Technical Templates

[shona123]

Happy Holidays with our Gingerbread men adventures:

Ha ha ha, very cool jcp!

A very merry xmas & a peaceful & prosperous new year to everyone.
I hope you all hear his bells!

See you all next year bright & early...

[jcpfx]

Happy New Year to everyone,

getting ready for the first moves as the market gets warmed up again. Here are my thoughts:


EurUsd ended 2012 in range 1.3150-1.3300 but longs seem to be prevailing still at those 1.3150s. That zone is still a valid bid zone until broken and tested from below.
The only counter trend trades I would try would be failures at lows if price action shows exaustion.


GbpUsd is trending upwards and has a bid zone in 6140/80s. Would try a counter trend on this only at 6310s, given the right price action.


Kiwi is stair-stepping upwards and has a bid zone in 8210/30 with a nice flip at 8220 that I would expect to hold. No counter trend indications here yet.


EurNzd trending down and 1.6015 plus 1.6070 seem like two levels that would get me interested in shorting it.

Would love to hear your input on this

Cheers to all!

[zilly]

Happy New Year to everyone,
getting ready for the first moves as the market gets warmed up again.

Here are my thoughts:
would love to hear your input on this

Hi jcp, happy new year to you too.
I for one can't see anything amiss with any of your watch levels.

I also have 2 of your highlighted pairs near the top of my current watchlist (eur/usd & nzd/usd) & for what it's worth have earmarked those exact same shaded area's as potential reaction pullback levels too.
The Cable & eur/nzd pullback zones also look ok, but then so they should, considering they're plotted in accordance with the usual technical significance illustrated so often on here.

I know a few of the guys won't be kicking off until next week, but for those intending to blow the dust off early, good luck!

[jcpfx]

Happy New Year to everyone,
getting ready for the first moves as the market gets warmed up again.

Here are my thoughts:
would love to hear your input on this

Hi jcp, happy new year to you too.
I for one can't see anything amiss with any of your watch levels.

I also have 2 of your highlighted pairs near the top of my current watchlist (eur/usd & nzd/usd) & for what it's worth have earmarked those exact same shaded area's as potential reaction pullback levels too.
The Cable & eur/nzd pullback zones also look ok, but then so they should, considering they're plotted in accordance with the usual technical significance illustrated so often on here.

I know a few of the guys won't be kicking off until next week, but for those intending to blow the dust off early, good luck!

Hey Zilly,

thanks for the reply It's nice to have a partner in crime sometimes...

I am also well aware of the low liquidity period and will be trading 1/4 of my regular size until mid-January.

Ok, time to hit the sack now. Good luck to you!

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

big gaps everywhere this morning, in response to the Fiscal Cliff last minute resolution. It may be a temporary fix, but the markets liked it and have given back all the USD they accumulated before hand.

Many faders are probably watching these gaps like hawks for gap-close trades (Even if gaps don't necessarily close when or how you'd want them to). It's a long ways down to the long-entry zones (in line with trend) so I myself am in a GbpUsd short (minimal risk on the table)



6275 is my primary target here so the R:R was acceptable to take this trade...

I am also "hoping" that Cable is held down by EurGbp as it goes up towards the short entry are in 8160s...

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

big gaps everywhere this morning, in response to the Fiscal Cliff last minute resolution. It may be a temporary fix, but the markets liked it and have given back all the USD they accumulated before hand.

Many faders are probably watching these gaps like hawks for gap-close trades (Even if gaps don't necessarily close when or how you'd want them to). It's a long ways down to the long-entry zones (in line with trend) so I myself am in a GbpUsd short (minimal risk on the table)



6275 is my primary target here so the R:R was acceptable to take this trade...

I am also "hoping" that Cable is held down by EurGbp as it goes up towards the short entry are in 8160s...

Update: stop @ par and trade in the black by 20 pips now...

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

big gaps everywhere this morning, in response to the Fiscal Cliff last minute resolution. It may be a temporary fix, but the markets liked it and have given back all the USD they accumulated before hand.

Many faders are probably watching these gaps like hawks for gap-close trades (Even if gaps don't necessarily close when or how you'd want them to). It's a long ways down to the long-entry zones (in line with trend) so I myself am in a GbpUsd short (minimal risk on the table)



6275 is my primary target here so the R:R was acceptable to take this trade...

I am also "hoping" that Cable is held down by EurGbp as it goes up towards the short entry are in 8160s...

Update: stop @ par and trade in the black by 20 pips now...

I'm out on this bullish pin + 16 pips. Nice to start the year with a profit!

Now for a newbie question: when there are such large gaps, do they tend to alter the order book structure? I mean 6180s for Cable are the main zone for bids on my chart but does it happen often that bids hold this above 1.6270 (gap close) and push higher?

Thanks

[visualxray]

I'm out on this bullish pin + 16 pips. Nice to start the year with a profit!

when there are such large gaps, do they tend to alter the order book structure?
I mean 6180s for Cable are the main zone for bids on my chart but does it happen often that bids hold this above gap close and push higher?

Congratulations on the first profits of 2013!

You need to appreciate that we're still not operating yet in normal liquidity conditions.
A good percentage of the speculative interbank market are still awol, therefore prices will be reactive to thin & light order books. This will have an abnormal effect on breakout, gap & pullback plays.

There won't be a very large pre-market order book in play this morning as most of the market players will have squared up & re-allocated prior to the holiday break. Most of that volume will need to be re-adjusted & brought back into play as the market absorbs the fiscal cliff drama & the follow-through repurcusions of that event.

There's no rule that says gaps always have to get filled in order for prices to continue in the direction of the dominant trend.
Quite often they do, but I've seen plenty that don't fill for days & sometimes weeks.
As with virtually every condition, it greatly depends on what is currently influencing & orchestrating the price action either specifically (to that particular currency) or generically in the market.

[jcpfx]

Hey Visual,

happy new year to you! Thanks for the encouragement I am fully aware that the players are not yet all present, but the situation was very tempting. I also risked very little on it so it wouldn't spoil my day if it went sour.

The only other trade that might take center stage is EurGbp, sitting in 8140s right now but crawling back towards the 8160/80 zone of interest.

But if I may enquire, what exactly is the significance of low liquidity? I am not experiencing bad fills or wider spreads on my broker... and I already know that price action may have less significance. But if the market approaches a level, gives the right candle action and risk-reward...why not pull the trigger?

[visualxray]

if I may enquire, what exactly is the significance of low liquidity?

Just that in these types of circumstances, anything can happen.

Moves that ordinarily would get supported at a particular technical level often don't.
Breakouts will pop & fade very quickly due to lack of sufficient follow-through due to illiquid participation.
Prices can shift aggressively for no apparent logical reason, other than the fact a medium sized order block goes through, which under normal volume trade wouldn't impact or affect the movement, but because the particular instrument is thin, the move is exaggerated.

No-one is or was suggesting that these periods aren't tradeable from a retail angle, because clearly they are. But from a wider wholesale perspective (which one or two of these guys participate in) it can cause erratic dealing conditions.

As long as folks are aware of the potential knock-on effects, then no harm done.
The last part of my reply was simply explaining the reasonings about the order book & why this week is still considered a bedding in period for the wider market.