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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 12, 2026 USD​JPY

USDJPY:



The yen remains in focus as USD/JPY stays close to an area that is sensitive for Japanese authorities, around 160 per dollar. The US dollar continues to receive support from the interest rate differential. However, a further rise in the pair could increase the risk of official warnings. For the market, this means that even with continued demand for the US dollar, buying the pair at these levels becomes less stable.

The fundamental environment in Japan is gradually changing. The market expects that the Bank of Japan may raise rates at its upcoming meeting in response to inflation risks, rising import costs, and yen weakness. This scenario does not remove the yield gap between the United States and Japan, but it makes this factor less one-sided. The longer USD/JPY stays elevated, the more visible the risk of a policy response becomes.

US data also does not give the dollar a clear advantage. The core part of producer inflation came in softer than expected, and the market shifted its expectations for the next Federal Reserve move to a later date. Against this backdrop, the combination of Bank of Japan expectations and the risk of action by Japanese authorities may limit further gains in USD/JPY. Under the base-case scenario, a move lower in the pair looks more cautious.

Trading idea: SELL 160.25, SL 160.55, TP 159.35

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Indices that refuse to give in

The long-term growth of major stock indices #SP500, #NQ100, #NIKKEI, #DAX30, #FTSE100, and #ESTX50 is supported by the development of leading companies, rising corporate profits, and technological trends such as artificial intelligence and digitalization, as well as a steady inflow of capital from institutional investors. Additional support comes from the diversified structure of these indices, regular rebalancing of their components, the recovery of the global economy after crises, and expectations of more accommodative monetary policy during periods of slowing inflation.



Stock indices once again confirm their status as one of the most resilient instruments for a long-term approach. Unlike individual stocks, an index reflects the performance of a group of leading companies. This reduces dependence on any single corporate story and allows investors to follow the growth of an entire market or sector.

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Long-term growth drivers of indices:

#SP500 — further growth may be supported by the resilience of the U.S. economy, strong corporate earnings, high diversification, and the continued expansion of major technology companies.
#NQ100 — key growth drivers are linked to artificial intelligence, cloud technologies, semiconductors, business digitalization, and the high margins of the tech sector.
#NIKKEI — the index may benefit from corporate reforms in Japan, increased interest from foreign investors, a weaker yen, and the strong positions of Japanese export-oriented companies.
#DAX30 — growth may be driven by the industrial sector, export-focused companies, the defense industry, and a recovery in business activity in Germany.
#FTSE100 — the index may gain from strong positions in energy, commodities, banking, and dividend-paying companies with global exposure.
#ESTX50 — further support may come from leading eurozone companies, economic recovery in Europe, the banking sector, and expectations of more accommodative monetary policy.

Analysts at FreshForex believe that #SP500, #NQ100, #NIKKEI, #DAX30, #FTSE100, and #ESTX50 maintain long-term potential not because of short-term market spikes, but due to more fundamental factors: growth in corporate earnings, technological advancement, recovery in business activity, and sustained investor interest in the world’s leading companies. As long as these drivers remain in place, major stock indices may continue their upward movement despite periodic corrections and external risks. For long-term markets, the key factor is not short-term volatility, but the ability of companies to remain profitable and adapt to new economic conditions.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 15, 2026 EURUSD​

EURUSD:



The euro is supported by the ECB’s decision to raise interest rates and revise its inflation forecasts higher. For EUR/USD, the key factor is not only the rate move itself, but also the signal that the central bank is ready to contain the pass-through of the energy shock into prices. At the same time, the eurozone growth forecast was lowered, so demand for the euro remains cautious. The region’s economy is sensitive to energy costs and weak business activity.

The US dollar is losing ground after reports of a framework agreement between the US and Iran and a decline in oil prices. For the market, this reduces concerns over a new wave of energy-driven inflation and makes expectations for the Federal Reserve less one-sided. The US central bank is likely to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. However, if pressure from oil prices eases, demand for the US dollar as a defensive asset may decline.

As a result, EUR/USD has room to recover, although the pair’s upside is limited by weak eurozone prospects. A scenario in which the euro remains supported by the ECB while the US dollar loses part of its caution premium looks more sustainable. If the current fundamental backdrop remains in place, the buying idea is consistent with a moderate shift in sentiment in favor of EUR/USD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1600, SL 1.1570, TP 1.1690

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 19 June 2026


XAUUSD: BUY 4325.00, SL 4295.00, TP 4415.00



Gold starts the week with buyers retaining the advantage. A weaker US dollar and lower US Treasury yields after the preliminary US-Iran agreement improve conditions for XAUUSD. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting on June 16–17, where interest rate and inflation projections will be important. As expectations of a tighter policy stance ease, demand for the metal may remain steady.

A lower geopolitical premium could limit interest in gold, but the weaker dollar and lower real yields are more important for the metal at this stage. If the Federal Reserve does not strengthen its restrictive signals, buyers may keep the initiative. Therefore, the BUY idea is in line with the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: BUY 4325.00, SL 4295.00, TP 4415.00


#SP500: BUY 7517, SL 7442, TP 7742



The #SP500 enters the week with support from an improving market backdrop. Lower oil prices reduce inflation concerns and help the market approach the Federal Reserve meeting with more confidence. This is important for the index through capital costs and earnings expectations, especially after the recent pressure on the technology sector.

At the same time, renewed demand for equities remains dependent on the Federal Reserve’s comments and the reaction of US Treasury yields. If the central bank does not strengthen expectations of a rate increase and corporate forecasts do not deteriorate, the index may retain its advantage. Under this scenario, the BUY idea appears more sustainable.

Trading idea: BUY 7517, SL 7442, TP 7742


#BRENT: SELL 83.75, SL 86.00, TP 77.00




Brent starts the week under pressure after the geopolitical premium declined. The preliminary US-Iran agreement and expectations of renewed movement through the Strait of Hormuz reduce concerns over supply disruptions. For #BRENT, this shifts market attention toward a potential recovery in supply.

Oil is still supported by low US inventories and caution over the timing of normalised flows. However, OPEC+’s decision to raise July output targets adds pressure. If EIA data does not show another strong decline in inventories, the baseline scenario allows for continued selling.

Trading idea: SELL 83.75, SL 86.00, TP 77.00


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