time to look for setups and I frankly thought that the relevant action started at/after 8AM CET...

[jcpfx]

Only talking, no trading today. EurNzd has been on the watchlist since the beginning of 2013, it continued it's descent and today retraced to it's prior highs + yesterday's low print (without invalidating downwards cycle on the 4H chart - thanks Kyle & Sarah )



Going onto the 15Min chart (secondary tactical chart for me) a wick + stoch hook appeared at the right place at the right time



Hypothetical entry @ 11.45 CET at 1.5833 with a SL just above the wick 1.5845, and SL would currently have been shifted down to 1.5827 and trade would thus be risk-free.

Any thoughts on this analysis would be much appreciated...just for sports though - no real trade involved.

[strobe]

Only talking, no trading today.
EurNzd has been on the watchlist since the beginning of 2013, it continued it's descent and today retraced to it's prior highs + yesterday's low print (without invalidating downwards cycle on the 4H chart - thanks Kyle & Sarah )

Going onto the 15Min chart (secondary tactical chart for me) a wick + stoch hook appeared at the right place at the right time
Any thoughts on this analysis would be much appreciated

If you keep your mind, your view of the technicals & your analysis as clear & succinct as that you won't have too much trouble moving forward.

It appears you're now getting in tune with linking the appropriate (primary/secondary) timeframes to your risk & trading objectives & that will hopefully keep you facing & trading the right way.

If you can't immediately spot a fluid or uncomplicated bias/cycle sequence then leave that particular pair alone & continue flipping through the selection until something pops out at you.
Always try to make life as easy as possible.
Obviously sometimes there will be nothing out there at all, but quite often one or two currencies will be displaying the types of quality behaviour we're seeking to offer up a higher probability set up.

Patience & discipline!!

[jcpfx]

Only talking, no trading today.
EurNzd has been on the watchlist since the beginning of 2013, it continued it's descent and today retraced to it's prior highs + yesterday's low print (without invalidating downwards cycle on the 4H chart - thanks Kyle & Sarah )

Going onto the 15Min chart (secondary tactical chart for me) a wick + stoch hook appeared at the right place at the right time
Any thoughts on this analysis would be much appreciated

If you keep your mind, your view of the technicals & your analysis as clear & succinct as that you won't have too much trouble moving forward.

It appears you're now getting in tune with linking the appropriate (primary/secondary) timeframes to your risk & trading objectives & that will hopefully keep you facing & trading the right way.

If you can't immediately spot a fluid or uncomplicated bias/cycle sequence then leave that particular pair alone & continue flipping through the selection until something pops out at you.
Always try to make life as easy as possible.
Obviously sometimes there will be nothing out there at all, but quite often one or two currencies will be displaying the types of quality behaviour we're seeking to offer up a higher probability set up.

Patience & discipline!!

Hey Strobe,

I found & joined the forum with an understanding of market dynamics that has not changed. Fortunately, my fiancèe and I had set our minds to finding out how the markets move a while back, so the concept of demand/supply areas (s&r for some), flips, doji/pin bars were known and had been put to use. That also goes for the practical application of the "enter on retrace" method that has been perfected here by practically all those I have seen.

What HAS gone through a tremendous improvement has been :
1) Clearing Up time frame links ==> a level is a level, on any time frame...but you need to choose and stick to 1 primary to get your bias.
2) Managing trades ==> choosing and using a secondary frame and following the cycle until it signalls you out can lead to some huge trades by my standars (anything above 100 pips is huge for me)
3) The nitty gritty stuff: connecting really well the S&R zones with the primary cycles with the Bias and then getting the secondary charts to work it out.

What needs work? Discipline (to stay in with the 15Min cycle...) and constant practice.

As I said yesterday...I hope nobody is keeping tabs...all this mentoring here could get expensive

So thank you for the encouragement and may health&wealth also be with you in 2013!

[jcpfx]

Hope you are all enjoying your weekend!

Below is what I'll be looking at going into the week and what angle i'll be looking from:


Trend is down but friday's action is indicating some will to test
this downwards movement before continuing. Looking for a long
entry for a ride up to last week's key zone in 3150/80.


Cable is essentially the same as EurUsd as the market may want
to question this recent sell-off by testing the 6170/6220 area.


Here we are looking to see what happens around the 2875 marker
and it holds, maybe we will he headed upwards to test the decline
at least around 1.3000.


EurAud structure mirrors EurCad.


Kiwi is the toughest to call...essentially we're waiting for a lower high
to form right around...here! And if it does, we'll be looking downwards.
If it fails and prints a higher high, we will step back and reasess.

As usual, any comments would be more than welcome

[2Taps]

Below is what I'll be looking at going into the week and what angle i'll be looking from:
As usual, any comments would be more than welcome

Can't see there's anything to add to what you've already annotated jcp.
You have your game plan sorted, your specific framework & decision triggers mapped out for each pair, you know what you're looking for in order to take action & I presume you have an exit strategy in place in the event of things not going to plan.

I also assume that you have a plan in place to call upon if the price action fails to reach any of those potential entry levels before moving in the direction of your pre-trade analysis?

The only other advice I have is simply to repeat what's been dispensed already by strobe last Friday, & that would be to focus on those currencies or pairs displaying the more straightforward technical behavior & avoid those that are scrappy, choppy & don't immediately jump out at you as higher probability candidates.

As he (& others have so regularly repeated) said, always try to make life as easy as possible for yourself!

[jcpfx]

I presume you have an exit strategy in place in the event of things not going to plan.

My stop loss always depends on where & how the trigger presents itself. If I get a pin-candle on a key level, I place my stop just above the wick; if I get in on a 1-2-3 then the stop is behind the "1". The stoch hook almost always coincides with a pin or a 1-2-3 so that's about it...

I also assume that you have a plan in place to call upon if the price action fails to reach any of those potential entry levels before moving in the direction of your pre-trade analysis?

That also depends on what happens and how it happens...on the EurUsd, for example, I would short also if we get failures at 1.3090 into London and the trigger presents itself...OR if we fail to push higher and break below 1.3040 than I would look to short the test of that same level from below...etc. etc.

I think that formulating alternative plans comes with more experience...if you have some suggestions as to what could play out as a secondary option on EurCad and EurAud, maybe I could learn something

As he (& others have so regularly repeated) said, always try to make life as easy as possible for yourself!

Amen

[2Taps]

I think that formulating alternative plans comes with more experience...if you have some suggestions as to what could play out as a secondary option on EurCad and EurAud, maybe I could learn something

I probably possess less experience than most on here jcp, so I've tended to soak up all the info, test the bits & pieces out that appeal to me, ensure it fits with my intended game plan & maintain a steady line.

Quite often in the past when I've plotted particular watch levels where I expect price to gravitate towards, & it fell short, I'd let the price action go without me & miss a decent move. I would be so blinkered on trying to prioritize the key likely reaction levels I would overlook or underestimate the capacity for the market to ignore my pre-planned & obvious markers & head off in my original direction without me.

These days, although I go through a very similar pre-trade preparation to you & the other guys here, I only view my highlighted zones of potential S&R as possible spotlight areas. I no longer treat them as "entry only or exit only" zones.
The benefit of that view (to me anyway) is it offers me more flexibility in my decision making which in turn encourages me to focus more on the price cycles & trade what's in front of me at the time as opposed to trading a level or zone.

So for instance, if I'd marked out that 6170/6200 area on gbp as my priority reaction zone, but price began deflating just atop 6100 or 6120 & began printing lower timeframe bearish cyclical activity, I wouldn't hesitate to enter a short providing I could locate acceptable risk to test the continued bearish tone.

That's really what I meant by that comment.

[jcpfx]

...
The benefit of that view (to me anyway) is it offers me more flexibility in my decision making which in turn encourages me to focus more on the price cycles & trade what's in front of me at the time as opposed to trading a level or zone.

So for instance, if I'd marked out that 6170/6200 area on gbp as my priority reaction zone, but price began deflating just atop 6100 or 6120 & began printing lower timeframe bearish cyclical activity, I wouldn't hesitate to enter a short providing I could locate acceptable risk to test the continued bearish tone.

That's really what I meant by that comment.

Thanks 2Taps, I agree that flexibility is one of the keys and I do have alternative plans even if I really like it when the original levels are tested

[jcpfx]

Good Morning Specs,

alternative planning took place this morning on my desk as all but Kiwi have acted differently than planned. So lets start with Kiwi:


Lower high has materialized, calling for further short setups.


Right candle at the right level at the right time: short on 15Min pin with SL above weekly open

Short @ 8295 SL 8305

....as I am writing this, I was just stopped out as the Euro is being heavily sold on the crosses and that is keeping Kiwi elevated.

Note: EurAud & EurNzd are at YTD Lows

I'm standing still on all else for now.