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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 22, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:



USD/JPY remains near 161.5, with the response of Japanese authorities becoming increasingly important. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that the authorities are ready to respond to currency movements at any time if necessary. The exchange rate has approached the 2024 high of 161.96; a move above that level would leave the yen at its weakest point since 1986. As a result, official comments have a meaningful impact on market expectations for the pair.

The US dollar’s interest rate advantage remains in place. The Federal Reserve left its rate range at 3.50%–3.75%, citing a resilient economy and elevated inflation, while two-year US Treasury yields rose to their highest level since early 2025. The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to around 1.0% on June 16 and signalled that further policy normalisation remains possible, although the gap with US rates is still substantial.

The risk profile for USD/JPY has become asymmetric: the macroeconomic backdrop supports the US dollar, but the probability of an official response from Japan rises as the pair approaches sensitive levels. Even without direct action from the authorities, growing expectations of intervention may quickly support the yen. Therefore, the more cautious base case suggests a decline in the pair if the current news environment persists.

Trading idea: SELL 161.55, SL 161.85, TP 160.65

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 26 June 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4195.00, SL 4225.00, TP 4105.00




Gold starts the week near $4,195 per ounce after recovering from recent lows. The main constraint remains expectations of higher US interest rates: following the Federal Reserve’s decision, the US dollar strengthened and short-term US Treasury yields rose. This reduces the appeal of a non-yielding asset.

Progress in US-Iran negotiations has reduced demand for defensive assets, although the fragility of the agreements may limit further downside. US core inflation data could reinforce expectations of a restrictive policy stance. If this backdrop remains in place, the priority remains a decline in XAUUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 4195.00, SL 4225.00, TP 4105.00


#SP500: BUY 7520, SL 7460, TP 7700




The US equity market starts the week with continued interest in the technology sector. Progress in US-Iran negotiations has eased concerns about rising energy costs, while demand for semiconductor stocks has supported Asian markets. This creates a favourable environment for #SP500.

The main risk for the index is linked to interest rate expectations. The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75%, while the market has increased the probability of another rate hike later this year. US Treasury yields may limit valuations of growth stocks, but resilient earnings expectations and lower geopolitical tensions continue to support the case for further gains in #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7520, SL 7460, TP 7700


#BRENT: SELL 81.00, SL 82.00, TP 78.00




Brent starts the week near $81 per barrel, with the outlook for shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main factor. US-Iran negotiations have raised hopes of lower tensions, but the final agreement is designed to last 60 days, and the recovery of shipping activity and export flows may take time.

At the same time, diplomatic progress is easing concerns about a supply shortage. The IEA expects a gradual recovery in regional exports and sees a supply surplus further ahead; EIA inventory data will provide an additional indication of market conditions. If the negotiations do not break down, the fundamental backdrop allows for a decline in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 81.00, SL 82.00, TP 78.00


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