Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

Hey JimmyMac,

I need some time to digest everything you wrote! Get back to you later on that

Wanted to update my observation on Cable in the meantime: scratched out that idea as price rallied over the prior high in 5960s.
Another reason why it's probably better that i'm not really in the mood to jump in today...i'm plainly slow on my feet. Cable diddn't break below 5925
which was yesterday's low and instead rallied and held above the 5945 flip (& daily pivot). Did I even think of following it up, after a clear failure at lows? Nope...

[JimmyMac]

Hey JimmyMac,
I need some time to digest everything you wrote! Get back to you later on that

I'll sling up a visual to help explain the text in that last post.

The previous daily bar closes out & you know what level the low of that bar printed (82.26).
Presuming your risk appetite is high/aggressive & you fancy taking a very speculative short off the low of that doji, you now have the option of dialling into any timeframe of your choice to wait for a likely set up/trigger if price begins to threaten that low.
We'll use a 5 minute chart to demonstrate what i wrote in the previous post.

5 min has the low of the previous day's bar highlighted (82.26) & the local tokyo range low (82.18).
As europe begins stirring into life, price pushes through both the prior day's low @ 82.26 & today's local range low @ 82.18 & pulls back (shaded area).

High risk rollers intent on taking an early-bird short to check out any profit taking and/or accelerated short follow through potential, have a couple opportunities to climb in at the circled shaded areas, with a pretty tight stop back above the recent highs.
Not exactly a high probability play given the current fundamental theme & one-way momentum cycle, but it explains what i was talking about in that previous post & i hope it better explains what i was referring to.

[shona123]

As far as UsdJpy is concerned, along with all other Jpy pairs, I think the daily faders have started yesterday on the Daily "doji".
Any thoughts about short opportunities arising here?

High risk rollers intent on taking an early-bird short to check out any profit taking and/or accelerated short follow through potential, have a couple opportunities to climb in at the circled shaded areas, with a pretty tight stop back above the recent highs.
Not exactly a high probability play given the current fundamental theme & one-way momentum cycle, but it explains what i was talking about in that previous post & i hope it better explains what i was referring to.

I think you're right to stay clear & hang fire on any USD/JPY shorting for the time being jcp, at least until the picture becomes a little clearer about how the market wants to proceed with factoring in the upcoming Japanese government administration changes & their formal rhetoric (& stance) regards weakening the Yen.

Obviously fundamentals are directing this move & the technicals will price in & continually readjust fair value as more information presents itself, but don't overlook the Dollar Index when assessing the forward potential of any of the majors, especially when looking for signs of continued strength/weakness when one of the majors goes on an aggressive run.

The trade (institutional desks) use technical guides such as the 50, 100 & 200 day & hour moving averages & fibonacci levels off the big timeframe swing moves to assist with forward planning & because they rule the roost regards volume/liquidity & lenght/depth of market duration, it pays to at least be aware of what they're looking at.

The daily chart of the index closed into an area of prior S&R at the 80.20 level this week, having bounced the 100dma over the past week & slipped through the 200.
Clear support lies below & any attempt to stall this descent & move back up will translate to lower highs & lows on USD/JPY & the other majors.
Industry players will be watching closely & observing those averages next time the Dollar decides to revisit those levels to see how price reacts, especially when they marry up with clear zonal S&R activity.


The alternative to Jimmy's aggressive risk appetite player(s) is the more conservative approach & one which is regularly referred to on here.
If you wish to use the larger timeframes as your primary template & you're looking to take an each-way view of current price action, then the traditional lower high/lower low (via perhaps a 1-2-3) on a smaller timeframe such as a 4 or 1 hour chart is a viable prospect.

But i very much agree with Jim & speedbump in that this currency (Yen) is being driven on strong fundamentals & trying to catch reversals can be a very tricky occupation.
To each their own of course, but i would err on the side of caution when attempting to short this pair (going long yen) & perhaps give yourself a wide margin for error until a very clear bearish technical outlook begins to establish itself.

Until that scenario unfolds, the higher probability bet is to continue seeking out moves in line with dominant & well supported flows.

[jcpfx]

Good evening to all,

here are some charts with the levels I'm watching going into the week. Most evidently, if the levels shown are breached than it will be sit & reasess time. Light calendar tomorrow, so don't expect much. Being monday, also be weary of fighting the early London flows. Would love to hear your thoughts. When flipping my coin, I always use the 4H chart as my primary trend TF, and then flip down to 15 min charts for Pinocchio candle entries or closes above/below 15min or 1H flips in the direction of the trend. I have noticed that the 15min frame produces better pin-bar signals & close abpve/below signals than the 5Min chart or 30 min chart. The 5 min tends to like moving averages more...but I'm more a levels person than anything else.

I am still testing higher TF entries, and am primarily studying Pinocchio entries on the 4H chart in direction of the trend.

So here we go...


SP500 4H chart > 4H trend is up, and the obvious level to watch is 1396 for bids.


Crude is choppy but still in a bid tone on the 4H frame. Looking to see
what happens at 87.50s even if the main bid zone is 87.00. Also
curious to see what happens at 89.50s, a break or a rotation down?


Euro is clearly well bid, with some friday stops tripped. Will be
looking for bids around the 1.2900/20 zone.


UsdCad did not pull back to the original short zone at parity
and instead shot down earlier. Time to look for shorts around
9950s.


UsdJpy is still surprizingly well bid up here as Shona & Jimmy pointed out already. Faders are already
stepping in but we could get a massive squeeze above 82.50s
(short covering) if the market is so inclined. Will look to short this
only on a confirmed lower high below 82.50s and maybe a hold below 82.00s.


Also, my charts don't show them but there are still some gaps to fill on the FX pairs.

Check out http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=h1 (a site mentioned previously on the thread) to see where
they are as we may retrace directly into them before getting a chance to enter with the trend.

I also found www.alertfx.com which will send me an email when price reaches the level I specified on the various currency pairs. Could be useful as to not loose track of anything...

Hope you all had a good weekend and good luck going into the week!

[jcpfx]

The alternative to Jimmy's aggressive risk appetite player(s) is the more conservative approach & one which is regularly referred to on here.
If you wish to use the larger timeframes as your primary template & you're looking to take an each-way view of current price action, then the traditional lower high/lower low (via perhaps a 1-2-3) on a smaller timeframe such as a 4 or 1 hour chart is a viable prospect.

But i very much agree with Jim & speedbump in that this currency (Yen) is being driven on strong fundamentals & trying to catch reversals can be a very tricky occupation.
To each their own of course, but i would err on the side of caution when attempting to short this pair (going long yen) & perhaps give yourself a wide margin for error until a very clear bearish technical outlook begins to establish itself.

Until that scenario unfolds, the higher probability bet is to continue seeking out moves in line with dominant & well supported flows.

Hey Shona,

thanks for offering you view. I do use a 1-2-3 signal and a few days ago I posted a trade here that was generated from that configuration. Please note that I especially like 1-2-3s that appear with a clear flat support (resistance) to break in a downtrend(uptrend) like GbpChf's 1.5030 level as per the chart. Then, I look for a 15min hold below (or even a 5min sometimes) the level for a breakout entry or whatever looks good. The level to me is more important than the exact entry trigger, which is a personal view that may very well be wrong.



Would love to hear your thoughts on that

[jcpfx]

Hey JimmyMac,
I need some time to digest everything you wrote! Get back to you later on that

I'll sling up a visual to help explain the text in that last post.

The previous daily bar closes out & you know what level the low of that bar printed (82.26).
Presuming your risk appetite is high/aggressive & you fancy taking a very speculative short off the low of that doji, you now have the option of dialling into any timeframe of your choice to wait for a likely set up/trigger if price begins to threaten that low.
We'll use a 5 minute chart to demonstrate what i wrote in the previous post.

5 min has the low of the previous day's bar highlighted (82.26) & the local tokyo range low (82.18).
As europe begins stirring into life, price pushes through both the prior day's low @ 82.26 & today's local range low @ 82.18 & pulls back (shaded area).

High risk rollers intent on taking an early-bird short to check out any profit taking and/or accelerated short follow through potential, have a couple opportunities to climb in at the circled shaded areas, with a pretty tight stop back above the recent highs.
Not exactly a high probability play given the current fundamental theme & one-way momentum cycle, but it explains what i was talking about in that previous post & i hope it better explains what i was referring to.

Hey Jimmy,

yeah, I went back to look at that on my chart and saw what you meant. I think that what still gets me is the lack of mental awareness and precision when the time is right. I have discussed this with my fiancèe who works with me and is learning the trade with me. Basically, up until friday I was wondering what was wrong with me, but when we looked closely, it seemed to boil down to exhaustion. I get up around 7-7.30 AM CET and from 7.45 onwards I stare at screens. Even if there is nothing to be done. Then, when there is something to do, I often am mentally tired and miss the shot. I will be working on "dosing my attention" this week, and will let you know how it goes...

[shona123]

Hey Shona,
I especially like 1-2-3s that appear with a clear flat support (resistance) to break in a downtrend (uptrend) like GbpChf's 1.5030 level as per the chart.
The level to me is more important than the exact entry trigger, which is a personal view that may very well be wrong.
Would love to hear your thoughts on that

You won't get any arguments from me jcp, or anyone else on here for that matter about the level or area being more important than the set up/trigger mechanism.

You can spot these types of entry triggers all the time, all over the chart, but unless you filter them to ensure you're only triggering when the conditions are favorable and/or the higher probability odds are stacked accordingly, the outcome will be frustrating & financially painful

[castor]

Hi guys

Just wondering, what charting programs are you all using, that is a good alternative to MT4? Preferably one that allows adjustment of the vertical scale to clearly show round numbers.

Thanks!

[zilly]

The readily available one's commonly presented on here appear to be either netdania.com, intellicharts (fxtrek.com) & tradingview.com castor.
I'm not entirely sure what you mean by your vertical line requirement, but you could try searching for & experimenting with those 3 for starters.

Obviously there are subscription charting packages out there such as e-signal, but from what i've seen they're really no better or any more advantageous for spot fx than the freely available ones.

[jcpfx]

Good Morning all,

this morning many cyclical pairs are heading towards friday's high, where I will be cautios as they have not retraced much overnight. If we get failures at highs, I might step in for a scalp short counter trend...

The only pair that's following the plan laid down yesterday is UsdJpy that has formed a lower high and therefore has become "short-able" below 82.06.



Good luck to all of you this week!