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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 15, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is holding near 1.1735 at the start of the week, but the upward momentum has faded. The market is reassessing the Fed’s path after the recent rate cut and comments from officials suggesting a possible pause to evaluate inflation dynamics.

Uncertainty is being amplified by delays in some US macro releases due to a temporary pause in federal operations: disruptions in labor-market and price statistics increase caution and push traders toward a more restrained view of further easing. In such periods, demand for the dollar often strengthens.

On the euro side, pressure also comes from its own factors: an upcoming ECB decision and updated guidance for the region’s economy, as well as political risks in certain euro-area countries that can weigh on investor sentiment. Overall, this raises the probability of a downward move in the pair.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1760, TP 1.1660

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 19 December 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00

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Gold enters the week of December 15–19, 2025 near record highs, with prices holding around $4,327 per ounce. The main support comes from expectations of lower US rates following the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut, as well as the market’s sensitivity to any signs of slowing growth. Demand is also reinforced by risk-off sentiment linked to geopolitical tensions and news about broader investor access to gold via funds in major markets.

For the week ahead, the key drivers are fresh US macro data and decisions from leading central banks. If US bond yields and the dollar keep easing, interest in gold is likely to remain strong. A restraining scenario would be the opposite: stronger US data that pushes the dollar and yields higher. In the base case, gold looks resilient, but headline-driven volatility may stay elevated.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00


#SP500: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040



US equities start the week with mixed sentiment: after sharp moves in some technology names, investors are becoming more selective, but the broader backdrop remains supportive. S&P 500 futures hover near 6,846, and the focus is on the rate path and the health of the US economy. The recent Fed rate cut helps expectations for lower financing costs and supports risk appetite.

This week’s spotlight is on a heavy central-bank calendar (including Japan, the UK, and the euro area) and key US releases (some statistics are published with delays), which can quickly shift positioning. A constructive scenario for the index is the absence of negative surprises on inflation and jobs alongside expectations of a more accommodative policy stance later on. Risks to the upside include a sudden deterioration in the external backdrop or renewed concerns about stretched valuations in parts of the market.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040


#BRENT: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40



Brent opens the week around $61.44 per barrel. In the near term, prices are supported by supply-disruption risks — notably around Venezuela, sanctions constraints, and isolated attacks on oil infrastructure. Such headlines can trigger quick spikes higher even when demand is not particularly strong.

However, fundamentally, the week’s dominant theme is excess supply and rising inventories. A number of international assessments and US outlooks point to a risk of market surplus in 2026 and downside pressure on prices if current production levels persist. In practice, this means rallies may more often meet selling interest, and the market could react sharply to any signals of weaker demand or higher supply. As a result, the baseline bias for the week is mildly negative, with volatility likely to remain elevated.

Trading recommendation: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for December 16, 2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 85000, SL 87300, TP 79500

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The situation for the analyzed asset continues to develop according to the previously outlined plan. It is worth recalling that a bearish impulse is likely unfolding, in which wave (iii) is presumably an extended one.

Within this extension, wave 4 has completed its development, taking the form of a contracting horizontal triangle, and the price is now moving downward, intending to form the next wave.

Potentially, the decline looks very promising and attractive for selling at current market levels. The expected target for this move lies around 80,000 and below.

Investment idea: SELL 85000, SL 87300, TP 79500.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Precious metals lead the way: silver, platinum, and palladium surge higher



On December 2, FreshForex analysts had already highlighted the high potential of the metals market — and the market quickly confirmed this scenario with a sharp rise in prices: silver (XAGUSD) +12.89%, platinum (XPTUSD) +9.03%, and palladium (XPDUSD) +8.75%. Our metals forecasts not only played out — this segment confidently outperformed many other asset classes. Investors are moving away from the dollar and government bonds into real assets amid expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Prices are also being fueled by news of supply deficits and rising industrial demand for these metals. Against this backdrop, interest in precious metals is growing among both retail and large institutional investors.

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Growth Drivers:

• Silver (XAGUSD) is rising due to a supply shortage: demand from the solar energy sector and electronics is increasing, while inventories are declining. For investors, silver is also a more affordable alternative to gold.
• Palladium (XPDUSD) is supported by limited supply and geopolitical risks: the market depends heavily on Russia and South Africa, while demand for palladium in automotive catalysts and electronics remains strong. As a result, even rumors of sanctions or export restrictions can sharply push prices higher.
• Platinum (XPTUSD) is gaining value amid mining disruptions in South Africa, which remains a key global supplier. At the same time, demand from industry and hydrogen-related projects keeps the market tight, meaning any news from the mining sector is quickly reflected in prices.

If a dovish Fed policy and a weak dollar persist, interest in precious metals as a “hedge against currency devaluation” is likely to remain high. Silver receives an additional boost from the “green” agenda — the development of solar energy and electric vehicles, where it is used in virtually every component.

Platinum and palladium continue to depend on a limited number of supplier countries, making any disruptions in mining or logistics powerful price triggers. In this environment, even minor news about production cuts or new restrictions can spark another wave of growth. As long as the market sees a supply deficit and no quick way to significantly increase output, the bullish scenario retains strong potential.

FreshForex analysts note that in the coming months, the performance of silver, platinum, and palladium will largely depend on the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory, the pace of the global “green” transition, and mining-related news from key regions — primarily South Africa and Russia. Investors are advised to maintain strict risk management and closely monitor the macroeconomic calendar.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 17, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is trading around 1.3410: overall uncertainty over US rates is limiting the dollar, but domestic risks for the pound are becoming more apparent. UK labor market data point to cooling conditions: unemployment is rising and wage growth is slowing. This strengthens expectations that the Bank of England may move toward cutting rates in the coming months.

Even if the market has partially priced in the probability of such a cut, any confirmation of a more accommodative course could limit demand for the pound. Investors are also closely watching the budget and fiscal agenda: higher borrowing costs and weak consumer demand increase the currency’s sensitivity to news and data. The market tends to reduce risk ahead of key statements from the regulator.

The picture for economic activity remains mixed: the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) shows moderate expansion, but growth momentum is not strong. Against this backdrop, the pound becomes more vulnerable to strong US data and to signals from the Bank of England, supporting a scenario of GBP/USD decline.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3410, SL 1.3430, TP 1.3320

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for December 18, 2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 84950, SL 87500, TP 79500

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The cryptocurrency remains under strong bearish pressure. An attempt to improve the situation brought no positive results. The sharply increased buying activity was immediately absorbed, and the price returned to the local low.

In the near term, we will likely see a continuation of the decline. This is driven by the development of the final wave (v) of the bearish impulse. As a result, the completion of this impulse is expected, followed by preparation for an upward move, which will most likely be corrective in nature.

Therefore, for now it is worth continuing to trade from the short side, holding previously opened short positions.

Investment idea: SELL 84950, SL 87500, TP 79500.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 19, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

08:30 EET. JPY - BOJ Press Conference

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is trading near 155.95 as attention stays focused on Japan’s policy outlook. The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 0.75% and signaled that further moves are possible if inflation and wage growth remain firm. Even if part of the decision had been priced in, the higher policy rate is generally supportive for the yen.

In the US, the dollar is weighed down by expectations of lower rates following the Fed’s December decision and the market response to inflation data. Slower year-on-year price growth reinforces the view that borrowing costs may be reduced further, while questions around data quality increase sensitivity to new releases and central bank communication.

Overall, the balance of factors favors gradual yen strengthening, so the base case is downside pressure on USD/JPY. Risks include a sudden rise in safe-haven demand for the dollar and softer Bank of Japan signals regarding the next hike.

Trading recommendation: SELL 155.95, SL 156.45, TP 154.45

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Energy market cools down: oil and gas under pressure



Over the past three months, global prices for oil (#BRENT/#WTI) and gas (#GAS) have declined noticeably. Benchmark oil grades Brent and WTI have lost around 11–12%, ending the year near multi-month lows. U.S. natural gas has also entered a correction after a strong rally at the start of the winter season.

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Factors Behind the Decline:

• #BRENT — U.S. production is at record levels, supplies from Brazil and other countries are rising, and some African oil remains unsold for extended periods. As a result, Brent struggles to stay above $60, with any price rebound quickly sold off.
• #WTI — Economic and fuel demand forecasts have weakened, while crude oil and fuel inventories continue to grow, making WTI more vulnerable to selling on pullbacks.
• #GAS — In autumn, gas prices surged on colder weather forecasts and record exports, but later forecasts turned milder, production stayed high, and inventories remained sufficient — leading to a price correction.

Brent and WTI are ending the year amid a clear supply surplus: record U.S. output and rising supplies from other regions prevent prices from holding above recent levels, while OPEC+ has not yet moved toward aggressive production cuts. This suggests that the risk of a gradual further decline in oil prices may persist into early next year.

The gas market follows the same logic: high production, well-filled storage facilities, and a relatively mild winter create room for prices to move lower after the recent rally. Altogether, this makes #BRENT, #WTI, and #GAS vulnerable to a continuation of the correction unless there is an unexpected surge in demand or a sharp supply disruption.

FreshForex analysts note that in the coming months, the price trajectory of oil (#Brent/#WTI) and natural gas (#GAS) will largely depend on whether the supply surplus persists, how the global economy develops, and whether expectations of a mild winter are confirmed. In such an environment, investors and traders are advised to maintain strict risk management and closely monitor news from the commodity markets.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 22, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is trading near 1.1720 at the start of the week, but demand for the US dollar is partly returning due to reduced liquidity ahead of the holidays and expectations around delayed US data releases. The market is assessing whether the Federal Reserve will pause after recent rate cuts: several officials note that further decisions require confirmation from inflation and demand indicators.

The euro is supported by the fact that the European Central Bank kept key rates unchanged and reaffirmed its medium-term inflation aim of around 2%. At the same time, the tone of recent communication suggests a more confident assessment of the euro area economy, which limits expectations for near-term easing and helps restrain pressure on the single currency.

However, the US remains the key driver in the coming days: strong growth and consumption data increase interest in dollar assets, while trade restrictions may keep inflation above target. If market expectations for the Fed shift toward a longer pause, the dollar could gain additional support and the pair may turn lower.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1715, SL 1.1745, TP 1.1625

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 26 December 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4397.16, SL 4387.16, TP 4427.16

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Gold starts the week near record highs: as of December 22, XAUUSD is hovering around 4397.16. Support comes from expectations of lower U.S. interest rates in 2026 and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and a softer U.S. dollar.

This week, interest in gold may strengthen if U.S. data on growth and inflation come in softer, and if headlines point to continued central-bank buying. On the other hand, year-end profit-taking and thin holiday liquidity may limit the upside.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4397.16, SL 4387.16, TP 4427.16


#SP500: BUY 6835, SL 6815, TP 6895



#SP500 enters the week near 6835 points as investors reassess the Fed’s 2026 rate path and aim for a calm year-end finish. Sentiment is also supported by renewed demand for large-cap stocks, which carry the biggest weight in the index.

With a shortened week, market reactions to U.S. releases can be sharper—especially GDP updates, corporate orders, and consumer confidence. Strong figures would support revenue expectations, while softer data could reinforce bets on policy easing, which often also supports equities.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6835, SL 6815, TP 6895


#BRENT: SELL 60.93, SL 61.43, TP 59.43



#BRENT starts the week around 60.93 per barrel. In the short term, supply-risk headlines may provide support, but the market is still focused on the possibility of oversupply in 2026 and rising output from producers outside coordinated agreements.

Pressure may increase if new assessments confirm softer demand and elevated inventories. At the same time, any fresh geopolitical developments can trigger sharp but brief spikes, so the key driver remains the broader supply-demand balance.

Trading recommendation: SELL 60.93, SL 61.43, TP 59.43

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